Wilma?

[pinkrose]

and this scares the fool out of me.

It is scary.
The weather guys here are talking that if that trough doesn't pick her up, she'll come up here. I'm doubting that will happen though.

 

[SpongeScott]

Start getting your things together, just in case. I live out of plastic bins from Wal-Mart. My photos, important papers, clothes..........they all stack neatly. And they stay there year round, since it seems we have to leave, or have to be ready to leave a couple times a year.
Stay Safe.

I've got all that stuff in a file. I hope I don't have to touch it. We'll know a lot more by tomorrow this time.

 

[darthdarrel]

...wilma Weakens Slightly To A Category Four Hurricane...could
Re-intensify On Thursday...

Wilma Is Moving Toward The West-northwest Near 8 Mph...13 Km/hr...
With Some Wobbles Of The Eye. A Turn Toward The Northwest Is
Expected On Thursday.

Maximum Sustained Winds Are Near 155 Mph...250 Km/hr...with Higher
Gusts. Wilma Is A Category Four Hurricane On The Saffir-simpson
Scale. Fluctuations In Intensity Are Common In Hurricanes Of This
Intensity...and Are Likely During The Next 24 Hours. Wilma Could
Regain Category Five Intensity On Thursday.

Hmm maybe it is the time you posted this, but I was just watching the news and they said it is still a cat 5 hurricane with sustained winds of 165 miles an hour with gusts up to 200 miles an hour. Everyone in The Yucatan Penninsula and Florida my prayers are with you!

 

[pinkrose]

I've got all that stuff in a file. I hope I don't have to touch it. We'll know a lot more by tomorrow this time.

I hope you don't either. Saying a prayer for you guys.:wave:

 

[pinkrose]

Hmm maybe it is the time you posted this, but I was just watching the news and they said it is still a cat 5 hurricane with sustained winds of 165 miles an hour with gusts up to 200 miles an hour. Everyone in The Yucatan Penninsula and Florida my prayers are with you!

This was the 11pm update from the NHC.

 

[pinkrose]

Here's the 11pm discussion...

HURRICANE WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT WED OCT 19 2005

EARLIER REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THAT WILMA HAD A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 892 MB INSIDE THE 4 N
MI WIDE EYE...ALONG WITH 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 140-150 KT.
SINCE THAT TIME...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE EYE HAS BECOME
CLOUD-FILLED. ADDITIONALLY...A 00Z SSM/I OVERPASS SHOWS THAT THE
INNER EYEWALL HAS WEAKENED AS A 40 N MI WIDE OUTER EYEWALL BECOMES
BETTER DEFINED. BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS DECREASED
TO 135 KT. THE NEXT AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE WILMA
AROUND 05Z-06Z.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A VERY WOBBLY 300/7. IN THE SHORT TERM...A
LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF WILMA SHOULD STEER THE HURRICANE ON A
GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD TRACK TOWARD THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. AFTER
24-36 HR...THE RIDGE SHOULD WEAKEN AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...FOLLOWED BY THE DEVELOPMENT OF
A POWERFUL DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U. S.. THE FIRST
SHORTWAVE SHOULD ALLOW WILMA TO TURN NORTHWARD...WHILE THE STRONGER
TROUGH SHOULD EVENTUALLY RECURVE THE STORM INTO THE WESTERLIES.
THE LATEST RUNS OF THE GFDL AND GFS HAVE RETURNED TO THEIR EARLIER
NO-STALL RECURVATURE SCENARIO...THUS INCREASING THE AGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE MODELS THROUGH 72-96 HR. HOWEVER...THE ENTIRE SUITE OF
GUIDANCE IS SLOWER FOR THE FIRST 96 HR THAN THE EARLIER RUNS. THE
NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT FOR THE FIRST 48
HR...THEN IS SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FROM 48-96 HR.
HOWEVER...EVEN THIS SLOWER FORECAST IS FASTER THAN THE GUIDANCE.
IT SHOULD ALSO BE NOTED THAT THE TRACK IS ALONG THE RIGHT SIDE OF
THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE MODEL
CONSENSUS.

WILMA SHOULD UNDERGO AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE DURING THE NEXT
12-24 HR. THE FIRST 36 HR OF THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON
THE PREMISE THAT WILMA WILL RE-INTENSIFY WHEN THE CYCLE IS OVER.
THERE IS A CHANCE WILMA COULD WEAKEN MORE THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST
BEFORE THE EYEWALL CYCLE ENDS. THE SHIPS MODEL IS FORECASTING A
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN VERTICAL SHEAR ONCE WILMA REACHES THE THE
GULF OF MEXICO. THAT COMBINED WITH COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
SHOULD CAUSE A GRADUAL WEAKENING. THAT BEING SAID...WILMA IS STILL
EXPECTED TO REACH FLORIDA AS A MAJOR HURRICANE. AFTER PASSAGE OVER
FLORIDA...WILMA SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN DUE TO SHEAR AND EVEN
COOLER WATER. THERE ARE TWO POSSIBILITIES THAT COULD MAKE LARGE
DIFFERENCES IN THE INTENSITY OF WILMA. THE FIRST IS THE
POSSIBILITY OF LANDFALL OVER YUCATAN OR THE INTERACTION WITH THE
PENINSULA IN THE FORECAST CLOSE APPROACH. A LANDFALL WOULD RESULT
IN A WEAKER STORM...WHILE INTERACTION COULD WEAKEN THE SYSTEM MORE
THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. THE SECOND IS POSSIBLE EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION AND PHASING WITH THE DEEP TROUGH AFTER 96 HR. SHOULD
THIS HAPPEN...WILMA COULD BECOME A POWERFUL STORM EITHER OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC OR THE NORTHEASTERN U. S..

FORECASTER BEVEN

 

[darthdarrel]

This was the 11pm update from the NHC.

LOL These news channels should get their facts straight!

 

[SpongeScott]

and the new map.

 

[pinkrose]

LOL These news channels should get their facts straight!

Our local ABC weather guy just said cat. 5 also. *shrugs* 155 mph is cat 5, I don't know why the NHC said that then. She'll be going through an ERC, so that will weaken her a bit (though perhaps only temp.).

 

[Debbie]

I've got all that stuff in a file. I hope I don't have to touch it. We'll know a lot more by tomorrow this time.

I'll be thinking of you and all of our forum friends today. I hate to say it, but it looks like by the time I get home this evening; you'll be getting ready to leave.
Everyone, stay safe, keep a cool head, and don't try to be a hard-head and ride out a storm with 145mph winds, and gosh only knows storm surge. The death count here is still rising........and NOTHING is back to normal

 

[Erika]

Take care, everyone... and CapnStinxy, good luck with the kitties. I know from experience that traveling long distance with cats is a bit less than fun (we have 3).

Everyone stay safe :wave:

 

[mkt]

Everyone Panic!

WE'RE ALL GOING TO DIE!!

THERE IS A NATIONAL SHORTAGE of
FREAKING OUT!!!

die

 

[AliciaLuvzDizne]

and the new map.

now i really dont know what to do...
It looks like we'll be affected up here...but my mother will be in VA and I'll be in FL. So Grandma will be home alone.

Moms not going to cancel HER trip...think I should cancel mine? Do we think it will be nasty by the time it gets up here? (CT)

Everyone stay safe...get out even if you're only the slightest bit nervous, no use taking a chance...

 

[goofybob]

It Figures!

We're leaving on Saturday night on a late flight and it looks as if we'll beat the winds coming in to MCO, After having 10 days of torrid driving rain in Mass, it looks as if I'll have to survive trudging through the MK in the high winds and rain on Sunday. UGH !! Whenever we go to WDW we always try to go in Oct as it's less crowded, It's been 3 years now and I'm not going to let a little rain and wind ruin my time. So Wilma look out here comes Fred!

 

[SpongeScott]

now i really dont know what to do...
It looks like we'll be affected up here...but my mother will be in VA and I'll be in FL. So Grandma will be home alone.

Moms not going to cancel HER trip...think I should cancel mine? Do we think it will be nasty by the time it gets up here? (CT)

Everyone stay safe...get out even if you're only the slightest bit nervous, no use taking a chance...

i wouldn't cancel. By the time it reaches NE, it looks like it will be a rainmaker, with TS force winds offshore.

 

[TimeTrip]

Fine, you don't think it's funny.

What I find bothersome is that people all over the country, many of whom have lived their whole lives in places that have never felt a hurricane, are generating quite a lot of (ultimately) useless foaming and fear-mongering. It's not just this board, but - seemingly - everywhere I turn across the internet. It's as if everyone who watched CNN storm coverage or perused the appalling "Weather Underground" site is suddenly an expert. The immediate manefestation of that dubious expertise is, in the main, FREAKING OUT.

If you look at the NOAA/NHC's forecast map, and dotted line at the center of the much-discussed cone of uncertainty, it intersects the west coast of Florida at Naples. I live a scant 35 miles north of that intersection, so it doesn't take much drift for me and most everyone I know to really be in the soup. If it makes landfall anywhere between here and Punta Gorda, there's a good chance my home could be flooded and badly damaged. If it stays to the south...well, my house took a beating from Charley and stayed in one piece, so I'd be less concerned.

I'm about as prepared as I'm going to be. I've lived here long enough to have honed my plans to the least bad of the available alternatives. If the storm is coming, it's coming, and there's nothing I can do to change that. I can take prudent steps to minimize the risk to my own life, that of my pets, and damage to my property, but there are no guarantees. To (figuratively) flail around accomplishes exactly nothing but spreading a lot of bum information.

I agree with the general sentiment of this post. However, this weather board was specifically created last year during the hurricane season because (i think) the general boards were getting flooded with storm information. If people want to vent about a storm no matter what the situation, this is the right place for it. You just need to keep in mind that people will get worked up over hurricanes whether you think they should be worked up or not.

 

[Eeyore]

If people want to vent about a storm no matter what the situation, this is the right place for it. You just need to keep in mind that people will get worked up over hurricanes whether you think they should be worked up or not.

Very well put, thank you. The bottomline is that this is the weather board, hurricanes are weather, end of story. I hope that everyone can continue to keep this thread on topic from here on out. :wave:

 

[Tim G]

I'm guessing you are talking about me, Corrus, and SpongeScott for the main part. Two of these people are in the possible path of this storm. As I said before, I posted this as information, as has everyone else. Who said that anything posted here is going to make an impact on how the FL. west coast is going to prepare or evacuate? We never said that. Actually, I'm not even going to try and explain to you why it's posted.


And, for your info... I'm not going to the NHC or that other site you posted, so don't assume things, ok.

You don't have to Belle... I understand... :kiss:

 

[unkadug]

I hope everyone here takes care of themselves during this (hopefully the last for the season) hurricane, and that it lessens in strength so as to do mimimal damage to property. :wave:

 

[Maria]

Hi! *waves* I am waiting for Wilma!! It´s humongous and moves extremely slow (right now only at 6 kms per hour) so it´s going to be very destructive. The eye only is 65 kms wide! and the whole thing is more than 500 kms wide! If that is not impressive I don´t know what is - we had not seen one like this, and it formed so quickly! We are keeping our fingers crossed that it doesn´t damage much in Cancun and the nearby islands. The hotel zones are already evacuated, shelters are ready too and we are prepared and sick of hurricanes this year!
Please, spare a prayer for all of us in the path of Wilma. Thank you!