Miss Bella
Well-Known Member
I never knew that was a debatable thing.
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Do you think that Disney world will reclose its gates due to the rising number of COVID cases in Florida and around the country?
- Thread starter Logan L
- Start date
Miss Bella
Well-Known Member
I wonder how long this thread will stay open? At some point people will have to accept it’s not closing.
Epcotfan21
Well-Known Member
Not only that but openly rooting for it to close.
chrisvee
Well-Known Member
Probably you need to consult a reputable economist
Tony the Tigger
Well-Known Member
The ambulance driver used to be a Disney bus driver.
If they had just reopened non-essential stores, and left beaches closed, and policed restaurants acting like clubs at night, we would have been fine, and less economically devastated than closing everything.
Miss Bella
Well-Known Member
I always thought there was a Walmart on every corner since the beginning of time. Tell me it ain't so.
Latlmes
www.latlmes.com
Source?
Parker in NYC
Well-Known Member
I wouldn’t go into them. As you and many others (or, let’s just call them “the blob”) have said, go to Disney. It’s safer there!
twilight mitsuk
Well-Known Member
Rick rolled
Miss Bella
Well-Known Member
Yeah, last time I was there I saw some guy put his hands down his pants scratch his butt and then start touching everything. My husband likes to go there to buy pool supplies. I'll only go with him if he takes me out to lunch first. I'm easily manipulated with food. Other than that I'm not a Wal mart shopper.
Parker in NYC
Well-Known Member
Ha! I'm easily manipulated with food, too. I can't lie.
wendysue
Well-Known Member
Yes, I understand that and should have asked for the partial refund earlier. (I guess it's too late now) We thought it would be ok to just move our vacation to August, but we do not feel that it's safe yet, so we will just let our AP's expire and move on.
DisneyCane
Well-Known Member
Do you live in one of these counties? I live in Broward. The restrictions in place back in late March and April were very restrictive. Mask compliance at every business I've been to since the requirement was put in place has been as close to 100% as possible.
Case doubling rates are a fun fact but I'm looking at the share of total cases vs. the percent of population that lives there. Miami-Dade is consistently around 25% or more of the daily cases while representing under 13% of the population.
The point stands that the most restrictive counties in the state that waited the longest for any kind of reopening have the most disproportionate share of cases now. What it shows is that there are countless other variables at play and just adding restrictions or mask mandates doesn't predict success in reducing the number of cases.
The spread is not happening where people are following the rules. It is happening where they aren't. Further restricting businesses that are following the rules will not do anything.
You just, quite unintentionally, proved my point. You say businesses in Broward have been following the rules...
In a hard lockdown, businesses are closed, period. Only the absolute most essential businesses are open. Florida isn't alone -- no state did a true hard lock down. Many places in Europe and Asia did proper hard lock downs.
But Florida's lockdown was softer than most.
Meanwhile, you contradict yourself further -- You say most of the spread is happening in South Florida. Then you say people in South Florida are following the rules. And then you say that the spread is NOT happening where people are following the rules. So which is it? The spread is in South Florida, or not? South Florida is following the rules, or not?
But here is the point --more restrictive rules do work. They need to remain in place for long enough to smash the virus, and then slowly loosened to the point where the virus can still be contained.
No surprise that denser urban areas that had more early spread, still have a disproportionate share of the virus. But the doubling times show where it is growing fastest -- And it is growing fastest in the places that had the least restrictions (whether mandatory or voluntary).
Dizneykid
Active Member
I can't think of anything more high risk for virus transmission than large gatherings inside or outside in a party like atmosphere. Not a beach or a theme park that has strict rules. No policy can stop the ability to gather privately. It's happening on some level in every state but especially warm climate states that have a party culture. Yes, bars opened too soon but those people will only take their party somewhere else. I've been to several places with mask rules over the past few weeks. Knock on wood, not sick. I don't think we have to worry about businesses being open especially if people wear masks. There will always be percentages of people that will gather no matter what. Those people are almost certainly behind a lot of the spread.
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DisneyCane
Well-Known Member
The spread is happening in private settings and households not at businesses which are following the rules. It also can/did happen at businesses (especially bars) which were not following the rules. The vast majority of businesses in South Florida are following the rules.
If more restrictive rules worked then South Florida should be doing better than the parts of Florida with less restrictions. South Florida has always been the most restrictive and had the worst outbreak.
Putting in hard lockdowns for longer does not "smash" the virus. All of the places in Europe and the US that had more severe restrictions came down to a steady state and report several hundred cases per day consistently.
As one example, Spain had a true hard lockdown. After reaching a stead state in the mid 300s of new cases per day, an increase began in the beginning of July and the seven day moving average is now 1437.
There is no evidence that severe hard lockdowns lead to less cases in total. They certainly "flatten the curve" and suppress spikes but they absolutely do not eliminate the virus. Even in the model of response and mask compliance, South Korea, the current seven day moving average is at 7.3% of the peak and is pretty much flat and constant.
The only way to eliminate this virus with isolation and quarantines would be a literal shut down of the world for 6-8 week where nobody could leave their house for any reason. Not food, not medical care, nothing. No essential business or government operations. When you have a virus that can spread asymptomatically you can not eliminate it with these methods.
Guess you missed this worldwide study that was linked earlier that says lockdowns are not that much of a factor at all
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/eclinm/article/PIIS2589-5370(20)30208-X/fulltext
Heppenheimer
Well-Known Member
Did you read the study?
Quoted directly from the discussion section:
"Similarly, the number of days to any border closure was associated with the number of cases per million (RR=1.04; 95%CI: 1.01–1.08). This suggests that full lockdowns and early border closures may lessen the peak of transmission, and thus prevent health system overcapacity, which would facilitate increased recovery rates. "
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Miss Bella
Well-Known Member
I hope you got enough trips out of them to break even. I always figure I need two trips to break even and anything over that I'm going for free.Yes, I understand that and should have asked for the partial refund earlier. (I guess it's too late now) We thought it would be ok to just move our vacation to August, but we do not feel that it's safe yet, so we will just let our AP's expire and move on.