NextGen / FP+ / Magic Band. The official truth starts to appear

[dinodak]

I understand them fully - the difference is I've not made the conclusions on the what will happen in the future when we don't even know the parameters in play. You've ASSUMED you know the future.. I just chose to wait and see how they do it before I cry bloody murder.

Yes, but please remember his experience with SDLC. Case closed

 

[WDW1974]

I understand them fully - the difference is I've not made the conclusions on the what will happen in the future when we don't even know the parameters in play. You've ASSUMED you know the future.. I just chose to wait and see how they do it before I cry bloody murder.

UGH!!! Flynn, my mortal foe ... it sure doesn't seem like you're sitting back and waiting. Nah, it sounds like you're a cheerleader on the sidelines with your MM+ pom-poms bouncing in the air. You are a techie, no? Technology is a big part of your life (work and home), no? There's nothing wrong with pointing out potential positives, which I believe you've done probably 7,890 times already, but you aren't blind to the potential negatives, which are great, and the issues over is this the best use of $1.5 billion and climbing.

And just like it's fine for a techie geek who has given up the privacy fight for an iPhone that tracks your every move to hail what they believe are the positives of this program, it also isn't too soon for those with privacy concerns, shareholder concerns, trip planning concerns, CMs concerns or any other potential concerns to raise said concerns.

And Disney is an $90 billion media goliath, I don't think it needs defending everytime someone criticizes it unless they work for the company. Corps aren't people. They don't have feelings. Mickey isn't crying everytime I about this ridiculous waste of $$$ that will cost us all more.

 

[Monty]

Make up your mind... Is Mickey crying every time you [which would mean Mickey constantly cries] or do corporations not have feelings?

 

[IlikeDW]

How about looking at this mathematically?

Soarin's capacity is around 1300 guests per hour with a capacity of perhaps 15,600 guests per typical 12-hour day at Epcot. Assuming about 60% of Soarin's capacity is allocated to FP+, there should be about 9,360 Soarin' FP+ per day. With Epcot's average attendance around 30,000, people have less than a one-in-three chance at a Soarin' FP+, even less during popular periods such as Spring Break, Summer, and holidays. Furthermore, that's throughout the day. If Disney offers a Soarin' FP+, it could end up being for 9:00 AM or 8:30 PM. The chances of people getting Soarin' FP+ at the times they actually want are are slim indeed.

If Disney holds back some Soarin' FP+ for "day of" guests, then even fewer people will be able to book a Soarin' FP+ prior to arrival.

Yes, it will be difficult to get FP+ for WDW's most popular attractions.

and how is that different from today? Fast passes routinely gone by noon for the most popular attractions. btw, I was not defending FP+, just pointing out that its is not wise to judge final product by a test event. I am not convinced that FP+ is a good idea but I am equally unconvinced that it is destined to fail.

 

[flynnibus]

UGH!!! Flynn, my mortal foe ... it sure doesn't seem like you're sitting back and waiting. Nah, it sounds like you're a cheerleader on the sidelines with your MM+ pom-poms bouncing in the air. You are a techie, no? Technology is a big part of your life (work and home), no? There's nothing wrong with pointing out potential positives, which I believe you've done probably 7,890 times already, but you aren't blind to the potential negatives, which are great, and the issues over is this the best use of $1.5 billion and climbing.

You've misinterpreted my posts. I know the negatives, I don't deny them. What I correct is when people talk about potentials as absolutes. I've talked about potential benefits - but I don't say they are happening.. because honestly we don't know. People are latching onto something that COULD happen and running around like chicken little as if that potential is the actual choice Disney will make. Nothing is worse then misinformation being spread as fact.. and it building steam on its own to be repeated and spread endlessly.

I don't know if I'll like the program yet as a customer.. they haven't released enough information to make an informed decision. Most of the conclusions thrown around in these threads honestly are just flat out stupid. I don't think the people are that stupid.. but they aren't showing the patience to find out the facts and instead are getting hyper on anything they can get and insist on taking things to a finale even if the information doesn't take it that far. Extrapolation extraordinaire.

it also isn't too soon for those with privacy concerns, shareholder concerns, trip planning concerns, CMs concerns or any other potential concerns to raise said concerns.

You should pay more attention to what I actually respond to. This isn't some blind faith.. I'm actually fighting for the 'middle' - not Disney nor the torch bearers. I advocate for reason and balance.

Privacy concerns - when you bring a legit one.. I'll listen. I really haven't heard one yet that isn't worse then what you are already exposing. Any new risks are on the technology side IMO - not that we are opening ourselves up by releasing new info.
Shareholder concerns... honestly that hasn't really be broached here. (I don't consider 'waa.. build my next ride..' discussions worth of the label 'shareholder concerns')
Trip Planning - again, this is an area we can't draw any conclusions on without knowing what the final system looks like. And we don't. The only legit discussion so far is over # of FPs and about park hopping. All the 'I gotta book 6m out' junk is just crap at this point. We don't know.
CM Concerns - I can't speak to that really. I've never worked in a theme park, nor do I care to. So you haven't seen me jump into those conversations. I wouldn't be worried about a CM ramp up to handle the program... I'd be much more worried about if you can't ramp DOWN after a period of time. This is an area we can only speculate in...

 

[WDW1974]

You've misinterpreted my posts. I know the negatives, I don't deny them. What I correct is when people talk about potentials as absolutes. I've talked about potential benefits - but I don't say they are happening.. because honestly we don't know.

This will be shorter than it was supposed to be. After spending 10 minutes typing, this wonderful piece of tech decided to shut down with no warning and my second efforts are never as good as my first.

No, we don't know. But we are able to extrapolate based on what we do and that is all I attempt to do. I absolutely know that this potentially is the biggest boondoggle in WDW history and at an incredible cost.

You should pay more attention to what I actually respond to. This isn't some blind faith.. I'm actually fighting for the 'middle' - not Disney nor the torch bearers. I advocate for reason and balance.

Um ... sure. If you believe that and it makes you sleep better, then go with it. ... I ALWAYS advocate for reason because that's how I deal with the world. But balance? Not so much. If something convinces me that at its core it's a bad idea, then I am not going to toss around a bunch of qualifers.

Privacy concerns - when you bring a legit one.. I'll listen. I really haven't heard one yet that isn't worse then what you are already exposing. Any new risks are on the technology side IMO - not that we are opening ourselves up by releasing new info.

Your general response is one where since we have been forced to give up so much privacy already, why not let Disney do its thing? I would argue that if 6,789 people break a law that it still isn't right for the 6,800th person who does the exact same thing. And, no, I am not suggesting Disney is breaking any laws (that's for the government to decide) before someone comes whining back over my example.

The risks on the tech side are quite large. There really is no turning back, so what if this thing winds up costing $2 billion? $4 billion? $5 b? At what point does it reach absurdity? If you don't think, and you obviously don't, that they've spent (or wasted) an obscene sum of money thus far.

Shareholder concerns... honestly that hasn't really be broached here. (I don't consider 'waa.. build my next ride..' discussions worth of the label 'shareholder concerns')

See my last sentence above. Irresponsibly spending company funds IS a concern of every shareholder.

Trip Planning - again, this is an area we can't draw any conclusions on without knowing what the final system looks like. And we don't. The only legit discussion so far is over # of FPs and about park hopping. All the 'I gotta book 6m out' junk is just crap at this point. We don't know.

True, but again we can extrapolate that locals, APers, last-minute traverlers, off-site guests are not going to be getting the same MM+ experience that someone booking 11 nights at the Poly on conciege is going to get or even what some family staying at PO for a week and on the DDP at rack rate are going to get. Common sense says as much. ... There was a time when Disney left tables open and FSRs for walk-ups and day-of guests. But quietly they started staffing and booking based on the DDP and their own resort inventory.

So, if you're an APer living in Clermont who decides to drive over at noon on ANY day you are not going to ever get a FP for TSMM or Soarin or Tron Track. It just won't happen. They need to book those slots. You can't have openings at 4 p.m. for anything.

CM Concerns - I can't speak to that really. I've never worked in a theme park, nor do I care to. So you haven't seen me jump into those conversations. I wouldn't be worried about a CM ramp up to handle the program... I'd be much more worried about if you can't ramp DOWN after a period of time. This is an area we can only speculate in...

I had a longer response again, but suffice to say I have friends who work the front lines and I do care about them. I care about the grief they're going to take from guests and management over a system that is very flawed right now technically. And I worry if they ever fix it all about the workers who WILL lose jobs because this is designed to eliminate labor as well. Not speculation. Fact.

 

[ParentsOf4]

and how is that different from today? Fast passes routinely gone by noon for the most popular attractions. btw, I was not defending FP+, just pointing out that its is not wise to judge final product by a test event. I am not convinced that FP+ is a good idea but I am equally unconvinced that it is destined to fail.

Exactly, FP+ doesn't increase ride capacity and isn't any different than today. Yet consider Iger's words:

And that will obviously have an impact on guest experience by not only improving the number of attractions they can experience while they are there, but guaranteeing that they'll be able to see the ones or experience the ones that they want.

How does FP+ do that? It doesn't. We still have the same capacity issues we have with today's FP. FP+ solves nothing.

Yet Iger & co. are advertising this $1.5B boondoggle to the public as an amazing new experience, cynically acting as if slapping a "new & improved" label on something actually makes it new and improved. Iger is hoping his "guests" are too dimwitted to recognize false advertising and will throw more money his way.

FP+ won't fail exactly because it's essentially the same system that's been in use for 13 years, the main difference being is that we'll now have to scramble 60 days before we arrive to get FP+ rather than being present at the rope drop. It's helps Disney plan their resources but it doesn't help their "guests" at all. MM+ was created for Disney, not for us.

P.S. I realize you were not defending FP+. My earlier post was only to suggest why FP+ doesn't work as advertised.

 

[Monty]

So @WDW1974 has "extrapolated" everything he's complaining about, but when I accuse him of being a conspiracy theorist he gets his buns in a knot? An amazing bit of semantic self-protection that just shows he has nothing of substance to back up anything he's "extrapolated".

All predicated on an un-dated internal communique he "leaked" and that has been shown to have been overtaken by known facts.

But balance? Not so much. If something convinces me that at its core it's a bad idea, then I am not going to toss around a bunch of qualifers.

Yes, God forbid we should muddy the waters of conjecture and inference with qualifers [sic]. Facts just get in the way of a good pot-stir.

 

[IlikeDW]

Exactly, FP+ doesn't increase ride capacity and isn't any different than today. Yet consider Iger's words:

How does FP+ do that? It doesn't. We still have the same capacity issues we have with today's FP. FP+ solves nothing.

Yet Iger & co. are advertising this $1.5B boondoggle to the public as an amazing new experience, cynically acting as if slapping a "new & improved" label on something actually makes it new and improved. Iger is hoping his "guests" are too dimwitted to recognize false advertising and will throw more money his way.

FP+ won't fail exactly because it's essentially the same system that's been in use for 13 years, the main difference being is that we'll now have to scramble 60 days before we arrive to get FP+ rather than being present at the rope drop. It's helps Disney plan their resources but it doesn't help their "guests" at all. MM+ was created for Disney, not for us.

P.S. I realize you were not defending FP+. My earlier post was only to suggest why FP+ doesn't work as advertised.

I think what they are banking on is that by "bundling"(x number of prime attractions and x lesser) the fast passes, they will be able to distribute demand, I don't think that will work as well as they hope. This is going to received differently by different types of park goers. We have the Hardcore riders, the ones that need to ride everything by noon and then ride several 2 or three more times. They are not going to like FP+ since it cramps their style but by doing so Disney might be freeing up some fastpass seats for others. Then you have the meet and greet crowd, they may have a few rides that are must do, then they spend the rest of the day chasing characters with their kids autograph books. It looks like FP+ might give this crowd a chance to manage their day. Then there is the casual visitor who really has no priority for what they want they are on vacation and just want to experience Disney, they may get a FP+ they may not even know it exists. Personally I have been in each of the groups above, first visit tried to do everything. Then my daughter went through the character phase. Now we get to the parks early and are able to get the headliners done with relatively short waits and then do whatever we like whenever we like after that so we have been able to have good experiences without even using a fastpass or only getting one a day. If it works the way they think and they are able to manage guest flow, then FP+ will be an improvement for two of the three groups I listed. If their data is wrong as is often the case when trying to predict human behavior then things will stay as they are now or get worse for any one of the above groups, and the way I see it the Hyper Riders pretty much lose under any circumstance.

 

[disneyeater]

So, if you're an APer living in Clermont who decides to drive over at noon on ANY day you are not going to ever get a FP for TSMM or Soarin or Tron Track. It just won't happen. They need to book those slots. You can't have openings at 4 p.m. for anything.

As someone who is unsure about the MM+ program and is still undecided if the impact will be a negative one for me (and lets be real, that is who I care about when it comes to my vacation dollars), I enjoy the back and forth between @WDW1974 and @flynnibus. It is an interesting debate to hear from people on both sides of the initiave about what they thing the impact could be.

That said, with regards to your above statement, unless I am going in September, those FP are already gone with the current system by noon.

 

[GrumpyFan]

I'm kind of interested in this, but these numbers just don't seem right, I could be wrong, but they seem kind of high. I would be curious how the OP arrived at these.

I'll just try and break it down for Magic Kingdom.
The average daily attendance at MK for 2011 was around 32,500, based on THEA's estimate of 17.14 million guests.
Based on travel estimates, Disney hotels average about 80-82% occupancy rates in their 27,790 rooms, which (if my math is correct), means that roughly 22,500 rooms are filled with an average of 2.8 guests per room.

Estimated no. of guests at MK in 2011: 17,000,000
Average per day: 46,500

Number of Disney owned hotel rooms: 27,790
Average occupancy : 81%
Average no. of rooms occupied: 22,500
Average no. of guests per room: 2.8
Average no. of guests in Disney hotel rooms: 63,000
Estimate of guests from Disney hotel rooms in MK: 17,000 (Avg of hotel guests / 4 parks, inflated for most popular park)

So, we can guesstimate that roughly 17,000 people who are staying in a Disney owned hotel, will be in MK on a given day, and using FP+.

The way Disney would appear to be running the FP+ program is similar to the way they did the Million Dreams FastPass giveaways. Basically, they give you the option of allocating or using a Fastpass on one E-ticket, one or two C/D tickets, then one or two A-C tickets. You would have a total of 4 Fastpasses you could use, but they're broken down by the attraction type. Higher value attractions, which are higher demand, are limited to just one, or maybe two on rare occasions.

This would mean, those 17,000 guests, would potentially be acquiring 68,000 FP+s (4 * 17,000), but, they're still only going to be able to use 1 FP+ each for 1 one of the top attractions. Let's just say the following attractions are category 1 (D/E):

• Space Mountain
• Splash Mountain
• Big Thunder Mountain Railroad
• Mickey's Philharmagic
• Buzz Lightyear's Space Ranger Spin
• Peter Pan's Flight
• Jungle Cruise

Advanced FP+s would average out to be 2400 per attraction, based on the above listed (potential) 17,000 guests each being able to acquire one of FP+ for one of these attraction. It's safe to assume that some would be higher than that, but probably not much more than 3,000. Most all of the attractions listed though have a daily capacity throughput of more than 10,000 in 8 hours, so, in theory, it shouldn't pose a huge issue.

Note: I'm not claiming that I know better than the OP, I'm just showing my own numbers based on what I've been able to find, and using my own math, which I will readily admit, might be inaccurate.

 

[KTaylor]

Personally I understand the pros and cons of have the FP+ and sticking with the normal FP that are currently being used, but at the end of the day does any of it really matter? Sure I want to be able to ride everything 9 times in every park in a 4 day vacation, but that will never happen. What happened to Disney being about the magic and being surrounded by children that are experiencing all of this for the first time? Sure we could all sit back and debate both sides, but the final decision isn't up to any of us. I'm going to Disney in December for my 20th time and am taking my husband and 4 year old daughter for the first time and I promise when I walk through the gates of MK with my band on my wrist and my little girl in my arms the last thing that I will be worried about is the FP that I booked in October. With all of that said I'm not a huge fan of having to decide 60 days out to get the things I want, but if that means my family gets to experience what I consider to be the best parts of Disney well then sign me up!

 

[Skibum1970]

Probably a stupid question but is WDW basically a proving ground for the NextGen project? It seems like DL is getting ready for some of this stuff as well and I would imagine that the overseas parks will follow. Plus, WDW provides a large resort to practice with, while using the four different parks and the number of resorts of varying levels.

 

[bubbles1812]

T

Personally I understand the pros and cons of have the FP+ and sticking with the normal FP that are currently being used, but at the end of the day does any of it really matter? Sure I want to be able to ride everything 9 times in every park in a 4 day vacation, but that will never happen. What happened to Disney being about the magic and being surrounded by children that are experiencing all of this for the first time? Sure we could all sit back and debate both sides, but the final decision isn't up to any of us. I'm going to Disney in December for my 20th time and am taking my husband and 4 year old daughter for the first time and I promise when I walk through the gates of MK with my band on my wrist and my little girl in my arms the last thing that I will be worried about is the FP that I booked in October. With all of that said I'm not a huge fan of having to decide 60 days out to get the things I want, but if that means my family gets to experience what I consider to be the best parts of Disney well then sign me up!

The band might be on your mind if it doesn't work correctly... All the RFID readers kept rejecting guests at the Animal Kingdom this morning. And Those FP you booked months ago might be on your mind if you don't end up getting them or getting the ones you wanted.

But anyways, the purpose of this thread IS to debate back and forth about the merits of FP+, MM+, ect. Just because it is coming doesn't mean there can't be discussion. Sorry guess I'm just confused by the purpose of your post

 

[Genie of the Lamp]

Probably a stupid question but is WDW basically a proving ground for the NextGen project? It seems like DL is getting ready for some of this stuff as well and I would imagine that the overseas parks will follow. Plus, WDW provides a large resort to practice with, while using the four different parks and the number of resorts of varying levels.

It's not stupid. Anyhow yeah WDW is the proving ground for the NGP. If it succeeds like Disney thinks will happen and in turn recieve a sustainable/profitable ROI, then they will incorporate elements of this into its other resorts/parks. That's one reason why I think WDW was chosen by the higher ups simply because WDW is the largest vacation destination and #1 tourist spot in the world to go along with other reasons in play here. So if they can look at the spreadsheet and say "gee we got this to work at our most profitable and visited resort (WDW), what makes us think that our guests at other parks won't want to have a chance at participating in this".

 

[KTaylor]

T
The band might be on your mind if it doesn't work correctly... All the RFID readers kept rejecting guests at the Animal Kingdom this morning. And Those FP you booked months ago might be on your mind if you don't end up getting them or getting the ones you wanted.

But anyways, the purpose of this thread IS to debate back and forth about the merits of FP+, MM+, ect. Just because it is coming doesn't mean there can't be discussion. Sorry guess I'm just confused by the purpose of your post

I'm all for the debating honestly, I enjoy reading it and its allowing me to get a better knowledge of what I need to think about prior to making my final decisions on my 60 day mark. I wasn't trying to get anyone to stop debating their point of view at all. All I was saying is that no matter what everyone in this discussion like or dislikes we are going to have to live with what Disney decides, and that no matter how long the lines are or how much extra planning I have to do in the eyes of my 4 year old it will still be the most magical place on Earth.

 

[disneygirl1]

Are you able to use the Fastpass+ yet? We were there is Dec and were chosen to test it and we loved it. Heading back in June and was wondering if it would be available yet.

 

[Monty]

Are you able to use the Fastpass+ yet? We were there is Dec and were chosen to test it and we loved it. Heading back in June and was wondering if it would be available yet.

I'm pretty sure they're still doing intermittent testing. No firm date on actual implementation.

 

[Hedwig's Keeper]

Yeah that's right, what if you don't want a scratchy, sweaty wristband on your wrist all day? Can you get it as a lanyard instead?

 

[prfctlyximprct]

Yeah that's right, what if you don't want a scratchy, sweaty wristband on your wrist all day? Can you get it as a lanyard instead?

This is really just the beginning of the customization options for MagicBand, as there will be bands representing characters such as the Fab 5, Disney Princesses, and PIXAR characters, just to name a few. There are even rumors that companies like Dooney & Burke and Swarovski will produce upscale vanity bands that guests can buy as well. If a wristband isn’t your thing, Disney plans on creating watches, keychains, and various jewelry that can also serve as your MagicBand. Taken from .

I've been to all inclusive resorts in Costa Rica and Punta Cana and wearing a wristband all week really isn't as bad as people are making it out to be.