Do you think that Disney world will reclose its gates due to the rising number of COVID cases in Florida and around the country?

[DVCakaCarlF]

So sick of hearing people saying other metrics are down. Logically and obviously, that’s temporary. You don’t die the day after you get the virus. There is time from infection to symptoms, symptoms to diagnosis, diagnosis to hospitalization, and hospitalization to death.

So if the numbers had previously been trending down, and then cases shoot up, the rest are coming, that’s irrefutable, and there is no point citing later stages being lower for a minute.

The only possible variable is they are learning how to treat it better, so you may end up with a lower death percentage.

The downside is even asymptomatic people are showing lung damage and other issues.

Then they are not asymptomatic.

 

[Polkadotdress]

So what are they doing now?

They are being creative, leveraging friends or family to watch the kids. Some still have spouses/partners that are furloughed. Adding in the layer of having the kids home to engage in school (vs having them home for summer where they can entertain themselves) is very difficult, as the parent must be there to aid in that learning.

 

[DisneyCane]

So sick of hearing people saying other metrics are down. Logically and obviously, that’s temporary. You don’t die the day after you get the virus. There is time from infection to symptoms, symptoms to diagnosis, diagnosis to hospitalization, and hospitalization to death.

So if the numbers had previously been trending down, and then cases shoot up, the rest are coming, that’s irrefutable, and there is no point citing later stages being lower for a minute.

The only possible variable is they are learning how to treat it better, so you may end up with a lower death percentage.

The downside is even asymptomatic people are showing lung damage and other issues.

There are many other variables including the ages of the new "cases" and the percentage of total new "cases" that are asymptomatic or mild that wouldn't have gotten tested in April or May.

The deaths per day seem to have maybe doubled while the number of new daily cases are 7-10 times higher. The case fatality rate should not be expected to remain constant. Even the infection fatality rate will drop as the vulnerable population is better protected from infection than they were in the early months of the pandemic.

 

[Tony the Tigger]

They are being creative, leveraging friends or family to watch the kids. Some still have spouses/partners that are furloughed. Adding in the layer of having the kids home to engage in school (vs having them home for summer where they can entertain themselves) is very difficult, as the parent must be there to aid in that learning.

Oh, well. It’s tough for everyone.

 

[SamusAranX]

Well I didn’t want to but Disney World refuses to refund my pass partially even though their website says otherwise.

Therefore so as not to waste $500.00 I will be going to AK in August. Hoping Florida has shown some improvement by then but I’m not betting on it. I don’t think they will reclose if they haven’t already with the huge caseload day to day

Ps: if anyone knows inner workings of Disney PM me, because I have run out of recourse on refunding my pass

 

[SJN1279]

Sadly, one projection set suggests that would be optimistic.

IHME | COVID-19 Projections

Explore forecasts of COVID-19 cases, deaths, and hospital resource use.

covid19.healthdata.org

Unless Mask usage becomes nearly universal.

Masks are Universal.

Perfect Billboard for I4

 

[legwand77]

Overall state positivity rose today to 14.4% from the trend down in the 11 range. Of course concerning, lets investigate why that might be the case. Looking back Florida historically had the same behavior last week 4 days of decline and then a big jump up and then fell back and continued to trend down. While the jump did not occur on the same day last week, one could suspect it is a data dump. Something to watch.

Also looked at where the positivity was high to bring the state rate up. It is all South Florida, Dade county etc. In fact Orange County reported a positivity rate of only 7.4% lowest it has been for a long time, might have to go back to May for that, took a quick look so not sure but it has been at least a month for sure. At the rate it is declining next week it could be 2-3%. I don't think it will but that is the trend .

Orange County has had theme parks open for almost two months, Disney for 2-3 weeks, positivity rate now below the DOH target rate of 10%. Hospitalizations and capacity overall statewide and locally in Orlando is pretty much the same today as it was back in June. All this while case numbers have risen sharply.

There really isn't reason at all to reclose the parks. Masks might be working , mitigation/physical distancing might be working, virus might be mutating to a less dangerous one, might be any or all of the above, but the trends in the Orlando area are looking better.

 

[legwand77]

Founds this interesting on today's report, I know Disney has pixie dust but did not realize the power of the pixie dust

 

[wendysue]

Well I didn’t want to but Disney World refuses to refund my pass partially even though their website says otherwise.

Therefore so as not to waste $500.00 I will be going to AK in August. Hoping Florida has shown some improvement by then but I’m not betting on it. I don’t think they will reclose if they haven’t already with the huge caseload day to day

Ps: if anyone knows inner workings of Disney PM me, because I have run out of recourse on refunding my pass

Don't know the inner workings of Disney, but they refused to refund our AP's as well, but we will NOT be going back. Will just have to eat the loss I guess, cause it's not worth running into all the people who think they are entitled to do whatever they want.

 

[Disstevefan1]

Overall state positivity rose today to 14.4% from the trend down in the 11 range. Of course concerning, lets investigate why that might be the case. Looking back Florida historically had the same behavior last week 4 days of decline and then a big jump up and then fell back and continued to trend down. While the jump did not occur on the same day last week, one could suspect it is a data dump. Something to watch.

Also looked at where the positivity was high to bring the state rate up. It is all South Florida, Dade county etc. In fact Orange County reported a positivity rate of only 7.4% lowest it has been for a long time, might have to go back to May for that, took a quick look so not sure but it has been at least a month for sure. At the rate it is declining next week it could be 2-3%. I don't think it will but that is the trend .

Orange County has had theme parks open for almost two months, Disney for 2-3 weeks, positivity rate below the target rate of 10%. Hospitalizations and capacity is pretty much the same today as it was back in June.

There really isn't reason at all to reclose the parks. Masks might be working , mitigation/physical distancing might be working, virus might me mutating to a less dangerous one, might be all of the above, but the trends in the Orlando area are looking better.

You bring up all good points. Even if you trust the numbers (there have been reporting problems, and as you say "data dumps" could be seen as a spike when there is no spike) , also as you say south Florida is skewing the states overall numbers, South Florida is a LONG WAY from the theme parks! The two populations do not mingle all that much.

 

[Miss Bella]

Don't know the inner workings of Disney, but they refused to refund our AP's as well, but we will NOT be going back. Will just have to eat the loss I guess, cause it's not worth running into all the people who think they are entitled to do whatever they want.

If Disney is open your not entitled to a refund.

 

[Chef Mickey]

So sick of hearing people saying other metrics are down. Logically and obviously, that’s temporary. You don’t die the day after you get the virus. There is time from infection to symptoms, symptoms to diagnosis, diagnosis to hospitalization, and hospitalization to death.

So if the numbers had previously been trending down, and then cases shoot up, the rest are coming, that’s irrefutable, and there is no point citing later stages being lower for a minute.

The only possible variable is they are learning how to treat it better, so you may end up with a lower death percentage.

The downside is even asymptomatic people are showing lung damage and other issues.

Objectively, the virus isn’t killing at the same rates as before. I mean it’s RECORD CASES news basically every day for a month, yet deaths aren’t even close to records. The media switched to pounding cases because deaths slowed so much and they needed another way to fear monger.

Yeah, you don’t die the day after...you most probably don’t die at all and particularly if you are generally healthy, which more people are the more who get infected. Early on, weakest died first. Death rates will continue to fall with more cases confirmed. The amount of unreported cases is likely significantly higher, making any reported death rate basically useless.

Give me a break with the lung damage and other issues for asymptomatic people. Don’t show me 5 articles on it either...it’s not a thing just because a few reported it and not enough information can be known so early.

You’re an alarmist for sure because you’re not even sticking to the facts now. You’re bringing up asymptomatic lung damage..I mean, just stop.

Also, don’t tell me I’m callous. This sucks. It sucks people died from this. It sucks some people can’t follow simple instructions and yes, some deaths were preventable just like the 61,000 flu deaths a few years ago. This is definitely worse for this year. We will see if it continues. Judging by death rates and unreported cases being likely huge, I’m not worried in the long term anymore than I am about other viruses.

 

[schuelma]

Objectively, the virus isn’t killing at the same rates as before. I mean it’s RECORD CASES news basically every day for a month, yet deaths aren’t even close to records. The media switched to pounding cases because deaths slowed so much and they needed another way to fear monger.

Yes, it appears true that treatments, etc. have improved and the death rate will not be as high as it was in April.

And yet deaths are increasing week over week and they will continue to increase for at least the next 3-4 weeks in all likelihood.

I would add one more point- a 1 to 1 comparison of cases to deaths from April to now is not valid because testing has greatly expanded. If testing was what it is now back in April, cases would have been much much higher.

 

[legwand77]

Objectively, the virus isn’t killing at the same rates as before.

Yeah, you don’t die the day after...you most probably don’t die at all and particularly if you are generally healthy, which more people are the more who get infected. Early on, weakest died first. Death rates will continue to fall with more cases confirmed. The amount of unreported cases is likely significantly higher, making any reported death rate basically useless.

Give me a break with the lung damage and other issues for asymptomatic people. Don’t show me 5 articles on it either...it’s not a thing just because a few reported it and not enough information can be known so early.

You’re an alarmist for sure because you’re not even sticking to the facts now. You’re bringing up asymptomatic lung damage..I mean, just stop.

Probably don't die, is an understatement, since it is a Disney board, let's look at Orange County. Using Orange County numbers first you would have to get infected, which chances are already very low on that and then only if you were infected chances of dying is only .5%. That is for all ages. Less than 50-60 yrs old it is much lower. For kids it is nonexistent.

 

[Jrb1979]

Probably don't die, is an understatement, since it is a Disney board, let's look at Orange County. In Orange County first you would have to get infected, which chances are already very low on that and then only if you were infected chances of dying is only .5%. That is for all ages. Less than 50-60 it is much lower.

What about the other issues that this virus causes from lung damage or is that no important as long as the Rat and his friends stay open. Ya'll would be losing your minds where I live as parks can't open this there is a vaccine or better treatment options

 

[Chef Mickey]

Yes, it appears true that treatments, etc. have improved and the death rate will not be as high as it was in April.

And yet deaths are increasing week over week and they will continue to increase for at least the next 3-4 weeks in all likelihood.

I would add one more point- a 1 to 1 comparison of cases to deaths from April to now is not valid because testing has greatly expanded. If testing was what it is now back in April, cases would have been much much higher.

Post the US daily deaths chart.

My point is, cases are harder to care about because as you point out, no one really knows the number of cases...which is good, because it means many people got infected, survived, and were never tested.

 

[schuelma]

Post the US daily deaths chart.

My point is, cases are harder to care about because as you point out, no one really knows the number of cases...which is good, because it means many people got infected, survived, and were never tested.

The week of 6/29-7/5 was the lowest weekly death number since I believe April- 3,609.

The week of 7/6-7/12 was 5,151

The week of 7/13-7/19 was 5,537.

 

[Chef Mickey]

The week of 6/29-7/5 was the lowest weekly death number since I believe April- 3,609.

The week of 7/6-7/12 was 5,151

The week of 7/13-7/19 was 5,537.

My point was daily deaths are still lower than their peak several months ago. A chart is better.

 

[Miss Bella]

What about the other issues that this virus causes from lung damage or is that no important as long as the Rat and his friends stay open. Ya'll would be losing your minds where I live as parks can't open this there is a vaccine or better treatment options

Anyone losing their mind over a theme park closing must have a pretty easy life.

 

[October82]

Then they are not asymptomatic.

Asymptomatic as in "positive test result without symptoms like coughing or fever". @Tony the Tigger is right - there have been a series of scientific papers that have found lung damage in these patients.