Do you think that Disney world will reclose its gates due to the rising number of COVID cases in Florida and around the country?

DisneyCane

Well-Known Member
Just to be clear, if I were living in another state I would probably not travel to any area of Florida right now. But as a FL resident, I would definitely not travel downstate at this time!

I understand your point but if you dive into the numbers the risk isn't as high as you might think. If we take Broward and assume an average of 1,500 new cases per day. At some point (I'm going to use 21 days) the number of people that are no longer contagious starts to equal the number of new cases per day (if the new cases stay roughly the same). After 21 days, about 1.62% of the population will be actively contagious.

The chance of being in prolonged, close contact with one of them who is asymptomatic is pretty low if you are coming from out of the area.

I'm pretty sure that you've mentioned being in the higher risk age bracket. In that case, I wouldn't travel anywhere that wasn't essential like my parents have been doing. However, if I lived in another part of the state (I live in Broward), at my age and risk level I would be fine traveling to Broward.
 

DisneyCane

Well-Known Member
Ignore the charts and focus on the words. That is what this is about.
I don't know how to interpret words that are associated with chart where the data seems incredibly messed up. I can make a dashboard also and write whatever disclaimers I want to about the data. I still haven't found her source report where I can compare what the DOH says about the data.

She doesn't have any inside knowledge about how the source data is generated. She had a problem with how the data was presented.
 

Miss Bella

Well-Known Member
500 cases in a county of 1.3 million? Wow! I mean it should be a concern but that seems VERY low compared to what we have here in the Houston area. In Harris county, we have about 65,000 cases with a population of 3 million. In the entire Houston metro area, it's 100,000 (ish) for 4 million (ish). That's 2% infection rate. We have a LOT of people saying "it's only 2% of the population getting this virus and many are mild. No big deal".
Are things improving in Texas? We're slowly but steadily improving here in AZ.
 

JoeCamel

Well-Known Member
I don't know how to interpret words that are associated with chart where the data seems incredibly messed up. I can make a dashboard also and write whatever disclaimers I want to about the data. I still haven't found her source report where I can compare what the DOH says about the data.

She doesn't have any inside knowledge about how the source data is generated. She had a problem with how the data was presented.
Baby or bathwater. You won't consider what you don't like because there may be a 1% (or whatever) error but the method of collection stated in plain english is thrown out as well?
Goodbye, I'm done.
 

DCBaker

Premium Member
500 cases in a county of 1.3 million? Wow! I mean it should be a concern but that seems VERY low compared to what we have here in the Houston area. In Harris county, we have about 65,000 cases with a population of 3 million. In the entire Houston metro area, it's 100,000 (ish) for 4 million (ish). That's 2% infection rate. We have a LOT of people saying "it's only 2% of the population getting this virus and many are mild. No big deal".

500ish a day. 25k total so far.
 

Jedijax719

Well-Known Member
500ish a day. 25k total so far.
Oh dang! Sorry I must have misread. Yeah that's a HUGE problem. That's not good at all.

Btw, are schools in the Dade county area of Florida going to start like usual? Are they going with any sort of choice or hybrid model?

@LUVMCO depends on what you mean by "improve". The number of new cases per day are staying consistent so there is more of a linear increase in number of cases. It's still around 10k new cases per day and the Houston area is seeing between 1500-2000 new cases per day. The fatality rate is still under 2% so I guess that is a positive. However, the positive testing rate is right around 15% and is closer to 20-25% in the Houston area (it was 28% recently at one point I think). The daily fatalities are rising though and we've hit over 200 deaths twice in the past week.

I teach in the 3rd largest district in Texas and our numbers are steadily rising and has become the Houston hotspot.(maybe Texas hotspot other than the McAllen area). Schools are on a free-for-all in terms of opening. Nobody is going full face-to-face. But some districts are starting in middle August with online only and some are starting in middle August with a choice option (they can go face-to-face or do online). I think the local spread is 35% wanting online but I don't know how many will actually do that. They really need to shut down the Houston area for about 2 weeks but that isn't going to happen. A couple of districts are going full online until October (such as Houston ISD). Families without the option to have someone home with kids are completely screwed. Our district has postponed the start of schools at all until after Labor Day and then going with the choice option. At the VERY least, our governor needs to order the closure of all school until after Labor Day.
 
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havoc315

Well-Known Member
Yes, the death of a nine year old is very sad. However, a not insignificant number of minors die from the flu and other diseases every year. More than have died from COVID by a lot.

But that's with schools closed during Covid. Flu deaths are also minimal when schools are closed. Schools open, Covid deaths are likely to be much greater. Looking at the fatality rate data we have collected so far, Covid still has a higher fatality rate in minors than the flu. Significantly.

I don't know where the covid tracking project is getting the testing numbers but they don't match the State data at all. Two of the last 3 days were over 100k tests and the third was over 90k. That chart shows recent days at 60k and below.

False... They link to the state data. Are you confusing PCR testing (current infection) and anti-body testing (infection sometime in the past)?

As far as seasonality goes, the flu is seasonal in part due to people spending time indoors during the winter. It is also partly because enough people get the common strains for that year that aren't included in the flu shot so that those strains hit herd immunity as well.

For the indoor part of the equation, Florida would not expect to be worse in the winter because, if anything, people in Florida spend more time outdoors in the winter when the weather is pleasant.

Your herd immunity statement is simply false. There are multiple reasons flu spreads significantly more in the fall. Yes, "indoor" in a big factor.
And just like the rest of the country -- A huge portion of the Florida population spends more time indoors during the fall and winter: The entire student population.

If your statement was correct, then flu wouldn't be worse in Florida during the fall/winter

Yet, much like the rest of the country --- Flu peaks in fall/winter in Florida:


Thus, IF the Coronavirus behaves like the flu (currently an unknown), then it would be expected to get much worse in Florida and the rest of the country in the fall and winter. Florida is not immune by having warmer winters.


I don't think young adults in NYC are avoiding private parties any more than they were in Florida.

While younger people in NYC are less cautious than they should be, as everywhere. I can guarantee you, young adults in NYC absolutely are being more careful than many other places. Indoor dining is still forbidden in NYC. Gyms, movie theaters and malls, all remain closed in NYC.

So unless you think "private parties" are the only places where disease spreads.... NYC has far less opportunity for community spread than most areas of Florida. Young adults in NYC are no eating indoors in restaurants, they are not going to gyms or movie theaters, they aren't shopping inside a mall.
 

techgeek

Well-Known Member
Do you think Universal canceling HHN is a sign of things to come?

Universal throwing in the towel on HHN is the strongest message in months that the situation in Central Florida is not good. It is an extreme measure on their part and a huge part of their revenue and identity. It was not made lightly.

In some ways I would have been less surprised if they closed the parks during the day and threw every resource they had at HHN.
 

KBLovedDisney

Well-Known Member
Universal throwing in the towel on HHN is the strongest message in months that the situation in Central Florida is not good. It is an extreme measure on their part and a huge part of their revenue and identity. It was not made lightly.

In some ways I would have been less surprised if they closed the parks during the day and threw every resource they had at HHN.
I'm not familiar with Universal. what does HHN stand for?
 

rle4lunch

Well-Known Member
Just stopping in to see the circus... See you tomorrow.
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legwand77

Well-Known Member
But that's with schools closed during Covid. Flu deaths are also minimal when schools are closed. Schools open, Covid deaths are likely to be much greater. Looking at the fatality rate data we have collected so far, Covid still has a higher fatality rate in minors than the flu. Significantly.

Not according to the CDC


 

DisneyCane

Well-Known Member
False... They link to the state data. Are you confusing PCR testing (current infection) and anti-body testing (infection sometime in the past)?

tests.jpg


This is what I quoted. How does that turn into less than 60k tests per day in the chart you posted?

As for the other stuff, I'm going to make an effort to stop arguing. You (and some other posters) and I have VERY different opinions on how this pandemic should be handled and neither can change the other's mind. The science is nowhere near conclusive enough to reach the "right" answer which is why the response has devolved into a political issue.

The main difference is that if it is handled "your way," I am unable to make my own decision do many things I consider important and be allowed to do them by other people who decide to be "open" for me to do them. If it is handled "my way" then you can elect to not do things that you consider too risky and others can decide if being "open" is too risky on an individual basis.
 

legwand77

Well-Known Member
Universal throwing in the towel on HHN is the strongest message in months that the situation in Central Florida is not good. It is an extreme measure on their part and a huge part of their revenue and identity. It was not made lightly.

In some ways I would have been less surprised if they closed the parks during the day and threw every resource they had at HHN.
The model for HHN is basically turning Universal into a bar/night club. Packing in as many people as possible is why they make a significant portion of revenue. Cutting capacity would not make sense. Plus many other reason that all added up to not having it.
 

DisneyCane

Well-Known Member
Baby or bathwater. You won't consider what you don't like because there may be a 1% (or whatever) error but the method of collection stated in plain english is thrown out as well?
Goodbye, I'm done.
1%? For the week ending 7/11 she has 17.4k positives and 66.4 negatives. The State dashboard has 79,561 positives and 538,915 negatives.

The method of collection is stated by HER in plain English along with data that doesn't remotely match the state report. I simply want to see the source for her data and see how it is explained by the department releasing the data that she is explaining.
 

havoc315

Well-Known Member
View attachment 486039

This is what I quoted. How does that turn into less than 60k tests per day in the chart you posted?

As for the other stuff, I'm going to make an effort to stop arguing. You (and some other posters) and I have VERY different opinions on how this pandemic should be handled and neither can change the other's mind. The science is nowhere near conclusive enough to reach the "right" answer which is why the response has devolved into a political issue.

The main difference is that if it is handled "your way," I am unable to make my own decision do many things I consider important and be allowed to do them by other people who decide to be "open" for me to do them. If it is handled "my way" then you can elect to not do things that you consider too risky and others can decide if being "open" is too risky on an individual basis.

Covidtracking has a link to their data, from the state. You can see it yourself. A quick examination shows that your chart is including repeat testing. While when computing positivity rate and reporting cases, the State (and Covidtracking) is only reporting first-time positives. If your chart was actually accurate, that would mean the Florida positivity rate has been 5-10%%%! Which we know isn't true.

Now, I've got no problem with a libertarian political view. I do have a problem when anyone, for political purposes, attempts to twist and distort the data and facts in favor of their political view.

We are a society of rules established for our mutual benefit. I suppose, under your way, we would get rid of laws against drunk driving -- that's an individual choice. If people consider it too risk, they shouldn't drink and drive, they shouldn't get in the car with drunk drivers, and they probably should avoid roads with drunk drivers. We shouldn't have speed limits -- individual choice if you want to drive at dangerously high speeds. We shouldn't have laws against smoking in public places -- If you want to avoid second hand smoke, just stay in your own house. Yes, an employee totally dependent on their job, could "elect" to quit and starve to death if going to work is too risky.

Certainly, that libertarian viewpoint is a legitimate philosophy in theory. But that's not the way our system works here. We have a complex system or laws, rules, customs and norms, established for mutual benefit and mutual safety. A system that protects individual liberty, but will prevent people from using their individual liberty to harm others.

So you want to argue for libertarian government... Go for it. But don't lie about the data. Own the argument, "if people want to drive drunk, if people want to expose others to cancer causing second hand smoke, if people want to spread Covid among their friends, family and co-workers, if companies want to endanger their employees..... they should have the right to do so."
 

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