MM+ Why we can't have nice things.

[ParentsOf4]

I still wonder about FP+ success stories. For those successful outings, do you feel you spent more time in the park for spontaneous spending? I feel like we could see a trend where people aren't compelled to show up early, and therfore wind up spending less time in the park and less money. Similarly it could be now more efficient to squeeze AK in in the mornings with fps reserved at another park for the afternoon and evening.

Touring parks more efficiently could mean less money in disneys pocket...

It's really tough to try to use limited experiences and extrapolate what effect they will have on the whole.

There simply are too many categories of guests to neatly fit into set patterns. For every Example A, someone can come up with Example B.

We have to trust that Disney expected an increase in the numbers based on the data it had.

Sales should go up.

The question is: Will sales go up enough to justify the cost?

With what's sure to happen at Universal this summer, it's going to be difficult to separate the bump WDW will get from Diagon Alley (WDW also got a bump from WWOHP) with the bump they will get from MM+.

Recall though what Disney CFO Jay Rasulo said:

"But if you look at it on an overall basis, those new initiatives are accretive -- were accretive in 2013 -- continue to be accretive in 2014. I said in my comments that the margin impact of that in fiscal 2013 was about 30 basis points on our overall margins. And this year, we're looking at about a $300 million expense item, and more or less the same amount on the revenue side. So, you know, we'll continue to see accretion into 2014 and ramping upward beyond that."

Basically, Disney is prepping Wall Street for nothing exciting in 2014. However, it's also a game any well-versed CFO knows how to play; undersell future performance so that any success beyond that is seen as a net positive.

All things considered, I can't imagine WDW not getting a bump from Diagon Alley. Furthermore, I fully expect Disney to claim that it was MM+ all along.

It's how the game is played.

 

[Ben_since_1971]

I still wonder about FP+ success stories. For those successful outings, do you feel you spent more time in the park for spontaneous spending? I feel like we could see a trend where people aren't compelled to show up early, and therfore wind up spending less time in the park and less money. Similarly it could be now more efficient to squeeze AK in in the mornings with fps reserved at another park for the afternoon and evening.

Touring parks more efficiently could mean less money in disneys pocket...

My wife and I spent no more or less time or money in the parks. As we are somewhat regulars (every year since 1997), we know what we like and not like. What FP+ enabled me to do was plan days more efficiently so that we could do more on the days we did go to the parks. TSM was the biggest winner. We are not ones to get to the parks at Rope Drop, nor do we like spending an hour or more in line. I had ridden it, but my wife hadn't. Using FP+, we were both able to do it and she LOVED it. I don't have any quantifiable data to back me up, but I feel we were able to do more. Moneywise - no, we did not spend any more or less.

As I said before, I am a planner. Being able to do that extra planning was worth it to me. I also look at it as me having an advantage over others who may not be as knowledgeable on how to use it. But I had that advantage even before MM+ (past experience, using touring plans, doing my research).

Also as I said before - it works for ME. I feel bad that others have had such horrendous issues. I will admit that this whole system seems to be a tad bit more complicated than it needs to be, because from my experience, Joe Average Disney tourist wouldn't know Bugs Bunny from Mickey Mouse without a scorecard. But they have a reason for doing it, and only time will show whether this is another New Coke, or the next Amazon/iphone/Twitter/Facebook.

 

[pheneix]

But can you blame them. (Also I would like to note that Comcast know where I am right now I have received emails Minutes after logging to pirate bay stating that this was a dangers activity.) Disney does not have the luxury of examining every aspect of their guest/consumers lives so they have to do as much as they can when they are on park property if they even want to compete.
I am stating these as a Graduate student in Computer Science and some background in data-mining.

The amount of infrastructure spending and labor required to make this beast work will cripple any theme park that tries to replicate this in whole. Only the WDW campus in Orlando has the economies of scale to make this work.

Universal can't afford to experiment like this. Neither can DLR in Anaheim. Or TDR in Tokyo. I don't argue that the opportunity is intriguing but this will wreck any theme park that tries to replicate what Disney has done in Orlando. I think its probably going to wreck WDW's viability as a vacation destination in the long term too, making the conscious decision to stop investing in new rides and attractions and to instead focus on "other" ways to derive income from these properties.

Disney is operating on blue ocean principles assuming that its competitors will behave like they have in the past (mostly irrelevant). Not true in Orlando. Not true in Europe. Not true in Japan. Not true in California. WDW will probably find ways to make lots of money, that I do not doubt. But if you actually like theme parks for reasons beyond brand association, WDW is gonna be one ugly park to actually experience.

 

[ScoutN]

Those that haven't been scrapped before installation.

On that note, Monday the graveyard effects were all off or broken at HM.

 

[pheneix]

It's really tough to try to use limited experiences and extrapolate what effect they will have on the whole.

There simply are too many categories of guests to neatly fit into set patterns. For every Example A, someone can come up with Example B.

We have to trust that Disney expected an increase in the numbers based on the data it had.

Sales should go up.

The question is: Will sales go up enough to justify the cost?

With what's sure to happen at Universal this summer, it's going to be difficult to separate the bump WDW will get from Diagon Alley (WDW also got a bump from WWOHP) with the bump they will get from MM+.

Recall though what Disney CFO Jay Rasulo said:

"But if you look at it on an overall basis, those new initiatives are accretive -- were accretive in 2013 -- continue to be accretive in 2014. I said in my comments that the margin impact of that in fiscal 2013 was about 30 basis points on our overall margins. And this year, we're looking at about a $300 million expense item, and more or less the same amount on the revenue side. So, you know, we'll continue to see accretion into 2014 and ramping upward beyond that."

Basically, Disney is prepping Wall Street for nothing exciting in 2014. However, it's also a game any well-versed CFO knows how to play; undersell future performance so that any success beyond that is seen as a net positive.

All things considered, I can't imagine WDW not getting a bump from Diagon Alley. Furthermore, I fully expect Disney to claim that it was MM+ all along.

It's how the game is played.

Oooh but Universal was still trying to be a successful one day attraction in 2010. Now they are a thriving 2-3 day resort that's ready to lay claims on that territory for the long haul. I don't think the outcome next year for Disney is as predictable.

 

[ParentsOf4]

Oooh but Universal was still trying to be a successful one day attraction in 2010. Now they are a thriving 2-3 day resort that's ready to lay claims on that territory for the long haul. I don't think the outcome next year for Disney is as predictable.

Yes but, as you point out, Universal is still no more than a 3-day resort.

When the Potterphiles are done with Universal, they're going to want to head over to WDW and check out what's happening there.

After all, they haven't been to WDW since 2010 (you know, when WWOHP opened ) and they're going to want to see if anything nearly as exciting is happening down I-4.

They might be in for a little disappointment.

 

[pheneix]

The costs associated with ramping this system up are well beyond anything that was forecast when this project was to be exported to other properties. Just one slightly vague example:

Say you thought you could provide wifi to an entire theme park with, say, 12 units of a very expensive piece of equipment that supposedly would provide stable wifi for the entire facility.

Now discover when you install it that you actually need one of those units for every fifty feet of guest path.

And that's just one of the simple examples.

 

[doctornick]

Universal can't afford to experiment like this. Neither can DLR in Anaheim. Or TDR in Tokyo. I don't argue that the opportunity is intriguing but this will wreck any theme park that tries to replicate what Disney has done in Orlando. I think its probably going to wreck WDW's viability as a vacation destination in the long term too, making the conscious decision to stop investing in new rides and attractions and to instead focus on "other" ways to derive income from these properties.

But all this only works in making money if people continue to go to WDW in droves. If a lack of investment in new rides and attractions causes WDW attendence to drop significantly, then they would be forced to invest in the parksas a way to keep the customer base attending. At some point, they have to give guests a reason to keep coming back and there are insiders on here who claim that they are already seeing attendence slip. No matter how one views TDO (or Burbank's attitude towards WDW), they aren't going to just let attendence drop without doing something about it.

 

[bhg469]

It's really tough to try to use limited experiences and extrapolate what effect they will have on the whole.

There simply are too many categories of guests to neatly fit into set patterns. For every Example A, someone can come up with Example B.

We have to trust that Disney expected an increase in the numbers based on the data it had.

Sales should go up.

The question is: Will sales go up enough to justify the cost?

With what's sure to happen at Universal this summer, it's going to be difficult to separate the bump WDW will get from Diagon Alley (WDW also got a bump from WWOHP) with the bump they will get from MM+.

Recall though what Disney CFO Jay Rasulo said:

"But if you look at it on an overall basis, those new initiatives are accretive -- were accretive in 2013 -- continue to be accretive in 2014. I said in my comments that the margin impact of that in fiscal 2013 was about 30 basis points on our overall margins. And this year, we're looking at about a $300 million expense item, and more or less the same amount on the revenue side. So, you know, we'll continue to see accretion into 2014 and ramping upward beyond that."

Basically, Disney is prepping Wall Street for nothing exciting in 2014. However, it's also a game any well-versed CFO knows how to play; undersell future performance so that any success beyond that is seen as a net positive.

All things considered, I can't imagine WDW not getting a bump from Diagon Alley. Furthermore, I fully expect Disney to claim that it was MM+ all along.

It's how the game is played.

Hold up a second, do you think mm+ will bump their attendance? You cannot believe that RFID bracelets and scheduling a ride months in advanced is going to draw a single person...

 

[pheneix]

Yes but, as you point out, Universal is still no more than a 3-day resort.

When the Potterphiles are done with Universal, they're going to want to head over to WDW and check out what's happening there.

After all, they haven't been to WDW since 2010 (you know, when WWOHP opened ) and they're going to want to see if anything nearly as exciting is happening down I-4.

They might be in for a little disappointment.

I think Universal is having some success at creating an attendance base that doesn't visit WDW at all. Among my social circles here in Orlando I've seen a lot of Disney passes let go for passes to Universal instead. And when my pass expires next year, I'm not renewing it anymore either.

Walt Disney World is not worth my money anymore. No matter what the price is. THAT'S the customer Universal wants. If WDW still gets 50 million foamers a year when its all said and done, let them have it. To some degree those will be guests Universal doesn't even want.

Wal-Mart is still the biggest retailer in the world. It didn't stop Target from making an impact.

 

[ParentsOf4]

Hold up a second, do you think mm+ will bump their attendance? You cannot believe that RFID bracelets and scheduling a ride months in advanced is going to draw a single person...

MM+ should bump WDW's revenue.

Diagon Alley will bump WDW's attendance and revenue.

WDW used to bake a bigger pie all the time.

Now, it's Universal that has learned how to bake that bigger pie.

 

[pheneix]

But all this only works in making money if people continue to go to WDW in droves. If a lack of investment in new rides and attractions causes WDW attendence to drop significantly, then they would be forced to invest in the parksas a way to keep the customer base attending. At some point, they have to give guests a reason to keep coming back and there are insiders on here who claim that they are already seeing attendence slip. No matter how one views TDO (or Burbank's attitude towards WDW), they aren't going to just let attendence drop without doing something about it.

Lack of investment runs well past just not building enough new experiences. Deferred infrastructure spending is out of control. Close to $3b just to fix water and power and transport problems alone. All could have been taken care of over time but postponed. You wouldn't BELIEVE how furious TDO is for even having to expand MK employee parking or being strong armed into building a proper north entrance to the resort. These guys hate spending any kind of money on anything.

And don't even get me started on the upkeep in the parks. I never thought I would be saying this but I have legitimate safety concerns regarding Disney maintenance and operations that keep me from riding certain attractions at their parks. The ability to safely maintain these heavy pieces of machinery day in and day out seems to be absent at WDW these days. I'm amazed more accidents don't happen.

I'm sorry I have to state things in such a chiche way, but its needed.

 

[xdan0920]

Lack of investment runs well past just not building enough new experiences. Deferred infrastructure spending is out of control. Close to $3b just to fix water and power and transport problems alone. All could have been taken care of over time but postponed. You wouldn't BELIEVE how furious TDO is for even having to expand MK employee parking or being strong armed into building a proper north entrance to the resort. These guys hate spending any kind of money on anything.

And don't even get me started on the upkeep in the parks. I never thought I would be saying this but I have legitimate safety concerns regarding Disney maintenance and operations that keep me from riding certain attractions at their parks. The ability to safely maintain these heavy pieces of machinery day in and day out seems to be absent at WDW these days. I'm amazed more accidents don't happen.

That last bit is quite disconcerting. Care to elaborate a bit on which attractions you are referring to?

 

[ParentsOf4]

I think Universal is having some success at creating an attendance base that doesn't visit WDW at all. Among my social circles here in Orlando I've seen a lot of Disney passes let go for passes to Universal instead. And when my pass expires next year, I'm not renewing it anymore either.

Right but WDW still has the inside track on the under-48" crowd.

There's nothing happening at Universal right now () that's threatening WDW's market in that arena.

Right now, Universal is where all the excitement is if you are above a certain age. Every child that I know over the height of 54" wants Universal, not WDW. To them, WDW is a "kiddie park".

However, if Burbank every gets its act together and Avatarland and Star Wars Land come to fruition, I suspect your social circles will be opting for those WDW passes once more.

Of course, we might be waiting a while for that to happen.

 

[GoofGoof]

Right but WDW still has the inside track on the under-48" crowd.

There's nothing happening at Universal right now () that's threatening WDW's market in that arena.

Right now, Universal is where all the excitement is if you are above a certain age. Every child that I know over the height of 54" wants Universal, not WDW. WDW is a "kiddie park".

However, if Burbank every gets its act together and Avatarland and Star Wars Land come to fruition, I suspect your social circles will be opting for those WDW passes once more.

Of course, we might be waiting a while for that to happen.

This...and from what is speculated Universal is looking to take market share from WDW directly. They are building more family friendly dark rides with Potter phase 2 to try to compete. They are also building a "value" resort with possible additional resorts in the pipeline. There is no way Comcast wants to limit itself to attracting just a small niche market focused mostly on locals with inexpensive APs when the golden goose, 800 pound gorilla is families with young kids. If they start eating into that market then WDW might begin to worry.

 

[pheneix]

Right but WDW still has the inside track on the under-48" crowd.

There's nothing happening at Universal right now () that's threatening WDW's market in that arena.

Right now, Universal is where all the excitement is if you are above a certain age. Every child that I know over the height of 54" wants Universal, not WDW. WDW is a "kiddie park".

However, if Burbank every gets its act together and Avatarland and Star Wars Land come to fruition, I suspect your social circles will be opting for those WDW passes once more.

Of course, we might be waiting a while for that to happen.

[/aimless rant on]

For my own part, I'm off this boat when my pass expires. Star Wars and Avatar aren't gonna lure me back when I can literally FLY TO JAPAN and get better Disney theme park value for my money AND get a Disney theme park experience that's actually like the parks I grew up with.

I mean, there's individual attractions at WDW that I still enjoy but they do not add up the whole of the outrageous amount of money Disney charges for tickets now. Especially when the parks are run as bad as they are. I can say similar things about Disney's restaurants. I have had good food served to me at WDW recently, sure, but it was absolutely NOT worth the price that was charged. I am too well traveled and experienced to know better.

That last bit probably makes me a guest that Disney would rather not be bothered with serving anymore. Fine by me. Universal and Sea World still know how to earn business.

[/aimless rant over]

 

[marni1971]

Right now, Universal is where all the excitement is if you are above a certain age. Every child that I know over the height of 54" wants Universal, not WDW. WDW is a "kiddie park"...

Something Eisner identified as a looming problem for Disneyland. In 1985.

 

[pheneix]

That last bit is quite disconcerting. Care to elaborate a bit on which attractions you are referring to?

I don't want to call out any one ride on the internet because most of the people who work on these rides do work really hard to ensure that people, you know, don't die. What is posted here can and does have real world implications for real people. It is not possible to change an entire business. It is possible to get someone fired.

But deferred maintenance budgets. Less training. Lower standards at casting. They can make things inconsistent.

 

[WDWDad13]

Hold up a second, do you think mm+ will bump their attendance? You cannot believe that RFID bracelets and scheduling a ride months in advanced is going to draw a single person...

Actually I know examples of people who have and are planning Disney vacations just to try out the new magic bands and planning apps...I am not making this up

 

[pheneix]

Actually I know examples of people who have and are planning Disney vacations just to try out the new magic bands and planning apps...I am not making this up

I do too. And I wonder about them.....