Wilma?

[pinkrose]

Fine, you don't think it's funny.

What I find bothersome is that people all over the country, many of whom have lived their whole lives in places that have never felt a hurricane, are generating quite a lot of (ultimately) useless foaming and fear-mongering. It's not just this board, but - seemingly - everywhere I turn across the internet. It's as if everyone who watched CNN storm coverage or perused the appalling "Weather Underground" site is suddenly an expert. The immediate manefestation of that dubious expertise is, in the main, FREAKING OUT.

A good many people on this board who post in these hurricane threads have been affected by the storms. And no one here ever said they are an expert.

We're not "freaking out" either. It's called "informing and being informed".

 

[HauntedPirate]

Some posters here don't want to get out? Fine, don't. We're simply imploring people to not stay if they don't have to. After seeing what's happened in the Gulf Coast region and Florida over the past 18 months, what possible reason could you have for staying, after seeing the loss of life and property?

Latest update: (She's a Cat5, read on)

000
WTNT34 KNHC 191158
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE WILMA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 16A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM EDT WED OCT 19 2005

...WILMA MAINTAINING CATEGORY FIVE STATUS...RECORD PRESSURE
CONFIRMED BY AIRCRAFT CREW...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA FROM CABO CATOCHE TO PUNTA GRUESA.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT IN CUBA FOR THE PROVINCES OF
MATANZAS WESTWARD THROUGH PINAR DEL RIO...AND FOR THE ISLE OF
YOUTH. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HONDURAS FROM THE
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO CABO CAMARON.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

ALL INTERESTS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE WILMA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 8 AM EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.8 WEST OR ABOUT 340 MILES...
550 KM...SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO.

WILMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 175 MPH...280 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WILMA IS A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE
ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE COMMON
IN HURRICANES THIS INTENSE AND ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES... 30 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 160 MILES...260 KM.

BASED ON DROPSONDE AND FLIGHT-LEVEL DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE PLANE
JUST RETURNING FROM ITS MISSION IN WILMA...THE MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 882 MB...26.05 INCHES. THIS IS THE
LOWEST PRESSURE ON RECORD FOR A HURRICANE IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN.

WILMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 15
INCHES...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS NEAR 25 INCHES IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN
ACROSS CUBA THROUGH FRIDAY. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5
TO 10 INCHES...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...SWAN ISLAND...AND JAMAICA THROUGH
THURSDAY. STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES...WITH
ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE FROM HONDURAS
NORTHWARD TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO THROUGH THURSDAY.

REPEATING THE 8 AM EDT POSITION...17.2 N... 82.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...175
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 882 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM EDT.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN


$$

 

[jcat2312]

I just wanted to say good luck to everyone in Florida...

 

[Tim G]

Tourists Ordered From Keys As Category 5 Wilma Nears Florida

PUNTA GORDA, Fla. Visitors were ordered out of the Florida Keys on Wednesday as Hurricane Wilma exploded into the most intense Atlantic hurricane on record, with meteorologists warning that it could maintain devastating power as it crossed Florida from the Gulf Coast to the Atlantic this weekend.

Wilma's top sustained winds reached 175 mph early Wednesday in the most rapid strengthening ever recorded in a hurricane, said Hugh Cobb, a meteorologist at the National Hurricane Center in Miami. At the same time Tuesday, Wilma was only a tropical storm with winds of 70 mph.

Hurricane Wilma at 10:45am on Wednesday, October 19.

Its confirmed pressure readings Wednesday morning dropped to 882 millibars, the lowest minimum pressure ever measured in a hurricane in the Atlantic basin, according to the hurricane center.

Forecasters said Wilma was stronger than the devastating Labor Day hurricane that hit the Florida Keys in 1935, the strongest Atlantic hurricane to make landfall on record.

But Wilma wasn't expected to keep its record strength for long, as higher disruptive atmospheric winds in the Gulf of Mexico around the hurricane should weaken it before landfall, Cobb said.
Gulf water temperatures are about 1 or 2 degrees lower than those in the Caribbean, which should inhibit its strength more, he added.


It is still forecast to be a potentially devastating Category 3 or 4 hurricane at landfall, although experts acknowledge they have little skill in making strength forecasts.

Wilma's potential path could threaten coastal areas in southwestern Florida such as Punta Gorda that were hit by Hurricane Charley, a Category 4 storm that was the first of seven hurricanes to hit Florida or pass nearby since last year. Charley struck on Aug. 13, 2004.

Paul Malbon anxiously watched Wilma's progress from the five-story Best Western waterfront hotel he owns and runs in Fort Myers Beach.
Its ground floor had sand and walls of water shoved in by Charley's storm surge last year, but everything was quickly repaired.

"I don't wish bad luck on anybody else but I hope it doesn't come here," he said Wednesday.

When asked whether he thought the area might get slammed again, he replied: "Only the man upstairs knows the answer to that one. It don't look good at the moment."

Wilma was also expected to move across the peninsula quickly, which means it wouldn't weaken much over land, Cobb said. That means it's possible Atlantic coast cities such as Miami, Fort Lauderdale and West Palm Beach could also be hit by winds nearly as strong as the west coast, he said.

Wilma also grew into a larger storm Wednesday, with hurricane-force winds stretching out up to 50 miles from its center, up from 15 miles earlier in the day.

The hurricanes that have hit Florida caused damage estimated at more than $20 billion and killing nearly 150 people.

Monroe County officials ordered visitors out of the Florida Keys starting at noon Wednesday. Tourists are generally told to leave ahead of others on the lengthy chain of islands connected by one highway.

Collier County officials haven't ordered anyone to leave the Naples area, but "we are telling those folks who are more comfortable evacuating to go ahead. If they wait there could be road congestion and other problems," said Jaime Sarbagh, a county emergency management spokeswoman.

In Punta Gorda, some homes and businesses remain boarded up from Charley. More than 6,800 federal trailers and mobile homes remain scattered around the state as temporary housing from the six storms, with 934 in Charlotte County alone.

The state routinely replenishes emergency supplies of water, food and ice at staging points across Florida, so no additional action is needed, emergency management spokesman Mike Stone said. Florida supermarkets and home repair chains also stocked extra food, ice and other supplies ahead of an expected onslaught in stores.

At 11 a.m. Wednesday, Wilma was centered about 325 miles southeast of Cozumel, Mexico, and about 500 miles south of Key West. It was moving west-northwest near 7 mph, forecasters said.

Forecasts from the National Hurricane Center in Miami show Wilma could hit western Cuba or the Yucatan Peninsula before heading into the Gulf of Mexico by Friday.

Jamaica, Cuba, Nicaragua and Honduras are getting heavy rain bands for Wilma. Computer models show Wilma taking a sharp turn toward Florida and picking up forward speed over the weekend as it gets caught in the jet stream, strong prevailing winds that generally blow toward the east, forecasters said.

Louisiana, Texas and Mississippi appeared out of Wilma's path, sparing them more devastation.

Max Mayfield, director of the hurricane center, cautioned southern Florida residents of a dangerous storm surge should Wilma hit the peninsula.

To avoid potential flooding from Lake Okeechobee, water managers began emptying Palm Beach County canals on Tuesday. But officials said previous hurricane preparations and dry weather in the past two weeks has left ample room for additional waters in the lake.

Ten to 15 inches of rain was expected in mountainous terrain in Cuba, with some areas getting up to 25 inches. Four to 12 inches was expected in the Caymans, Honduras, Jamaica and the Yucatan Peninsula.

Wilma became this season's 12th hurricane on Tuesday, tying the record for most hurricanes in an Atlantic hurricane season since record-keeping began in 1851. It is also the 21st named storm, tying the record set in 1933.

 

[Emerald Rose]

I also want to say Good Luck to everyone who could be affected by Wilma. Hope this hurricane is not that bad.

 

[Tim G]

Fine, you don't think it's funny.

What I find bothersome is that people all over the country, many of whom have lived their whole lives in places that have never felt a hurricane, are generating quite a lot of (ultimately) useless foaming and fear-mongering. It's not just this board, but - seemingly - everywhere I turn across the internet. It's as if everyone who watched CNN storm coverage or perused the appalling "Weather Underground" site is suddenly an expert. The immediate manefestation of that dubious expertise is, in the main, FREAKING OUT.

If you look at the NOAA/NHC's forecast map, and dotted line at the center of the much-discussed cone of uncertainty, it intersects the west coast of Florida at Naples. I live a scant 35 miles north of that intersection, so it doesn't take much drift for me and most everyone I know to really be in the soup. If it makes landfall anywhere between here and Punta Gorda, there's a good chance my home could be flooded and badly damaged. If it stays to the south...well, my house took a beating from Charley and stayed in one piece, so I'd be less concerned.

I'm about as prepared as I'm going to be. I've lived here long enough to have honed my plans to the least bad of the available alternatives. If the storm is coming, it's coming, and there's nothing I can do to change that. I can take prudent steps to minimize the risk to my own life, that of my pets, and damage to my property, but there are no guarantees. To (figuratively) flail around accomplishes exactly nothing but spreading a lot of bum information.

Everyone Panic!

WE'RE ALL GOING TO DIE!!

1st. You know NOTHING about me or what I've been gone through...

I had Charley over my head... and even more in the years before... so
Don't tell me, what I lived through...

2nd. You shouldn't make fun of things other people are scared of...
If you do... you just offending people...

If you can't things seriously in the weather forum, don't reply, or better don't read them... but leave the so called funny remarks...

And you wouldn't want to offend me...

 

[Tim G]

To (figuratively) flail around accomplishes exactly nothing but spreading a lot of bum information.

If you should have put your reading glasses on, and have read better...


And YES I know there's always a wobble in the cone... but not a 200 mile wobble...

But here's your precious map... notice the lines... unless you better than the National Hurricane center... You should leave your remarks...

 

[Hakunamatata]

If you're in Orlando and south, either batten down the hatches or start getting out of town now.

I don't see any chance this is going to weaken once it moves into the warmer Gulf waters. Better to get out now than take a chance.

Rita went from a 5 to a 3 in 24 hours. It will weaken to a certain extent.

 

[DisneyFanJen]

Wilma's made the news here in the UK now and based on the current info it looks like there's not much chance of it missing FL at this point.

Good luck out there guys. *fingers crossed*

 

[CapnStinxy]

1st. You know NOTHING about me or what I've been gone through...

No, I don't. As you posted nothing in this thread prior to me, I don't see where anything I said reflects on you.

I had Charley over my head... and even more in the years before... so don't tell me, what I lived through...

Um, likewise. I wasn't in the eye, but the weather station half a mile south of me registered a 95 knot sustained wind before being torn from its anchor, so I saw something. I also have a picture of the house three doors down from me where the roof, trusses and all, came off and landed in the street.

2nd. You shouldn't make fun of things other people are scared of... If you do... you just offending people...

I was mocking the stridency with which some people are clipping and reposting NHC advisories and forecasts. People here and elsewhere claim they are doing so to keep people informed, or help them prepare. I can maybe see the first part, if one lives somewhere that doesn't encounter hurricanes, where information of this type is scarce, it is probably informative. But helping in preparation? I was out today, making my last minute preparations. Half the gas stations in the area are dry, most grocery stores are stripped of water, canned goods, and non-perishable food, and the evacuation exodus has already started. The local television stations have been reporting almost nothing but this storm since Sunday. Area residents are taking this storm very seriously.

Call me whatever you will for it, but I don't believe anything posted in a forum devoted to Walt Disney World is going to have an impact on how people on the Florida west coast prepare or evacuate. If it helps people judge the impact of the weather on and make informed decisions about their WDW vacations in the coming days, then that's good. But it doesn't need to be made into anything more than that. Repeating similar information about the scope and danger of this storm only serves, in my opinion, to make everyone more agitated.

If you can't things seriously in the weather forum, don't reply, or better don't read them... but leave the so called funny remarks...

I take the subject very seriously. I have my own plans to evacuate, I have a motel room reserved, and I'm waiting another 24 hours to see if it will be best to go or stay. You see, I have four cats, so finding lodging and then evacuating to it is a more complicated task. The trip won't be easy or pleasant for them, so if I can safely remain at home, I will. Their safety comes first, so if I have any question about it, then I will be leaving.

 

[Tim G]

NeverTheLess...

It's very offending, to make fun of other people's fear...

 

[pinkrose]

I was mocking the stridency with which some people are clipping and reposting NHC advisories and forecasts. People here and elsewhere claim they are doing so to keep people informed, or help them prepare. I can maybe see the first part, if one lives somewhere that doesn't encounter hurricanes, where information of this type is scarce, it is probably informative. But helping in preparation? I was out today, making my last minute preparations. Half the gas stations in the area are dry, most grocery stores are stripped of water, canned goods, and non-perishable food, and the evacuation exodus has already started. The local television stations have been reporting almost nothing but this storm since Sunday. Area residents are taking this storm very seriously.

Call me whatever you will for it, but I don't believe anything posted in a forum devoted to Walt Disney World is going to have an impact on how people on the Florida west coast prepare or evacuate. If it helps people judge the impact of the weather on and make informed decisions about their WDW vacations in the coming days, then that's good. But it doesn't need to be made into anything more than that. Repeating similar information about the scope and danger of this storm only serves, in my opinion, to make everyone more agitated.

I'm guessing you are talking about me, Corrus, and SpongeScott for the main part. Two of these people are in the possible path of this storm. As I said before, I posted this as information, as has everyone else. Who said that anything posted here is going to make an impact on how the FL. west coast is going to prepare or evacuate? We never said that. Actually, I'm not even going to try and explain to you why it's posted.


And, for your info... I'm not going to the NHC or that other site you posted, so don't assume things, ok.

 

[CapnStinxy]

It's very offending, to make fun of other people's fear...

If one, or one's friends or family, may be impacted by this storm, then the fear is understandable. If not...then I might humbly suggest that the mental energy consumed by that fear be directed into something more productive. No matter where this storm ultimately goes, even if it never enters the U.S., many, many people will have terrible misery visited on them for years to come. Even if its "just" your prayers, please consider directing that mental energy into doing something helpful.

 

[Tim G]

Stop trying to get tha last word on this...

You're getting very, very annoying!!!


I've seen people being removed for less...

 

[SpongeScott]

If one, or one's friends or family, may be impacted by this storm, then the fear is understandable. If not...then I might humbly suggest that the mental energy consumed by that fear be directed into something more productive. No matter where this storm ultimately goes, even if it never enters the U.S., many, many people will have terrible misery visited on them for years to come. Even if its "just" your prayers, please consider directing that mental energy into doing something helpful.

Seeing how I am still in the cone of possibility with this storm, I wish to stay informed as much as I can. I can get information, I post information, I find information here that I don't find on my own. I don't think there is a fear epidemic here, but a matter of concern. Even people not close to this storm want to know because of FRIENDS that are close to it.

I'm really not sure what your exact problem is with this, but please take it elsewhere. You are annoying and a nuisance right now to those of us who want info on the storm.

And, your avatar offends me. Political statements are not allowed on the forum and your degrading of an elected official is bothersome.

Have a MAGICAL day.

 

[Cliffordsmon]

I am presently sitting on the 5th floor Yacht Club wondering if I will be able to catch my flight home Sunday and I find Corrus, Sprongscott and Pinkrose extremely helpful with their posts and maps. I don't have to spend time in my room waiting for weather updates and news or spend valuable Disney time hunting for information. They supply it all in one easy place. Thank you and keep it up!

 

[pinkrose]

I am presently sitting on the 5th floor Yacht Club wondering if I will be able to catch my flight home Sunday and I find Corrus, Sprongscott and Pinkrose extremely helpful with their posts and maps. I don't have to spend time in my room waiting for weather updates and news or spend valuable Disney time hunting for information. They supply it all in one easy place. Thank you and keep it up!

Thank you Have a nice time at WDW!:wave:

Looks like they don't know what she'll do.....

HURRICANE WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT WED OCT 19 2005

AGREEMENT AMONG THE TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS...WHICH HAD BEEN VERY GOOD
OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...HAS COMPLETELY COLLAPSED TODAY. THE
06Z RUNS OF THE GFS...GFDL...AND NOGAPS MODELS ACCELERATED WILMA
RAPIDLY TOWARD NEW ENGLAND UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ALL THREE OF THESE
MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF OF THIS SOLUTION...WITH THE GFDL SHOWING AN
EXTREME CHANGE...WITH ITS 5-DAY POSITION SHIFTING A MERE 1650 NMI
FROM ITS PREVIOUS POSITION IN MAINE TO THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA.
THERE IS ALMOST AS MUCH SPREAD IN THE 5-DAY POSITIONS OF THE 12Z
GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...WHICH RANGE FROM THE YUCATAN TO WELL EAST OF
THE DELMARVA PENINSULA. WHAT THIS ILLUSTRATES IS THE EXTREME
SENSITIVITY OF WILMA'S FUTURE TRACK TO ITS INTERACTION WITH THE
GREAT LAKES LOW. OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...WILMA HAS BEEN
MOVING SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OR SOUTH OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE...AND
THE LEFT-MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS ARE NOW SHOWING WILMA
DELAYING OR MISSING THE CONNECTION WITH THE LOW. I HAVE SLOWED THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST JUST A LITTLE BIT AT THIS TIME...BUT IF WILMA
CONTINUES TO MOVE MORE TO THE LEFT THAN EXPECTED...SUBSTANTIAL
CHANGES TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MAY HAVE TO BE MADE DOWN THE LINE.
NEEDLESS TO SAY...CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK...ESPECIALLY THE
TIMING...HAS DECREASED CONSIDERABLY.

 

[SpongeScott]

AGREEMENT AMONG THE TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS...WHICH HAD BEEN VERY GOOD OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...HAS COMPLETELY COLLAPSED TODAY. I HAVE SLOWED THE OFFICIAL FORECAST JUST A LITTLE BIT AT THIS TIME...BUT IF WILMA CONTINUES TO MOVE MORE TO THE LEFT THAN EXPECTED...SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MAY HAVE TO BE MADE DOWN THE LINE. NEEDLESS TO SAY...CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK...ESPECIALLY THE TIMING...HAS DECREASED CONSIDERABLY.

and this scares the fool out of me.

 

[pinkrose]

...wilma Weakens Slightly To A Category Four Hurricane...could
Re-intensify On Thursday...

Wilma Is Moving Toward The West-northwest Near 8 Mph...13 Km/hr...
With Some Wobbles Of The Eye. A Turn Toward The Northwest Is
Expected On Thursday.

Maximum Sustained Winds Are Near 155 Mph...250 Km/hr...with Higher
Gusts. Wilma Is A Category Four Hurricane On The Saffir-simpson
Scale. Fluctuations In Intensity Are Common In Hurricanes Of This
Intensity...and Are Likely During The Next 24 Hours. Wilma Could
Regain Category Five Intensity On Thursday.

 

[Debbie]

and this scares the fool out of me.

Start getting your things together, just in case. I live out of plastic bins from Wal-Mart. My photos, important papers, clothes..........they all stack neatly. And they stay there year round, since it seems we have to leave, or have to be ready to leave a couple times a year.
Stay Safe.