TEA/AECOM 2013 Report

[doctornick]

Having 30K people in the park a day is different from having 30K pass through the gates each day.

I was thinking the same thing. Having 30K attendance in one day doesn't mean 30K people are all there at once. A park like DHS is certainly going to have people come and stay at various times during the day (morning rush for TSMM, people who come at night to watch Fantasmic!).

 

[BrianLo]

I don't believe for a second that Tokyo Disneyland is seeing over 1 million fewer guests per year than the Magic Kingdom. That's even accounting for park size and my estimations of capacity.

Anyone who has been to TDL can tell you that MK only approaches their typical crowds about two weeks a year, if that.

TDR actually has a worthwhile gate next door though to help keep numbers in check. The only times I've been to TDR it's been slow to pretty dead (of course one was May 2011 after the earthquake). I realize those times are few and far between though.

 

[seascape]

DHS's numbers on the busiest times of the year is in the 30s. If the park was averaging 27K throughout the year, it would constantly feel like it was packed.



To quote Yoda, "Size matters not."

DAK is physically a larger park, but has far fewer attractions to soak up crowds than both Universal parks.

You are right about the number of attraction but Lion King and Nemo can handle large crowds. Also did you see the aerial photos of Pandora? Much bigger than anyone thought it would be.

 

[GLaDOS]

You are right about the number of attraction but Lion King and Nemo can handle large crowds. Also did you see the aerial photos of Pandora? Much bigger than anyone thought it would be.

No, it's exactly how big we all knew it would be. That plot of land was where the land was going. No surprises at all

 

[danlb_2000]

You are right about the number of attraction but Lion King and Nemo can handle large crowds. Also did you see the aerial photos of Pandora? Much bigger than anyone thought it would be.

It's actually about the size we expected based on the plot of land they chose.

 

[The Crafty Veteran]

I have to chuckle at these numbers and how people try to fix them for their own needs. My observations about them is it looks as if Potter is starting to lose steam and might not be the great IP everyone wants it to be. You could make a discussion about its been an attractive short term infusion of people but after a few years its really lost it luster.

One thing that is for certain though, how long before the studios in Paris get a billion dollar make over.

 

[COProgressFan]

No, we've finally matched 1991 numbers when 18 million people came for MK's 20th

May be so, but all those venues were still open in 1991. For hosting 18 million+ guests, the MK may actually have fewer locations open for guests, as well as less entertainment.

 

[wannab@dis]

If the numbers had shown huge increases for Universal and losses for Disney, the same people trying to rationalize that the numbers are wrong, would be singing the praises of the report. Having good numbers released for WDW just doesn't fit their world view (pun intended) so they resort to sour grapes. Whether the numbers are exactly correct or not, the report shows a few things that are upsetting to some of the posters around here.

1) Disney added more guests overall than Uni. So the idea that people started coming to Uni and added a day for Disney doesn't work. It may make that turn sometime in the future (doubtful) but it's clear that more people come for Disney and add a day (or two) for Uni.
2) Many stated over the past several years that IoA would surpass either/both of DHS and DAK. It's not happened and doesn't appear to be happening in the near future, if ever. The percentage growth is about the same for each of the parks, except US gains and MK gains. Most likely, US simply added due to the increase of IoA and it's now getting back to the numbers they used to have. The current work will be a benefit and it will be interesting to see how the numbers play out over the next few years.
3) It's fairly obvious that MK increase is a strong outlier from the other 3 Disney parks. My bet is that the new Fantasyland played a big role. So, the idea the Fantasyland updates wouldn't affect the attendance just doesn't match the facts.
4) WDW and Uni saw good increases in numbers. So far, it doesn't appear the price increases have hurt either location, even with the lagging economy.

 

[danlb_2000]

I have to chuckle at these numbers and how people try to fix them for their own needs. My observations about them is it looks as if Potter is starting to lose steam and might not be the great IP everyone wants it to be. You could make a discussion about its been an attractive short term infusion of people but after a few years its really lost it luster.

One thing that is for certain though, how long before the studios in Paris get a billion dollar make over.

As you say, it depends how you read the numbers. IOA got a big increase in attendance when Potter opened. Last year's report as well as this year's both show a small year over year increase, but since the percent increase is not going negative it means that IOA has held on to the Potter bump and is still adding on top of it.

 

[wannab@dis]

A couple more thoughts... Pandora is being added to DAK, but DHS and Epcot need investment to keep the momentum. It's clear that investment has helped MK, DCA, IoA so maybe that investment will be turned loose soon. I can't imagine there are any plans for a 5th gate as too much needs to be done at the other parks.

 

[twebber55]

Yes, but it's still going be interesting to see how it impacts the IOA number, especially with the Hogwarts Express ride connecting the two parks.

you ll see a bump around 5/6% at IOA...I believe that's what you saw at Universal when HP opened

 

[twebber55]

As you say, it depends how you read the numbers. IOA got a big increase in attendance when Potter opened. Last year's report as well as this year's both show a small year of year increase, but since the percent increase is going negative it means that IOA has held on to the Potter bump and is still adding on top of it.

exactly...they re not losing people since the big bump

 

[seascape]

I don't think we should read too much into the numbers yet. I think there are probably many universal fans who may have held back their vacation waiting for HP2. I expect the numbers for 2014 to be better for Universal than Disney. That does not mean that Disney will not grow but a 3% growth of 50 million is 1.5 million and a 10% for universal would be about 1.8 million. It is only reasonable given all the attention to HP2 in the news that Universal should grow faster for the next year or so. Give Universal credit and wait for the Disney growth in the following years but remember Orlando wins when they both win and both will do better together than either would do alone.

 

[BrianLo]

I have to chuckle at these numbers and how people try to fix them for their own needs. My observations about them is it looks as if Potter is starting to lose steam and might not be the great IP everyone wants it to be. You could make a discussion about its been an attractive short term infusion of people but after a few years its really lost it luster.

How so? Is a 2010 addition supposed to increase attendance exponentially indefinitely? That's a silly assertion.

It only loses its lustre if the parks start hemorrhaging attendance, but if they maintain a steady population based increase it means the bump from the addition is "sustained".

DCA attendance will eventually flatten out as well, it doesn't mean the additions have lost their lustre, just that the true attendance bump will level off. It seems to take about 2.5 years for this to happen fully. Which is why parks need additions about every 3 years (or at least an anniversary to help artificially bump attendance).

Pre-Potter attendance at IOA was 4.6 million. It now stands at 8.1 and they've done very little with that park since Potter.

Please fix those numbers to fit your argument again.

 

[donsullivan]

exactly...they re not losing people since the big bump

That is a key point. IoA saw a very big bump in the first 2 years after WWoHP opened and then in 2012 & 2013 grew at about the same 2-4% rate of the overall Orlando market atop that new baseline. It's also important to keep in mind that the Potter bump came after 6 years of steady decline in their numbers where they declined from 6.1M in 2002 down to 4.6M in 2009.

There is no question that the investment in HP had a very positive impact on them but it can also be said that since they had made very little investment in that park for nearly a decade, almost any investment was going to drive a bump in attendance. That bump was certainly heightened by the quality of the HP investment.

 

[RSoxNo1]

you ll see a bump around 5/6% at IOA...I believe that's what you saw at Universal when HP opened

Keep in mind that the Hogwarts Express is going to both IOA and USF and King Kong may be opening in 2015.

 

[PhotoDave219]

May be so, but all those venues were still open in 1991. For hosting 18 million+ guests, the MK may actually have fewer locations open for guests, as well as less entertainment.

That would be something fun to compare.

Hey @ParentsOf4 ..... How many attractions and entertainment offerings did the Magic Kingdom have in 1991? I don't have the ability to look this up.

Anyone have a park map from then?

 

[WDWFigment]

TDR actually has a worthwhile gate next door though to help keep numbers in check. The only times I've been to TDR it's been slow to pretty dead (of course one was May 2011 after the earthquake). I realize those times are few and far between though.

You will be in for a real treat when you go on one of the increasingly common 90,000 to 100,000 guests days, then! Actually, Tokyo Disneyland does a great job of soaking up crowds, and as you can expect, crowd control is exceptional. We were there on a couple of days last Christmas-season during which tickets were sold out days in advance. Of course, our perception of crowd management might have helped by Country Bear Christmas, which was our main interest, and even on a capacity day, shows are only 75% full.

Those 85,000+ guest days (aka "weekends") and the fact that we know TEA's numbers for Tokyo Disneyland are accurate are my basis for questioning whether the WDW numbers are inflated. Even if the two parks are hitting ~40,000/guests on an average weekday, Magic Kingdom isn't nearly as crowded as Tokyo Disneyland is virtually every weekend of the year.

I just don't see how you get to 18m for MK and 17m for TDL unless you're liberally counting park hoppers. In that case, it makes sense, as park hopping is uncommon at TDR.

 

[BrianLo]

I just don't see how you get to 18m for MK and 17m for TDL unless you're liberally counting park hoppers. In that case, it makes sense, as park hopping is uncommon at TDR.

Yes, and don't forget everyone is rushing into TDS for Toy Story fast passes. I'm sure actual TDL attendance is somewhat more elevated than the numbers show.

On the attendance note, I judge the crowds by the Mysterious Island Gyoza stand. It's always been a walk-up for me. (Hint... go late June or early July, it probably helped that TSMM was down for refurb).

 

[sshindel]

Speaking of the fact that you can make number tell nearly any story you want, the thing I get out of staring at those initial numbers (that fits my agenda perfectly) is the fact that it seems that Epcot's growth is the smallest out of all of the major Orlando parks (well, aside from SeaWorld, sorry @Scoutn757 ).
In fact, if we're using about a 2% growth on average in Orlando, then Epcot is the only park that was below that average.
I can take that and say that Epcot is the one park with the need for the most attention out of all of them, since it's got the smallest growth.