TEA/AECOM 2013 Report

[GoofGoof]

Another year. Another set of numbers. Nobody believes them...again. Same old story. Using some guys tweet as evidence the numbers are bogus is a new low. If someone tweeted it then it must be true

Based on the publicly released data it makes sense that both Universal and Disney had increases in attendence. The spread between the 4 WDW parks might be off, but the direction makes sense.

If we were to assume for a minute that these numbers were correct is it good news for WDW? On one hand FLE clearly moved the needle on attendance proving that building new attractions will work. On the flip side the other 3 parks still saw gains despite adding nothing. Mixed signals. It really will be interesting to see if Avatar can push significant growth at DAK.

 

[Goofyernmost]

Another year. Another set of numbers. Nobody believes them...again. Same old story. Using some guys tweet as evidence the numbers are bogus is a new low. If someone tweeted it then it must be true

Based on the publicly released data it makes sense that both Universal and Disney had increases in attendence. The spread between the 4 WDW parks might be off, but the direction makes sense.

If we were to assume for a minute that these numbers were correct is it good news for WDW? On one hand FLE clearly moved the needle on attendance proving that building new attractions will work. On the flip side the other 3 parks still saw gains despite adding nothing. Mixed signals. It really will be interesting to see if Avatar can push significant growth at DAK.

The fact that the other parks showed increases in spite of nothing new, isn't surprising really. WDW is a multi-day destination. It may have been FLE (if that is what it was) that fueled the increase, but, the poorer cousins of MK would still benefit because people are there, they might as well visit them. It makes perfect sense.

 

[Phil12]

The fact that the other parks showed increases in spite of nothing new, isn't surprising really. WDW is a multi-day destination. It may have been FLE (if that is what it was) that fueled the increase, but, the poorer cousins of MK would still benefit because people are there, they might as well visit them. It makes perfect sense.

 

[GoofGoof]

The fact that the other parks showed increases in spite of nothing new, isn't surprising really. WDW is a multi-day destination. It may have been FLE (if that is what it was) that fueled the increase, but, the poorer cousins of MK would still benefit because people are there, they might as well visit them. It makes perfect sense.

And that's the problem. If those parks can just ride the coat tails of MK then one could question why you would invest anything in them. Just keep them going, business as usual. Not only are you not losing steam you are showing a marginal gain in attendance.

I guess what I'm saying is if you were in the camp rooting for DHS to hit "rock bottom" so that Disney will actually invest significantly in the park, a 2% increase is not a good thing. A 2% gain is not approaching rock bottom. Not only did IOA not pass DHS in attendance (like some predicted) it actually lost a small amount of ground according to this report.

 

[erstwo]

Two rides for Avatar seems likely, as does a Star Wars area, probably with at least one new ride but 2021, but there is no evidence to support a new country in Epcot or a 5th gate by 2021.

I've got nothing on Epcot, but my husband sits on a non profit board with a recently retired Disney executive. According to what my husband told me, the retiree was directly under the 'big names' people throw around on here. This retiree oversaw some amazing projects for Disney. Several months ago, that retiree shared with my husband that there would be a fifth gate within a decade. No other details from said retiree, citing legal agreements signed with Disney. That's all I've got - but I figure it's a step above a bus driver!

I keep guessing it will be/ was to be Star Wars. If anything has the power to draw in thousands for years to come - it seems to be that crazy franchise. I don't get it, but I know lots of folks who love Star Wars!

 

[TubaGeek]

I maintain that the strongest single thing that DHS and DAK have going for them is the "Disney" at the front of their names.

 

[Goofyernmost]

And that's the problem. If those parks can just ride the coat tails of MK then one could question why you would invest anything in them. Just keep them going, business as usual. Not only are you not losing steam you are showing a marginal gain in attendance.

I guess what I'm saying is if you were in the camp rooting for DHS to hit "rock bottom" so that Disney will actually invest significantly in the park, a 2% increase is not a good thing. A 2% gain is not approaching rock bottom. Not only did IOA not pass DHS in attendance (like some predicted) it actually lost a small amount of ground according to this report.

Not rooting for that at all. DHS needs to be fixed just on general principals. So should Epcot and DAK. It will all hold together for a while, but there are so many things to do in the Orlando area (Uni being only one of them) that before long if nothing is there to pull them in, most will just stay offsite and if they spend 7 days in the area, maybe one or two will be touring WDW. There is plenty to do to fill the rest of the time. That's getting close to what I do. I have a 10 day hopper, non-expiring that I have had since 2011. I have been three times and stay offsite within a mile of WDW and I still have 3 days left to use. The first trip was a 4 day WDW visit. The second was a 1 day and the last was 2 days. The rest of the time was either at Uni or many of the multiple attractions in the immediate area.

Having been to WDW as often as I have accounts for that, however, first time or basic newbie's will probably visit all 4 each time.

 

[The Crafty Veteran]

And that's the problem. If those parks can just ride the coat tails of MK then one could question why you would invest anything in them. Just keep them going, business as usual. Not only are you not losing steam you are showing a marginal gain in attendance.

I guess what I'm saying is if you were in the camp rooting for DHS to hit "rock bottom" so that Disney will actually invest significantly in the park, a 2% increase is not a good thing. A 2% gain is not approaching rock bottom. Not only did IOA not pass DHS in attendance (like some predicted) it actually lost a small amount of ground according to this report.

No matter how hard people want you to believe I still see Universal fighting for Disney's scraps. I don't see a Universal park coming close to a Disney park anytime soon attendance wise. I keep thinking of Mercury Morris.

Its funny when people disrespect Iger by calling him the "weatherman" but to a point its true because he's putting the heat on Comcast. And noy building anything.

 

[NoChesterHester]

Speaking of the fact that you can make number tell nearly any story you want, the thing I get out of staring at those initial numbers (that fits my agenda perfectly) is the fact that it seems that Epcot's growth is the smallest out of all of the major Orlando parks (well, aside from SeaWorld, sorry @Scoutn757 ).
In fact, if we're using about a 2% growth on average in Orlando, then Epcot is the only park that was below that average.
I can take that and say that Epcot is the one park with the need for the most attention out of all of them, since it's got the smallest growth.

If it wasn't for the Festivals to prop up attendance Epcot is really sucking wind.

It also is the park with the most natural capacity. If they would just fix what is there and vacant... It is an absolute cash cow for them. Definitely the easiest park to recoup investment with all the food and beverage options.

 

[NoChesterHester]

So if we take the TEA report at face value then it proves that new attraction investment in parks drives attendance even in a mature market.

A 6% jump at the MK, which I do believe... It has been crowded! That equates to 1,052,000 additional clicks. If we conservatively assume that they take in about $100 per person average / day (ticket, souvineers, food, lodging) then that is over $100mm in a single year. That is without price increases. That 400 million dollar investment will pay back in no time.

Now fix Epcot!

 

[wdwfan4ver]

Not only did IOA not pass DHS in attendance (like some predicted) it actually lost a small amount of ground according to this report.

Why would IOA pass DHS in Attendance in 2013 or this year in 2014 since a new attraction didn't open there since Hogsmeade was open in 2010?

The fact is what Harry Potter did for IOA was increase for the first couple years after it opened and IOA never went down in attendance. Universal had been doing new attractions for USF since Hogsmeade.

 

[cheezbat]

I believe in the hikes of all the WDW and Uni parks...they were so dang crowded all year! People are desperate for new attractions at WDW, and went crazy over the FLE. I'm sure the MK will increase again thanks to the 7 Dwarfs coaster....and possibly a slight Epcot bump since they keep adding more and more festival days...but I think we will see a flat DHS and DAK.

Now Uni on the other hand, IOA a modest uptick, and a huge increase by USF thanks to Diagon.

I don't see a Uni park passing a WDW one until at least 2015-2016,

 

[mm121]

Yeah, a fifth gate is a terrible idea. They need to pump a lot of money into DAK and DHS (and refresh Epcot as well) long before considering another theme park.

a 5th park done correctly and differently would work and would be nothing but an asset to the resort, if they would do the "night kingdom" project that was intended to be a more intimate exclusive experience.

some will say aspects of this have been incorporated into the new plans for DAK

disney really needs something with its villans, it was discussed in another thread in detail though whether this should be done as a seperate park or as a land at MK, most likely a land at MK though due to the overhead of having an independant park.

epcot does need more countries to fill out the world showcase
and its nice to see money being put into dak
and the rumors about starwars at dhs, id rather see starwars than a duplicated cars land from dca

 

[WDWDad13]

a 5th park done correctly and differently would work and would be nothing but an asset to the resort, if they would do the "night kingdom" project that was intended to be a more intimate exclusive experience.

some will say aspects of this have been incorporated into the new plans for DAK

disney really needs something with its villans, it was discussed in another thread in detail though whether this should be done as a seperate park or as a land at MK, most likely a land at MK though due to the overhead of having an independant park.

epcot does need more countries to fill out the world showcase
and its nice to see money being put into dak
and the rumors about starwars at dhs, id rather see starwars than a duplicated cars land from dca

I definitely agree with the Villians land or theme park etc. but please, somewhere else besides MK. DHS might be a good place and we all know it needs TLC

Frozen land could be interesting too and as it may fit best in fantasyland, let's spread out the MK crowds out to other parks instead of just adding more and more people to MK. It's bad enough now

 

[TubaGeek]

I'm sure the MK will increase again thanks to the 7 Dwarfs coaster....and possibly a slight Epcot bump since they keep adding more and more festival days...but I think we will see a flat DHS and DAK.

Here's the catch, though: as long as MK goes up, the other Disney parks will go up a little, simply by riding MK's coat tails.

 

[ParentsOf4]

Another year. Another set of numbers. Nobody believes them...again. Same old story. Using some guys tweet as evidence the numbers are bogus is a new low. If someone tweeted it then it must be true

Based on the publicly released data it makes sense that both Universal and Disney had increases in attendence. The spread between the 4 WDW parks might be off, but the direction makes sense.

If we were to assume for a minute that these numbers were correct is it good news for WDW? On one hand FLE clearly moved the needle on attendance proving that building new attractions will work. On the flip side the other 3 parks still saw gains despite adding nothing. Mixed signals. It really will be interesting to see if Avatar can push significant growth at DAK.

The TEA numbers for growth at Disney’s combined 6 domestic theme parks are consistent with theme park attendance growth reported by Disney in their 10K/10Q.

This has been true since 2005, which suggests that either TEA’s growth estimates are uncannily accurate for the better part of a decade or someone at TEA sanity-checks their numbers with Disney’s financial disclosures.

To be clear, Disney does not report attendance. However, Disney has reported percent changes in attendance every year since 2004. Until 2008, Disney reported separate West Coast and East Coast attendance changes. Since then, they have reported separate domestic and international numbers.

Even in WDW’s best years, combined attendance for MK and Epcot never got above 24M before Michael Eisner put a halt to the practice of publically dislosing attendance. This was at a time when WDW operated only 2 theme parks.

With 3 theme parks, the Orlando Sentinal reported in a 1994 article that attendance peaked at 33.7M in 1990. With Disney-MGM Studios, Typhoon Lagoon, and Pleasure Island all opening in 1989, 1990 was a year of tremendous excitement at WDW.

Throughout 2013, Disney executives discussed strong gains at the Magic Kingdom (MK) but rarely (perhaps even never) mentioned attendance at WDW's other theme parks. The 6% gain reported at MK is not an unreasonable estimate, given corporate Disney's guidance and taking into consideration the New Fantasyland.

The problems at DHS and DAK are centered on retention. Those parks can be crowded in the morning and afternoon but typically clear out at night as everyone heads to MK, making WDW as a whole less efficient to operate.

Today’s WDW has the same lopsided crowd problem that DLR had before the opening of Cars Land, especially at night.

There’s a reason DAK needs a nighttime show and Pandora, while DHS needs Star Wars Land plus more.

 

[seascape]

The TEA numbers for growth at Disney’s combined 6 domestic theme parks are consistent with theme park attendance growth reported by Disney in their 10K/10Q.

This has been true since 2005, which suggests that either TEA’s growth estimates are uncannily accurate for the better part of a decade or someone at TEA sanity-checks their numbers with Disney’s financial disclosures.

To be clear, Disney does not report attendance. However, Disney has reported percent changes in attendance every year since 2004. Until 2008, Disney reported separate West Coast and East Coast attendance changes. Since then, they have reported separate domestic and international numbers.

Even in WDW’s best years, combined attendance for MK and Epcot never got above 24M before Michael Eisner put a halt to the practice of publically dislosing attendance. This was at a time when WDW operated only 2 theme parks.

With 3 theme parks, the Orlando Sentinal reported in a 1994 article that attendance peaked at 33.7M in 1990. With Disney-MGM Studios, Typhoon Lagoon, and Pleasure Island all opening in 1989, 1990 was a year of tremendous excitement at WDW.

Throughout 2013, Disney executives discussed strong gains at the Magic Kingdom (MK) but rarely (perhaps even never) mentioned attendance at WDW's other theme parks. The 6% gain reported at MK is not an unreasonable estimate, given corporate Disney's guidance and taking into consideration the New Fantasyland.

The problems at DHS and DAK are centered on retention. Those parks can be crowded in the morning and afternoon but typically clear out at night as everyone heads to MK, making WDW as a whole less efficient to operate.

Today’s WDW has the same lopsided crowd problem that DLR had before the opening of Cars Land, especially at night.

There’s a reason DAK needs a nighttime show and Pandora, while DHS needs Star Wars Land plus more.

You are right. Disney does need improvements and the other 3 parks. Pandora and the night time show will help. Restoring Epson will help. But DHS needs the most help. Not only adding rides and attractions but an expansion into one of the parking lots. It is just not big enough to hold crowds needed to draw 15 million a year. Doing what has been discussed some of which is being built now will help solve the problem in the short run but more is needed.

The MK can't continue to carry everything. That is why a 5th gate just to the west of it is needed. There is a limit to what can be done in the the MK and rather than just expand to the west a 5th gate does make better use of the land and would help the bottom line. The attendance numbers speak for themselves. 20 million at the MK has to be near total capacity. Even if the went to 20 hours a day I can't see capacity at more than 25 million. Something has to be done and that is 5th gate next to the MK.

 

[Jeffxz]

Generally a person is counted as visiting a theme park with the first theme park they visit that day.

For example if you start your day at Epcot and then hop to studios and then finish your day at Magic Kingdom… You are counted as only and Epcot guest.

I realize this is how Disney counts attendance, but I don't think I have seen it confirmed anywhere that TEA numbers are using the same methodology.

 

[seascape]

I realize this is how Disney counts attendance, but I don't think I have seen it confirmed anywhere that TEA numbers are using the same methodology.

If they count attendance for both parks as you would like to say then Universal is much lower than 15 million. In fact starting in a couple of weeks any one who rides the hogwartz express counts as attending both parks. What universal is actually doing is making people by the park to park ticket. This does raise their revenue by a large amount and based on what you are saying doubles their attendance count. In fact it does much higher than Disney park hopping because it's used by 100% of the customers buying it.

 

[Lord_Vader]

Current wait times on a summer day at DHS. You think they get 30K gate clicks today?
Muppet*Vision 3D
Streets of America
5 Min
Rock 'n' Roller Coaster Starring Aerosmith
Sunset Boulevard
30 Min
Star Tours - The Adventures Continue
Echo Lake
10 Min
Studio Backlot Tour
Streets of America
10 Min
The Great Movie Ride
Hollywood Boulevard
10 Min
The Twilight Zone Tower of Terror
Sunset Boulevard
20 Min
Toy Story Midway Mania!
Pixar Place
60 Min
Data last refreshed: 2014-06-03 15:40:01

This year many schools in the mid-south and mid-west are not out until later this month, local schools are not out until the 11th because of the very high number of snow days. This will affect tourism tremendously.