Do you think that Disney world will reclose its gates due to the rising number of COVID cases in Florida and around the country?

[mickeymiss]

The population of Orange County is over 1.3 million. I live in Orange County.

There are areas near me with that population doing far worse than Orange County by numbers that are touted as "successful". It's very strange to me.

 

[Polkadotdress]

The city of Jacksonville knew in advance of the event coming. Poor excuse by the Sheriff among other things. Why can't the city admit that delegates and their guests that would be flying in from all states into Jacksonville may make the covid situation worse?

There are several news articles that outline the sheriffs concerns, including a lack of approved funding, and an inability of the state of FL to commit to sending additional manpower to the city. So, at face value, I don’t believe the sheriff was giving a poor excuse.

'We can't pull it off': Florida sheriff says he can't muster security for GOP convention

There's a lack of clear plans, adequate funding and enough law enforcement officers, he says.

www.politico.com

I don’t think that’s the only reason, as Covid likely had a big influence, with both the city planners and the RNC team.

 

[threvester]

Come now, we must have empathy even if they can't.

who is they?

 

[DisneyCane]

For all of you thinking the positives are being over reported I ask that you carefully read the statement below the graph. How many double negatives are being counted?????

View attachment 485864

For all of you thinking the positives are being over reported I ask that you carefully read the statement below the graph. How many double negatives are being counted?????

View attachment 485864

Where is that chart from? The official dashboard or another site? I think it would help if everyone linked to the source when posting charts or other data.

 

[JoeCamel]

Where is that chart from? The official dashboard or another site? I think it would help if everyone linked to the source when posting charts or other data.

That is the trusted data scientist that felt the state was not telling the whole story. Sure to bring to light all the data not just what makes the pols look best.

Experience

experience.arcgis.com

 

[DisneyCane]

RNC convention in Jacksonville canceled. Does this bode anything for rest of FL?

Doubtful. No other events like conventions are being held in Florida.

It probably means that sporting events won't have near full capacity crowds anytime soon.

it means "Florida, you're in a REALLY bad position"

No, it says, "we'll get really negative press coverage if we do this," which is the opposite of the goal of a political convention.

RNC called off the convention due to covid but parks are still open.

The similarities between thousands of people packed in an arena and the way the parks are currently operating are really striking! [/Sarcasm]

 

[DisneyCane]

That is the trusted data scientist that felt the state was not telling the whole story. Sure to bring to light all the data not what makes the pols look best.

Experience

experience.arcgis.com

That's what I figured. She's "trusted" by people who thought Florida was faking numbers when they were good even though her real issue was that the dashboard didn't show non residents in the charts. I'll have to dig up the source report and not take her word for how things are counted.

As an aside, she is using data that anybody can access for her alternative dashboard. She isn't exposing anything that is "hidden."

 

[DisneyCane]

For all of you thinking the positives are being over reported I ask that you carefully read the statement below the graph. How many double negatives are being counted?????

View attachment 485864

I haven't found the weekly report that she is pulling this data from. However, the statements on the daily report do not indicate counting double negatives. Maybe the weekly report does, I don't know until I find it. Far be it from me to question the altruistic Ms. Jones.

The daily report states the following with respect to the total tests data chart:

These counts include the number of people for whom the department received PCR or antigen laboratory results by day. People tested on multiple days will be included for each day a new result was received. A person is only counted once for each day they are tested, regardless of whether multiple specimens are tested or multiple results are received. If a person has a positive specimen and a negative specimen in the same day, only the positive result is counted.

For the new case chart it says:

This percent is the number of people who test PCR- or antigen-positive for the first time divided by all the people tested that day, excluding people who have previously tested positive.

All of the discussion in this thread that I have seen discusses the daily data from the daily report. Nothing indicates double counting of negatives in the daily pdf report.

 

[DisneyCane]

also drives me nuts media don‘t correctly explain MOE and confidence levels for polling

This is a huge pet peeve of mine also. They don't even mention the confidence level. You just assume they are using 95% but the media doesn't explain that either.

They say something like the margin of error for the poll is +/- 3%. What they don't say is that if there is a 95% confidence interval, it means that the publishers of the poll results are 95% confident that the actual "answer" to the question is within 3% of the poll results. There is still a 5% chance that the actual "answer" is outside of that margin of error.

 

[GoofGoof]

The similarities between thousands of people packed in an arena and the way the parks are currently operating are really striking! [/Sarcasm]

The similarity is people from around the country are intentionally traveling into a hot spot for a reason that isn’t essential or necessary. I’m not saying WDW should shut down based on that criteria alone, but when POTUS says directly that one of the reasons he cancelled the RNC is that he feels it is wrong to have people travel from all over the country into a hot spot that does call into question whether people should be traveling into the same hot spot for a theme park. It has nothing to do with the nature of the theme park vs a convention or the safety protocols involved, just the idea of traveling into the area in general. It’s fair to disagree with him, god knows I usually do.

 

[The Mom]

Only have read that is a hot spot. Every article I read says that. Again I ask why they cancelled when day after day I read here the only problem in Florida is Miami. Did you read something different then what I saw?

Duval County is a hot spot compared to some other counties, and other parts of the country, but is not anywhere near the levels of the Miami area.

Duval County most recent stats: 18, 159 cases, 521 hospitalizations, 113 deaths, 198 non-resident cases. Dade County most recent stats 94,252 cases, 4939 hospitalizations, 1354 deaths, 816 non-residents. Broward and Palm beach counties have significantly higher numbers than Duval county. If you are familiar with the Miami area, you know that the counties blend into one another. In total thay have approximately 200,000 of the state's 300,000 cases.

There are some more rural counties that have a much higher infection rate because they are farming areas - with worker's barracks. And others house prisons - one prison in Columbia County has over 900 cases.

Lack of funds to provide adequate police resources to handle expected protestors was the major issue.

 

[The Mom]

Just to be clear, if I were living in another state I would probably not travel to any area of Florida right now. But as a FL resident, I would definitely not travel downstate at this time!

 

[DisneyDebRob]

Just to be clear, if I were living in another state I would probably not travel to any area of Florida right now. But as a FL resident, I would definitely not travel downstate at this time!

Agreed. I could add a bunch of states to that also.

 

[JoeCamel]

That's what I figured. She's "trusted" by people who thought Florida was faking numbers when they were good even though her real issue was that the dashboard didn't show non residents in the charts. I'll have to dig up the source report and not take her word for how things are counted.

As an aside, she is using data that anybody can access for her alternative dashboard. She isn't exposing anything that is "hidden."

She reported the things the state dashboard didn't. The only sources are public, it is displayed here and not on the state dashboard. Go to the testing page

 

[chrisvee]

This is a huge pet peeve of mine also. They don't even mention the confidence level. You just assume they are using 95% but the media doesn't explain that either.

They say something like the margin of error for the poll is +/- 3%. What they don't say is that if there is a 95% confidence interval, it means that the publishers of the poll results are 95% confident that the actual "answer" to the question is within 3% of the poll results. There is still a 5% chance that the actual "answer" is outside of that margin of error.

exactly we really need to teach statistics in high school

 

[Miss Bella]

The similarity is people from around the country are intentionally traveling into a hot spot for a reason that isn’t essential or necessary. I’m not saying WDW should shut down based on that criteria alone, but when POTUS says directly that one of the reasons he cancelled the RNC is that he feels it is wrong to have people travel from all over the country into a hot spot that does call into question whether people should be traveling into the same hot spot for a theme park. It has nothing to do with the nature of the theme park vs a convention or the safety protocols involved, just the idea of traveling into the area in general. It’s fair to disagree with him, god knows I usually do.

I'm still going.

 

[Miss Bella]

There are areas near me with that population doing far worse than Orange County by numbers that are touted as "successful". It's very strange to me.

I think 500 cases in a county with a population of 1.3 million would be considered doing well.

 

[GoofGoof]

I'm still going.

I’m not advocating anyone go or don’t go. The other poster that I replied to said there wasn’t a similarity between a convention and going to WDW. I was just pointing out that one aspect that is similar is that people from all over the country would be traveling into a hot spot to go. Some people feel that it’s “wrong“ to do that, apparently including the president. I’m sure there are many people who don’t have a problem with it.

 

[GoofGoof]

I think 500 cases in a county with a population of 1.3 million would be considered doing well.

I think it’s all relative to what you compare it to. For example based on the criteria that PA set for moving to green status the equivalent number of daily cases for a county with 1.3M people would be about 50 per day. My county has slightly less population than Orange County in FL but we are averaging around 40 new cases a day. Percent positive is under 5% so not from lack of testing.

 

[Bob Harlem]

There is an expo going on right now in the Orange County Convention center on about how to adapt expos https://togetheragainexpo.com/ and other live events.