The Official Hurricane Ivan thread...

Tim G

Well-Known Member
<TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=2 width="98%" border=1><TBODY><TR><TD bgColor=#ff0000><TABLE width="100%"><TBODY><TR><TD class=large>STORM STATUS</TD><TD class=small align=right>September 13, 8:10 PM EDT</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR><TR><TD bgColor=#cccccc><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=2 width="95%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD colSpan=2>Name: Hurricane Ivan</TD></TR><TR><TD class=small vAlign=top>Location: Very Near The Western Tip of Cuba.

Lat/Long: 21.6N, 85.1W
Max Winds: 160 mph
Category: 5

</TD><TD class=small vAlign=top noWrap>Heading: North-Northwest

Speed: 9 mph
Pressure: 26.99 inches
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
Hurricane Ivan Intermediate Advisory Number 46a

Issued at: 8:10 PM EDT 9/13/04


Corrected Warning Status For Cuba, Extremely Dangerous Hurricane Ivan Hitting Extreme Western Cuba Hard

A hurricane warning remains in effect for the cuban provinces of pinar del rio, havana, city of havana, and the isle of youth.

A hurricane warning remains in effect for the northeastern yucatan peninsula from tulum to progreso.

A tropical storm watch remains in effect for the Florida keys from the seven mile bridge westward, including the dry tortugas.

A hurricane watch may be required for a portion of the north central and northeastern gulf of mexico coast later tonight.

At 8 pm edt, 0000z, the eye of hurricane ivan was located near latitude 21.6 north, longitude 85.1 west or very near the western tip of cuba.

Ivan is moving toward the north-northwest near 9 mph, 15 km/hr. However, a northwestward motion is expected to resume later tonight or early Tuesday morning. On this track, the hurricane will be moving into the southeastern gulf of mexico later tonight and early on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 160 mph, 260 km/hr, with higher gusts. Ivan is an extremely dangerous category 5 hurricane on the saffir-simpson hurricane scale. Some fluctuations in strength are likely during the next 24 hours.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 115 miles, 185 km, from the center, and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 220 miles, 350 km. At 715 pm edt, sandino meteorological station in pinar del rio reported sustained winds of 124 mph with gusts to 162 mph.

The minimum central pressure recently reported by the air force reserve hurricane hunters was 914 mb, 26.99 inches.

Coastal storm surge flooding of 20 to 25 feet, locally higher, above normal tide levels, along with large and dangerous battering waves, can be expected over portions of the south coast of extreme western cuba.

Rainfall amounts of 8 to 12 inches, possibly causing life- threatening flash floods and mud slides, can be expected along the path of ivan.

Repeating the 8 pm edt position, 21.6 n, 85.1 w. Movement toward, north-northwest near 9 mph. Maximum sustained winds, 160 mph. Minimum central pressure, 914 mb.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your local weather office.

The next advisory will be issued by the national hurricane center at 11 pm edt.
 

Chape19714

Well-Known Member
Just thought I would let all of you know, I just got Power back from Francis, and all is fine. No Damage here, i know the Frances threads are long past cause of how long it took me to get power. Hope all is well with everyone else.
 

tigger248

Well-Known Member
Chape19714 said:
Just thought I would let all of you know, I just got Power back from Francis, and all is fine. No Damage here, i know the Frances threads are long past cause of how long it took me to get power. Hope all is well with everyone else.

Glad to hear that you're okay and have power back. It must be awful to not have it for so long (I can't imagine). Great to hear from ya!
 

Ringo8n24

Active Member
Well, we are now under a hurricane watch so I will be packing during a hurricane. :( At least WDW or Central Florida is clear of the danger of Ivan. If I had my choice, we would have driven down to WDW today and already be there when it hits here. Oh, I cannot wait until Saturday.
 

tigger248

Well-Known Member
Ringo8n24 said:
Well, we are now under a hurricane watch so I will be packing during a hurricane. :( At least WDW or Central Florida is clear of the danger of Ivan. If I had my choice, we would have driven down to WDW today and already be there when it hits here. Oh, I cannot wait until Saturday.

Just make sure you stay safe! I wish I were leaving Saturday for WDW.
 

Tramp

New Member
...and as if all this is not enough....tropical depression 11 has formed east of the Leeward Islands, and forecasters are promising that we'll soon be talking about Tropical Storm Jeanne. :confused:
 

Ringo8n24

Active Member
Our neighbor is a hurricane hunter out of Keesler AFB and his buddies that went out in Ivan today clocked winds at 216 mph near the eye. This storm is unbelievable. I hate that we are getting it, but I am glad Central Florida is not. There is no way that area needed another one. I hope Jeanne catches the trough that Ivan is supposed to and rides on out into the Atlantic.
 

pinkrose

Well-Known Member
Ringo8n24 said:
Our neighbor is a hurricane hunter out of Keesler AFB and his buddies that went out in Ivan today clocked winds at 216 mph near the eye. This storm is unbelievable. I hate that we are getting it, but I am glad Central Florida is not. There is no way that area needed another one. I hope Jeanne catches the trough that Ivan is supposed to and rides on out into the Atlantic.

Hopefully the storm will stay to the east of you and you only get the left side. Of course, being in Alabama... I'd like for none of us to get it. Stay safe! I worry about everyone on the coast. :(
 

JonnyK

Active Member
wdwfreak signing in and out... :wave:

wanted to let you know that im in the path and im from pensacola so im gonna ride this out.. and was told that we wont have power for at least 3-4 weeks or longer. Since this is a cat 5 hurricane and it can damage anything.

if the power doesnt come back on in at least 3 to 4 days, im leaving until its restored.

Keep us in our prayers and hope everything will be fine.
 

tigger248

Well-Known Member
wdwfreak said:
wdwfreak signing in and out... :wave:

wanted to let you know that im in the path and im from pensacola so im gonna ride this out.. and was told that we wont have power for at least 3-4 weeks or longer. Since this is a cat 5 hurricane and it can damage anything.

if the power doesnt come back on in at least 3 to 4 days, im leaving until its restored.

Keep us in our prayers and hope everything will be fine.

You are officially added to my prayer list. Good luck and above all, stay safe! 3-4 weeks with no power would be like hell! Not sure I could do it. Make sure you take all the proper precautions so you can stay safe. This is a scary storm (as we all know) so safety is the most important thing. Good luck!
 

pinkrose

Well-Known Member
You are added to my prayer list as well wdwfreak! Stay safe! :wave:

Here's what they are telling us as of 4am...


HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MORGAN CITY LA TO ST MARKS FL INCLUDING ALL OF THE ALABAMA GULF COAST

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WELL INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING...

FLOODING RAINS POSSIBLE ACROSS MOST OF THE STATE...

Here is a summary of our thinking on Ivan.

Bottom line is that confidence of a landfall somewhere at or near the Alabama Gulf coast is increasing. I do NOT have confidence in the intensity forecast of Ivan at landfall. There is very little skill in this. Right now NHC projects Ivan to be a category three storm at the time of landfall with sustained winds of 130 mph. Much like a Frederic in 1979.

Can it remain a category five? Yes, but very unlikely. Can it weaken into a minimal category one hurricane? Yes, but again, not likely. One thing we do note this morning on water vapor images is dry air to the northwest of Ivan. If this dry air gets involved in the circulation, it would weaken the hurricane more than forecast. Lets pray this happens. But, we can't promise it and are not forecasting it at this time.

On the NHC track, with the center of Ivan passing from Mobile Bay to Birmingham, here are some answers to the many questions we are getting in the office. These answers are for people in north and central Alabama (not coastal residents):

WHAT DO I DO TODAY TO PREPARE: Stock up on food and supplies so you can be ready for an extended power outage on the order of several days. Lets all take a deep breath before leaving the house, lines will be long at many stores today. Don't forget supplies for pets, and remember kids might not have their Gamecubes and computers going. Have something for the family to do with no power.

I LIVE IN A MOBILE HOME. DO I NEED TO LEAVE? You do not need to leave today, but make plans on having a place to go beginning tomorrow. I would imagine shelters will be opened for mobile home residents, and we will have them on TV and post them on our web site as soon as we get them. It is NOT advisable for those in mobile homes to stay in them during the peak of the hurricane conditions Thursday afternoon through Friday morning. The two inland fatalities from Opal in 1995 came from a tree falling onto a mobile home. Contact friends and relatives and have a place to go beginning tomorrow.

WILL SCHOOL BE OPEN ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY? No school closing decisions have been made at this time; they will be posted on the web site and they will run on ABC 33/40 as soon as we get them.

MORE SHORTLY...
 

Kadee

New Member
Well, guys, I'm stocked up....Water, food, flashlights, candles, chips, soda, gatorade, little debbie snack cakes, spaghettios, etc.... I'm planning on riding this out along with my husband and daughter (Disneychick17). HOWEVER, if this thing does not weaken, we may be packing up and moving out. My husband has an aunt in Chattanooga and we may just have to pay her a visit. I'm about to go pack up my pictures and grab the insurance papers and video of the house just in case. Gonna be ready to bolt! I remember Frederic vividly and all the destruction. This thing is SO much stronger and will wipe out where ever it hits for miles. I guess I'm rambling because I'm scared....VERY scared! I'll check in when I can. Not sure how long before power will be back. My daughter is out of school for the rest of the week mainly because of Gulf Shores/Orange Beach evacuations. Yesterday, they ordered all non residents out of Baldwin County (where I live) and told residents to start preparing. Our Wal Mart has NOTHING left in it. (I think I bought it all!) Anyway, I'll tie myself down and hang on tight for as long as I can.
 

pinkrose

Well-Known Member
Stay safe Kadee!!! You and your family will be in my prayers. I just saw on the weather channel our Gov. asking all of you all along the coast to evacuate. Please don't wait too long before you make your decision. Traffic will be so bad and you don't want to be on the road when it comes on land. (Can you tell I'm worried about you? ) . I remember Frederic as well.

Ivan's been downgraded a notch. Let's hope he keeps going down.
 

David

Active Member
All of you in south Alabama are in our thoughts and prayers. I live in Tuscaloosa, and we are getting reports that we could have hurricane force winds all the way to Birmingham, power outages, possible tornadoes, etc. It's a BIG storm and I pray that everyone is kept safe.
 

MKCP 1985

Well-Known Member
Please throw me into the mix with Kadee, Ringo, freak, str8fan, bsanders, stingrock and others as the most recent projections have bad Ivan making landfall around Mobile Bay. Hurrican force winds project out as much as 100 miles from the eye of the storm, so truly the entire gulf coast between New Orleans and Appalachicola has good reason to be concerned.

The Mississippi gulf coast is under a declared state of emergency and schools are closing at noon today. People are boarding up their businesses and homes in preparation for the worst hurricane since 1969.

Good luck to all and most importantly, be safe!

Here's a recent map.

Tuesday, Sept 14, 9:55 a.m. update: most recent model has eye of storm coming ashore on Mississippi side of border with Alabama. Probabilities as follows:

Location Percentage
St Marks, FL 11
Apalachicola 13
Panama City 16
Pensacola 21 (wdwfreak)
Mobile, AL 24 (Kaydee)
Gulfport, MS 25 (ringo, MKCP)
Buras, LA 27
New Orleans 23 (stingrock)
New Iberia 16

I am glad this storm isn't going to hit Central Florida. I know everyone is on this board because of love for Walt Disney World, and it will be safe from Ivan.

But as for us within this zone, bad times are ahead. :( This will be my last post until it is all sorted out. So, until we speak again . . .
 

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