Do you think that Disney world will reclose its gates due to the rising number of COVID cases in Florida and around the country?

[havoc315]

Stopping elective procedures during the lockdown in places without a surge was a mistake, one made because we didn’t have adequate testing or PPE, but has been a detriment to many people. If a lockdown were to occur again now, elective procedures Would continue provided hospitals weren’t experiencing a surge.

The more aggressive we are early, the more we learn, the more we can narrowly "target" lockdowns. Mass untargeted lockdowns are a measure of last resort, because you failed and got to that point.

Simple rules... for EXAMPLE, any county/region with over 20% positivity, should go on a pretty hard core lockdown, except for the truly essential services. Any county with a positivity rate of over 10-20% should be on a "full soft" lockdown of non-essential services. Any county with positivity of over 5%, should be on a restricted basis -- no large gathering, no indoor dining, no themeparks, no in-person schools. Between 1% and 5%... semi-normal with masking and social distancing, but you can start to operate in-person schools, etc.. Under 1%, you can start to relax masking and social distancing somewhat, as long as you're closely monitoring.

 

[Touchdown]

The more aggressive we are early, the more we learn, the more we can narrowly "target" lockdowns. Mass untargeted lockdowns are a measure of last resort, because you failed and got to that point.

Simple rules... for EXAMPLE, any county/region with over 20% positivity, should go on a pretty hard core lockdown, except for the truly essential services. Any county with a positivity rate of over 10-20% should be on a "full soft" lockdown of non-essential services. Any county with positivity of over 5%, should be on a restricted basis -- no large gathering, no indoor dining, no themeparks, no in-person schools. Between 1% and 5%... semi-normal with masking and social distancing, but you can start to operate in-person schools, etc.. Under 1%, you can start to relax masking and social distancing somewhat, as long as you're closely monitoring.

That’s all well and good, except people travel. We can’t stop that, the smaller you cut up the areas, the easier it is to travel. I almost think state wide rules might be too small (and rules should be regionals) I know that unless we did country wide rules there is no way to stop people flocking to more open areas but making those areas bigger would cut down on this issue considerably.

 

[hopemax]

Noticed the same, Disney has a better chance of closing due to a hurricane than Covid this fall. Notice if a hurricane forms how much the media no longer focuses on Covid numbers.

Parks maybe, but resorts, not likely. That was already one of the concerns Florida had: if hotels are closed, where do people evacuate to? The pressure to keep the resorts open is likely going to stay high.

But can you imagine trying to evacuate ICU COVID patients in the event that a hurricane is on track for hitting Miami or Tampa? Hopefully, hospital backup power systems have not been subject to hospital covid budget cuts. I don't think the media would stop focusing on covid numbers in a hurricane. They'll set up shop outside the largest potentially affected hospitals asking about their evacuation / shelter in place plans. I know there are already concerns about what do with the field hospital at the Miami Beach Convention Center this fall, because is in a flood zone. It won't be covid or hurricane, it will be covid+hurricane. So prepare now (moderators, this means you, it will be awful ).

 

[havoc315]

That’s all well and good, except people travel. We can’t stop that, the smaller you cut up the areas, the easier it is to travel. I almost think state wide rules might be too small (and rules should be regionals) I know that unless we did country wide rules there is no way to stop people flocking to more open areas but making those areas bigger would cut down on this issue considerably.

My examples were a bit of oversimplification. For the most part, you need to make rules "regional" -- In some cases, the region might be several counties. For some purposes, the region might be several states.

And travel is one of the things that is already greatly restricted on a voluntary basis but might need more restriction on a mandatory basis. (though it's something you really can't restrict too much without getting into basic liberties.)

Also over-simplifying, I wouldn't base any of this on positivity rate alone. Would also look at hospital capacity, contact tracing capacity, etc.

But the basic point being: You can treat a 3% positivity region differently than you would treat a 7% differently than you would treat a 15% or 25% region.
With the goal of preventing that 3% region from becoming a 7% or 15% or 25% region.
And to do that... we don't need to constantly be in full lockdown. But we need to be smart and err on the side of caution.

 

[DisneyCane]

You're missing the entire point: Appropriate restrictions in April/May.... would mean no need to cancel elective procedures in July-August.

Had we taken appropriate actions in March-May, we could have 95% of our "normal" back right now. We could have schools opening without worry. We could have elective procedures.

The longer we delay taking appropriate steps, the longer we delay being able to get back to "normal." The more we have to endure sporadic periods of elective procedure cancellations. The more that schools may not be safe to re-open. etc, etc.

Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach were restricted through most of May and never removed the mask mandates. Those three counties are the ones with the worst problems now. No appropriate steps are going to stop young adults from having private gatherings. No appropriate steps increase living space or eliminate multi-generational households. All the "appropriate steps" do is hurt the people following the rules.

New York had a major outbreak before they knew about it or took any steps. The measures appear to have worked so well because such a high percentage of the population was already infected before the lockdown. If the percentage of the population in Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach counties that has been infected approaches the level of the NYC metro, whatever is done or not done will magically "work" in Florida also. I'll put money on it.

 

[havoc315]

Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach were restricted through most of May and never removed the mask mandates. Those three counties are the ones with the worst problems now. No appropriate steps are going to stop young adults from having private gatherings. No appropriate steps increase living space or eliminate multi-generational households. All the "appropriate steps" do is hurt the people following the rules.

New York had a major outbreak before they knew about it or took any steps. The measures appear to have worked so well because such a high percentage of the population was already infected before the lockdown. If the percentage of the population in Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach counties that has been infected approaches the level of the NYC metro, whatever is done or not done will magically "work" in Florida also. I'll put money on it.

No, Miami, Broward and Palm Beach never had the sort of lockdown or mask compliance that you had in NY. And critically, they demonstrate the need to do these things on more than a county-by-county basis.

And what we are seeing now... the fastest growth in Florida is actually the other counties:

https://www.miamiherald.com/news/coronavirus/article242270081.html

For example, the case doubling time in Miami-Dade is now 19.3 days, slightly below the state average of 19.9. But Osceola is 14 days.. Monroe County is 12.7 days. Santa Rosa is 13.5 days.

 

[legwand77]

No, Miami, Broward and Palm Beach never had the sort of lockdown or mask compliance that you had in NY. And critically, they demonstrate the need to do these things on more than a county-by-county basis.

And what we are seeing now... the fastest growth in Florida is actually the other counties:

https://www.miamiherald.com/news/coronavirus/article242270081.html

For example, the case doubling time in Miami-Dade is now 19.3 days, slightly below the state average of 19.9. But Osceola is 14 days.. Monroe County is 12.7 days. Santa Rosa is 13.5 days.

Is there any significant difference b/t miami dade county and those counties you listed?

 

[chrisvee]

It’s rough to see some of the smaller counties with such high deaths per 100k

 

[easyrowrdw]

Yes it is.
No it isn’t.
Yes it is.
No it isn’t.
Yes it is.
No it isn’t.
Yes it is.
No it isn’t.
Yes it is.
No it isn’t.
Yes it is.
No it isn’t.
.
.
.
Ad nauseum
Rinse repeat.

It's been making me think of this...

 

[Miss Bella]

Parks maybe, but resorts, not likely. That was already one of the concerns Florida had: if hotels are closed, where do people evacuate to? The pressure to keep the resorts open is likely going to stay high.

But can you imagine trying to evacuate ICU COVID patients in the event that a hurricane is on track for hitting Miami or Tampa? Hopefully, hospital backup power systems have not been subject to hospital covid budget cuts. I don't think the media would stop focusing on covid numbers in a hurricane. They'll set up shop outside the largest potentially affected hospitals asking about their evacuation / shelter in place plans. I know there are already concerns about what do with the field hospital at the Miami Beach Convention Center this fall, because is in a flood zone. It won't be covid or hurricane, it will be covid+hurricane. So prepare now (moderators, this means you, it will be awful ).

Do they normally evacuate hospitals in hurricanes? I honestly don’t know I’ve never lived in hurricane state. I have friends from Florida they said they would sleep at the hospital and they weren’t allowed to evacuate with their families. Hospitals have been getting money from the federal government. I’m not sure what you mean by Covid budget cuts.

 

[Bob Harlem]

Do they normally evacuate hospitals in hurricanes? I honestly don’t know I’ve never lived in hurricane state. I have friends from Florida they said they would sleep at the hospital and they weren’t allowed to evacuate with their families. Hospitals have been getting money from the federal government. I’m not sure what you mean by Covid budget cuts.

Typically not unless there's a particular reason (storm surge flooding comes to mind), Tampa General Hospital is a very storm surge prone section of Tampa (right on the bay), if any one would need to, that one would. Just no storm has a trajectory in modern times that would affect Tampa like that so far.

 

[SoFloMagic]

Man, we thought the air conditioning debate was bad...

I have a proposal: We could accept science and just discuss the very difficult equation (high covid cases vs great mitigation proceedures) that must be on all their minds right now

Thoughts?

 

[hopemax]

Do they normally evacuate hospitals in hurricanes? I honestly don’t know I’ve never lived in hurricane state. I have friends from Florida they said they would sleep at the hospital and they weren’t allowed to evacuate with their families. Hospitals have been getting money from the federal government. I’m not sure what you mean by Covid budget cuts.

You haven’t heard of hospitals laying off staff due to the lost revenue from decreased procedures? Every business has had to reevaluate their budget priorities. I'm just going to guess, that like Disney, hospital maintenance projects have been put on hold since March. I'm also going to guess in all the hurricane disaster plans, coastal hospital administrators never thought about the possibility that inland hospitals would not be able to accept patient transfers because of high volumes in those hospitals.

And yes, hospitals fully or partially evacuate (NICUs and ICUs) in advance or more common, I think, after hurricanes, if there is concern for loss of power, damage or flooding. Houston had to evacuate several afterwards due to flooding during Harvey. Prior to Dorian, several east coast FL hospitals evacuated their ICU patients, a Savannah hospital flew their NICU babies to Atlanta. Hospitals around Panama City had to evacuate after Michael due to damage. Even in NYC, there were patient evacuations due to flood damage suffered during Sandy.

 

[Miss Bella]

Typically not unless there's a particular reason (storm surge flooding comes to mind), Tampa General Hospital is a very storm surge prone section of Tampa (right on the bay), if any one would need to, that one would. Just no storm has a trajectory in modern times that would affect Tampa like that so far.

Thanks. I always watch the hurricane coverage on TV. I remember the issues a few hospitals and nursing homes had in Katrina, but I can’t recall anything from Florida.

 

[Lilofan]

You haven’t heard of hospitals laying off staff due to the lost revenue from decreased procedures? Every business has had to reevaluate their budget priorities. I'm just going to guess, that like Disney, hospital maintenance projects have been put on hold since March. I'm also going to guess in all the hurricane disaster plans, coastal hospital administrators never thought about the possibility that inland hospitals would not be able to accept patient transfers because of high volumes in those hospitals.

And yes, hospitals fully or partially evacuate (NICUs and ICUs) in advance or more common, I think, after hurricanes, if there is concern for loss of power, damage or flooding. Houston had to evacuate several afterwards due to flooding during Harvey. Prior to Dorian, several east coast FL hospitals evacuated their ICU patients, a Savannah hospital flew their NICU babies to Atlanta. Hospitals around Panama City had to evacuate after Michael due to damage. Even in NYC, there were patient evacuations due to flood damage suffered during Sandy.

That's a good point. When a Cat 4 or 5 is going to make landfall in an area, the hospitals are evacuated. With this covid mess, that would be a living nightmare.

 

[Polkadotdress]

Do they normally evacuate hospitals in hurricanes? I honestly don’t know I’ve never lived in hurricane state. I have friends from Florida they said they would sleep at the hospital and they weren’t allowed to evacuate with their families. Hospitals have been getting money from the federal government. I’m not sure what you mean by Covid budget cuts.

Depends on whether or not the hospital is in a low-lying flood zone and/or it’s in a mandatory evacuation zone.

Here’s an excellent article outline what steps were taken during Hurricane Dorian.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.miamiherald.com/news/weather/hurricane/article234654562.html

 

[Miss Bella]

You haven’t heard of hospitals laying off staff due to the lost revenue from decreased procedures? Every business has had to reevaluate their budget priorities. I'm just going to guess, that like Disney, hospital maintenance projects have been put on hold since March. I'm also going to guess in all the hurricane disaster plans, coastal hospital administrators never thought about the possibility that inland hospitals would not be able to accept patient transfers because of high volumes in those hospitals.

And yes, hospitals fully or partially evacuate (NICUs and ICUs) in advance or more common, I think, after hurricanes, if there is concern for loss of power, damage or flooding. Houston had to evacuate several afterwards due to flooding during Harvey. Prior to Dorian, several east coast FL hospitals evacuated their ICU patients, a Savannah hospital flew their NICU babies to Atlanta. Hospitals around Panama City had to evacuate after Michael due to damage. Even in NYC, there were patient evacuations due to flood damage suffered during Sandy.

Well I’m sure anyone laid off won’t have a problem getting a job now. My phone is blowing up everyday. Hospitals got 22 billion in the cares act. Whatever losses they incurred I’m sure they are making up for it now.
Thanks for the info on evacuations. Ive always been curious about it.

 

[Heppenheimer]

Well I’m sure anyone laid off won’t have a problem getting a job now. My phone is blowing up everyday. Hospitals got 22 billion in the cares act. Whatever losses they incurred I’m sure they are making up for it now.
Thanks for the info on evacuations. Ive always been curious about it.

Even though our hospital is nearly back to normal business levels, for the rest of the year, I still took an involuntary 10% pay cut and my employer isn't matching my retirement contributions.

Even with aid from the state and federal government, we took a big financial hit.

 

[Miss Bella]

Even though our hospital is nearly back to normal business levels, for the rest of the year, I still took an involuntary 10% pay cut and my employer isn't matching my retirement contributions.

Even with aid from the state and federal government, we took a big financial hit.

Are you on the administrative side of things?

 

[chrisvee]

I am now sorry I read the forecast for the Gulf.