I've been predicting that the daily infections will decline noticeably in about two weeks from now. It's going to follow the same pattern as NY and every other spike worldwide. The difference is that Florida didn't have a spike until June and neither did California or the other States having issues now.
I could be wrong but that's what I think is going to happen.
It's certainly possible that daily cases will continue to decline in Florida.
But there are several problems with your theory:
First, you are assuming there is no effect by level of mitigation. Whether masks or no masks, social distancing or not, locked down or open. This is simple epidemiology 101 -- this stuff DOES matter. Not every area has faced an identical curve.
For example, a country that really hasn't taken significant mitigation, Brazil:
Now, Florida is taking some fair mitigation measures: Bars are closing, masking is pretty common. And lots of people are voluntarily social distancing. That might be enough to drive infections down.
So the curve is mostly dependent on the actions of individuals, businesses and government.
But let's say you're right.... that it's a simple matter of, "it came way down in NY, came way down in Italy.. it will come way down and stay down at a big outbreak"
Well, there is a major massive problem with that theory of yours: The USA had a massive outbreak in April.... yet another massive outbreak in June/July. Now, under your theory, you'll explain it simply by, "different areas got hit at different times"
So.... follow your own logic... South Florida was hit very very hard. By your logic, the other regions of Florida will eventually see spikes similar to South Florida, to New York, etc..
So cases might drop in heavily hit South Florida, but that might be countered by rises in cases through the rest of the state?
I'll end this post on a lesson from Australia.
There has been some attention lately to a "massive second wave" in Australia. I believe some are trying to cite it as evidence that lockdowns don't matter. But really, the evidence is the exact opposite.
The new "epicenter" in Australia is Melbourne/Victoria -- a City of 5 million within a state of about 6 million people. Their massive 2nd-wave-spike is still only about 600 cases per day. In comparison, Orlando Fl/Orange Cty -- has a population of 285,000 and about 1.3 million in the county. Orange Cty has a total of 30,000 positive cases so far. The entire country of Australia has had only 22,000 cases.
So what we are calling a "spike" in Australia, is a fraction of what we are seeing in Orlando/Orange Cty. It would be the equivalent of Orlando/Orange Cty having about 100 cases per day.
In response, Victoria/Melbourne has gone into a very strict lockdown. So this "second wave" will be contained, it likely won't get massively out of control.
Australia has had a total of 221 deaths. Orange Cty Florida -- 234 deaths.
Australia finds 221 deaths in the country to be unacceptable, taking aggressive actions to prevent it from getting worse. A single county in Florida has even more deaths, and thinks that's good enough to open theme parks.