MM+ Why we can't have nice things.

[GoofGoof]

It's pointless right....if you add another line (FP) into another line (standby) of course the standby line will then become longer at times....this isn't rocket science

What people are failing to see is that regardless of what line they are in, the same amount of people will ride per hour as before. Some could wait a little longer in standby lines and the same people could go through other lines quicker using FP so I'm not sure why we are trying to study this and come to some miraculous conclusion

The ride capacity doesn't change. You are correct that the same number of people will ride under each system. The difference is who those riders are. If a "super user" like PO4 goes from riding an attraction 4 times to just once that opens up 3 additional ride slots to someone else. This is the socialism impact of FP+. It spreads the wealth at the detriment of the seasoned veteran or super user or FP commando whichever name you prefer. This is an online forum frequented by seasoned veterans. Why do you think the majority of people here are unhappy with FP+?

 

[ford91exploder]

Lines remain the same if demand remains the same.
Wait times increase if
What I am suggesting is that FP+ is designed to alter behavior. As such, demand might increase or decrease.

A family of 4 might have completely skipped Peter Pan if there was a 60-minute Standby line wait time. Now, with FP+, they might have a guaranteed time that they've scheduled their day around.

Me, I often was able to get 2 FP per day for Peter Pan. Now that I'm limited to one per day, I'm only going to ride it once.

Someone might have shown up at TSM at 10 AM and gotten an 8 PM FP return time. Are they really going to still be in the park 10 hours later to use it?

Conversely, if someone went online and got an 8 PM FP+ selection for TSM, are they going to change their plans so that they are at TSM at 8 PM?

FP+ alters behavior. The question is: which changed behaviors will have the most influence on the system as a whole?

It's a bit like trying to predict the weather. It can be done but there are a lot of variables that make predictions difficult.

It's pointless right....if you add another line (FP) into another line (standby) of course the standby line will then become longer at times....this isn't rocket science

What people are failing to see is that regardless of what line they are in, the same amount of people will ride per hour as before. Some could wait a little longer in standby lines and the same people could go through other lines quicker using FP so I'm not sure why we are trying to study this and come to some miraculous conclusion

Not if latency increases. If it takes longer to admit guests to the queue wait times will increase in both lines. If latency is high enough it may result in post merge queue not being full. A condition we call queue starvation in non park contexts. This results fewer guests per hour and a decrease in the effective ride capacity. Actual ride capacity remains the same of course

 

[WDWDad13]

Why do you think the majority of people here are unhappy with FP+?

Because many have not used it, many do not have an open mind and couldn't acknowledge anything good Disney actually does, many are too busy slobbering over a geek wizard boy on a broomstick, and if WDW isn't doing exactly what they think they should be doing then they are just ridiculously awful and will be closing down for good when Uni takes over the world soon. I think that covers much of it

 

[GoofGoof]

Not if latency increases. If it takes longer to admit guests to the queue wait times will increase in both lines. If latency is high enough it may result in post merge queue not being full. A condition we call queue starvation in non park contexts. This results fewer guests per hour and a decrease in the effective ride capacity. Actual ride capacity remains the same of course

In theory I guess this could happen. In a week last month I did not once experience this. There were no empty ride vehicles going out while people waited in standby. We actually had the opposite problem at BTMRR. We used FP+ and for whatever reason the CM at the merge just stood there and did nothing after we scanned our bands the 2nd time instead of stopping the standby line and letting us in. We had to facilitate our own merge of 8 people since there was a constant flow coming through the standby line. I'm not saying it can't happen, just that I didn't see it.

 

[marni1971]

Dear oh dear. Chips are down, blame Uni.

 

[WDWDad13]

Dear oh dear. Chips are down, blame Uni.

No...blame NGE...tis the season....remember that is the root of all evil in this world

 

[kittybubbles]

I have not used the bands yet and I have no plans to visit WDW in the near future, but my thinking/opinion of how workable the system would be when I first heard of the plans went something like this:

My family will not ride TSMM without a fast pass (unless we ride it shortly after rope drop). If we wanted to ride, we could get to the park at rope drop and wait in the line to get a fast pass (or just ride it then) or both if we wanted to ride twice.

When hearing about FP+, my mind made some quick assumptions. I thought:

TSMM can allow 2000 rides an hour (I assume it's throughput is far lower)
For a 10 hour day that is 20,000 guest rides.
Say Disney has 20,000 guest rooms with an average of three guest per room, with four parks, I assumed one forth of those 60,000 on-site guest would want to ride TSMM on a given day.
So 15,000 on-site guest trying for 20,000 slots. That leaves 5,000 slots for what? Standby? Day of FP? What about AP holders, will they get to pre-book? (At the time I was an AP holder, so I could have said we...I also stayed on site sometimes, but always stayed in Orlando when I would visit).

Anyway, I couldn't picture Disney telling any of their on-site guest that their are no FP+ for TSMM available during their stay and telling them this before they even leave for their trip....so in my mind, 1st priority needs to be for on-site guest.

Now if I show up when this is all out of the 'testing' phase, won't FP+ return times for some of those guest be during the first hour? So riding TSMM at rope drop might not save me a long wait anymore....

So my point is that I do not have to try the new system to know that, mathematically speaking, it will have an impact on my experience.

 

[WDWDad13]

I have not used the bands yet and I have no plans to visit WDW in the near future, but my thinking/opinion of how workable the system would be when I first heard of the plans went something like this:

My family will not ride TSMM without a fast pass (unless we ride it shortly after rope drop). If we wanted to ride, we could get to the park at rope drop and wait in the line to get a fast pass (or just ride it then) or both if we wanted to ride twice.

When hearing about FP+, my mind made some quick assumptions. I thought:

TSMM can allow 2000 rides an hour (I assume it's throughput is far lower)
For a 10 hour day that is 20,000 guest rides.
Say Disney has 20,000 guest rooms with an average of three guest per room, with four parks, I assumed one forth of those 60,000 on-site guest would want to ride TSMM on a given day.
So 15,000 on-site guest trying for 20,000 slots. That leaves 5,000 slots for what? Standby? Day of FP? What about AP holders, will they get to pre-book? (At the time I was an AP holder, so I could have said we...I also stayed on site sometimes, but always stayed in Orlando when I would visit).

Anyway, I couldn't picture Disney telling any of their on-site guest that their are no FP+ for TSMM available during their stay and telling them this before they even leave for their trip....so in my mind, 1st priority needs to be for on-site guest.

Now if I show up when this is all out of the 'testing' phase, won't FP+ return times for some of those guest be during the first hour? So riding TSMM at rope drop might not save me a long wait anymore....

So my point is that I do not have to try the new system to know that, mathematically speaking, it will have an impact on my experience.

You're making ALOT of assumptions in your analysis and without even trying it

 

[marni1971]

No...blame NGE...tis the season....remember that is the root of all evil in this world

You blamed Uni and the "slobbering over a geek wizard boy". To quote you.

If WDW was the only resort in Orlando or even the state the arguments over NextGen would be the same.

 

[GoofGoof]

Because many have not used it, many do not have an open mind and couldn't acknowledge anything good Disney actually does, many are too busy slobbering over a geek wizard boy on a broomstick, and if WDW isn't doing exactly what they think they should be doing then they are just ridiculously awful and will be closing down for good when Uni takes over the world soon. I think that covers much of it

No, some of that does happen around here, but in this case Disney is taking something away from them and giving it as a benefit to others. I was not an overly active FP user in the past so I'm not as impacted by the 3 FP restriction. I also generally liked to plan ahead and used ADRs for meals so I'm not that inconvenienced with the planning ahead aspect. For me FP+ isn't a big negative and may actually in some cases be a positive, but I can understand why someone who pulled 7 to 10 FPs a day would feel the system is a huge negative.

I still think the 1 area that has some potential impact for me could be the impact on standby lines. I'm very interested to have some more factual data to chew on. Not theories or anecdotal evidence. If standby lines are negatively impacted the way some people theorize then it will have a direct negative impact on me. In my November trip I saw no evidence of longer standby lines, but it was a very low crowd time and the system was still not fully rolled out with legacy FP still around. The real question is how much longer does the wait need to be before it is felt. What if the avg standby time goes up 3 mins, is that a big deal? How about 5 mins? 10 mins? Each person is going to have their own opinion on when the wait is no longer justified for the ride.

 

[|Q|]

If WDW was the only resort in Orlando or even the state the arguments over NextGen would be the same.

Actually it could be worst, without the boy wizard attracting new visitors to Orlando. I actually think WWOHP could be dampening the MM+ debacle.

 

[WDWDad13]

You blamed Uni and the "slobbering over a geek wizard boy". To quote you.

If WDW was the only resort in Orlando or even the state the arguments over NextGen would be the same.

I didn't blame uni for anything.... Seems I hit a nerve though.

 

[kittybubbles]

You're making ALOT of assumptions in your analysis and without even trying it

I agree I made many assumptions, but I also have done many business plans for the company I work for and I have seen how well my predictions work.

I know I was using assumptions which is why I set throughput at 2K although I am sure it is far lower. I also know Disney has more than 20k rooms available for pre-booking FP+.

I also know Disney increased the amount of FP's giving for TSMM compared to when it first opened for I recall a 60 minute wait using all the switchbacks in the first room (where you do not see Mr potato head)...a 90 minute wait use to use outside switchbacks, last time I was in the park, a 70 min standby hardly used any switchbacks in the first room.

But you are correct in that I have not tried the system, but I will also add that no one has until they let AP holders pre-book FP+ (if that is still the plan). I assume you needed an on-site stay in order to experience the system while I have had a hard time justifying the expense of an on-site stay....now if you stayed on-site just so you could use the new system, then there is a good chance Disney increased your spend for those days...so they are getting a return on their investment already. (I am not trying to be mean nor argumentative, just trying to present a different way of thinking about it).

There is no right or wrong answer here and I had other reasons for not renewing my family's AP's at WDW this year...and it is true that my days in Orlando are spent at UNI.

 

[ABQ]

I'll make an assumption of my own too. Assuming, one day, everyone entering the WDW parks will have to use a magic band of some sort and no legacy fast pass options exist any longer, will the issue of lines at attractions be sort of normalized? Everyone will be on the same system? I suppose those staying on Disney property will have an advantage and be able to plan FP+ events 60 days out. OK....but...do those guests no deserve a perk like this? It's not like they aren't paying a premium to stay on property when everyone knows it's far cheaper to stay outside the bubble. Once this inevitable change takes place (assuming once again) then the field is leveled. Nope, people won't have 8 fast passes for TSMM, but that's probably for the better as some other guest who was cheated out of any at all may have a chance now.

 

[ford91exploder]

In theory I guess this could happen. In a week last month I did not once experience this. There were no empty ride vehicles going out while people waited in standby. We actually had the opposite problem at BTMRR. We used FP+ and for whatever reason the CM at the merge just stood there and did nothing after we scanned our bands the 2nd time instead of stopping the standby line and letting us in. We had to facilitate our own merge of 8 people since there was a constant flow coming through the standby line. I'm not saying it can't happen, just that I didn't see it.

Probably only omni mover rides would exhibit the empty vehicles Others with start stop loading would just slow down

It's why we need to study the patterns but it looks like @GoofGoof noted some CM's are creatively interpreting the rules to speed things up


When I was there in august and in standby asked a CM about why standby was stuck. And CM said we need to let a fixed number of FP users on for each standby.

 

[GoofGoof]

Now if I show up when this is all out of the 'testing' phase, won't FP+ return times for some of those guest be during the first hour? So riding TSMM at rope drop might not save me a long wait anymore....

Your math seems pretty solid. I actually think the total non-FP availability will be much less at certain times of the year when the hotels and parks are more crowded. Your numbers assume a 75/25 split but that could probably go as high as 90/10 during peak times.

If someone has a return time of 9 to 10 for TSMM they are less likely to get to DHS at rope drop. Actually if they have any time reserved for TSMM they may skip rope drop completely. In the past you needed to get there early if you wanted a good FP return time. I know on my recent trip we slept in the day we went to DHS since we had TSMM booked for the afternoon. It's probably the 1 park where you should see a meaningful decrease in people lining up for rope drop.

 

[ParentsOf4]

So my point is that I do not have to try the new system to know that, mathematically speaking, it will have an impact on my experience.

TSM by the numbers:

Depending on how efficiently TSM is running, it handles about 1000-to-1200 guests/hour. Assuming a 12-hour day at DHS, that comes out to 12,000-to-14,400 guests/day. Let's use the midpoint of 13,200 as the typical number.

If we assume 80% of TSM's ride capacity is devoted to FP+, then that's 10,560 FP+ available per day.

Multiply that by 365 days and that's 3,854,400 per year. Roughly, that's how many TSM FP+ selections are available per year.

Disney’s 2012 Annual Report (AR) specifies 9,850,000 “Available Room Nights” domestically. That includes WDW and DLR. The AR reports an occupancy rate of 81%. That means about 7,880,000 occupied rooms annually.

That total is dominated by WDW, which has over 20 onsite hotels (excluding the Swan & Dolphin and Shades of Green), including several of Disney’s largest. Let’s round the domestic occupied number down to 7,000,000.

Assuming 3 guests per room as an average, that’s 21 million guest-night stays per year.

So we have roughly 4 million TSM FP+ selections for 21 million onsite guests.

In other words, if each onsite guest uses one TSM FP+ selection over the course of a 5-night stay, then these guests will use pretty much all of TSM’s FP+ selections.

Offsite guests?

Out of luck I guess.

 

[GoofGoof]

Probably only omni mover rides would exhibit the empty vehicles Others with start stop loading would just slow down

It's why we need to study the patterns but it looks like @GoofGoof noted some CM's are creatively interpreting the rules to speed things up


When I was there in august and in standby asked a CM about why standby was stuck. And CM said we need to let a fixed number of FP users on for each standby.

I'm sure in most cases they will still let a certain number of FP users through before they let standby in, but if there is nobody in the FP line they won't just hold back the standby line for no reason. That makes no sense and if a CM was doing that he/she was probably just poorly trained or "a little slow" or both.

 

[marni1971]

I didn't blame uni for anything.... Seems I hit a nerve though.

Funny that. That's how it read.

Nerve? Nah. One company's investing in attractions. The other in anything but.

I still like both but admire one.

 

[GoofGoof]

TSM by the numbers:

Depending on how efficiently TSM is running, it handles about 1000-to-1200 guests/hour. Assuming a 12-hour day at DHS, that comes out to 12,000-to-14,400 guests/day. Let's use the midpoint of 13,200 as the typical number.

If we assume 80% of TSM's ride capacity is devoted to FP+, then that's 10,560 FP+ available per day.

Multiply that by 365 days and that's 3,854,400 per year. Roughly, that's how many TSM FP+ selections are available per year.

Disney’s 2012 Annual Report (AR) specifies 9,850,000 “Available Room Nights” domestically. That includes WDW and DLR. The AR reports an occupancy rate of 81%. That means about 7,880,000 occupied rooms annually.

That total is dominated by WDW, which has over 20 onsite hotels (excluding the Swan & Dolphin and Shades of Green), including several of Disney’s largest. Let’s round the domestic occupied number down to 7,000,000.

Assuming 3 guests per room as an average, that’s 21 million guest-night stays per year.

So we have roughly 4 million TSM FP+ selections for 21 million onsite guests.

In other words, if each onsite guest uses one TSM FP+ selection over the course of a 5-night stay, then these guests will use pretty much all of TSM’s FP+ selections.

Offsite guests?

Out of luck I guess.

Your math seems pretty sound. If you believe the TEA numbers then AK has roughly 20% of WDW total attendance which works out to your 1 day out of each 5 day pass. There are barely enough TSMM for onsite guests. The real issue is busy times. The average occupancy may be 81% but at times is much less and at busy times much more. During a busy week there will not even be enough for onsite guests. How about times like Star Wars weekends when DHS attendance spikes above the normal run rate. All issues for this one ride.

If you are staying off property best to visit during off peak times when you have a better shot of availability. When is off peak time? With free DDP, DVC (which has no down season) and all of the attempts to draw guests in during lower crowd times it's less obvious when off peak is.