News Toy Story Mania to be available via standby queue ahead of entrance relocation

[MisterPenguin]

I don't understand how people don't understand this!! I will never pay for fast pass but I want it to happen in the worst way because everyone will win in the end.

Paying for FP+s?!! NEVER!!!!

They should be put out to bid.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

You guys need to read up on queueing theory. FastPass+ could be eliminated tomorrow and the impact on standby lines would be exactly zero. It might have impacts on specific attractions, but the cumulative impact would be exactly a wash. The only way you get shorter net wait times is if the crowd-to-capacity ratio increases.

Yes, the standby lines will move faster, but there will be more people in them, making the wait time exactly the same.

Example: 100 people want to ride. Current distribution is 50% standby, 50% FastPass. Capacity is 100 people her hour. Standby line has a capacity of 50 people per hour, FastPass line has a capacity of 50 people per hour. The ride handles exactly 100 people per hour.

Now, you eliminate FastPass. Standby capacity is now 100 people per hour. Hooray, you improved standby capacity! Except those 50 people who used to have FastPasses don't have them anymore and they're now waiting standby with the other 50 people. You have 100 people in the standby line, the ride handles exactly 100 people per hour, and you're right back where you started.

 

[bhg469]

You guys need to read up on queueing theory. FastPass+ could be eliminated tomorrow and the impact on standby lines would be exactly zero. It might have impacts on specific attractions, but the cumulative impact would be exactly a wash. The only way you get shorter net wait times is if the crowd-to-capacity ratio increases.

Yes, the standby lines will move faster, but there will be more people in them, making the wait time exactly the same.

Example: 100 people want to ride. Current distribution is 50% standby, 50% FastPass. Capacity is 100 people her hour. Standby line has a capacity of 50 people per hour, FastPass line has a capacity of 50 people per hour. The ride handles exactly 100 people per hour.

Now, you eliminate FastPass. Standby capacity is now 100 people per hour. Hooray, you improved standby capacity! Except those 50 people who used to have FastPasses don't have them anymore and they're now waiting standby with the other 50 people. You have 100 people in the standby line, the ride handles exactly 100 people per hour, and you're right back where you started.

Read up on queuing theory? I'll get right on that...

I dont have to pretend I know what I am talking about. When I hear people as in the know as @marni1971 , who know more about past attractions than some current imagineers, you have to listen. Even people that travel and bodcast like this for a hobby like @RSoxNo1 seem to grasp this. Im not dismissing you completely but I think you're assuming a lot of numbers.

 

[marni1971]

When I hear people as in the know as @marni1971 , who know more about past attractions than some current imagineers..

That’s a bit of a sobering thought.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

Read up on queuing theory? I'll get right on that...

I dont have to pretend I know what I am talking about. When I hear people as in the know as @marni1971 , who know more about past attractions than some current imagineers, you have to listen. Even people that travel and bodcast like this for a hobby like @RSoxNo1 seem to grasp this. Im not dismissing you completely but I think you're assuming a lot of numbers.

The exact numbers don't matter. The only thing that matters is whether a ride is operating at capacity or not. If it is, it doesn't matter whether that capacity is consumed by FastPass riders or standby riders, the capacity is what it is. The primary advantage of FastPass plus is that it spreads people around to rides that wouldn't otherwise operate at capacity (see: Finding Nemo FastPass at 9am). Yes, this has a detrimental effect on the standby times for Finding Nemo at 9am, but it also has a positive effect on the standby times for whatever those people would otherwise be doing at 9am, likely Frozen Ever After.

The primary impact of FastPass is psychological, not mathematical.

 

[Goofyernmost]

You guys need to read up on queueing theory. FastPass+ could be eliminated tomorrow and the impact on standby lines would be exactly zero. It might have impacts on specific attractions, but the cumulative impact would be exactly a wash. The only way you get shorter net wait times is if the crowd-to-capacity ratio increases.

Yes, the standby lines will move faster, but there will be more people in them, making the wait time exactly the same.

Example: 100 people want to ride. Current distribution is 50% standby, 50% FastPass. Capacity is 100 people her hour. Standby line has a capacity of 50 people per hour, FastPass line has a capacity of 50 people per hour. The ride handles exactly 100 people per hour.

Now, you eliminate FastPass. Standby capacity is now 100 people per hour. Hooray, you improved standby capacity! Except those 50 people who used to have FastPasses don't have them anymore and they're now waiting standby with the other 50 people. You have 100 people in the standby line, the ride handles exactly 100 people per hour, and you're right back where you started.

Yes... only a specific number of people will go through a standby line in an hour. That does not change. What does change in your possible position in that line. You don't think that all the people in the FP line are going to get in the standby line ahead of you, do you? There isn't any way that the standby line doesn't start moving steadily instead of people having to stand stagnant in a line watching others go ahead of you that got there later then you. It worked, I lived it, I have seen it. It didn't get unbearable until after FP came into place. From what some people have said that "allegedly" are in the know, the overall attendance has not really increased all that much. Again it is your position in those lines that matter, but, if you are 100th in the line without FP you will be on the ride long ahead of the same position with a FP line. It's quite basic.

 

[mikejs78]

You guys need to read up on queueing theory. FastPass+ could be eliminated tomorrow and the impact on standby lines would be exactly zero. It might have impacts on specific attractions, but the cumulative impact would be exactly a wash. The only way you get shorter net wait times is if the crowd-to-capacity ratio increases.

Yes, the standby lines will move faster, but there will be more people in them, making the wait time exactly the same.

Example: 100 people want to ride. Current distribution is 50% standby, 50% FastPass. Capacity is 100 people her hour. Standby line has a capacity of 50 people per hour, FastPass line has a capacity of 50 people per hour. The ride handles exactly 100 people per hour.

Now, you eliminate FastPass. Standby capacity is now 100 people per hour. Hooray, you improved standby capacity! Except those 50 people who used to have FastPasses don't have them anymore and they're now waiting standby with the other 50 people. You have 100 people in the standby line, the ride handles exactly 100 people per hour, and you're right back where you started.

Good luck with this. I keep saying it, but the response is always 'but, but, we didn't have these crowdz before FP! FP must be the reason! FP is awful! Forget your fancy queuing theory, I have my own memories that prove me right!'

 

[mikejs78]

Yes... only a specific number of people will go through a standby line in an hour. That does not change. What does change in your possible position in that line. You don't think that all the people in the FP line are going to get in the standby line ahead of you, do you? There isn't anyway that the standby line doesn't start moving steadily instead of people having to stand stagnant in a line watching other go ahead of you that got there later then you. It worked, I lived it, I have seen it. It didn't get unbearable until after FP came into place. From what some people have said that "allegedly" are in the know, the overall attendance has not really increased all that much. Again it is your position in those lines that matter, but, if you are 100th in the line without FP you will be on the ride long ahead of the same position with a FP line. It's quite basic.

Yes but you'll get in line at a later position. So the line will be longer when you arrive (unless you arrive at rope drop). The attendance has gone up quite a bit in recent years. (I believe @MisterPenguin cited the recent increase and how many extra people per day that was.) There's also a tipping point, whereby wait times start to build more than linearly. I suspect we are past that tipping point which is why you see longer lines).

There's a common saying in statistics: correlation does not prove causation. Just because you experienced shorter wait times in the past, and your wait times are longer now, and now we have FP+ and before we didn't, it's a logical fallicy to conclude that FP+ must be the cause of longer wait times. It's like saying that ice cream sales cause snakebites -theres a correlation of areas with high ice cream sales and higher incidences of snakebites (warmer climate). But just because there's correlation there, ice cream definitely doesn't cause snake bites.

 

[mikejs78]

The primary impact of FastPass is psychological, not mathematical.

This is exactly right.

 

[HauntedMansionFLA]

You guys need to read up on queueing theory. FastPass+ could be eliminated tomorrow and the impact on standby lines would be exactly zero. It might have impacts on specific attractions, but the cumulative impact would be exactly a wash. The only way you get shorter net wait times is if the crowd-to-capacity ratio increases.

Yes, the standby lines will move faster, but there will be more people in them, making the wait time exactly the same.

Example: 100 people want to ride. Current distribution is 50% standby, 50% FastPass. Capacity is 100 people her hour. Standby line has a capacity of 50 people per hour, FastPass line has a capacity of 50 people per hour. The ride handles exactly 100 people per hour.

Now, you eliminate FastPass. Standby capacity is now 100 people per hour. Hooray, you improved standby capacity! Except those 50 people who used to have FastPasses don't have them anymore and they're now waiting standby with the other 50 people. You have 100 people in the standby line, the ride handles exactly 100 people per hour, and you're right back where you started.

Pirates and Haunted Mansion would go from a 45 minute wait to walk on to 5 minute wait without FP.

 

[mikejs78]

Pirates and Haunted Mansion would go from a 45 minute wait to walk on to 5 minute wait without FP.

That's absurd. Show your work.

 

[HauntedMansionFLA]

That's absurd. Show your work.

Went many times before the FP park wide for every ride needed to be scheduled six months before I walk on the premise

 

[mikejs78]

Went many times before the FP park wide for every ride needed to be scheduled six months before I walk on the premise

Correlation does not equal causation, as I said above. Attendance has risen quite a bit. I also remember going and waiting at HM pre FastPass+ for 20-30 min. And this was late mornings in October.

 

[kelknight84]

Yes more people in standby but you can only standby in one line. Not multiple lines at once like with fastpass.

 

[mikejs78]

Yes more people in standby but you can only standby in one line. Not multiple lines at once like with fastpass.

That is a falsity and not mathematically correct. Whether you have reservations for 3 lines or one it doesn't change the capacity of the rides. Or the # of people who can go on them. The number of FastPasses any one person has has absolutely zero impact on overall lines.

 

[Goofyernmost]

Yes but you'll get in line at a later position. So the line will be longer when you arrive (unless you arrive at rope drop). The attendance has gone up quite a bit in recent years. (I believe @MisterPenguin cited the recent increase and how many extra people per day that was.) There's also a tipping point, whereby wait times start to build more than linearly. I suspect we are past that tipping point which is why you see longer lines).

There's a common saying in statistics: correlation does not prove causation. Just because you experienced shorter wait times in the past, and your wait times are longer now, and now we have FP+ and before we didn't, it's a logical fallicy to conclude that FP+ must be the cause of longer wait times. It's like saying that ice cream sales cause snakebites -theres a correlation of areas with high ice cream sales and higher incidences of snakebites (warmer climate). But just because there's correlation there, ice cream definitely doesn't cause snake bites.

Not necessarily, and without the restrictions of FP you can bypass a line that is too long and come back later when it isn't. No matter how busy the parks are there are slow times for every attraction. You have just as much chance to be near the front of the line as the last. Not everyone shows up at the same time.

 

[kelknight84]

That is a falsity and not mathematically correct. Whether you have reservations for 3 lines or one it doesn't change the capacity of the rides. Or the # of people who can go on them. The number of FastPasses any one person has has absolutely zero impact on overall lines.

Capacity doesn't change but the potential customers per line is lower.

 

[MisterPenguin]

From what some people have said that "allegedly" are in the know, the overall attendance has not really increased all that much.

Yes it has. Dramatically.

In 2010, MK's yearly attendance was 17 million (according to TEA). In 2016 it was 20.4 million. That's 3.4 million more people per year. That's, on average, an extra 9,315 per day in the park. Every hour, those extra 9,315 people want to be on a ride... in a park that was already nearing peak. Tipping point tipped.

And by all anecdotal accounts, 2017 and 2018 are more heavily attended than 2016. The 2017 figures will be out in June.

FP+ makes waiting longer for one group and one group only: Those who don't schedule any FP+s.

 

[mikejs78]

Capacity doesn't change but the potential customers per line is lower.

No, it isn't. The attendance in the park won't change so potential customers per line is the exact same.

 

[mikejs78]

Not necessarily, and without the restrictions of FP you can bypass a line that is too long and come back later when it isn't. No matter how busy the parks are there are slow times for every attraction. You have just as much chance to be near the front of the line as the last. Not everyone shows up at the same time.

Then how come lines on attractions with no FastPass have been overly long as well?