Slowing, Frances will still have 'tremendous impact'
Leslie Postal and Maya Bell | Sentinel Staff Writers
Posted September 3, 2004, 5:55 PM EDT
Hurricane Frances, a powerful and dangerous hurricane, continues to crawl toward Florida's shore this evening, bringing with it the potential for torrential rains and flooding once it hits land and starts a slow journey across the state.
The National Hurricane Center in Miami said late today that Floridians have no cause to breathe easier.
Frances may be weakening, wobbling and disheveled, but it's still a huge Category 3 storm capable of doing enormous damage to Florida, especially since its wind bands are expanding.
"It's not good news. Don't let your guard down,'' said Max Mayfield, the center's director. "The wind field is really spreading out, and I can assure you this will have a tremendous impact on Central Florida.''
At 5 p.m., the massive storm was about 200 miles east-southeast of Florida's east coast, with maximum sustained winds of near 115 mph. It was moving about 8 mph, and its core was expected to be near Florida's shores tomorrow afternoon, the hurricane center said.
The exact timing and location of landfall remains difficult to predict, but the hurricane center projects the storm will hit Florida's southeastern coast around 2 p.m. tomorrow and then move slowly northwest across the state, taking it over Central Florida.
The official 24-hour forecast track, which has an average error of about 87 miles, had Frances making landfall just north of Fort Pierce. If Frances follows that track, the storm would traverse the state southwest of Orlando, bringing its eye -- and hurricane force winds -- over Osceola County.
Orange County, however, would probably feel tropical storm-force winds of about 58 mph. As the storm makes its agonizingly slow march to the Gulf of Mexico, its winds will slacken, but the rains aren't expected to. Forecasters expect inland counties in Frances' path to be deluged with 10 to 15 inches of rain and as much as 20 inches in isolated pockets.
State meteorologist Ben Nelson said the area north of the track would still take a beating because the highest winds are at the northeastern side of the storm.
The center's projection shows the storm hitting land somewhere between Stuart and Cape Canaveral and exiting into the Gulf of Mexico in the Tampa area, state officials said. But areas north and east of the storm also will experience blistering conditions.
The storm's slow speed means coastal areas could experience hurricane-force winds for 12 hours or longer. A hurricane warning is in effect along the east coast from Florida City in Miami-Dade County north to Flager Beach.
The storm's delay, and the slight drop in the top wind speed, should not offer any comfort, said Lt. Gov. Toni Jennings.
"Those who are in an evacuation mode need to get out. We're not kidding," Jennings said. "We don't want people to think, 'Oh, this isn't a big, bad storm.' This is a big, bad storm."
Craig Fugate, director of the state Division of Emergency Management, said Frances still is bringing a variety of scary conditions - high winds, heavy rain, a massive storm surge and sporadic tornadoes.
"I don't want people to be scared. I want people to respect this storm," Fugate said.
Frances could push water ashore 14 feet above normal tide levels and drop up to 20 inches of rain on some sections of the state, the center said.
"A lot of people may have water in their homes with this kind of flooding," Fugate said.
Across Central Florida, some residents prepared to wait out the storm in their homes Friday, some behind plywood-covered windows, while others headed to emergency shelters, fearful their homes were unsafe or too vulnerable to flooding.
Local residents in coastal communities, mobile homes and low-lying areas had been ordered to evacuate as Frances approached Florida's shores.
Noel and Betzadia Castro and their three children decided to ride out the storm at Freedom Elementary in Volusia County. The school is one of numerous local schools turned into emergency shelters to house hurricane evacuees. By this afternoon, thousands of residents had set up camp inside these schools.
The Castros moved to a mobile home in DeLand from Puerto Rico three weeks ago, looking for better schools for their children. They now fear their new home will be lost to Frances' high winds.
"It's going to fly away," said Noel Castro, 35, a cook at a Perkins restaurant, as his wife started crying.
They'd brought to the shelter little more than some toys for their children and important papers. "We should have come in a couple of months," he added.
As the massive hurricane came nearer, officials warned that serious flooding could follow the rain Frances will drop on the region. Some municipal offices ran out of sandbags today, though Seminole County said its shortage was temporary and more would be available tomorrow.
In Lake County, some cities already are on guard because of the 10 inches of rain that soaked that area when Hurricane Charley stormed through three weeks ago.
In Mascotte, for example, one street already is flooded and water rising near the city's ball field.
"Its just one of those things we're going to have to deal with," said Glenn Irby, city manager in Mascotte, where nearly half of the 4,000-resident population was forced to evacuate from mobile and manufactured homes today.
Officials said residents should remain very wary about Frances.
Mayfield, the center's director, said he expected people to die well outside of Frances' hurricane force winds "because that's what always happens. They're out riding around and a tree falls on their car and kills them. Or they go outside to smoke a cigarette.''
Gwyneth Shaw, Denise-Marie Balona and Robert Sargent of the Sentinel staff contributed to this story.