The Official Hurricane Frances thread...

The Mom

Moderator
Premium Member
chancellor said:
For those of you trying to make travel plans, it looks like the recent slow down in forward progress (5am advisory) is going to make Sunday the day the storm crosses the state, rather than Saturday. If you're still trying to get out, you may have gotten a break (though the traffic is another story).


Exactly! I-95N is already jammed up here (Jacksonville) It's still moving, but there are standstills near World Golf Village (partly due to construction, so bear with it, it will get better) and at the I-4/I-95 junction. That's where EVERYONE heading for 95N, both from the west and south, meet.

ALL local schools are closed, and many businesses are also closed. Authorities are trying to keep "locals" off of the evacuation routes. They are also scrambling to find hotel rooms for evacuees; they are almost gone here.
 

NemoRocks78

Seized
Premium Member
Glad to hear you'll be able to make it barnum! :)

000
WTNT31 KNHC 031140
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE FRANCES INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 38A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM EDT FRI SEP 03 2004

...SUSTAINED WINDS OF 100 MPH IN ELEUTHERA...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA
FROM FLORIDA CITY NORTHWARD TO FLAGLER BEACH...INCLUDING LAKE
OKEECHOBEE. A HURRICANE WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER FLORIDA KEYS FROM SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY SOUTHWARD
TO THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

AT 8 AM EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FRANCES WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 25.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.4 WEST. THIS POSITION IS
OVER ELEUTHERA IN THE BAHAMAS AND ALSO ABOUT 260 MILES...400
KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE FLORIDA LOWER EAST COAST.

FRANCES IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. A
WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH SOME DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK
...THE CORE OF HURRICANE FRANCES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NEAR OR OVER
THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS TODAY.

FRANCES REMAINS A STRONG CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF NEAR
120 MPH...195 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS
IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 185 MILES...295 KM. ELEUTHERA RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS
OF NEAR 100 MPH...161 KM/HR AND NASSAU JUST REPORTED A 75 MPH...120
KM/HR WIND GUST.

LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE
WAS 957 MB...28.26 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 6 TO 14 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED
NEAR THE EYE OF FRANCES ON THE WEST SIDE OF ELEUTHERA ISLAND...AND
ON THE NORTH SIDE OF GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF
4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED ON THE WEST
SIDE OF THE OTHER ISLANDS OF THE BAHAMAS. COASTAL STORM SURGE
FLOODING OF 6 TO 11 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH
LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO
THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL IN FLORIDA.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 7 TO 12 INCHES...LOCALLY AS HIGH AS 20 INCHES...
ARE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH FRANCES.

SWELLS GENERATED BY FRANCES WILL BE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. THESE SWELLS COULD CAUSE
DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS.

REPEATING THE 8 AM EDT POSITION...25.3 N... 76.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 AM EDT.

FORECASTER AVILA
 

NemoRocks78

Seized
Premium Member
Frances weakened but still dangerous
8:38 A.M. ET Fri.,Sep.3,2004
Matthew Newman, Sr. Meteorologist, The Weather Channel


Frances is still a dangerous hurricane but has (at least for the time being) weakened from the 145-mph Category 4 storm that it was on Thursday to a 120-mph Category 3 storm. There still is the possibility that the hurricane could strengthen again but the intensity forecast remains somewhat uncertain. Eleuthera in the Bahamas has had sustained winds of 100 mph this morning as the island takes a direct hit. San Salvador reported a sustained wind of 120 mph on Thursday where Frances moved across. The hurricane will continue to move slowly through the northwestern Bahamas toward the east coast of Florida.

Hurricane warnings remain in effect for much of Florida's east coast. These areas could start feeling the outermost effects of the storm by late Friday. Present thinking puts landfall on the central or southern portion of the east coast of Florida, any time from late Saturday to Sunday morning. While the landfall point is important, the destructive impacts from Frances may be widespread. This storm is larger and will affect more land than Charley did once it makes landfall. If you are in a weak structure like a mobile home, make plans to evacuate to a shelter or out of the path of the storm. This kind of hurricane can destroy a mobile home. Board up windows and secure outdoor objects (lawn furniture, trashcans, etc). Prune trees and shrubbery and harvest fruit if possible. Keep in mind that tropical storm force winds and building surf will precede the approach of the hurricane by quite some time. The flooding rainfall impact is also likely to be significant with this hurricane. Flood watches have been issued across much of the Florida Peninsula.

To make matters worse, new tropical storm has formed in the eastern Atlantic. Tropical Storm Ivan is located around 600 miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands. Maximum sustained winds are presently at 40 mph. The forecast calls for the storm to steadily strengthen and move briskly in a generally westward direction.

Meanwhile, in the eastern Pacific, now category-3 Hurricane Howard appears to be beginning the long weakening process about 430 miles southwest of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico. Howard is expected to move northwestward, however, and remain well off the Mexican coast.

In the western Pacific, Typhoon Songda is sweeping WNW from the northern Mariana Islands and could affect Taiwan in the next 3 days.

Frances Overview

  • Category 3 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 120 mph, as of 8 a.m. ET Friday

  • Hurricane Warnings issued from Florida City to Flagler Beach, FL

  • Current most likely impact point: Central or southern Florida east coast. Critical uncertainties still exist in intensity, timing, and track

  • About 2.5 million Florida residents ordered to evacuate. More than 14 million residents live in areas under watches and warnings
 

NemoRocks78

Seized
Premium Member
Hurricane Frances Weakens, Slows On Path To Florida
Strong Winds Still Predicted In Orlando

POSTED: 6:12 pm EDT September 2, 2004
UPDATED: 8:56 am EDT September 3, 2004


The Tropical Prediction Center's projected path for Hurricane Frances has the storm making landfall just north of Vero Beach, Fla., Local 6 News meteorologist Tom Sorrells reported Thursday night.

According to the latest update from the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Frances has dropped to a Category 3 storm, and slowed its march toward Florida.

Frances weakened early today into a Category 3 storm with 120 mph sustained winds and the potential to push ashore waves up to 14 feet high.

Frances could make itself felt in the state by late Friday. Its core, with the strongest winds, was expected to hit land late Saturday.

The latest computer projections show Frances wading ashore near Fort Pierce around midnight Saturday. The forecast puts the storm about 30 to 40 miles inland at 2 a.m. Sunday with winds of 120 mph.

The track has Frances moving northwest about 50 miles south of Orlando and then into the Gulf of Mexico north of Tampa Bay at 2 a.m. Monday.

The 5 a.m. advisory said Frances was looking a little ragged and moving at only 9 mph toward the west-northwest. Sustained winds were down from a peak of 145 mph on Thursday.

3703167.jpg
 

speck76

Well-Known Member
FLORIDA HURRICANE PREPARATION

You all should be aware of hurricane preparations, but in case you need a refresher course: We're about to enter the peak of the hurricane season.


Any minute now, you're going to turn on the TV and see a weather person pointing to some radar blob out in the Atlantic Ocean and making two basic meteorological points.

1) There is no need to panic.
2) We could all be killed.

Yes, hurricane season is an exciting time to be in Florida. If you're new to the area, you're probably wondering what you need to do to prepare for the possibility that we'll get hit by "the big one." Based on our insurance industry experiences, we recommend that you follow this simple three-step hurricane preparedness plan:

STEP 1:
Buy enough food and bottled water to last your family for at least three days.

STEP 2:
Put these supplies into your car.

STEP 3:
Drive to Nebraska and remain there until Halloween. Unfortunately, statistics show that most people will not follow this sensible plan. Most people will foolishly stay here in Florida.

We'll start with one of the most important hurricane preparedness items:

HOMEOWNERS' INSURANCE:
If you own a home, you must have hurricane insurance. Fortunately, this insurance is cheap and easy to get, as long as your home meets two basic requirements:

(1) It is reasonably well-built, and
(2) It is located in Wisconsin

Unfortunately, if your home is located in Florida, or any other area that might actually be hit by a hurricane, most insurance companies would prefer not to sell you hurricane insurance, because then they might be required to pay YOU money, and that is certainly not why they got into the insurance business in the first place. So you'll have to scrounge around for an insurance company, which will charge you an annual premium roughly equal to the replacement value of your house. At any moment, this company can drop you like used dental floss.

SHUTTERS:
Your house should have hurricane shutters on all the windows, all the doors. There are several types of shutters, with advantages and disadvantages:

Plywood shutters: The advantage is that, because you make them yourself, they're cheap.

Sheet-metal shutters: The advantage is that these work well, once you get them all up. The disadvantage is that once you get them all up, your hands will be useless bleeding stumps, and it will be December.

Roll-down shutters: The advantages are that they're very easy to use, and will definitely protect your house. The disadvantage is that you will have to sell your house to pay for them.

Hurricane-proof windows: These are the newest wrinkle in hurricane protection: they look like ordinary windows, but they can withstand hurricane winds! You can be sure of this, because the salesman says so; he lives in Nebraska.

Hurricane Proofing your property: As the hurricane approaches, check your yard for movable objects like barbecue grills, planters, patio furniture, visiting relatives, etc.

You should, as a precaution, throw these items into your swimming pool (if you don't have a swimming pool, you should have one built immediately). Otherwise, the hurricane winds will turn these objects into deadly missiles.

EVACUATION ROUTE:
If you live in a low-lying area, you should have an evacuation route planned out. (To determine whether you live in a low-lying area, look at your driver's license; if it says "Florida," you live in a low-lying area). The purpose of having an evacuation route is to avoid being trapped in your home when a major storm hits. Instead, you will be trapped in a gigantic traffic jam several miles from your home, along with two hundred thousand other evacuees. So, as a bonus, you will not be lonely.

HURRICANE SUPPLIES:
If you don't evacuate, you will need a mess of supplies. Do not buy them now! Florida tradition requires that you wait until the last possible minute, then go to the supermarket and get into vicious fights with strangers over who gets the last can of cat food. In addition to food and water, you will need the following supplies:

* 23 flashlights.
* At least $167 worth of batteries that turn out, when the power goes off, to be the wrong size for the flashlights.
*Bleach. (No, I don't know what the bleach is for. NOBODY knows what the bleach is for, but it's traditional, so GET some!)
* A big knife that you can strap to your leg. (This will be useless
in a hurricane, but it looks cool.)
* A large quantity of raw chicken, to placate the alligators. (Ask
anybody who went through Andrew; after the hurricane, there WILL be irate alligators.)
* $35,000 in cash or diamonds so that, after the hurricane passes,
you can buy a generator from a man with no discernible teeth.

Of course these are just basic precautions. As the hurricane draws near, it is vitally important that you keep abreast of the situation by turning on your television and watching TV reporters in rain slickers stand right next to the ocean and tell you over and over how vitally important it is for everybody to stay away from the ocean.

Good luck, and remember: Its great living in Paradise. :D
 

NemoRocks78

Seized
Premium Member
Don't forget the new guy....

000
WTNT34 KNHC 030835
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM IVAN ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM AST FRI SEP 03 2004

...IVAN FORMS OVER FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC...NINTH NAMED STORM OF THE
2004 SEASON...

AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM
IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.0 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 30.7 WEST OR ABOUT 610 MILES... 985 KM...
SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES
... 95 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 5 AM AST POSITION...10.0 N... 30.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM AST.

FORECASTER RHOME/JARVINEN

030853W5.gif
 
brisem said:
Let's hope this continues to weaken.

I hope so too, but it looks like this thing will only get stronger from here. It slowed down a great deal but its entering warm water. Meaning it will have more time to get stronger.
 
NemoRocks78 said:
Don't forget the new guy....

000
WTNT34 KNHC 030835
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM IVAN ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM AST FRI SEP 03 2004

Not another one!
That would be the third one in 4 weeks. Someone down here in Florida must have down something pretty bad.
 

NemoRocks78

Seized
Premium Member
Gov. Bush wants state declared disaster area
By Jeff Kunerth and Maya Bell | Sentinel Staff Writers
Posted September 3, 2004


Thousands jammed airports and highways Thursday seeking to escape Hurricane Frances as the largest evacuation in Florida history got under way.

More than 2.5 million people from Miami north to Flagler County were ordered by Gov. Jeb Bush to flee the coast and low-lying areas.

During a visit to the Brevard County Emergency Operations Center, Bush warned that the storm "is going to hit us. And it's going to hit us hard."

The governor asked his brother, President Bush, to declare the entire state a disaster area. It was the second such request in three weeks, since Charley reawakened Floridians to the horrors of hurricanes.

Theme parks will close early today, and Orlando International Airport will shut down at noon. Unable to extend guests' bookings, hotels were dealing with frantic tourists who had no way to get home.

Frances spent the day wobbling and weakening, even downgrading to a Category 3 late Thursday. But it still was expected to reach land Saturday as a powerful Category 4 storm, with winds of up to 140 mph and possibly dumping 10 to 20 inches of rain. It's forecast to be twice the size of Hurricane Andrew, the costliest storm in U.S. history, which pummeled South Florida in 1992.

Late Thursday, the hurricane center's official 48-hour forecast, which has an average error rate of about 170 miles, had Frances making landfall somewhere between Palm Beach and Cape Canaveral on Saturday morning. Forecasters expected it to cross the peninsula somewhere south of Orlando and emerge north of Tampa into the Gulf of Mexico.

Frances is just as strong as Hurricane Charley, which devastated Florida's southwest coast Aug. 13, but more than twice the size, said Ed Rappaport, assistant director of the National Hurricane Center in Miami.

"This is not going to be a large tornado, like Charley was," state meteorologist Ben Nelson said. "This is going to be a full-fledged hurricane."

The evacuation order for Frances surpassed the 1.3 million people urged to leave during Hurricane Floyd in 1999.

With hurricane-force winds that extend up to 80 miles from its center, Frances could lose forward speed and linger longer over land, which would mean more rain and a dangerous storm surge that could flood low-lying areas.

Hurricane warnings covered most of the state's eastern coast. Wherever Frances comes ashore, forecasters said, the storm surge could exceed 14 feet.

An estimated 14.6 million Florida residents -- 86 percent of the state's population -- are within the projected path of Frances. About 10 million live in the 21 counties along or close to the Atlantic coast, including millions in the state's 840,000 mobile homes.

Few Floridians felt safe from the threat of Frances.

"This is still such a powerful hurricane, we're going to see a massive impact over a large area of the peninsula," said Max Mayfield, director of the National Hurricane Center west of Miami. "We're going to have, I would predict, massive power outages over the whole Florida peninsula."

Volusia County joined Brevard on Thursday in issuing mandatory evacuation of 120,000 residents of manufactured homes, barrier islands and low-lying areas. Volusia also enacted a curfew for all evacuation areas starting at 8 p.m. today. Curfews will be enforced from 8 p.m. to 6 a.m. for the duration of the storm.

Along the "condo canyon" of Daytona Beach Shores, many residents chose to ignore Volusia's evacuation order with the understanding that if Frances arrives, there will be no rescue from the storm.

In her condo complex, Jane Smith said owners in 43 out of the 114 units planned to stick it out.

"This is as safe as anywhere, and it sure beats the heck out of a motel made of cinder block and plywood. This is made of concrete and steel," Smith said.

Volusia County spokeswoman Holly Smith said it's against the law for people to defy a mandatory-evacuation order, "but we are not going to take them out kicking and screaming." Seminole County also issued mandatory-evacuation orders for mobile-home residents and those in flood-prone areas, while Osceola asked residents at risk to voluntarily leave their homes.

In South Florida, the entire city of Miami Beach was ordered to leave, along with 300,000 evacuees in Palm Beach County, 250,000 in Broward County and 320,000 in Miami-Dade County.

Among those leaving Orlando ahead of Frances are the Federal Emergency Management Agency officials who arrived after the departure of Hurricane Charley. FEMA closed its Orlando disaster office Wednesday and left town Thursday.

"You should look at FEMA as visitors -- as your cousin coming in from out of town," Orange County fire Chief Carl Plaugher said.

"From an emergency-services point of view, we don't need them. It's not FEMA that puts Band-Aids on people."

William Carwile, federal coordinating officer for FEMA, said FEMA has pulled nonessential employees back to Atlanta until the storm comes through. But federal teams, including medical personnel and search-and-rescue groups, are poised to work, as are teams that can make a nearly instant assessment of damage and victims' needs, he said.

Public schools in 35 counties -- including all in Central Florida -- are closed today. State universities and colleges canceled classes. Hospitals and nursing homes along the east coast were closing and transferring their patients to other facilities, some as far away as Georgia.

Tolls were suspended on the state's toll roads, but plans to make the Bee Line Expressway a westbound-only highway were scrapped after traffic from Brevard County was lighter than expected.

Across the state, traffic on major highways was heavy but moving steadily, said Col. Chris Knight of the Florida Highway Patrol. But there were bottlenecks and backups throughout the state as residents and visitors followed the evacuation orders.

Florida's Turnpike seemed to be the escape route of choice for east-coast evacuees, and it had backed up traffic for 50 miles Thursday.

Thursday afternoon, northbound traffic on Interstate 95 was a slow-moving bumper-to-bumper nightmare from north of Daytona Beach to the south Brevard County line. Southbound lanes were nearly empty.

Frances is so massive that it has people unsure where to go, fearing they will move into the hurricane's path. The hurricane watch stretched about 300 miles from Florida City, near the state's southern tip, to Flagler Beach, north of Daytona Beach.

"It creates some logistical challenges when a hurricane watch is from Dade County up to Nassau County," said Bush, who suggested that evacuees need only go as far as the nearest shelter. "There are ways to get to a place of safety without having to get on I-95."

State officials hoped to avoid a repeat of the evacuation mess during Hurricane Floyd, when the 1.3 million people told to evacuate backed up traffic for 30 miles or more as people headed inland.

Preparations for Frances stripped bare the shelves of grocery and hardware stores. Gasoline shortages were also reported.

In Vero Beach, Patricia Thomas couldn't find the high-octane gas tat her BMW coupe requires.

"No one has the high-grade," said Thomas, 40, stymied at her sixth station. "I just want to fill up my car and get far away from here. I'm mad, I'm frustrated, I'm scared. I'm not in a good place right now."

In Fort Pierce, mandatory evacuations of the barrier islands began at noon Thursday. By early evening, most residents had fled the exposed barrier islands, and downtown Fort Pierce, which sits exposed on the Indian River, was empty except for a few stragglers making last-minute preparations.

With a projected storm surge of up to 14 feet, the barrier islands, and much of the city's historic downtown, would be underwater.

"We're looking at massive flooding," said police Capt. Terry Barcelona, whose Fort Pierce Police Department headquarters looked like a bunker fortified with sandbags. "Once it passes, we'll open the doors and see what's left."

At The Original Tiki Bar on the city's waterfront, owner Ian Lloyd sat at his empty bar and sipped cold Coors Lights with two of his employees. By the bar was a beach ball on which they had written an offer to give a free beer to whoever returns it after the storm.

"Who knows," Lloyd said. "Maybe they'll find it in Orlando."

Jason Garcia, Jeff Libby, Gwyneth Shaw, Melissa Harris, Roger Roy, Gary Taylor, Robert Perez and Sandra Pedicini, all of the Sentinel staff, contributed to this report. The Associated Press also contributed. Jeff Kunerth can be reached at jkunerth@orlandosentinel.com or 407-420-5392. Maya Bell can be reachedat mbell@orlandosentinel.comor 305-810-5003.
 

speck76

Well-Known Member
Ivan Information

Satellite Intensity Estimates At 06z Were 2.5...or 35 Kt...from Both
Tafb And Sab. Based On This And The Impressive Satellite
Signature...t.d. Nine Is Upgraded To Tropical Storm Ivan. Ivan
Continues To Move On The South Side Of A Subtropical Ridge And
The Initial Motion Is 275/12. Globals Models Indicate That The
Subtropical Ridge Will Move Westward In Tandem With Ivan Through
The Forecast Period. Accordingly...dynamical Models Are In
Excellent Agreement...save Nogaps Which Is Slower And More
Poleward...and There Are No Major Changes To The Official Track.
The Official Forecast Is Very Close To The Model Consensus And
Essentially Maintains A Consistent Forward Speed Of 15 To 17 Knots.

Ivan Is Under The Influence Of Some Easterly Shear And The Low
Level Circulation Is Situated On The Eastern Side Of The Deep
Convection. However...the Shear Is Forecast To Weaken Slightly And
Ivan Will Be Moving Over Very Warm Waters. The Gfdl Continues To
Aggressively Strengthen Ivan To A category Four Hurricane By 84
Hours But This Appears A Bit Much Given The Easterly Shear Will Not
Totally Diminish. The Official Forecast Calls For A More Modest
Strengthening In Line With The Ships And Fsu Super Ensemble.
 

mkt

Disney's Favorite Scumbag™
Premium Member
I'm shacking up at work for this one. I'll hopefully be back in a few days. If we don't lose power at work, I'll try to post from there.

-Rob
 

wannab@dis

Well-Known Member
mkt said:
I'm shacking up at work for this one. I'll hopefully be back in a few days. If we don't lose power at work, I'll try to post from there.

-Rob
Good Luck Rob!

Take care and try to let us know how things are going. We'll be thinking about you guys down in FL. Stay safe!! :)
 

NemoRocks78

Seized
Premium Member
Good luck Rob! :wave:

Hurricane Frances Weakens, Slows On Path To Florida
Strong Winds Still Predicted In Orlando
POSTED: 6:12 pm EDT September 2, 2004
UPDATED: 10:00 am EDT September 3, 2004


The Tropical Prediction Center's projected path for Hurricane Frances on Friday has the storm making landfall near Vero Beach, Fla., midnight Saturday, Local 6 News meteorologist Reynolds Wolf reported.

The storm is expected to continue its march across Florida just south of Orlando at 2 p.m. Sunday, Wolf said. And, according to the latest model, the storm will move through the state and into the Gulf of Mexico.

The Category 3 storm has slowed somewhat, giving residents a little more time to flee what some say could be the most powerful storm to hit the state in more than a decade. The National Hurricane Center says the storm has become somewhat disorganized, but they warn it could re-intensify before slamming into Florida perhaps as early as Saturday morning.
 

mkt

Disney's Favorite Scumbag™
Premium Member
Dave left to Wilderness Lodge, so he's out. I'm leaving soon. So i'm out.
 

The_CEO

Well-Known Member
I'd like to know who the lucky few will stay behind to take care of the animal's in their pen at The Animal Kingdom..
 

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