Do you think that Disney world will reclose its gates due to the rising number of COVID cases in Florida and around the country?

[Miss Bella]

I'm a practicing physician, but I'm on the hospital board.

It’s interesting how different things are in different states.

 

[legwand77]

Latest numbers still show Florida is trending down in new cases and indicative of moving past the peak. Hitting 10% for the first time in weeks. Following the trend we will see sub 10% numbers this week. This with over 100,000 test reported. Yes, sadly deaths will rise a bit more , due to the lag, but will most likely level off and decline towards the end of the following week as we move past the peak in new cases. This is the same trend that AZ and TX are following as well a week or so ahead of Florida.

Locally Orange County reports 10% as well, which is the standard jump in positive for a Wed, has been the past few weeks, so it is expected and still less than previous Wed. With the trends line going down we will probably see Orange County at or near 5-6% positivityby Monday or Tuesday.

ETA Hospitalizations are still the same staying steady. Yes there are some very busy hospitals in South Florida/Miami.

 

[Miss Bella]

After months of this on social media, the news and real life I -think- people who already struggle with black and white thinking can’t handle the uncertainty of the current situation. The anxiety is overwhelming for everyone and some people are not able to occupy that uncertainty well. It is a coping mechanism and not an intentional callousness At least that’s the best I can come up with. And I say that with empathy for both sides. If someone lives in the black and white they are not ABLE to see that that is what they are doing. It really isn’t malicious but it also isn’t really going to change and the amount of maturity it takes to accept what is happening in our country without becoming emotionally crippled is not as common as one would hope. My thoughts only

That sure was a lot of psychobabble.

 

[havoc315]

I'm going to try to reduce getting into back and forth, and just post some general thoughts at a time.

First, why do I keep referring to the hospitalization rate? I think my rationale for using it has been misunderstood. It's not because of concern that hospitals are going to run out of bed space.
The reason I use the hospitalization charts is because they are the most reliable way to track the progress of the virus in different locations. They are a consistent measure of the number of "serious" infections -- serious enough to warrant hospitalization.
Total case counts? Extremely unreliable for comparing different points in time, since we are only identifying a portion of the real cases. We were missing far more cases in April than we are missing now. So while there are far more reported cases now than in April, that doesn't mean there are actually more total cases.
Death counts? Extreme lag. Deaths may not occur until weeks or even months after infection, and may not get reported for weeks or months more. Additionally, most of the evidence suggests deaths are very undercounted. And as some people will tell you, they believe deaths may be overcounted in some cases.
Positivity rate? Really really imprecise, very impacted by the population being tested at any given time. If on Day 1, you test 100 symptomatic people and get 25 infections, that's a 25% positivity rate. If on Day 2, you test another 100 symptomatic people, and get 30 infections, but you add a testing center that tests 100 asymptomatic people and that group only has 4 infections... Then the positivity rate dropped from 25% to 17%.... but the infection is actually getting worse. So high positivity rate with increasing testing is a very bad sign, but it's a very very imprecise tool for judging day to day changes.

But hospitalizations is a pretty consistent measure of how many serious infections are in a location at any given time. If cases are increasing purely due to increased testing, with more minor cases being detected, then hospitalizations will not rise. Unlike deaths, hospitalizations are reported with far less lag. (though still some lag from time of infection to hospitalization). So rising hospitalizations is the most reliable indicator of things getting "worse."

So where do we stand now in Florida?

Florida hit another new high in hospitalizations yesterday. Data is only available since July 10th, but since July 10th, in just 3 weeks, the number of hospitalizations has jumped from 6,974 to 9,520. 37% increase in 3 weeks.
That's bad.

The better news -- the total number of cases appears to be leveling off. If true, we would expect to start seeing the number of hospitalizations level off soon.

So how does this impact the discussion of whether Disney World should be open?

Let's be clear -- There are lots of behaviors that can bring down the viral spread. Even with theme parks open, enough other mitigation efforts can eventually bring down the viral spread. People voluntarily wearing masks, washing their hands, social distancing, avoiding gatherings -- those things will gradually bring down the numbers, regardless of whether Disney World or restaurants are open.

I expect the "truthers" and "hoaxers" to say, "the numbers are leveled off... see, we didn't need to close theme parks." Or the numbers will slowly drop over the next 30-60 days, and then they will proudly proclaim "success without closing the theme parks."

Such arguments are deeply flawed. Slowly containing the spread while thousands of people die is not a "success" if the spread could have been contained faster, with fewer deaths.

Point is that some painful short/medium term remedial measures will save lives... and will more quickly get us back to normal. More quickly allow Disney World to increase capacity.
Which would be better? A "hard" lockdown for 6 weeks, with very few deaths, followed by 90% normalcy. Or, lots of "soft measures" on an ongoing basis, with lots of deaths, and only 50% normalcy for a whole year?

Anyway...... sometimes I hate being right. Yesterday morning, I said the US would very soon be back to 1,000+ deaths per day. Well, yesterday 1,122 deaths in the US. In Florida, deaths continue to rise significantly -- Couple weeks ago, I said Florida would soon be at 100+ deaths daily... another 139 reported today. I suspect Florida will continue to rise, but I hope it stays under 200 per day.
A hard core lock down would get Florida under control quickly. Instead though, I suspect we will see a long and slow decline.

 

[havoc315]

As to the anonymous letter:
It is not reliable. It could be totally bogus.

At the same time, everything in the letter is believable and could be true. Given the infection counts we are seeing, it would be shocking if lots of WDW employees aren't "out sick."
WDW is fighting with 1 of their unions about whether to provide Coronavirus testing -- WDW does not want to test it's employees.

So I wouldn't necessarily believe the letter. It's "unauthenticated" in legal parlance. But I'd certainly accept that the letter *could* be very true.

 

[Miss Bella]

I'm going to try to reduce getting into back and forth, and just post some general thoughts at a time.

First, why do I keep referring to the hospitalization rate? I think my rationale for using it has been misunderstood. It's not because of concern that hospitals are going to run out of bed space.
The reason I use the hospitalization charts is because they are the most reliable way to track the progress of the virus in different locations. They are a consistent measure of the number of "serious" infections -- serious enough to warrant hospitalization.
Total case counts? Extremely unreliable for comparing different points in time, since we are only identifying a portion of the real cases. We were missing far more cases in April than we are missing now. So while there are far more reported cases now than in April, that doesn't mean there are actually more total cases.
Death counts? Extreme lag. Deaths may not occur until weeks or even months after infection, and may not get reported for weeks or months more. Additionally, most of the evidence suggests deaths are very undercounted. And as some people will tell you, they believe deaths may be overcounted in some cases.
Positivity rate? Really really imprecise, very impacted by the population being tested at any given time. If on Day 1, you test 100 symptomatic people and get 25 infections, that's a 25% positivity rate. If on Day 2, you test another 100 symptomatic people, and get 30 infections, but you add a testing center that tests 100 asymptomatic people and that group only has 4 infections... Then the positivity rate dropped from 25% to 17%.... but the infection is actually getting worse. So high positivity rate with increasing testing is a very bad sign, but it's a very very imprecise tool for judging day to day changes.

But hospitalizations is a pretty consistent measure of how many serious infections are in a location at any given time. If cases are increasing purely due to increased testing, with more minor cases being detected, then hospitalizations will not rise. Unlike deaths, hospitalizations are reported with far less lag. (though still some lag from time of infection to hospitalization). So rising hospitalizations is the most reliable indicator of things getting "worse."

So where do we stand now in Florida?

Florida hit another new high in hospitalizations yesterday. Data is only available since July 10th, but since July 10th, in just 3 weeks, the number of hospitalizations has jumped from 6,974 to 9,520. 37% increase in 3 weeks.
That's bad.

The better news -- the total number of cases appears to be leveling off. If true, we would expect to start seeing the number of hospitalizations level off soon.

So how does this impact the discussion of whether Disney World should be open?

Let's be clear -- There are lots of behaviors that can bring down the viral spread. Even with theme parks open, enough other mitigation efforts can eventually bring down the viral spread. People voluntarily wearing masks, washing their hands, social distancing, avoiding gatherings -- those things will gradually bring down the numbers, regardless of whether Disney World or restaurants are open.

I expect the "truthers" and "hoaxers" to say, "the numbers are leveled off... see, we didn't need to close theme parks." Or the numbers will slowly drop over the next 30-60 days, and then they will proudly proclaim "success without closing the theme parks."

Such arguments are deeply flawed. Slowly containing the spread while thousands of people die is not a "success" if the spread could have been contained faster, with fewer deaths.

Point is that some painful short/medium term remedial measures will save lives... and will more quickly get us back to normal. More quickly allow Disney World to increase capacity.
Which would be better? A "hard" lockdown for 6 weeks, with very few deaths, followed by 90% normalcy. Or, lots of "soft measures" on an ongoing basis, with lots of deaths, and only 50% normalcy for a whole year?

Anyway...... sometimes I hate being right. Yesterday morning, I said the US would very soon be back to 1,000+ deaths per day. Well, yesterday 1,122 deaths in the US. In Florida, deaths continue to rise significantly -- Couple weeks ago, I said Florida would soon be at 100+ deaths daily... another 139 reported today. I suspect Florida will continue to rise, but I hope it stays under 200 per day.
A hard core lock down would get Florida under control quickly. Instead though, I suspect we will see a long and slow decline.

We already had a hard core lockdown and it didn't work.

 

[VaderTron]

Yes there are some very busy hospitals in South Florida/Miami.

And central Florida, and North Florida, and Gulf coast Florida, and Pan handle....maybe you should investigate before making sweeping statements. The case of no beds available for a heart attack victim I posted earlier was not in South Florida.

 

[legwand77]

Hospitalizations in Florida over the past month when cases have gone up dramatically stayed level. Sure Covid and "with Covid" cases have gone up around 2500 in the past few weeks but in a system that has 60,000 staffed beds.

 

[legwand77]

And central Florida, and North Florida, and Gulf coast Florida, and Pan handle....maybe you should investigate before making sweeping statements. The case of no beds available for a heart attack victim I posted earlier was not in South Florida.

Yes that happened pre covid as well, hospitals go on diversion. Glad your friend is doing well

 

[Miss Bella]

And central Florida, and North Florida, and Gulf coast Florida, and Pan handle....maybe you should investigate before making sweeping statements. The case of no beds available for a heart attack victim I posted earlier was not in South Florida.

What because an ambulance driver said that? Maybe he just wanted to take them to the closest hospital which is what they are supposed to do.

 

[Lilofan]

Sounds like a disgruntled Universal employee so I'd take anything they say with a huge pile of salt.

Or perhaps someone crying out for someone to listen..

 

[Heppenheimer]

We already had a hard core lockdown and it didn't work.

It didn't work because we botched the re-opening phase.

 

[Jimdalva]

Politicians often say that 'The American people are very smart, and will do the right thing' . I disagree!

 

[VaderTron]

Hospitalizations in Florida over the past month when cases have gone up dramatically stayed level. Sure Covid and "with Covid" cases have gone up around 2500 in the past few weeks but in a system that has 60,000 staffed beds.


View attachment 485549View attachment 485550

I've seen this single sweeping post of stats that do not explain the issue at hand. Here's why. If I took the total income of the entire state of Florida and diveded it by the number of citizens I guarantee there would be a nice living wage for every person. However, that doesn't mean there isn't a large number of unemployed, underemployed, homeless, and poverty stricken citizens. It's just the opposite. Stats can be used to cover problems just as easily as to identify them.

Learn the difference and you may learn how to read data to benefit your understanding of a problem. A fixed reading of your data through the lens you insist on using would indicate that anyone can go to any hospital at any time in Florida and have no problem receiving treatment. Then how do you explain that an entire city in Florida did not have an available hospital bed for a heart attack victim? What does your chart say about that?

 

[legwand77]

What because an ambulance driver said that? Maybe he just wanted to take them to the closest hospital which is what they are supposed to do.

That is what I am thinking, as there are zero counties that have the 8 largest hospitals that are completely full. However it is anecdotal so no point in discussing, and glad their friend is doing well

 

[legwand77]

I've seen this single sweeping post of stats that do not explain the issue at hand. Here's why. If I took the total income of the entire state of Florida and diveded it by the number of citizens I guarantee there would be a nice living wage for every person. However, that doesn't mean there isn't a large number of unemployed, underemployed, homeless, and poverty stricken citizens. It's just the opposite. Stats can be used to cover problems just as easily as to identify them.

Learn the difference and you may learn how to read data to benefit your understanding of a problem. A fixed reading of your data through the lens you insist on using would indicate that anyone can go to any hospital at any time in Florida and have no problem receiving treatment. Then how do you explain that an entire city in Florida did not have an available hospital bed for a heart attack victim? What does your chart say about that?

see previous post

 

[Miss Bella]

It didn't work because we botched the re-opening phase.

At this point it really doesn't matter.

 

[VaderTron]

That is what I am thinking, as there are zero counties that have the 8 largest hospitals that are completely full. However it is anecdotal so no point in discussing, and glad their friend is doing well

My wife, who is in the medical field, was reporting the same week that the hospital she works in conjunction with had no beds available. I mean...we could doubt everything if we want. I could doubt the list you gave me was accurate. Who constructed the data? Who reported it? Was it thorough? Did you manipulate it afterwards? Do you know the sources that provided it?

After a while you have to just learn to trust some things, do more research, or go live in a bunker.

 

[Jrb1979]

FWIW:

At this point it really doesn't matter.

It does cause things can be done to mitigate the impact of Covid-19. You don't have to go into lockdown again but maybe make more restrictions. Close bars, make masks mandatory and fine people who don't comply with social distancing. For some reason no one is interested in putting those measures in place.

 

[VaderTron]

see previous post

I did. Now reply to the points in the one you dismissed. Or are you afraid of contradictory information?