Mary Poppins
Member
TheDisneyGirl02 said:
It has been overcast here pretty much all day. It has rained on and off. No wind right now, though.
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The Official Hurricane Ivan thread...
- Thread starter FamilyMan
- Start date
It has been overcast here pretty much all day. It has rained on and off. No wind right now, though.
DDuckFan130
Well-Known Member
When Frances was about to hit, my aunt from New Orleans called to check up on us. Now with Ivan, we had to call them to check up on themstingrock23 said:
. They might leave if the storm comes but who knows. I'm praying for everyone that has been affected and will be affected :wave: :kiss:.
pinkrose
Well-Known Member
Here's the latest on our local weather website. If Ivan makes landfall where they think he will and at a 4, then could I'd guess he could possibly be a 2 when he reaches us. Frederic was a 1 when he reached central Al.
HERE'S THE LATEST ON HURRICANE IVAN AS OF 5:15 PM...
...we just finished a conference call with the NWS and state media...the NWS is warning that Ivan could be a lot like Opal in terms of impact in Central and North Alabama. I will address specific impacts later in this report, but flooding and high winds will definitely be a major threat.
...there is growing concern that Ivan may cause damage somewhat like Opal in 1995 in Alabama...wherever he makes landfall.
...at 4pm...satellite images show that Ivan is wobbling a bit to the right toward the tip of western Cuba...
...evacuations may be ordered along the Alabama coast as early as Tuesday morning.
COASTAL IMPACTS
Ivan could be stronger than 1979's Hurricane Frederic at landfall...
LANDFALL
...landfall is officially forecast to be near Pensacola, but the models are picking Mobile. It is too early to pick a specific landfall point because the forecast errors this far out are too large. Suffice to say, all interests along the Gulf Coast from Southeast Louisiana to east of Cedar Key should be ready to take action when watches and warnings go into effect.
WARNINGS
...a hurricane watch will likely be issued first thing Tuesday morning for a portion of the north central and northeastern Gulf Coast, including the Alabama/NW Florida coast.
INTENSITY
...Hurricane Ivan is expected to weaken some from its mighty Category 5 status before reaching the northern Gulf Coast. Just how strong will it be? The official forecast calls for it to have top winds of 140 mph when it makes landfall. This makes it a Category 4 hurricane, stronger than 1979's Hurricane Frederic.
SURGE
...Ivan will approach landfall moving north so the strongest storm surge will be in the east (right side.) It is too early to predict specific storm suge levels, but they could easily be 10-15 or higher near and to the right of where the center makes landfall.
RAINFALL
Extremely heavy rainfall will accompany Ivan as it makes landfall. Forecasts call for over 15 inches of raifall along the Alabama and extreme Northwest Florida coast between now and Friday.
TORNADOES
Tornadoes are likely Wednesday night and Thursday, especially on the eastern side of the hurricane circulation.
IVAN AND CENTRAL ALABAMA...
It is beginning to look more and more like much of Alabama will be on the east side of the circulation as Ivan moves inland, which will mean the possibility of some pretty rough weather here on Thursday.
WIND
Strong tropical storm foce sustained winds and gusts to hurricane force are expected to be spreading into Central Alabama late on Wednesday night and on Thursday. Of course, the hurricane will weaken as it comes north, but it will likely produce sustained tropical storm force winds along much of its track in Alabama. In the Birmingham area, current thinking is that we will experience sustained winds of 40 mph or higher for several hours Thursday. This will cause significant wind damage to trees and power lines. Opal produced the largest power outage in state history in 1995, felling hundreds of thousands of trees as she passed near Montgomery and then between Birmingham and Anniston. High wind warnings will be issued tomorrow afternoon for much of the area.
RAINFALL/FLOODING
On its current track, Ivan will bring heavy rains to the entire state of Alabama, with the heaviest rains from Southwest across South Central and East Alabama. 5-10 inches of rain is expected roughly south of a line from Huntsville to Livingston, with at least 3 inches expected all the way into the Shoals area. Some areas in Central Alabama may get 12 inches. Flash flood watches will be issued tomorrow afternoon for much of the state.
TORNADOES
Tornadoes are likely, especially on the eastern side of the hurricane as it moves inland.
AFTERNOON MODEL UPDATE: Quick peek at the new model output (18Z runs)... shows:
*ETA has Ivan going into southeast Louisiana late Wednesday night.
*The latest GFS places the center of Ivan near the Mouth of the Mississippi during the wee hours of Thursday morning, then to a point near Mobile by 1 pm Thursday and to Central Alabama early Friday morning before taking it straight east into Georgia. *UKMET and GFDL still point to Mobile county for landfall.
*NWS says model consensus is for a landfall near Mobile.
*4 p.m. NHC track now over Pensacola. We are told that the NHC is thinking they will shift it back to the west over the next couple of forecast packages.
DON'T LOOK NOW: Tropical depression number eleven has formed east of the Leeward Islands. Here is a quick look at the 5 day forecast for it. The NHC warns that a more westerly track could develop. The GFS and GFDL models keep it east of the U.S. East Coast. Let's hope so.
HERE'S THE LATEST ON HURRICANE IVAN AS OF 5:15 PM...
...we just finished a conference call with the NWS and state media...the NWS is warning that Ivan could be a lot like Opal in terms of impact in Central and North Alabama. I will address specific impacts later in this report, but flooding and high winds will definitely be a major threat.
...there is growing concern that Ivan may cause damage somewhat like Opal in 1995 in Alabama...wherever he makes landfall.
...at 4pm...satellite images show that Ivan is wobbling a bit to the right toward the tip of western Cuba...
...evacuations may be ordered along the Alabama coast as early as Tuesday morning.
COASTAL IMPACTS
Ivan could be stronger than 1979's Hurricane Frederic at landfall...
LANDFALL
...landfall is officially forecast to be near Pensacola, but the models are picking Mobile. It is too early to pick a specific landfall point because the forecast errors this far out are too large. Suffice to say, all interests along the Gulf Coast from Southeast Louisiana to east of Cedar Key should be ready to take action when watches and warnings go into effect.
WARNINGS
...a hurricane watch will likely be issued first thing Tuesday morning for a portion of the north central and northeastern Gulf Coast, including the Alabama/NW Florida coast.
INTENSITY
...Hurricane Ivan is expected to weaken some from its mighty Category 5 status before reaching the northern Gulf Coast. Just how strong will it be? The official forecast calls for it to have top winds of 140 mph when it makes landfall. This makes it a Category 4 hurricane, stronger than 1979's Hurricane Frederic.
SURGE
...Ivan will approach landfall moving north so the strongest storm surge will be in the east (right side.) It is too early to predict specific storm suge levels, but they could easily be 10-15 or higher near and to the right of where the center makes landfall.
RAINFALL
Extremely heavy rainfall will accompany Ivan as it makes landfall. Forecasts call for over 15 inches of raifall along the Alabama and extreme Northwest Florida coast between now and Friday.
TORNADOES
Tornadoes are likely Wednesday night and Thursday, especially on the eastern side of the hurricane circulation.
IVAN AND CENTRAL ALABAMA...
It is beginning to look more and more like much of Alabama will be on the east side of the circulation as Ivan moves inland, which will mean the possibility of some pretty rough weather here on Thursday.
WIND
Strong tropical storm foce sustained winds and gusts to hurricane force are expected to be spreading into Central Alabama late on Wednesday night and on Thursday. Of course, the hurricane will weaken as it comes north, but it will likely produce sustained tropical storm force winds along much of its track in Alabama. In the Birmingham area, current thinking is that we will experience sustained winds of 40 mph or higher for several hours Thursday. This will cause significant wind damage to trees and power lines. Opal produced the largest power outage in state history in 1995, felling hundreds of thousands of trees as she passed near Montgomery and then between Birmingham and Anniston. High wind warnings will be issued tomorrow afternoon for much of the area.
RAINFALL/FLOODING
On its current track, Ivan will bring heavy rains to the entire state of Alabama, with the heaviest rains from Southwest across South Central and East Alabama. 5-10 inches of rain is expected roughly south of a line from Huntsville to Livingston, with at least 3 inches expected all the way into the Shoals area. Some areas in Central Alabama may get 12 inches. Flash flood watches will be issued tomorrow afternoon for much of the state.
TORNADOES
Tornadoes are likely, especially on the eastern side of the hurricane as it moves inland.
AFTERNOON MODEL UPDATE: Quick peek at the new model output (18Z runs)... shows:
*ETA has Ivan going into southeast Louisiana late Wednesday night.
*The latest GFS places the center of Ivan near the Mouth of the Mississippi during the wee hours of Thursday morning, then to a point near Mobile by 1 pm Thursday and to Central Alabama early Friday morning before taking it straight east into Georgia. *UKMET and GFDL still point to Mobile county for landfall.
*NWS says model consensus is for a landfall near Mobile.
*4 p.m. NHC track now over Pensacola. We are told that the NHC is thinking they will shift it back to the west over the next couple of forecast packages.
DON'T LOOK NOW: Tropical depression number eleven has formed east of the Leeward Islands. Here is a quick look at the 5 day forecast for it. The NHC warns that a more westerly track could develop. The GFS and GFDL models keep it east of the U.S. East Coast. Let's hope so.
Tim G
Well-Known Member
<TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=2 width="98%" border=1><TBODY><TR><TD bgColor=#ff0000><TABLE width="100%"><TBODY><TR><TD class=large>STORM STATUS</TD><TD class=small align=right>September 13, 5:36 PM EDT</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR><TR><TD bgColor=#cccccc><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=2 width="95%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD colSpan=2>Name: Hurricane Ivan</TD></TR><TR><TD class=small vAlign=top>Location: About 30 miles, 45 km, South of The Western Tip Of Cuba.
Lat/Long: 21.3N, 84.9W
Max Winds: 160 mph
Category: 5
</TD><TD class=small vAlign=top noWrap>Heading: North-Northwest
Speed: 9 mph
Pressure: 26.93 inches</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>Hurricane Ivan Advisory Number 46
Issued at: 5:36 PM EDT 9/13/04
Eyewall of extremely dangerous category 5 ivan near the western tip of cuba
A hurricane warning remains in effect for cuba from pinar del rio to ciego de avila including the isle of youth.
A hurricane watch remains in effect for the rest of cuba.
A hurricane warning remains in effect for the northeastern yucatan peninsula from tulum to progreso.
A tropical storm watch remains in effect for the Florida keys from the seven mile bridge westward, including the dry tortugas.
A hurricane watch may be required for a portion of the north central and northeastern gulf of mexico coast later tonight.
At 5 pm edt, 2100z, the center of hurricane ivan was located near latitude 21.3 north, longitude 84.9 west or about 30 miles, 45 km, south of the western tip of cuba.
Ivan is moving toward the north-northwest near 9 mph, 15 km/hr. However, a northwestward motion is expected to resume later tonight or early Tuesday morning. On this track, the eye of the hurricane will pass over or near the western tip of cuba in a few hours.
Maximum sustained winds reported by an air force reserve hurricane hunter aircraft remain near 160 mph, 260 km/hr, with higher gusts.
Ivan is an extremely dangerous category 5 hurricane on the saffir-simpson hurricane scale.
Some fluctuations in strength are expected during the next 24 hours.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 115 miles, 185 km, from the center, and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 220 miles, 350 km.
During the past few hours, ham radio operators have reported wind gusts above 70 mph with trees and powerlines down in the pinar del rio province of western cuba.
The minimum central pressure recently reported by the air force reserve hurricane hunters was 912 mb, 26.93 inches.
Coastal storm surge flooding of 20 to 25 feet, locally higher, above normal tide levels, along with large and dangerous battering waves, can be expected near and to the east of where the center makes landfall, if it does make landfall in western cuba.
Rainfall amounts of 8 to 12 inches, possibly causing life- threatening flash floods and mud slides, can be expected along the path of ivan.
Repeating the 5 pm edt position, 21.3 n, 84.9 w. Movement toward, north-northwest near 9 mph. Maximum sustained winds, 160 mph. Minimum central pressure, 912 mb.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your local weather office.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the national hurricane center at 8 pm edt followed by the next complete advisory at 11 pm edt.
Lat/Long: 21.3N, 84.9W
Max Winds: 160 mph
Category: 5
</TD><TD class=small vAlign=top noWrap>Heading: North-Northwest
Speed: 9 mph
Pressure: 26.93 inches</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>Hurricane Ivan Advisory Number 46
Issued at: 5:36 PM EDT 9/13/04
Eyewall of extremely dangerous category 5 ivan near the western tip of cuba
A hurricane warning remains in effect for cuba from pinar del rio to ciego de avila including the isle of youth.
A hurricane watch remains in effect for the rest of cuba.
A hurricane warning remains in effect for the northeastern yucatan peninsula from tulum to progreso.
A tropical storm watch remains in effect for the Florida keys from the seven mile bridge westward, including the dry tortugas.
A hurricane watch may be required for a portion of the north central and northeastern gulf of mexico coast later tonight.
At 5 pm edt, 2100z, the center of hurricane ivan was located near latitude 21.3 north, longitude 84.9 west or about 30 miles, 45 km, south of the western tip of cuba.
Ivan is moving toward the north-northwest near 9 mph, 15 km/hr. However, a northwestward motion is expected to resume later tonight or early Tuesday morning. On this track, the eye of the hurricane will pass over or near the western tip of cuba in a few hours.
Maximum sustained winds reported by an air force reserve hurricane hunter aircraft remain near 160 mph, 260 km/hr, with higher gusts.
Ivan is an extremely dangerous category 5 hurricane on the saffir-simpson hurricane scale.
Some fluctuations in strength are expected during the next 24 hours.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 115 miles, 185 km, from the center, and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 220 miles, 350 km.
During the past few hours, ham radio operators have reported wind gusts above 70 mph with trees and powerlines down in the pinar del rio province of western cuba.
The minimum central pressure recently reported by the air force reserve hurricane hunters was 912 mb, 26.93 inches.
Coastal storm surge flooding of 20 to 25 feet, locally higher, above normal tide levels, along with large and dangerous battering waves, can be expected near and to the east of where the center makes landfall, if it does make landfall in western cuba.
Rainfall amounts of 8 to 12 inches, possibly causing life- threatening flash floods and mud slides, can be expected along the path of ivan.
Repeating the 5 pm edt position, 21.3 n, 84.9 w. Movement toward, north-northwest near 9 mph. Maximum sustained winds, 160 mph. Minimum central pressure, 912 mb.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your local weather office.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the national hurricane center at 8 pm edt followed by the next complete advisory at 11 pm edt.
Tim G
Well-Known Member
Gulf Coast preps for Ivan
Associated Press
September 13, 2004, 5:24 PM EDT
Rather than roll the dice on where 160-mph Hurricane Ivan might strike, Gulf Coast residents from Florida's Panhandle all the way to the bayous of Louisiana spent today boarding up their houses, tying up their boats and making plans to evacuate.
"I'm getting the hell out of here. This thing's too big," charter boat captain Jerry Weber said as he steered his 41-foot vessel up the Apalachicola River out of harm's way. "It doesn't matter where it comes ashore, not at this size.
"The hard-to-predict Category 5 storm, one of the most powerful hurricanes ever to hit the Caribbean, killed at least 68 people in a devastating run through Barbados, Grenada, Jamaica and the Cayman Islands.
The storm was headed toward Cuba today.
Emergency officials in several Panhandle counties were expected to decide later today whether to order evacuations for a storm that could strike as early as Wednesday. Already, the military bases in the region flew out some 275 aircraft.
On Pensacola Beach, Mark Sigler and his son stacked sandbags across the driveway of their steel-reinforced dome house that's supposedly designed to withstand hurricane-force winds.
They weren't sticking around to find out.
"It's stupid to stay unless you like camping in a disaster area," he said. "There's no reason to be out here."
At times along its wobbly path, forecasters had predicted Ivan could make direct hits on either the Florida Keys or populous South Florida, only to see it veer west and sidestep both.
Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama residents had thought they were in the clear, until Ivan shifted over the weekend and put them in the possible path.
"I'm not going to stay and wait and see if it's scary," Molly Dupont said in Orange Beach, Ala., as she got ready to head for a sister's home in Ohio.
Along Mississippi's 75-mile-long coastline, which has been remade in recent years by splashy gambling houses, managers of some floating casinos allowed employees time off in shifts to get their houses secured. But the gambling never stopped.
"It's been business as usual," said Rick Quinn, manager of the Copa Casino in Gulfport. "Of course, we are mindful of the storm."
In the New Orleans area, which is largely below sea level and extremely vulnerable to hurricanes, Lynn Harrington filled her grocery cart with plenty of water, bleach, duct tape, and canned tuna and beans.
"My boyfriend says that if you have cigarettes, toilet paper and lots of booze, you can trade for everything you need," she said.
Theresa Vegas, manager of the Sand Dollar Motel on the barrier island town of Grand Isle, La., said her husband and other shrimpers started bringing in their boats and would decide Tuesday whether to leave.
An evacuation order would make her move faster.
"I'm one of the first ones out of here," she said. "We've gotten stuck here once too often. There's no point in that."
At 5 p.m. EDT, Ivan was centered 30 miles south of the western tip of Cuba, and was headed toward the northwest at near 9 mph.
It had also grown, with hurricane-force winds extending 115 miles from the eye.
Although some forecasters predicted some weakening over the cooler waters of the northeastern gulf, National Hurricane Center director Max Maxfield said Ivan would still be "very formidable" and compared it to Category 4 Hurricane Opal that sent a 15-foot storm surge into the Panhandle in October 1995, killing two people and causing $2 billion damage.
"It's going to hit somebody," he said. "This is a very, very dangerous hurricane."
Florida Gov. Jeb Bush urged residents to heed the warnings.
"This is not the time to be defiant and let people know you are a macho man,' he said. "This is a Category 5 storm. Trust me, this is a powerful force of nature you shouldn't be messing with."
Ivan's run has only added to the anxiety in a state that has already endured Hurricanes Charley and Frances in the past month alone.
Cedar Key, an island in Florida Big Bend area where the peninsula turns into the Panhandle, has either been in the path or in the evacuation zone for the two previous storms and hasn't been ruled out as a target for Ivan.
Many feel that their lives have been on hold for a month.
Associated Press
September 13, 2004, 5:24 PM EDT
Rather than roll the dice on where 160-mph Hurricane Ivan might strike, Gulf Coast residents from Florida's Panhandle all the way to the bayous of Louisiana spent today boarding up their houses, tying up their boats and making plans to evacuate.
"I'm getting the hell out of here. This thing's too big," charter boat captain Jerry Weber said as he steered his 41-foot vessel up the Apalachicola River out of harm's way. "It doesn't matter where it comes ashore, not at this size.
"The hard-to-predict Category 5 storm, one of the most powerful hurricanes ever to hit the Caribbean, killed at least 68 people in a devastating run through Barbados, Grenada, Jamaica and the Cayman Islands.
The storm was headed toward Cuba today.
Emergency officials in several Panhandle counties were expected to decide later today whether to order evacuations for a storm that could strike as early as Wednesday. Already, the military bases in the region flew out some 275 aircraft.
On Pensacola Beach, Mark Sigler and his son stacked sandbags across the driveway of their steel-reinforced dome house that's supposedly designed to withstand hurricane-force winds.
They weren't sticking around to find out.
"It's stupid to stay unless you like camping in a disaster area," he said. "There's no reason to be out here."
At times along its wobbly path, forecasters had predicted Ivan could make direct hits on either the Florida Keys or populous South Florida, only to see it veer west and sidestep both.
Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama residents had thought they were in the clear, until Ivan shifted over the weekend and put them in the possible path.
"I'm not going to stay and wait and see if it's scary," Molly Dupont said in Orange Beach, Ala., as she got ready to head for a sister's home in Ohio.
Along Mississippi's 75-mile-long coastline, which has been remade in recent years by splashy gambling houses, managers of some floating casinos allowed employees time off in shifts to get their houses secured. But the gambling never stopped.
"It's been business as usual," said Rick Quinn, manager of the Copa Casino in Gulfport. "Of course, we are mindful of the storm."
In the New Orleans area, which is largely below sea level and extremely vulnerable to hurricanes, Lynn Harrington filled her grocery cart with plenty of water, bleach, duct tape, and canned tuna and beans.
"My boyfriend says that if you have cigarettes, toilet paper and lots of booze, you can trade for everything you need," she said.
Theresa Vegas, manager of the Sand Dollar Motel on the barrier island town of Grand Isle, La., said her husband and other shrimpers started bringing in their boats and would decide Tuesday whether to leave.
An evacuation order would make her move faster.
"I'm one of the first ones out of here," she said. "We've gotten stuck here once too often. There's no point in that."
At 5 p.m. EDT, Ivan was centered 30 miles south of the western tip of Cuba, and was headed toward the northwest at near 9 mph.
It had also grown, with hurricane-force winds extending 115 miles from the eye.
Although some forecasters predicted some weakening over the cooler waters of the northeastern gulf, National Hurricane Center director Max Maxfield said Ivan would still be "very formidable" and compared it to Category 4 Hurricane Opal that sent a 15-foot storm surge into the Panhandle in October 1995, killing two people and causing $2 billion damage.
"It's going to hit somebody," he said. "This is a very, very dangerous hurricane."
Florida Gov. Jeb Bush urged residents to heed the warnings.
"This is not the time to be defiant and let people know you are a macho man,' he said. "This is a Category 5 storm. Trust me, this is a powerful force of nature you shouldn't be messing with."
Ivan's run has only added to the anxiety in a state that has already endured Hurricanes Charley and Frances in the past month alone.
Cedar Key, an island in Florida Big Bend area where the peninsula turns into the Panhandle, has either been in the path or in the evacuation zone for the two previous storms and hasn't been ruled out as a target for Ivan.
Many feel that their lives have been on hold for a month.
Tim G
Well-Known Member
Mexicans fled Ivan's fury
People on a ferry abandoned the Caribbean island of Holbox on Sunday,
Sept. 12, 2004, as winds and surf from Hurricane Ivan threatened to
swipe Mexico's Caribbean coast.
Mexico issued a hurricane watch and tropical storm warning for the
northeastern Yucatan Peninsula, from Tulum to Progreso, including
Cozumel, although western Cuba still was expected to bear the brunt
of the hurricane.
People on a ferry abandoned the Caribbean island of Holbox on Sunday,
Sept. 12, 2004, as winds and surf from Hurricane Ivan threatened to
swipe Mexico's Caribbean coast.
Mexico issued a hurricane watch and tropical storm warning for the
northeastern Yucatan Peninsula, from Tulum to Progreso, including
Cozumel, although western Cuba still was expected to bear the brunt
of the hurricane.
Attachments
SpongeScott
Well-Known Member
Well, I have been placed on post-hurricane duty by Target. I'll be leaving Friday morning to go down to Mobile and I guess help clean up the mess. I've been told to give a three-day commitment, possibly stretching into five days.
SpongeScott
Well-Known Member
I re-read my post and I wasn't "told" to go, I was asked and I volunteered to do it. They are closing the Targets in Mobile on Wednesday and Thursday. I'll be sure and take my camera and see if I can get some shots of stuff.pinkrose said:Oh wow
julieluvsdisney
New Member
While I'm happy for Florida, I'm a little anxious for myself. Went out today to get some food preparations and such. All the water was gone at the grocery at noon today. Good thing we keep alot of bottled water at the house. We haven't decided if we're going to board up yet, not that I think there will be anything available by morning. Schools are closed here tomorrow until??. Keep us in your thoughts.
Covington=just north of New Orleans, across Lake Pontchartrain
Julie :xmas: (Thinking about our December trip to get me through)
Covington=just north of New Orleans, across Lake Pontchartrain
Julie :xmas: (Thinking about our December trip to get me through)
tigger248
Well-Known Member
SpongeScott said:
Thank you! I'm sure your efforts will be greatly appreciated by many. I have family in Mobile who just moved there (I think they close on their house next week or something). What a welcome party! I just hope everyone down there stays safe. I'm keeping all of you in my prayers once again. Here's hoping for the best.