Do you think that Disney world will reclose its gates due to the rising number of COVID cases in Florida and around the country?

[Miss Bella]

Been around 20-25% fairly steady , higher in South Florida of course

That's is a lot better than where I work, but like I said I'm in the epicenter for our county. I'm guessing that percentage is higher in South Florida and lower in central Florida and the Panhandle.

 

[Miss Bella]

Reading the thread here daily I thought South Florida was the problem not anywhere else. Wonder why they cancelled.

They've put out many statements and there have been interviews about it on TV. I'm sure you can find the info.

 

[DisneyDebRob]

They've put out many statements and there have been interviews about it on TV. I'm sure you can find the info.

Only have read that is a hot spot. Every article I read says that. Again I ask why they cancelled when day after day I read here the only problem in Florida is Miami. Did you read something different then what I saw?

 

[October82]

Did they also review all the deaths that occurred, that were not counted as COVID to verify that none of them had COVID listed as a contributing factor, that weren't included in the spreadsheet? Because erroneous info can work both ways.

But taking this at face value, of the 581 deaths they looked at, they found 8 erroneous listed. So 1.38% Most data collection comes with a "margin of error." I would think 1.38% would fall into that, and doesn't change the "nature of the beast."

This is exactly right. Many of the arguments in this (and similar) threads would not be made if people understood statistics and the media was better about including uncertainty when reporting numbers.

 

[Miss Bella]

Only have read that is a hot spot. Every article I read says that. Again I ask why they cancelled when day after day I read here the only problem in Florida is Miami. Did you read something different then what I saw?

I'm sure you're capable of drawing your own conclusions.

 

[DisneyDebRob]

I'm sure you're capable of drawing your own conclusions.

I have. That the people touting that South Florida is the only problem in Florida here is wrong. I mean if something as big as the RNC is saying it’s not safe, well I’ll believe them over internet posters here. Thanks!

 

[Miss Bella]

I have. That the people touting that South Florida is the only problem in Florida here is wrong. I mean if something as big as the RNC is saying it’s not safe, well I’ll believe them over internet posters here. Thanks!

I blame it all on Disney.

 

[chrisvee]

is it feasible

This is exactly right. Many of the arguments in this (and similar) threads would not be made if people understood statistics and the media was better about including uncertainty when reporting numbers.

this is absolutely true

statistics and data science

also drives me nuts media don‘t correctly explain MOE and confidence levels for polling

 

[Getachew]

The population of Orange County is over 1.3 million. I live in Orange County.

Your point?

 

[Lilofan]

Freedom isn’t subtle.

Some that are ignorant are using freedom as a reason in this covid epidemic and some are paying for it with their lives.

 

[Lilofan]

Two days ago the Sheriff said that he has not gotten the resources needed to provide protection for the convention. The mayor said he would bring the issue before the City council. They considered all of the pros and cons and voted against having the convention.

The city of Jacksonville knew in advance of the event coming. Poor excuse by the Sheriff among other things. Why can't the city admit that delegates and their guests that would be flying in from all states into Jacksonville may make the covid situation worse?

 

[mickeymiss]

The population of Orange County is over 1.3 million. I live in Orange County.

There are areas near me with that population doing far worse than Orange County by numbers that are touted as "successful". It's very strange to me.

 

[Polkadotdress]

The city of Jacksonville knew in advance of the event coming. Poor excuse by the Sheriff among other things. Why can't the city admit that delegates and their guests that would be flying in from all states into Jacksonville may make the covid situation worse?

There are several news articles that outline the sheriffs concerns, including a lack of approved funding, and an inability of the state of FL to commit to sending additional manpower to the city. So, at face value, I don’t believe the sheriff was giving a poor excuse.

'We can't pull it off': Florida sheriff says he can't muster security for GOP convention

There's a lack of clear plans, adequate funding and enough law enforcement officers, he says.

www.politico.com

I don’t think that’s the only reason, as Covid likely had a big influence, with both the city planners and the RNC team.

 

[threvester]

Come now, we must have empathy even if they can't.

who is they?

 

[DisneyCane]

For all of you thinking the positives are being over reported I ask that you carefully read the statement below the graph. How many double negatives are being counted?????

View attachment 485864

For all of you thinking the positives are being over reported I ask that you carefully read the statement below the graph. How many double negatives are being counted?????

View attachment 485864

Where is that chart from? The official dashboard or another site? I think it would help if everyone linked to the source when posting charts or other data.

 

[JoeCamel]

Where is that chart from? The official dashboard or another site? I think it would help if everyone linked to the source when posting charts or other data.

That is the trusted data scientist that felt the state was not telling the whole story. Sure to bring to light all the data not just what makes the pols look best.

Experience

experience.arcgis.com

 

[DisneyCane]

RNC convention in Jacksonville canceled. Does this bode anything for rest of FL?

Doubtful. No other events like conventions are being held in Florida.

It probably means that sporting events won't have near full capacity crowds anytime soon.

it means "Florida, you're in a REALLY bad position"

No, it says, "we'll get really negative press coverage if we do this," which is the opposite of the goal of a political convention.

RNC called off the convention due to covid but parks are still open.

The similarities between thousands of people packed in an arena and the way the parks are currently operating are really striking! [/Sarcasm]

 

[DisneyCane]

That is the trusted data scientist that felt the state was not telling the whole story. Sure to bring to light all the data not what makes the pols look best.

Experience

experience.arcgis.com

That's what I figured. She's "trusted" by people who thought Florida was faking numbers when they were good even though her real issue was that the dashboard didn't show non residents in the charts. I'll have to dig up the source report and not take her word for how things are counted.

As an aside, she is using data that anybody can access for her alternative dashboard. She isn't exposing anything that is "hidden."

 

[DisneyCane]

For all of you thinking the positives are being over reported I ask that you carefully read the statement below the graph. How many double negatives are being counted?????

View attachment 485864

I haven't found the weekly report that she is pulling this data from. However, the statements on the daily report do not indicate counting double negatives. Maybe the weekly report does, I don't know until I find it. Far be it from me to question the altruistic Ms. Jones.

The daily report states the following with respect to the total tests data chart:

These counts include the number of people for whom the department received PCR or antigen laboratory results by day. People tested on multiple days will be included for each day a new result was received. A person is only counted once for each day they are tested, regardless of whether multiple specimens are tested or multiple results are received. If a person has a positive specimen and a negative specimen in the same day, only the positive result is counted.

For the new case chart it says:

This percent is the number of people who test PCR- or antigen-positive for the first time divided by all the people tested that day, excluding people who have previously tested positive.

All of the discussion in this thread that I have seen discusses the daily data from the daily report. Nothing indicates double counting of negatives in the daily pdf report.

 

[DisneyCane]

also drives me nuts media don‘t correctly explain MOE and confidence levels for polling

This is a huge pet peeve of mine also. They don't even mention the confidence level. You just assume they are using 95% but the media doesn't explain that either.

They say something like the margin of error for the poll is +/- 3%. What they don't say is that if there is a 95% confidence interval, it means that the publishers of the poll results are 95% confident that the actual "answer" to the question is within 3% of the poll results. There is still a 5% chance that the actual "answer" is outside of that margin of error.