Spirited News & Observations II -- NGE/Baxter

ParentsOf4

Well-Known Member
I want to tap onto the notion of "Disney will build in South America by 2020." That idea is flat out laughable. There is no way Disney would even have a drunken dream about building in the market that is keeping WDW afloat. It would kill the Florida business and cause it hurt more than it is now.
IMHO, Disney would pursue an expansion in South America if there was a deep-pocketed local sponsor willing to foot the bill. The decision likely would come down to what would be most profitable as a whole, not specifically what's best for WDW individually.
 

bubbles1812

Well-Known Member
Who is this "they" that acknowledged this? Do you have some proof?
Just search thru the many various threads involving the conference calls and shareholder meetings. There are quotes from Iger and the like involving what I referenced. Im not searching thru the whole forum for things that have been discussed and confirmed as nauseum. Sorry. It's common knowledge at this point.
 

GoofGoof

Premium Member
That could very well be true, but it is just slight of hand. The discounted rates are still higher then what can be found just a few feet off the property. They just charge so much to begin with that they can slash prices by large percentages and still be more expensive then the competition. How long will it take to get that to sink in to everyones head. Who knows? But it will eventually.

It's like furniture. They can "sacrifice" and slash prices by 50% because they already raised them by 75%. Hey, maybe WDW can have a going out of business sale and miraculously be able to recover and stay open until the next going out of business sale.:p

I don't know if it ever will. High end retail stores have existed forever and still do well. People still buy a Lexus when its the same car as a Toyota with a different symbol on the hood. People will pay more even when they know they could get a pretty similar product cheaper. The other factor is the public loves a deal or a bargain. Like you said if they raise prices 75% and then slash them 50% the psychological impact of the 50% discount drives sales. Just like a department store jewelry counter where they almost always have some large sale with a big % off. Disney is the king of slight of hand. Free dining, multi-day passes, DME, all things that look like a good deal to you but are also designed to keep you on property.
 

ScoutN

OV 104
Premium Member
IMHO, Disney would pursue an expansion in South America if there was a deep-pocketed local sponsor willing to foot the bill. The decision likely would come down to what would be most profitable as a whole, not specifically what's best for WDW individually.

AS that could be a case it would hurt WDW significantly. The quarterly reports show significant uprisings in South American visitors. I fear to see how bad it would get if they lost a reason to go to Florida. With TDO clearly having zero interest in plussing parks I have no idea how they would compensate.
 

GoofGoof

Premium Member
Just search thru the many various threads involving the conference calls and shareholder meetings. There are quotes from Iger and the like involving what I referenced. Im not searching thru the whole forum for things that have been discussed and confirmed as nauseum. Sorry. It's common knowledge at this point.

I haven't followed all of the threads around here as closely in the past few months so its possible I missed this. I did listen to the earnings call and read through the press release and I don't remember hearing Iger or anyone else talk about FLE in any negative way. I thought they actually talked about it being successful and attendance at WDW actually being up.
 

bubbles1812

Well-Known Member
I haven't followed all of the threads around here as closely in the past few months so its possible I missed this. I did listen to the earnings call and read through the press release and I don't remember hearing Iger or anyone else talk about FLE in any negative way. I thought they actually talked about it being successful and attendance at WDW actually being up.
It's one of those "lets talk positive for the shareholders" but acknowledge we have some problems in private type of things, I believe. But the gist is the expected NFE to provide a Carsland type bump but the thing is NFE simple isn't Carsland on any scale. It's nice but not quite the crowd drawer they expected or wanted it to be. Think it was Rasulo who acknowledged that WDW attendance has been fairly minimal. Though I guess some people consider 1% growth good... I simply don't, especially not in comparison to its main competitor. And that is a definite reflection of the offerings Disney has put out in the past few years.
 

George

Liker of Things
Premium Member
It's the Kohls/old JC Penney model. No one with half a brain actually pays full retail (either get a discount or some benefit like "free" dining), but the people who do pay think they're getting a bargain. It depends largely on a less-discerning customer base--a Spirited Observer might say "rubes"--who don't know what prices and amenities are standard for higher-end hotels.

You're 100% correct, but there is a difference. There are a lot of good deals actually available at Kohls...I know you acknowledge this by mentioning that many people don't know what prices and amenities are standard at higher end joints. I still long for the days when Disney provided a good family vacation for a good value. Life, even for a company, is more than dollars and cents. They are still living off of the good will and trust they earned for several decades, but at some point that will have completely eroded and they will be faced with a choice, lower prices or make the resort offerings worth the cost. Or sell the place. Who knows....
 

Rodan75

Well-Known Member
AS that could be a case it would hurt WDW significantly. The quarterly reports show significant uprisings in South American visitors. I fear to see how bad it would get if they lost a reason to go to Florida. With TDO clearly having zero interest in plussing parks I have no idea how they would compensate.

I don't disagree, but folks were saying the same thing before TDL, I suspect they would do something small like HKDL, if get get a good partner. South America is too big of an untapped market to not expand there.
 

George

Liker of Things
Premium Member
I don't disagree, but folks were saying the same thing before TDL, I suspect they would do something small like HKDL, if get get a good partner. South America is too big of an untapped market to not expand there.

I think the dress code at RDL (Rio Disneyland) will last for 3.4 days before they throw in the towel. Or, perhaps, have towels available for covering up.
 

Genie of the Lamp

Well-Known Member

GoofGoof

Premium Member
It's one of those "lets talk positive for the shareholders" but acknowledge we have some problems in private type of things, I believe. But the gist is the expected NFE to provide a Carsland type bump but the thing is NFE simple isn't Carsland on any scale. It's nice but not quite the crowd drawer they expected or wanted it to be. Think it was Rasulo who acknowledged that WDW attendance has been fairly minimal. Though I guess some people consider 1% growth good... I simply don't, especially not in comparison to its main competitor. And that is a definite reflection of the offerings Disney has put out in the past few years.

I do remember someone on the call saying something like the attendance at WDW was up a hair so they acknowledged that it was not up significantly. I guess it depends on how much of an increase they were expecting which they will of course not say publicly. I believe there was a thread around here with a link to an Al Lutz article claiming that Carsland will be open in DHS by 2015 due to the poor showing of FLE. I don't know that I believe that to really be true. 2015 seems unlikely anyway.
 

PhotoDave219

Well-Known Member
Well, you do literally get what you pay for, because you are essentially paying for the Disney name - and that's what you get. Theme, location and transportation are arguably better on-property, although a few off-property locations are actually closer (particularly to AK) than Disney's own resorts. I would love to know if there has been a change in off-property occupancy, especially during the busy summer travel season when Disney should be largely occupied. It used to be said that many guests of Disney's value resorts were people who used to stay in moderate or deluxe before value came along. I have to wonder now if many Fairfield or Hampton Inn guests are folks who used to stay at Pop Century.

Even if reports of busy parks aren't always 100% reliable, I have to wonder if the parks may be doing better than the resorts, which would be interesting given that the supposed major competition for WDW this summer are expansions in Sea World and Universal's parks.

Hey now, I'm accurate with my observational reports. I take offense to that.

Lately the parks have been busy but projections have been below average (under 47k). I expect that to change as schools get out soon.
 

bubbles1812

Well-Known Member
I do remember someone on the call saying something like the attendance at WDW was up a hair so they acknowledged that it was not up significantly. I guess it depends on how much of an increase they were expecting which they will of course not say publicly. I believe there was a thread around here with a link to an Al Lutz article claiming that Carsland will be open in DHS by 2015 due to the poor showing of FLE. I don't know that I believe that to really be true. 2015 seems unlikely anyway.
I don't know if poor showing is the exact right word for it but my impression has at least been that NFE is not performing to the level they expected... Though I guess when you expect Carsland level numbers for not even a full land where the biggest thing is a restaurant you set yourself up for disappointment. I seriously don't get it. For months to years, people have been saying that on here and yet the people who run the company couldn't figure it out. And the slow role out was an extremely poor choice. 2015... Agree on that one. I don't see anything built before 2017/2018z
 

PhotoDave219

Well-Known Member
I cannot provide proof.

Occupancy percentage is down but rising. There's a catch up period whenever new rooms are built. Attendance is climbing too. I'm not the biggest New Fantasyland supporter but they're not lying when they say it's having an impact.

I agree - based on observations and a few other things - that NewFant is having an impact but I don't think its having the impact that management was predicting.
 

ParentsOf4

Well-Known Member
I do remember someone on the call saying something like the attendance at WDW was up a hair so they acknowledged that it was not up significantly. I guess it depends on how much of an increase they were expecting which they will of course not say publicly. I believe there was a thread around here with a link to an Al Lutz article claiming that Carsland will be open in DHS by 2015 due to the poor showing of FLE. I don't know that I believe that to really be true. 2015 seems unlikely anyway.
Al Lutz wrote the following:
But over the Christmas break a fire was lit under a few key Burbank executives when it was realized WDW’s New Fantasyland project wasn’t pulling in the numbers or customer satisfaction ratings that had been hoped for. WDW’s hotel occupancy and spending numbers have been hurting for several years, and they were hoping for a big bump from New Fantasyland and its lone new attraction, a clone of the Little Mermaid omnimover. New Fantasyland hasn’t give them the bump they needed, and the customer satisfaction results are showing that it won’t be driving the new attendance or spending gains that WDW really needs in the next few years. And there’s currently nothing under construction in WDW, while their Universal and Sea World competitors have major new projects coming out of the ground.
 

Goofyernmost

Well-Known Member
I don't know if it ever will. High end retail stores have existed forever and still do well. People still buy a Lexus when its the same car as a Toyota with a different symbol on the hood. People will pay more even when they know they could get a pretty similar product cheaper. The other factor is the public loves a deal or a bargain. Like you said if they raise prices 75% and then slash them 50% the psychological impact of the 50% discount drives sales. Just like a department store jewelry counter where they almost always have some large sale with a big % off. Disney is the king of slight of hand. Free dining, multi-day passes, DME, all things that look like a good deal to you but are also designed to keep you on property.
I hear what you are saying, and I agree. That's because, those that are enormously rich wouldn't dream of staying at a "lesser" hotel. It's a status thing, don't you know! What bothers me are the people that really cannot afford it pay those inflated prices but do because they have been sold on the idea that the only way to get the full dose of magic is to stay on site. I'm sure that staying at a place like GF or the Contemporary would be a nice experience, but, is it worth it? Certainly not to me. I'd rather have that extra money to still be in my possession when I get home and not in Bob's savings account. I will bet that I enjoy visiting WDW as much as anyone, because the experience, to me, is actually in the parks, not in a hotel room where the vast majority of my time is spent washing the days activities off my body and then with my eyes closed sound asleep. The last part I could do in my car.

Note: I think due to the last couple of posts that I have made on this thread that I can kiss any chance of Disney Comping me in the near future. That would be even if I promised to say nice things upon my return. You know what? They should try and see if they can change my mind. If they do then just think of the number of people I could influence that previously have been on the fence about onsite touring? :D
 

Goofyernmost

Well-Known Member
It's one of those "lets talk positive for the shareholders" but acknowledge we have some problems in private type of things, I believe. But the gist is the expected NFE to provide a Carsland type bump but the thing is NFE simple isn't Carsland on any scale. It's nice but not quite the crowd drawer they expected or wanted it to be. Think it was Rasulo who acknowledged that WDW attendance has been fairly minimal. Though I guess some people consider 1% growth good... I simply don't, especially not in comparison to its main competitor. And that is a definite reflection of the offerings Disney has put out in the past few years.
To be fair...which a lot of us will never be accused of...the place isn't finished yet. Those that have seen it, I believe, were going to make the trip anyway. The real proof will be when it is 100% complete, then see what it does. I saw it in January, but, I didn't go there to see it, I saw it because I was there anyway.
 

flynnibus

Premium Member
Disney resort stays are higher than they've ever been. You obviously can't compare February to August, but year over year the records are consistently falling. Occupancy PERCENTAGE might be slightly down due to the larger number of rooms (DAAR) but total guests at WDW resorts continues to rise.

So you're saying the NEWEST resort.. which is so popular they have to exclude it from many of the promotions.. is the one PULLING DOWN the occupancy rates? Ok champ...:rolleyes:

And that same newest resort is responsible for the trend over the last few years? Another winning argument
 

flynnibus

Premium Member
To be fair...which a lot of us will never be accused of...the place isn't finished yet. Those that have seen it, I believe, were going to make the trip anyway. The real proof will be when it is 100% complete, then see what it does. I saw it in January, but, I didn't go there to see it, I saw it because I was there anyway.

If the big 'pow' was yet to be revealed.. I'd share your sentiment. But 7dwarves is not going to be some radical game changer. It's going to be an entertaining addition that breathes some 'new' into a park that needed it desperately. It alone isn't going to bring people to florida.. and since virtually everyone who visits WDW already hits the MK.. it's not going to draw more people to the park (maybe more days.. but that's all it can do).

That's part of the catch-22 with the MK - everyone already goes there! So it takes even that much more of an impact to make some waves.
 

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