I agree with your statement about Cars not being the #1 movie of the year. This summer is packed with huge tent pole movies. I think Pirates will wind up being the #1 movie of the year, but Capt America and Harry Potter each will put up a good fight.
The final Harry Potter has a considerably higher ceiling then the ones preceding it. The main difference being, this is the end of the road. Repeat viewings will go way up. Some people who typically wait for the DVD to hit will not wait for this one. This is going to be a major event movie. The biggest franchise in movie history is coming to a close. And it is not a tired franchise. The movies have gotten continually better over time. This will be the biggest of the Potter movies.
Way off-topic here, but so much better than the usual HW debate I can't help myself.
Every Potter film from
Goblet of Fire on has made $290-$301 billion. Even with repeat viewings from the faithful, I don't see this one making much more than that--the people that are going to see this movie were definitely out for
Half-Blood Prince as well, for instance. So while it will make a lot of money, don't see this hitting #1 for the Summer. (BTW, I didn't mean to imply I found this franchise tired...I actually consider 6 and 7.0 the best of the series.)
Pirates. Potential to be #1 in theory, but from the Super Bowl ad--in a room full of Disney fanatics--to previews--in the Pleasure Island 24--it just seems to be getting a lack-luster reaction. If it's as good as it looks, word of mouth might save it, but I think a lot of people were burned by
PotC 3.
Capt. America. One I singled out as a potential spoiler. Trailer looks amazing, Marvel can make a successful movie. But no steampunk* movie has ever done anything but underperform--
Wild Wild West,
League of Extraordinary Gentlemen,
Rocketeer,
Sky Captain...it suggests audiences don't like their scifi in a historical context. And if
Thor dissapoints, may reflect badly on Marvel. Or there may be superhero fatigue after Thor, Green Lantern and the X-Men.
Meanwhile,
Cars reputation and fanbase has grown since release. It's a kids movie. It's Pixar. And the trailer gets genuine laughs, even from adults. I think it will be huge.
*-Is there a word for WW II-era "steampunk" yet? Seems like it should be its own little subgenre, this will be at least the 3rd major movie in it.