Spirited News & Observations II -- NGE/Baxter

[PhotoDave219]

And attendance is "rising".. I don't know if I consider a 1% growth over the past four years as rising. That's pretty darn flat if you ask me, and another thing that has been both acknowledged as disappointing and also very obviously tried to be downplayed by executives

Average attendance is 47k/day at MK. Thats a lot of people and is uncomfortable for me.

I wonder if its reaching a saturation point?

 

[Goofyernmost]

If the big 'pow' was yet to be revealed.. I'd share your sediment. But 7dwarves is not going to be some radical game changer. It's going to be an entertaining addition that breathes some 'new' into a park that needed it desperately. It alone isn't going to bring people to florida.. and since virtually everyone who visits WDW already hits the MK.. it's not going to draw more people to the park (maybe more days.. but that's all it can do).

That's part of the catch-22 with the MK - everyone already goes there! So it takes even that much more of an impact to make some waves.

Didn't say it was a deal maker, but it does complete the project with the biggest draw for the area. So why would people make a special trip to not see a complete area. We are debating whether or not it will draw people even after it is complete. Maybe not, but it has a better chance then when it is not complete.

Edit: Oh, and BTW...please don't share my sediment with anyone else. You don't know where it's been!

 

[jt04]

Average attendance is 47k/day at MK. Thats a lot of people and is uncomfortable for me.

I wonder if its reaching a saturation point?

IMO the FLE is just a starting point in addressing the issue. Interactive queues, RFID, interactive challenges are all part of long range plans to address capacity.

 

[GoofGoof]

I don't know if poor showing is the exact right word for it but my impression has at least been that NFE is not performing to the level they expected... Though I guess when you expect Carsland level numbers for not even a full land where the biggest thing is a restaurant you set yourself up for disappointment. I seriously don't get it. For months to years, people have been saying that on here and yet the people who run the company couldn't figure it out. And the slow role out was an extremely poor choice. 2015... Agree on that one. I don't see anything built before 2017/2018z

FLE is not and will never an attendance draw like Potter or even Carsland. Besides this year when it's brand new I don't see it driving attendance. Maybe some really big fans of Beauty and the Beast and Little Mermaid might think of it that way, but I don't think the masses will be planning a return trip to WDW to revisit just for that.

I do believe that MK has seen a boost from FLE. Going way back to my original point I don't think that has definitely translated into increased WDW attendance or room occupancy. We have heard reports from the first 6 months of larger than usual crowds at MK and the park is still closing due to capacity at peak times (Christmas, Spring Break). The question is how much of the gains at MK are canabalization of the other 3 parks? If you were going to Orlando in the last six months and only visiting a Disney park for a day or 2 a large number of people probably picked MK due to FLE.

 

[jt04]

FLE is not and will never an attendance draw like Potter or even Carsland. Besides this year when it's brand new I don't see it driving attendance. Maybe some really big fans of Beauty and the Beast and Little Mermaid might think of it that way, but I don't think the masses will be planning a return trip to WDW to revisit just for that.

I do believe that MK has seen a boost from FLE. Going way back to my original point I don't think that has definitely translated into increased WDW attendance or room occupancy. We have heard reports from the first 6 months of larger than usual crowds at MK and the park is still closing due to capacity at peak times (Christmas, Spring Break). The question is how much of the gains at MK are canabalization of the other 3 parks? If you were going to Orlando in the last six months and only visiting a Disney park for a day or 2 a large number of people probably picked MK due to FLE.

Consider that the FLE may be just a starting point for a much bigger project/reimagining of the MK. With any big project you have to start somewhere. And IMO "New Fantasyland" is very much a work in progress. What year is the 50th anniversary?

 

[GoofGoof]

Al Lutz wrote the following:

Yep, that was the article I was talking about. Maybe Al is right, he probably knows a lot more than me, but I can't believe that anyone at TWDC saw FLE as a huge driver of attendance like Potter or Carsland. I thought the main driver of the project was to increase capacity at MK which routinely sells out and closes due to max capacity. I know they are still short the biggest new ride from the expansion, but it's kinda funny that MK was still closing during those peak times for maximum capacity. Guess that didn't quite work as planned. Poor guest satisfaction surveys had to be expected. The biggest new draw isn't open and the area is still a bit of a mess due to the giant construction project in the middle of it.

I would love it if the statement about executives having a fire lit is true. I don't think 2015 is likely for Carsland, but if they pushed it maybe they could get it done.

 

[PhotoDave219]

IMO the FLE is just a starting point in addressing the issue. Interactive queues, RFID, interactive challenges are all part of long range plans to address capacity.

Yea, Ive heard talk of them using mobile devices to try to communicate to guests and lead them away from super-crowded areas.

Exactly how the hell they can accomplish that is beyond me.

 

[GoofGoof]

Consider that the FLE may be just a starting point for a much bigger project/reimagining of the MK. With any big project you have to start somewhere. And IMO "New Fantasyland" is very much a work in progress. What year is the 50th anniversary?

Maybe so, but of FLE tells them anything it should be that the other 3 parks (AK and DHS particularly) need more attention first. If FLE, which most consider a modest sized project, has pushed MK attendance to the breaking point most of fiscal Q1 building more isn't going to work. Remember they reported Q1 attendance at WDW as up a hair, but all signs point to MK having increased attendance so that has to mean the other 3 are down. FLE should be a signal to build elsewhere first.

 

[GiveMeTheMusic]

IMO the FLE is just a starting point in addressing the issue. Interactive queues, RFID, interactive challenges are all part of long range plans to address capacity.

None of these things address capacity. Interactive queues are being implemented to entertain people who will be spending a lot more time in that queue than they would have in previous years, thanks to the merciless onslaught of FP+ (I can't wait for my 30 minute queue experience at The Seas with Nemo & Friends!). People in queues longer than before = more people on the streets of the park as less movement is occuring. More Fastpass holders means more people NOT waiting in queues.

The interactive quests can only serve a handful of guests at a time. It's a feeble attempt at best.

None of these things address capacity. Big, people-eating attractions address capacity. They managed to build one (Mermaid) and ruined it with Fastpass, taking a ride that should never exceed a 20 minute wait even on the busiest days and running it up to 30 - 90 minutes on average or crowded days.

MK needs at least four new people eaters to even begin to address the lost capacity of the last 20 years, plus the increased crowds. Mine Train is not going to be a people eater, and the replacement of a dark ride with a meet-n-greet doesn't help things.

It's symptomatic of a flawed mindset - we've got the #1 park in the world, why would need to spend money on it? The answer is because you can ALWAYS go up. Is MK packed every day? No? Then they can do more. A collection of awesome new attractions/lands that were irresistible to the public at large would drive numbers up further while addressing capacity problems. Demand is clearly there, and yet...Tangled toilets.

 

[PhotoDave219]

It's symptomatic of a flawed mindset - we've got the #1 park in the world, why would need to spend money on it? The answer is because you can ALWAYS go up. Is MK packed every day? No? Then they can do more. A collection of awesome new attractions/lands that were irresistible to the public at large would drive numbers up further while addressing capacity problems. Demand is clearly there, and yet...Tangled toilets.

Average is 47k/day (2011). How much more can you go up? How much will guests put up with before they go elsewhere?

Yes, we need more rides with large OHRC's.

 

[flynnibus]

Didn't say it was a deal maker, but it does complete the project with the biggest draw for the area. So why would people make a special trip to not see a complete area.

I think you over estimate the significance the average tourist puts into deciding if Disney is in their future this year. They see the ads.. they hear the buzz.. they see the stories.. the vast majority of it's in place and that's likely enough for the vast majority.

 

[luv]

Average is 47k/day (2011). How much more can you go up? How much will guests put up with before they go elsewhere?

Yes, we need more rides with large OHRC's.

OHRC? And don't "let me google that for you" me. I already tried.

Te parks are starting to get too crowded for me now. Whatever attendance is right now, it's close to the point where I don't want to be there.

 

[Goofyernmost]

I think you over estimate the significance the average tourist puts into deciding if Disney is in their future this year. They see the ads.. they hear the buzz.. they see the stories.. the vast majority of it's in place and that's likely enough for the vast majority.

If they see all those ads and listen to the buzz then they know it isn't finished yet. It's like GM promoting a new car and trying to get people to come look at it. The only problem is the section from the windshield to the front bumper isn't attached yet. I may think that the area from the windshield to the rear bumper would be great to see, but I'm not going to attempt it until the front is attached. I know that they might consider, due to other things that they will go now and look at the back section, but, it will not be just because of that.

I don't know if the completion of the Dwarf Ride will create that kind of focus, but it sure stands a better chance then it would now without it.

 

[GoofGoof]

I hear what you are saying, and I agree. That's because, those that are enormously rich wouldn't dream of staying at a "lesser" hotel. It's a status thing, don't you know! What bothers me are the people that really cannot afford it pay those inflated prices but do because they have been sold on the idea that the only way to get the full dose of magic is to stay on site. I'm sure that staying at a place like GF or the Contemporary would be a nice experience, but, is it worth it? Certainly not to me. I'd rather have that extra money to still be in my possession when I get home and not in Bob's savings account. I will bet that I enjoy visiting WDW as much as anyone, because the experience, to me, is actually in the parks, not in a hotel room where the vast majority of my time is spent washing the days activities off my body and then with my eyes closed sound asleep. The last part I could do in my car.

Note: I think due to the last couple of posts that I have made on this thread that I can kiss any chance of Disney Comping me in the near future. That would be even if I promised to say nice things upon my return. You know what? They should try and see if they can change my mind. If they do then just think of the number of people I could influence that previously have been on the fence about onsite touring?

I agree 100% on the point about people spending more than they can afford. Sad reality of society today.

I do hear what you are saying, but staying off property is not identical to staying on property. Its not really the same as buying a TV at Walmart vs buying the same TV at your local high end TV and stereo store (do those still exist anymore?). There are differences. Maybe ones that aren't important to you, but they may be for some people. If you are flying in DME is a big draw. A lot of people don't want to have to rent a car and drive while on vacation. They consider that to be a big negative to staying off property. Same goes for meals. Some people want to eat most or all meals on property and want the convenience of staying a monorail, bus or boat trip away from where they are eating and playing all day.

 

[Goofyernmost]

I agree 100% on the point about people spending more than they can afford. Sad reality of society today.

I do hear what you are saying, but staying off property is not identical to staying on property. Its not really the same as buying a TV at Walmart vs buying the same TV at your local high end TV and stereo store (do those still exist anymore?). There are differences. Maybe ones that aren't important to you, but they may be for some people. If you are flying in DME is a big draw. A lot of people don't want to have to rent a car and drive while on vacation. They consider that to be a big negative to staying off property. Same goes for meals. Some people want to eat most or all meals on property and want the convenience of staying a monorail, bus or boat trip away from where they are eating and playing all day.

And if they are willing to pay the premium for that...who am I to stop them. I have better things to do with my money then throw it away on a fantasy. Remember my positions are mine alone. I may sound like I'm casting judgment on those that do it the other way, but I'm not. I don't understand it, but, I realize that it exists. It just remains a mystery to me.

 

[jt04]

None of these things address capacity. Interactive queues are being implemented to entertain people who will be spending a lot more time in that queue than they would have in previous years, thanks to the merciless onslaught of FP+ (I can't wait for my 30 minute queue experience at The Seas with Nemo & Friends!). People in queues longer than before = more people on the streets of the park as less movement is occuring. More Fastpass holders means more people NOT waiting in queues.

The interactive quests can only serve a handful of guests at a time. It's a feeble attempt at best.

None of these things address capacity. Big, people-eating attractions address capacity. They managed to build one (Mermaid) and ruined it with Fastpass, taking a ride that should never exceed a 20 minute wait even on the busiest days and running it up to 30 - 90 minutes on average or crowded days.

MK needs at least four new people eaters to even begin to address the lost capacity of the last 20 years, plus the increased crowds. Mine Train is not going to be a people eater, and the replacement of a dark ride with a meet-n-greet doesn't help things.

It's symptomatic of a flawed mindset - we've got the #1 park in the world, why would need to spend money on it? The answer is because you can ALWAYS go up. Is MK packed every day? No? Then they can do more. A collection of awesome new attractions/lands that were irresistible to the public at large would drive numbers up further while addressing capacity problems. Demand is clearly there, and yet...Tangled toilets.

I think we have to wait for D23 to draw any conclusions on their long term strategies. At this point it is impossible to discern specifics. Although the new parade will be a crowd-eater. You forgot to mention the new parade.

You have to have the infrastructure in place BEFORE the crowds get there.

 

[flynnibus]

If they see all those ads and listen to the buzz then they know it isn't finished yet

Step outside the bubble man... the mass market isn't following threads like this. The ads and buzz they see are not focusing on 7dwarves or princess hall not being complete.. they are talking about everything that IS done. In my personal circles of friends and associates I know of approximately 12 families who have been to WDW since the start of the year - and not one of them put NFE's incomplete status as a factor in NOT going. To them, 'its something new to check out' and they go in with an open mind and enjoyed what they got. Heck, one (who has a toddler) was raving how Dumbo's new queue saying 'this is how every ride should be...'.

Sometimes people need to step back and realize how they perceieve things may not be as commonly shared as they might think. We spend hours a week, or even a day, thinking, reviewing, contemplating Disney's actions and product. We are the 1%. The rest are looking at what to do, what not to do, and how to get the most from their trip. They aren't over analyzing the minutia. They are taking a vacation.

It's like GM promoting a new car and trying to get people to come look at it. The only problem is the section from the windshield to the front bumper isn't attached yet

Worst analogy of the year.

 

[PhotoDave219]

OHRC? And don't "let me google that for you" me. I already tried.

Te parks are starting to get too crowded for me now. Whatever attendance is right now, it's close to the point where I don't want to be there.

Optimal (?) Operational Hourly Ride Capacity. The number of people that can go on an attraction within an hour. Haunted Mansion and iasw are the tops in the MK with that.

 

[the.dreamfinder]

I think the dress code at RDL (Rio Disneyland) will last for 3.4 days before they throw in the towel. Or, perhaps, have towels available for covering up.

Disney Princess bikini contest?

 

[GoofGoof]

And if they are willing to pay the premium for that...who am I to stop them. I have better things to do with my money then throw it away on a fantasy. Remember my positions are mine alone. I may sound like I'm casting judgment on those that do it the other way, but I'm not. I don't understand it, but, I realize that it exists. It just remains a mystery to me.

As they say, that's why they make chocolate and vanilla.

I probably have a warped opinion on this subject as vacations are the one place I spend more frivolously on. I drive a modest 10 year old sedan, don't spend a lot on fancy clothes or jewelry, with the kids now we rarely eat out anywhere fancy and I'm not too much of a techie person who has to have every new gadget. When it comes to vacations I almost always go for the upgrade. I pay extra for an ocean view room at the beach, I'll buy $9 drinks at the pool bar when I know I could buy a six pack for less and drink it in my room and I prefer to stay on property at WDW. I know I could get a better deal off property and I have tried it several times but it wasn't my cup of tea. It's not really about magic for me, just convenience. I'm spending a whole lot on my vacation already so spending a little more is worth it to me for the added convenience. Of course that's just my opinion.