Spirited News & Observations II -- NGE/Baxter

[ParentsOf4]

All I know is just what I read in the papers, and that's an alibi for my ignorance.
Will Rogers

I'm a big fan of Will Rogers. Many of his witticisms from the 1920s and 1930s apply equally today:

"A fool and his money are soon elected."

"I don't make jokes. I just watch the government and report the facts."

"The only difference between death and taxes is that death doesn't get worse every time Congress meets."

"If you ever injected truth into politics you have no politics."

"Alexander Hamilton started the U.S. Treasury with nothing, and that was the closest our country has ever been to being even."

"The 1928 Republican Convention opened with a prayer. If the Lord can see His way clear to bless the Republican Party the way it's been carrying on, then the rest of us ought to get it without even asking."

"I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Democrat."

"The more you observe politics, the more you’ve got to admit that each party is worse than the other."

"Liberty doesn’t work as well in practice as it does in speeches."

"Worrying is like paying on a debt that may never come due."

And just about the best piece of advice anyone can give:

"Do the best you can, and don't take life too serious."

 

[ParentsOf4]

The impression i am getting is that WDW is having trouble getting rooms booked this Summer.

Now that WWOHP is a few years old, vacationers are no longer flocking to Orlando like they did a year or two ago. I never saw so many Universal shopping bags at WDW hotels as I did from 2010 to 2012.

So Iger, how's that "New" Fantasyland working out for ya?

 

[Goofyernmost]

Now that WWOHP is a few years old, vacationers are no longer flocking to Orlando like they did a year or two ago. I never saw so many Universal shopping bags at WDW hotels as I did from 2010 to 2012.

So Iger, how's that "New" Fantasyland working out for ya?

I'm not there to witness this, but, if what you are saying is true, then what is the deal with the constant communications from guest about how full the parks are. Something isn't adding up here. Either business is brisk or it's headed toward ghost town status. If I had to guess what might be happening, I would think that what they are measuring is resort hotel occupancy. Considering the almost criminal prices that they are charging for a room there, coupled with the reports of large crowds, I would think that if one were to check on offsite occupancy, there would be a huge increase. More people are coming but fewer are staying in a Disney Resort Hotel.

Couldn't happen to a nicer group of ripe off artists then the Resort folks at Disney. In my opinion, at Disney, you DO NOT get what you pay for.

 

[CDavid]

I'm not there to witness this, but, if what you are saying is true, then what is the deal with the constant communications from guest about how full the parks are. Something isn't adding up here. Either business is brisk or it's headed toward ghost town status. If I had to guess what might be happening, I would think that what they are measuring is resort hotel occupancy. Considering the almost criminal prices that they are charging for a room there, coupled with the reports of large crowds, I would think that if one were to check on offsite occupancy, there would be a huge increase. More people are coming but fewer are staying in a Disney Resort Hotel.

Couldn't happen to a nicer group of ripe off artists then the Resort folks at Disney. In my opinion, at Disney, you DO NOT get what you pay for.

Well, you do literally get what you pay for, because you are essentially paying for the Disney name - and that's what you get. Theme, location and transportation are arguably better on-property, although a few off-property locations are actually closer (particularly to AK) than Disney's own resorts. I would love to know if there has been a change in off-property occupancy, especially during the busy summer travel season when Disney should be largely occupied. It used to be said that many guests of Disney's value resorts were people who used to stay in moderate or deluxe before value came along. I have to wonder now if many Fairfield or Hampton Inn guests are folks who used to stay at Pop Century.

Even if reports of busy parks aren't always 100% reliable, I have to wonder if the parks may be doing better than the resorts, which would be interesting given that the supposed major competition for WDW this summer are expansions in Sea World and Universal's parks.

 

[bubbles1812]

Now that WWOHP is a few years old, vacationers are no longer flocking to Orlando like they did a year or two ago. I never saw so many Universal shopping bags at WDW hotels as I did from 2010 to 2012.

So Iger, how's that "New" Fantasyland working out for ya?

Hehe. So I've mentioned before I was at WDW in February and what you said about the Universal shopping bags is so true! Every time I walked thru the hotel lobby, without fail, there would be guests with those WWOHP bags. My mom and I spent more on souvenir type stuff at Universal than our past several Disney trips combined. That has got to wrankle some Disney staff when they see it.

 

[Tim_4]

I'm not there to witness this, but, if what you are saying is true, then what is the deal with the constant communications from guest about how full the parks are. Something isn't adding up here. Either business is brisk or it's headed toward ghost town status. If I had to guess what might be happening, I would think that what they are measuring is resort hotel occupancy. Considering the almost criminal prices that they are charging for a room there, coupled with the reports of large crowds, I would think that if one were to check on offsite occupancy, there would be a huge increase. More people are coming but fewer are staying in a Disney Resort Hotel.

Couldn't happen to a nicer group of ripe off artists then the Resort folks at Disney. In my opinion, at Disney, you DO NOT get what you pay for.

Disney resort stays are higher than they've ever been. You obviously can't compare February to August, but year over year the records are consistently falling. Occupancy PERCENTAGE might be slightly down due to the larger number of rooms (DAAR) but total guests at WDW resorts continues to rise.

 

[bubbles1812]

Disney resort stays are higher than they've ever been. You obviously can't compare February to August, but year over year the records are consistently falling. Occupancy PERCENTAGE might be slightly down due to the larger number of rooms (DAAR) but total guests at WDW resorts continues to rise.

Can you provide proof of this? Just curious. Not entirely sold on your facts but not sold on what others claim either. Though if percentage is down, and consistently is falling, that probably should be a sign to them that they should temper building more hotel rooms... And you know, invest in the parks instead. Also interesting to think that even if what you say is true about the absolute number of guests in the hotels is true, attendance of the past four years at WDW has been virtually flat.

 

[ParentsOf4]

I'm not there to witness this, but, if what you are saying is true, then what is the deal with the constant communications from guest about how full the parks are. Something isn't adding up here. Either business is brisk or it's headed toward ghost town status. If I had to guess what might be happening, I would think that what they are measuring is resort hotel occupancy. Considering the almost criminal prices that they are charging for a room there, coupled with the reports of large crowds, I would think that if one were to check on offsite occupancy, there would be a huge increase. More people are coming but fewer are staying in a Disney Resort Hotel.

You took me too seriously. I was being facetious. Hence the wink.

Helped by a weak U.S. dollar and aggressive marketing, international guests are approaching one-quarter of all WDW visitors. It's these crowds that we are seeing at WDW. International guests are helping fill the gap caused by a declining domestic base.

IMHO, it's Universal that's benefiting right now from WDW's marketing, not the other way around as happened in 2010 and 2011 with WWOHP.

Like you, I suspect offsite occupancy is up.

WDW resort prices have reached such painful levels that many Americans are being priced out of the market. Disney needs to offer discounts, even during peak summer season, just so folks can afford to stay at WDW resorts. WDW's willingness to offer "room-only" summer discounts suggests there is a negative occupancy trend going on at WDW resorts right now.

I also wonder if DVC is having some impact. Never have so many DVC rooms been available. As folks become more comfortable renting DVC points over the Internet, is this having a modest effect on WDW's direct room rentals?

WDW would not offer summer "room only" discounts if all was well. Something's going on.

P.S. One more thought. Wyndham Bonnet Creek opened a few years ago and essentially is located on WDW property. It has over 2000 suites and costs considerably less than WDW. I got to believe some are deciding to stay in a spacious 2-bedroom suite for the price of a single room at a WDW Moderate or even Value Resort. Parking there is always hell no matter when we visit so I suspect they are doing a robust business.

 

[George]

I hope something happens that causes WDW hotel prices to trend towards normality. Even for a resort, they currently border on insanity.

 

[Goofyernmost]

You took me too seriously. I was being facetious. Hence the wink.

Helped by a weak U.S. dollar and aggressive marketing, international guests are approaching one-quarter of all WDW visitors. It's these crowds that we are seeing at WDW. International guests are helping fill the gap caused by a declining domestic base.

IMHO, it's Universal that's benefiting right now from WDW's marketing, not the other way around as happened in 2010 and 2011 with WWOHP.

Like you, I suspect offsite occupancy is up.

WDW resort prices have reached such painful levels that many Americans are being priced out of the market. They need to offer discounts, even during peak summer season, just so folks can afford to stay at WDW resorts. WDW's willingness to offer "room-only" summer discounts suggests there is a negative occupancy trend going on at WDW resorts right now.

I also wonder if DVC is having some impact. Never have so many DVC rooms been available. As folks become more comfortable renting DVC points over the Internet, is this having a modest effect on WDW's direct room rentals?

WDW would not offer summer "room only" discounts if all was well. Something's going on.

P.S. One more thought. Wyndham Bonnet Creek opened a few years ago and essentially is located on WDW property. It has over 2000 suites and costs considerably less than WDW. I got to believe some are deciding to stay in a spacious 2-bedroom suite for the price of a single room at a WDW Moderate or even Value Resort. Parking there is always hell no matter when we visit so I suspect they are doing a robust business.

I know I quoted you but it was just for a starting point. The thought was my own. Over the months of reading so many posts saying that the parks are busier then they have ever seen them, even in off peak times, I just was thinking. What is going on.

My experience with staying on site over the last 30 years has been limited to exactly once and that was at Pop Century about 5 years ago. I hated every minute of it. The room was small to the point of ridiculous and even with a "special" package it was half the price to stay at a better hotel just offsite. Even if I were worth millions, I would have trouble justifying the costs of a luxury room because when all is said and done it is just four walls and a bed (or two). Ok, maybe better shampoo, I don't know and I never will because I will not stay there. I wouldn't be able to sleep nights knowing how little I got for how much I paid. I know that is just my opinion and others feel completely different, but, so be it...I don't have a problem with people staying at any Disney Resort. I do have a problem with me staying there.

 

[Goofyernmost]

Well, you do literally get what you pay for, because you are essentially paying for the Disney name - and that's what you get. Theme, location and transportation are arguably better on-property, although a few off-property locations are actually closer (particularly to AK) than Disney's own resorts. I would love to know if there has been a change in off-property occupancy, especially during the busy summer travel season when Disney should be largely occupied. It used to be said that many guests of Disney's value resorts were people who used to stay in moderate or deluxe before value came along. I have to wonder now if many Fairfield or Hampton Inn guests are folks who used to stay at Pop Century.

Even if reports of busy parks aren't always 100% reliable, I have to wonder if the parks may be doing better than the resorts, which would be interesting given that the supposed major competition for WDW this summer are expansions in Sea World and Universal's parks.

I have no desire to pay for the Disney name. I fail to understand why the "name" would be worth that much. I will, however, go to the parks and enjoy them.

 

[Tim_4]

Can you provide proof of this? Just curious. Not entirely sold on your facts but not sold on what others claim either. Though if percentage is down, and consistently is falling, that probably should be a sign to them that they should temper building more hotel rooms... And you know, invest in the parks instead. Also interesting to think that even if what you say is true about the absolute number of guests in the hotels is true, attendance of the past four years at WDW has been virtually flat.

I cannot provide proof.

Occupancy percentage is down but rising. There's a catch up period whenever new rooms are built. Attendance is climbing too. I'm not the biggest New Fantasyland supporter but they're not lying when they say it's having an impact.

 

[ParentsOf4]

Occupancy percentage is down but rising. There's a catch up period whenever new rooms are built. Attendance is climbing too. I'm not the biggest New Fantasyland supporter but they're not lying when they say it's having an impact.

I suspect international guests are having a bigger impact on attendance than New Fantasyland.

"Room-only" discounts for the summer also should help.

And WDW executives "lie" all the time. (I don't consider it lying.) When communicating externally, executives are supposed to be their company's greatest advocates. They are supposed to say "things are great" and they are "really excited about X" even when results indicate otherwise.

If you want to end your career as a corporate executive, tell the "truth" in a public forum.

P.S. Sorry one more thought. Iger privately has stated that NFL has not lived up to expectations, that opening NFL piecemeal was a mistake. SDMT is the lynchpin of the Fantasyland expansion and opening the rest without it has deflated its impact.

 

[GoofGoof]

I'm not there to witness this, but, if what you are saying is true, then what is the deal with the constant communications from guest about how full the parks are. Something isn't adding up here. Either business is brisk or it's headed toward ghost town status. If I had to guess what might be happening, I would think that what they are measuring is resort hotel occupancy. Considering the almost criminal prices that they are charging for a room there, coupled with the reports of large crowds, I would think that if one were to check on offsite occupancy, there would be a huge increase. More people are coming but fewer are staying in a Disney Resort Hotel.

Couldn't happen to a nicer group of ripe off artists then the Resort folks at Disney. In my opinion, at Disney, you DO NOT get what you pay for.

And crowds will remain high...due to the discounts. Take away the discounts, crowds will drop. I think the whole point is that the only way WDW continues to maintain its levels is to continue to offer discounts and will probably need to extend them in the future instead of pulling back like they planned to do.

Another thing to consider is where the crowds are. Lots of maximum attendance during busy times at MK, but what about the other 3? Despite what many want to think about FLE it has drawn crowds to MK. Will it draw return guests, yet to be seen, but it won't be Potter like.

Now that WWOHP is a few years old, vacationers are no longer flocking to Orlando like they did a year or two ago. I never saw so many Universal shopping bags at WDW hotels as I did from 2010 to 2012.

One of the most true and also the most frightening statements made in this discussion. If TDO is thinking this same way that probably explains the lack of movement on their part. They feel like they can sit back and wait for the boom in Orlando tourism from Potter 2.0 that will directly boost their own numbers. It's sad to see, but the shoe is officially on the other foot. Universal and Sea World were built essentially as parasites looking to feast on the scraps left behind by the mighty WDW. Now WDW is living off of the gains in total tourism from all the activity down the street.

 

[michmousefan]

The largest issue I see with marketing is reaching the demographic that KNOWS who The Lone Ranger is. Everything thus far screams marketing Depp to the young crowd. Hitting these Baby Boomers with nostalgia is key to the film's success IMO.

Maybe it's just my age showing, but its kinda weird that there hasn't been even a hint of the William Tell Overture in the trailers. It's like they are either saving it for the movie or are going out of their way to ignore it.

 

[ScoutN]

I want to tap onto the notion of "Disney will build in South America by 2020." That idea is flat out laughable. There is no way Disney would even have a drunken dream about building in the market that is keeping WDW afloat. It would kill the Florida business and cause it hurt more than it is now.

 

[Goofyernmost]

And crowds will remain high...due to the discounts. Take away the discounts, crowds will drop. I think the whole point is that the only way WDW continues to maintain its levels is to continue to offer discounts and will probably need to extend them in the future instead of pulling back like they planned to do.

That could very well be true, but it is just slight of hand. The discounted rates are still higher then what can be found just a few feet off the property. They just charge so much to begin with that they can slash prices by large percentages and still be more expensive then the competition. How long will it take to get that to sink in to everyones head. Who knows? But it will eventually.

It's like furniture. They can "sacrifice" and slash prices by 50% because they already raised them by 75%. Hey, maybe WDW can have a going out of business sale and miraculously be able to recover and stay open until the next going out of business sale.

 

[bubbles1812]

I cannot provide proof.

Occupancy percentage is down but rising. There's a catch up period whenever new rooms are built. Attendance is climbing too. I'm not the biggest New Fantasyland supporter but they're not lying when they say it's having an impact.

And yet they have acknowledged that NFE is not providing the bump in attendance that they expected (which ironically pretty much anyone on here but the most naive could have told them was going to happen).

And attendance is "rising".. I don't know if I consider a 1% growth over the past four years as rising. That's pretty darn flat if you ask me, and another thing that has been both acknowledged as disappointing and also very obviously tried to be downplayed by executives

 

[71jason]

I hope something happens that causes WDW hotel prices to trend towards normality. Even for a resort, they currently border on insanity.

It's the Kohls/old JC Penney model. No one with half a brain actually pays full retail (either get a discount or some benefit like "free" dining), but the people who do pay think they're getting a bargain. It depends largely on a less-discerning customer base--a Spirited Observer might say "rubes"--who don't know what prices and amenities are standard for higher-end hotels.

 

[GoofGoof]

And yet they have acknowledged that NFE is not providing the bump in attendance that they expected (which ironically pretty much anyone on here but the most naive could have told them was going to happen).

Who is this "they" that acknowledged this? Do you have some proof?