The Official Hurricane Frances thread...

[WDWScottieBoy]

If I was there right now, I'd stay at work (WDW...if I worked there) and stay and do whatever needs to be done to help with everything. Even if it required going to a different park or a different job, I'd love to keep Disney safe along with everyone else there.

I'm hoping and praying all are well and stay safe!

I actually wanted to fly down or drive down this weekend, not only to go and help after it goes over FL and I've always had this adrennaline rush to be in a hurricane.

REMEMBER, STAY SAFE!

 

[NemoRocks78]

'The hurricane season from hell'
With Frances creeping in, Ivan looming, emergency officials are frustrated
By Dara Kam

Palm Beach Post Special Correspondent

Friday, September 03, 2004

TALLAHASSEE — With Southwest Florida still recuperating from Hurricane Charley, Frances crawling towards the eastern portion of the state, and Tropical Storm Ivan churning off the shores of Puerto Rico, state meteorologist Ben Nelson expressed the frustration of his colleagues in the emergency center war room during Friday's 7:30 a.m. briefing.

"This is the hurricane season from hell," Nelson said. "It's really starting to look like that."

Craig Fugate, director of the Division of Emergency Management, warned Floridians not to be placated by the storm's slowing overnight because the likelihood of severe flooding will increase.

"We're definitely telling people to be alarmed by this storm," Fugate said. "Usually with rainfall we talk about how many inches. With this, it may how many feet."

State officials said they expect municipal buildings and hospitals to sustain major damage if the storm maintains 145-mile-an hour winds, estimating destruction to 62 fire stations, 31 hospitals, 66 police stations and 494 schools.

A 1,200-man base camp has temporarily gone up in Tallahassee, soon to be dispatched to Ocala and West Palm Beach, the main staging areas for the post-hurricane recovery effort. Negotiations have begun with federal agriculture officials to secure baby food, a lesson taught by Charley when shortages in formula and infant food left parents desperate. Fuel shortages, already a problem for residents and visitors trying to flee the area and for those hunkering down, pose an even greater challenge for the first-response teams such as fire trucks.

Officials have been in contact with the Florida Petroleum Institute and industry representatives to address the shortages and try to ensure that gas will be available as precious resources are trucked in on the heels of the storm, Fugate said.

 

[NemoRocks78]

The 11am Advisory has not been posted yet.

 

[marni1971]

Jeezz...

Sorry I`ve been off the boards for a while (working)

I get back and read about Charly, and now this.

If it is not too late, I hope everyone affected by the last storm is as well as can be, and I (along with countless others) am thinking of you now and over the next few days.

Martin.

 

[NemoRocks78]

Gov. Bush: Frances is a slow-moving, huge, deadly threat
By Bob Mahlburg | Tallahassee Bureau
Posted September 3, 2004, 11:15 AM EDT

Gov. Jeb Bush this morning warned Floridians not to be soothed by the overnight weakening of Hurricane Frances, saying the storm is a slow-moving, huge, deadly threat to the state.

"I hope people don't take comfort in the fact that has occurred," Bush said, adding that a hurricane with 125-mph winds is not substantially different from one with 140-mph winds. "If we were out there testing I bet we couldn't figure it out. You couldn't stand up," Bush said. "Both are pretty strong. It isn't good news."

Frances weakened today into a strong Category 3 storm packing 115 mph winds and the potential to push ashore waves up to 14 feet high and is expected to begin affecting the state by tonight.

At 11 a.m., the hurricane was centered about 220 miles east-southeast of West Palm Beach and was moving west-northwest near 9 mph. Hurricane-force winds extended up to 85 miles from its center.

The latest projections call for the giant storm to make landfall Saturday afternoon somewhere along the Atlantic coast in a wide area centered around St. Lucie or Cape Canaveral, said state meteorologist Ben Nelson.

This storm is expected to weaken as it moves west or northwest across the state and would cross the greater Orlando area Sunday morning or afternoon as a Category 2 storm, packing 100-mph winds and heavy rain, based on current projections, Nelson said.

Gov. Bush expressed concern that the storm could be particularly troubling for those still recovering from hurricane Charley in southwest Florida, some of whom are still in temporary housing, including mobile homes.

"It's a serious problem if the storm impacts those counties, " Bush said, adding that it could also cause serious new problems for those in Central Florida counties such as Polk and Osceola.

State officials said evacuation efforts, which are the largest in state history, are going very well.

Colonel Chris Knight, head of the state highway patrol, said traffic on Interstate 4 is very light this morning, I-75 remains moderate to heavy, especially around the coastal area and I-95 is moderate.

"That's to be expected when you are evacuating 2.5 million people," Knight said.

Knight said the Florida Turnpike remains very heavy, but earlier discussions about turning the Beeline Expressway into a one-way route have proven to be unnecessary.

 

[NemoRocks78]

County-By-County Outlook

With Friday's path, the storm could still deliver 90 mph winds to Orlando. Areas in Orange County, Fla., could also see up to 10 inches of rain.

Residents in Lake County, Fla., could see 80 mph winds if the storm keeps the Tropcial Prediction Center's current path.

About 10 inches of rain and 60 mph winds can be expected in Marion County, Fla.

Brevard County can see a storm surge of up to 12 feet even if the storm makes landfall near Vero Beach, Fla. Winds could reach 105 mph.

Volusia County could see a storm surge of 8 feet with winds up to 90 mph in the current path.

Residents in Seminole County, Fla., can expect to see winds of up 85 mph.

Winds could reach 75 mph in Flagler County, Fla.

Polk County can see up to 12 inches of rain and 85 mph winds.

Winds in the current model could reach 70 mph in Sumter County, Fla.

 

[MKCustodial]

I saw on the main page that British Airways canceled its flights to Orlando. Well, it came up on the news today that Varig and TAM, the two biggest companies down here, have canceled their flights to Miami as well.


Hope you guys stay safe up there.

 

[corran horn]

Just say the latest prediction is coming right through Orlando around 8am on Sunday morning.

 

[TheDisneyGirl02]

Barnum,
So glad you are getting to go to WDW! Have a wonderful trip and be safe!

TheDisneyGirl02

 

[speck76]

Just say the latest prediction is coming right through Orlando around 8am on Sunday morning.

I noticed the track is moving closer to Orlando again.

I am honestly tired of waiting, I can not remember this much build-up prior to a hurricane.

Let's hope Ivan does not follow Frances, or I think people's heads will start exploding.

 

[NemoRocks78]

11am ADVISORY

At 11 am .the center of hurricane Frances was located by surface observations from the Bahamas and a reconnaissance plane near latitude 25.5 north...longitude 76.7 west or 220 miles east- southeast of South Florida.

Frances is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph a west-northwest to northwestward motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected during the next 24 hours. On this track the core of hurricane Frances will continue to move near or over the northwestern Bahamas today. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 115 mph with higher gusts. Some fluctuations in intensity is forecast during the next 24 hours.

Frances is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph and a west-northwest to northwestward motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected during the next 24 hours. On this track...the core of hurricane Frances will continue to move near or over the Northwestern Bahamas today. Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph with higher gusts. While aircraft and radar data indicates that frances has become somewhat disorganized...it is still a strong category three hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale.

Some fluctuations in intensity are possible during the next 24 hours. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 85 miles from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 185 miles.

Eleuthera has just reported sustained winds of 81 mph. Estimated minimum central pressure is 954 mb. Storm surge flooding of 6 to 14 feet above normal tide levels along with large and dangerous battering waves can be expected near the eye of Frances on the west side of Eleuthera Island and on the north side of Grand Bahama Island. Storm surge flooding of 4 to 6 feet above normal tide levels can be expected on the west side of the other islands of the Bahamas. Coastal storm surge flooding of 6 to 11 feet above normal tide levels along with large and dangerous battering waves can be expected near and to the north of where the center makes landfall in Florida. Rainfall amounts of 7 to 12 inches locally as high as 20 inches are possible in association with Frances. Swells generated by Frances could cause dangerous surf and rip currents.

 

[RogueHabit]

I saw on the main page that British Airways canceled its flights to Orlando. Well, it came up on the news today that Varig and TAM, the two biggest companies down here, have canceled their flights to Miami as well.

Hope you guys stay safe up there.

Yes, flights to Orlando have been grounded as the Airports shut down over the next 3 days.

Having seen the aftermath in the arrivals gates when we arrived at MCO on the 17th August I am not surprised. The majority of the ceiling tiles around our arrival gate were down and I understand that this was the state of play throughout the airport.

When we left 12 days later, on the 29th, there was still a lot of downed ceilings and water stains, but they had cleared a hell of a lot.

It was unbelievable to see so many trees down, and the signs along I-4 that were laying down, as the metal supports had just cracked!

On the plus side, when we arrived at CBR in the evening there were 2 trees felled just outside our room, the next morning, around 7am, we awoke to find workmen lifting the chainsawn remains onto trucks and we hadn't heard a thing... Only at WDW could the chainsaw two massive trees into small pieces without disturbing the occupants of the hotel room 10 feet away!!! :sohappy:

 

[NemoRocks78]

Let's hope Ivan does not follow Frances, or I think people's heads will start exploding.

If Ivan comes, I am on the next flight to Los Angeles. :lol:

Frances is not the end, folks.....hurricane season goes on until November 30th.

We are making some final preps here. Winds are picking up fast. It's rained one time but I doubt that it is because of the hurricane. Other than that, the sun is shining and it seems like it may be a nice day.

 

[NemoRocks78]

Storm Menaces Florida; VIPIR Path Pushes Storm North

POSTED: 11:39 am EDT September 3, 2004
UPDATED: 12:00 pm EDT September 3, 2004

At 11 a.m. EDT, Hurricane Frances continued a move west-northwest near 9 mph as it continued to approach Florida.

The storm was centered about 220 miles east-southeast of West Palm Beach with hurricane-force winds extended up to 85 miles from its center.

Frances' core was now expected to hit somewhere in Florida Saturday afternoon or evening, instead of early Saturday as had been earlier predicted.

The Tropical Prediction Center's projected path for Hurricane Frances Friday at 11 a.m. remained similar to the earlier forecast, with the storm making landfall near Vero Beach, Fla., midnight Saturday, Local 6 News meteorologist Reynolds Wolf reported.
The storm is expected to continue its march across Florida just south of Orlando at 2 p.m. Sunday, Wolf said. And, according to the latest model, the storm will move through the state and into the Gulf of Mexico.

However, the VIPIR forecast model (pictured, right) used by Local 6 News showed another path that moved the storm along the coast instead of making landfall near Vero Beach, Fla.

Wolf said the VIPIR model would keep the strong winds in the storm's northern quadrant away from Central Florida.

"We are seeing this northerly pass which is far easier for us," Wolf said. "This is a better scenario if this plays out."

The VIPIR model shows the storm not hitting inland by as late as Sunday.

If the storm hits Florida, It would be the state's second hurricane pummeling in three weeks.

Frances weakened Friday into a strong Category 3 storm with 115 mph top sustained winds, down from 120 mph earlier in the day and 145 mph Thursday. It still could push ashore waves up to 10 feet high north of where its center hits and dump 10 to 20 inches of rain, meaning deadly flooding was possible in a state with hundreds of miles of low-lying coastline.

Forecasters said Frances' weakening could only be temporary as is common with large storms, but predicted it would have winds of 115 mph when it makes landfall.

If it regained its former strength, it could be the worst storm to hit the state since Andrew in 1992.

 

[mkt]

Hey guys...

I'm at my grandmothers, helping her do final preparations. Found some fuel at the turnpike at a decent price (1.89/gallon). Tolls have been suspended, and there are police all over the place.

And like nemorocks said, if Ivan follows Frances, I'm on the first flight out.

 

[corran horn]

I noticed the track is moving closer to Orlando again.

I am honestly tired of waiting, I can not remember this much build-up prior to a hurricane.

Let's hope Ivan does not follow Frances, or I think people's heads will start exploding.

Oh, if that happens we'll be moving back home to Illinois post-haste.

 

[Tramp]

Hey guys...

I'm at my grandmothers, helping her do final preparations. Found some fuel at the turnpike at a decent price (1.89/gallon). Tolls have been suspended, and there are police all over the place.

And like nemorocks said, if Ivan follows Frances, I'm on the first flight out.

Glad you're safe, Rob! :wave:

 

[MalefiEffie]

Wow. We'll be praying for everyone in Florida. I hope it goes the other way. My husband and I are supposed to head to WDW on 9-11.

 

[NemoRocks78]

000
Wtnt31 Knhc 031507
Tcpat1
Bulletin
hurricane Frances Advisory Number 39
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl
11 Am Edt Fri Sep 03 2004

...wind Gusts Of 115 Mph In The Abacos...

A Hurricane Warning Is In Effect For The East Coast Of Florida
From Florida City Northward To Flagler Beach...including Lake
Okeechobee. A Hurricane Warning Also Remains In Effect For The
Central And Northwestern Bahamas.

A Tropical Storm Warning Remains In Effect For The Middle And Upper
Florida Keys From South Of Florida City Southward To The Seven Mile
Bridge...including Florida Bay.

A Hurricane Warning Means That Hurricane Conditions Are Expected
Within The Warning Area Within The Next 24 Hours. Preparations To
Protect Life And Property Should Be Rushed To Completion.

At 11 Am Edt...1500z...a Hurricane Watch Has Been Issued From North
Of Flagler Beach Northward To Fernandina Beach.

At 11 Am Edt...1500z..the Hurricane Watch For The Middle And Upper
Florida Keys From South Of Florida City Southward To The Seven Mile
Bridge...including Florida Bay Has Been Discontinued.

At 11 Am Edt...1500z...the Center Of Hurricane Frances Was Located
By Surface Observations From The Bahamas And A Reconnaissance Plane
Near Latitude 25.5 North...longitude 76.7 West Or About 40
Miles...65 Km...northwest Of Eleuthera Island And 220 Miles East-
Southeast Of The Florida Lower East Coast.

Frances Is Moving Toward The Northwest Near 9 Mph...15 Km/hr. A
West-northwest To Northwestward Motion With Some Decrease In
Forward Speed Is Expected During The Next 24 Hours. On This Track
...the Core Of Hurricane Frances Will Continue To Move Near Or Over
The Northwestern Bahamas Today.

Maximum Sustained Winds Have Decreased To Near 115 Mph...185
Km/hr...with Higher Gusts. Some Fluctuations In Intensity Are
Forecast During The Next 24 Hours.

Hurricane Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 85 Miles...140 Km...
From The Center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds Extend Outward Up
To 185 Miles...295 Km. Eleuthera Is Now Reporting Westerly Winds Of
Near 60 Mph...96 Km/hr And A Minimum Pressure Of 958 Mb...28.30
Inches. Little Harbor In The Abacos Just Reported A Wind Gust Of
115 Mph...185 Km/hr.

Storm Surge Flooding Of 6 To 14 Feet Above Normal Tide Levels...
Along With Large And Dangerous Battering Waves...can Be Expected
Near The Eye Of Frances On The West Side Of Eleuthera Island...and
On The North Side Of Grand Bahama Island. Storm Surge Flooding Of
4 To 6 Feet Above Normal Tide Levels Can Be Expected On The West
Side Of The Other Islands Of The Bahamas. Coastal Storm Surge
Flooding Of 5 To 10 Feet Above Normal Tide Levels...along With
Large And Dangerous Battering Waves...can Be Expected Near And To
The North Of Where The Center Makes Landfall In Florida.

Rainfall Amounts Of 7 To 12 Inches...locally As High As 20 Inches...
Are Possible In Association With Frances.

Swells Generated By Frances Will Be Affecting Portions Of The
Southeastern Coast Of The United States. These Swells Could Cause
Dangerous Surf And Rip Currents.

Repeating The 11 Am Edt Position...25.5 N... 76.7 W. Movement
Toward...northwest Near 9 Mph. Maximum Sustained Winds...115 Mph.
Minimum Central Pressure... 957 Mb.

For Storm Information Specific To Your Area...please Monitor
Products Issued By Your Local Weather Office.

An Intermediate Advisory Will Be Issued By The National Hurricane
Center At 2 Pm Edt Followed By The Next Complete Advisory At 5 Pm
Edt.

Forecaster Avila

 

[NemoRocks78]

Turnpike clear after rough evening
By CHUCK MCGINNESS
Palm Beach Post Staff Writer
Friday, September 03, 2004

Thrusday night, bumper-to-bumper traffic on Florida's Turnpike stretched 80 miles through the Orlando area. One motorists said the trip from Palm Beach Gardens to Orlando took 12 hours.

There were major choke points at State Road 60 west of Vero Beach, the Beeline Expressway in Orlando and at the northern terminum where the turnpike merges with Interstate 75.

"You're not going to get the normal drive on the turnpike with that many people evacuating," spokeswoman Kim Poulton said. "We were prepared after going through Hurricane Charley."

At 10 a.m. Friday, traffic was flowing smoothly along the entire stretch of the turnpike, Poulton said. "We're all clear and the storm hasn't gotten here. I think it shows our plan works."

But there were plenty of rough moments. At 11 p.m. Thursday, a water main break at the Fort Drum service plazas shut down restaurants and restrooms. The problems was fixed by 7 a.m. Friday.

Also, lines were four miles long for gas at the service plazas, causing traffic to backup onto the mainline. The service plazas have plenty of gas, but diesel fuel is being limited to $20 per vehicle. Motorists should gas up before getting on the turnpike, Poulton said.

Motorists should be prepared for major backups coming south after the storm. The first order of business will be to clear debris off the road. Most of the signs where hurricane-force winds hit will probably be knocked down, so turnpike workers will try to roll out electronic message signs as soon as possible.

"We're fully prepared to handle it," Poulton said.