TEA/AECOM 2013 Report

[Disneyhead'71]

No one uses "first clicks" anymore except for crowd flow reasons. Ever since the biometric scanners came into play, they have every sort of admission info they could want.

 

[Lord_Vader]

I don't think DHS attendance makes much difference in the grand scheme of things, but MK's attendance drives everything, because it has nearly double the visitors of any other park in Orlando, but it seems that the MK has finally reached a point of critical mass in terms of attendance, they expanded FL and the Bus stops, and now the Hub and Main Street By-pass to deal with the crowds. At a certain point you just can't fit anymore people in that one park and need to build out the other 3 parks to disperse the crowds, which is what they sloooowly seem to be doing now

Without infrastructure you cannot support the masses, but infrastructure is expensive and takes time to build correctly and doesn't add a noticeable impact to a customer experience but without it a good experience can quickly become a horrible experience. You are correct that MK is nearing its capacity as is, all the projects for WDW in general are infrastructure based including MDE/MM+ to support ever growing numbers of guests. Everything points to WDW growth patterns stripping supply of all resources from park capacity, transportation, dining to attractions and they are preparing for the growth without adding the pieces many on the boards think are necessary to compete but could not support if another 5M guests show up to ride a new E-Ticket attraction.

 

[seascape]

my nephew works at DHS and he said 22,000 was there yesterday June 3
crowds were pretty light

22,000 a day would be 8 million a year. It only takes 27,398 a day to average 10 million.

 

[twebber55]

22,000 a day would be 8 million a year. It only takes 27,398 a day to average 10 million.

for the record he said 37000 for June 2

 

[PhotoDave219]

for the record he said 37000 for June 2

Thanks. What are they expecting for SWW this weekend? (Pm if necessary)

 

[twebber55]

Thanks. What are they expecting for SWW this weekend? (Pm if necessary)

don't quote me but it seems he said last weekend was like 50000
gotta think there will be a ton for Mark Hamil

 

[PhotoDave219]

don't quote me but it seems he said last weekend was like 50000
gotta thank there will be a ton for Mark Hamil

Saturday, yeah that seems right.

This weekend? Oh boy. Guess I better rope drop.

 

[seascape]

2014 biggest battle will be how Disney's next gen does against Universal's HP2. I know HP2 will be amazing but can Disney keep people on proerty by offereing fast passes every day in advance or will the draw of waiting in the long lines for HP2 win out. Will technology win or the old fashion great ride? I did not think about this until just now but this is the first year Fast Pass Plus and MDE and working completely for everyone. It iwll be interesting.

 

[donsullivan]

No one uses "first clicks" anymore except for crowd flow reasons. Ever since the biometric scanners came into play, they have every sort of admission info they could want.

I've always understood that Disney's use of the 'first-click' model had nothing to do with attendance tracking (that was a separate data element) but was driven by revenue accounting, since they cannot book the revenue from a ticket purchase until it's actually used to enter a park. Prior to that point, from an accounting standpoint, an admission ticket is like a Gift Card where they do not actually show revenue (it's held in a deferred revenue account) until the ticket is redeemed at the 'turnstyle'. When you make that 'first-click' then some predefined portion of the ticket value is allocated to that park and Disney can record the admission revenue for the park.

That deferred revenue model was one of the drivers for the addition of the incremental charge for no-expiration of ticket media. Disney wanted to reduce the amount of deferred revenue they were holding in those accounts for extended periods of time.

 

[danlb_2000]

2014 biggest battle will be how Disney's next gen does against Universal's HP2. I know HP2 will be amazing but can Disney keep people on proerty by offereing fast passes every day in advance or will the draw of waiting in the long lines for HP2 win out. Will technology win or the old fashion great ride? I did not think about this until just now but this is the first year Fast Pass Plus and MDE and working completely for everyone. It iwll be interesting.

I would say new ride by a mile.

 

[seascape]

I would say new ride by a mile.

That was my original though which is why I think Universal will have a 10 to 15 percent gain in attendance. I originally was thinking Disney would be much smaller in percentage terms. I think anything over a 2 percent gain at WDW will be due to the technology and as a stockholder will be very interested in next year's numbers.

 

[danlb_2000]

That was my original though which is why I think Universal will have a 10 to 15 percent gain in attendance. I originally was thinking Disney would be much smaller in percentage terms. I think anything over a 2 percent gain at WDW will be due to the technology and as a stockholder will be very interested in next year's numbers.

But the only park at WDW that saw a greater then 2% increase was MK, which happens to be the only one that has just gotten major new attractions, so the increase could be a result of that. Also MyMagic+ was just ramping up last year so I don't think you would really see it's impact until this year.

 

[seascape]

But the only park at WDW that saw a greater then 2% increase was MK, which happens to be the only one that has just gotten major new attractions, so the increase could be a result of that. Also MyMagic+ was just ramping up last year so I don't think you would really see it's impact until this year.

I agree with you that it is next year's numbers that will show how next gen is working. That is what I thought I said. The biggest problem Disney faces is that MK does have a capacity issue than needs to be addressed. I think the limit is 25 million a year maybe a bit higher with longer hours. But that is only 33 percent higher than this year's and in 7 years they should be there since that is where most of their growth is.

Universal on the other hand also has about a combined capacity limit of about 25 million also. But a 15 percent pain in attendance in 2014 would bring them to about 18 million and give them the same problem. The need to determine how to expand and what the costs would be.

Just think the combined Orlando attendance in 2021 for Disney, Universal and Sea World will probably be over 100 million. They already are approximately 70 million so it's just a 43 percent gain in 8 years, 2013 to 2021. With compounding and WDW 50th anniversary that is very reasonable.

 

[wm49rs]

I agree with you that it is next year's numbers that will show how next gen is working. That is what I thought I said. The biggest problem Disney faces is that MK does have a capacity issue than needs to be addressed. I think the limit is 25 million a year maybe a bit higher with longer hours. But that is only 33 percent higher than this year's and in 7 years they should be there since that is where most of their growth is.

Universal on the other hand also has about a combined capacity limit of about 25 million also. But a 15 percent pain in attendance in 2014 would bring them to about 18 million and give them the same problem. The need to determine how to expand and what the costs would be.

Just think the combined Orlando attendance in 2021 for Disney, Universal and Sea World will probably be over 100 million. They already are approximately 70 million so it's just a 43 percent gain in 8 years, 2013 to 2021. With compounding and WDW 50th anniversary that is very reasonable.

What do you think they've been doing in the MK for the past several years? Dropping monorail footers?

 

[Disneyhead'71]

What do you think they've been doing in the MK for the past several years? Dropping monorail footers?

And yet their capacity issues are worse than ever. And nothing even on the horizon to help. Overcrowded and micromanaged are two words that I don't like to use when describing "vacation".

 

[jt04]

I agree with you that it is next year's numbers that will show how next gen is working. That is what I thought I said. The biggest problem Disney faces is that MK does have a capacity issue than needs to be addressed. I think the limit is 25 million a year maybe a bit higher with longer hours. But that is only 33 percent higher than this year's and in 7 years they should be there since that is where most of their growth is.

Universal on the other hand also has about a combined capacity limit of about 25 million also. But a 15 percent pain in attendance in 2014 would bring them to about 18 million and give them the same problem. The need to determine how to expand and what the costs would be.

Just think the combined Orlando attendance in 2021 for Disney, Universal and Sea World will probably be over 100 million. They already are approximately 70 million so it's just a 43 percent gain in 8 years, 2013 to 2021. With compounding and WDW 50th anniversary that is very reasonable.

I think this is why DAK is getting such a push. Or at least the main reason. Drives crowds as far from the MK as possible. A wise strategy. I think DAK has potential as a two day park.

 

[WDW1974]

I guess having a professional organization report numbers is not acceptable to you. You obviously know more than I could ever know and I am just stupid for believing an impartial organization. After all we all know Universal has the best attended theme parks in the world.

Ah, fresh blood. Do you know the metrics TEA uses? Do you know what folks in the business think of their methodology? And while I don't think they are playing with the numbers for Disney, I do think they are buying into funny numbers.

And who said a damn thing about UNI?

 

[WDW1974]

Increases are correct, overall numbers are not.

I buy that ...

 

[WDW1974]

TDR actually has a worthwhile gate next door though to help keep numbers in check. The only times I've been to TDR it's been slow to pretty dead (of course one was May 2011 after the earthquake). I realize those times are few and far between though.

I would throw out the post-earthquake 2011 period entirely. It would be akin to the fall of 2001 at WDW if not worse.

My last visit to TDR was relatively slow, but a relatively slow day at TDL saw multiple attractions with multi-hour waits and nothing was close to a walk-on, even if you waited 20 minutes.

I know people who live in Tokyo and frequent the parks with APs and friends who fly in monthly. The ridiculous waits, like five hours for TSMM are not made up and they are not exaggerated (you know, like seeing a WDW Space Mountain line posted as 45 minutes when it is about 20-25 minutes etc).

 

[WDW1974]

I have to chuckle at these numbers and how people try to fix them for their own needs. My observations about them is it looks as if Potter is starting to lose steam and might not be the great IP everyone wants it to be. You could make a discussion about its been an attractive short term infusion of people but after a few years its really lost it luster.

One thing that is for certain though, how long before the studios in Paris get a billion dollar make over.

Funny, I was saying the same thing about Snow White ... a movie that came out before World War II.

Seriously, if you think Potter has lost steam, then you're losing a grasp on the obvious ... unless you think Potter 1.0 is supposed to result in annual 40% increases. Is that what you think?