Wilma?

[pinkrose]

Gonna have to watch this one....

WTNT44 KNHC 162038
TCDAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-FOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SUN OCT 16 2005

DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS NOT STRENGTHENED. INDEED...THEY HAVE YET
TO FIND ANY FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS HIGHER THAN 31 KT...WHICH ONLY
SUPPORTS 25 KT AT THE SURFACE. IN THE INTEREST OF CONTINUITY
HOWEVER...I WILL ASSUME THAT SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS EXIST SOMEWHERE
THE AIRCRAFT HASN'T YET SAMPLED. WHILE CONDITIONS ALOFT AND AT THE
SURFACE ARE VERY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN
REMAINS DOMINATED BY OUTER BANDS WITH RELATIVELY LITTLE ACTIVITY
NEAR THE CORE. FURTHERMORE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES DRY
MID-LEVEL AIR HAS BEEN PUSHING SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE CENTER ALONG
THE EASTERN SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. THESE
INHIBITING FACTORS ARE EXPECTED TO BE TEMPORARY...HOWEVER. THE
GFDL IS STILL CALLING FOR THE CYCLONE TO REACH MAJOR HURRICANE
STATUS IN TWO TO THREE DAYS...WITH THE SHIPS MODEL CALLING FOR MORE
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST...SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE
SHIPS GUIDANCE...IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
THE MOTION CONTINUES TO BE SOMEWHAT ERRATIC. EARLIER THE DEPRESSION
WAS DRIFTING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD..BUT NOW THE MOTION APPEARS TO BE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. A MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE IS BYPASSING THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW SOME RIDGING TO DEVELOP
NORTH OF THE CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CONSEQUENTLY...A TURN
BACK TO THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST IS ANTICIPATED. THERE HAS BEEN A
SIGNIFICANT WESTWARD SHIFT IN VIRTUALLY ALL OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS...GFDL...UKMET...
NOGAPS...AND CANADIAN MODELS...WITH ONLY THE ECMWF RELATIVELY
UNMOVED. GENERALLY SPEAKING...THESE MODELS SHOW LESS EROSION OF THE
RIDGE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO THAN IN EARLIER RUNS...AND HAVE A MORE
ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES IN THE 3 TO 5 DAY TIME
FRAME. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED WESTWARD...AND IS
CLOSE TO THE GFDL...WITH THE UKMET...GFS...AND NOGAPS CONSIDERABLY
FARTHER WEST.


FORECASTER FRANKLIN

 

[Tim G]

SHOOT !!!

 

[pinkrose]

Hey Corrus! :wave:

 

[pinkrose]

 

[Tim G]

Hi Belle...

 

[Tim G]

Here's the possible ...

 

[WDWScottieBoy]

I'm guessing the rain that's in our forecast for this coming weekend will be because of Wilma. And if this one comes to Orlando, I'm going to be upset. I'm actually going home this weekend and still want to see what it's like to be in a little hurricane. (And don't take that the wrong way. I've already had effects from Katrina and Ophelia)

Also, if there is one more named storm after this one, it'll be a record setting year. And the next name (let's hope we don't have another) will be Alpha as it goes to the Greek alphabet now.

 

[Cliffordsmon]

Our local weatherman said that landfall would be somewhere between Mobile and Key West in 6 to 7 days. I don't know if I should believe them or not. It really won't effect our trip until the weekend but it looks like it may dampen our departure Sunday. I hope it just fizzles in the Gulf!!!

 

[Erika]

Crikey... I hope it fizzles out before it can do any real damage.

 

[pinkrose]

Also, if there is one more named storm after this one, it'll be a record setting year. And the next name (let's hope we don't have another) will be Alpha as it goes to the Greek alphabet now.

This has already been a record setting year.

 

[SpongeScott]

i'll pass on the pink/fuschia track line.

 

[arsonheart]

OMG I can not belive this could ruin my whole vacation. I'm going to Orlando on thursday this is just so sad.

 

[SpongeScott]

oh crap...

 

[WDWScottieBoy]

Looks like I'll be heading out of town just in time. Now I hope this won't ruin my flight back on Sunday night!

And looking at that again...looks like I might get to be in my first hurricane come next week.

 

[NemoRocks78]

oh crap...

:fork:

 

[PixiePower]

Its me...its all my fault! Last year when I lived full time in FL we got nailed all the time. I move to TX and wham here we go! So now I am heading back to FL for a well deserved vacation and here comes Wilma!

My parents and DH are getting ready to start sending me on my own vacations so I won"t ruin theirs with the bad weather I bring into town with me!

Keeping my fingers crossed that this one stays away from SW FL and WDW!

 

[Erika]

Keeping my fingers crossed that this one stays away from SW FL and WDW!

Let's expand that to EVERYWHERE!

... that's too much to ask, I'm sure, so here's hoping it doesn't get very strong.

 

[SpongeScott]

 

[mousermerf]

I don't take anything seriously beyond a 2 day warning. The trackers have made mistakes many times before - so i'm not too worried at the moment.

 

[pinkrose]

Wtnt44 Knhc 180842
Tcdat4
Tropical Storm Wilma Discussion Number 11
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl
5 Am Edt Tue Oct 18 2005

There Are Several Indicators Suggesting That Wilma Is Strengthening.
The Pressure Has Fallen To 982 Mb. The Cloud Pattern Consists Of
Very Deep Convection Near The Center With Banding Features...and
The Outflow Has Continued To Become More Symmetrical. T-numbers
From Tafb And Sab Are 4.0 On The Dvorak Scale...suggesting That
Wilma Is A Hurricane. In Addition...two Microwave Passages From
Different Satellites Show An Eye Feature. However...wind
Observations From The Air Force Plane Do Not Support Winds Higher
Than 60 Knots At This Time. Given The Conditions Of Light Shear And
Very Warm Ocean...strenghtening Is Indicated. The Official
Intensity Forecast Is Between The Gfdl And The Ships Models. Wilma
Is Expected To Become An Intense Hurricane In The Northwestern
Caribean Sea...typical Of Those Hurricanes Which Commonly Occurred
In October During The 30's 40's And 50's. This Is Nothing New.

Wilma Has Barely Moved For The Past Several Hours. Despite Models
Showing A Weakening Of The Anticylone Over The Gulf Of Mexico...
This Feature Is Still There And Strong...blocking The Motion Of
Wilma. It Is Still Fresh In My Memory That...in 1998 With A Similar
Steering Pattern...all Models Moved Hurricane Mitch Northward And
The Hurricane Indeed Moved Southward. However...dynamical Models
Have Improved A Lot Since Then And The Confidence Is Higher. The
Anticyclone In The Gulf Is Forecast To Weaken As A Large Trough
Sweeps Eastward Across The United States...and The Atlantic
Subtropical Ridge Is Also Forecast To Build. This Should Result In
A Slow West To Northwest Motion Of Wilma During The Next 2 To 3
Days...toward The Extreme Northwestern Caribbean Sea. Thereafter...
Wilma Will Be Approaching The Westerlies And Recurvature With An
Increase In Forward Speed Is Forecast. This Is Consistent With The
Guidance Envelope Which Shows A Hurricane Moving Either Over The
Yucatan Channel Or Western Cuba And Then Over The Southern Half Of
The Florida ula Between Days 4 And 5. Remember...there Is A
Large Variability And Large Errors Associated With The 4 And 5 Day
Forecasts. So At This Time Stay Tune And Monitor Closely The
Progress Of This Hurricane.

Forecaster Avila