Do you think that Disney world will reclose its gates due to the rising number of COVID cases in Florida and around the country?

Oddysey

Oddysey

Well-Known Member
lentesta said:
It's true that people don't need to ride Space Mountain. They don't need to eat in restaurants, stay in hotels, or to travel.

Except for the people whose jobs rely on theme parks, restaurants, hotels, and the travel industry. That's roughly 25MM of the 155MM jobs in the U.S. (about 16%). And, of course, the people employed in those industries spend money on everything else in the economy, like food, services, electronics, cars, and homes.

I think the vast majority of people's "Plan A" would've been to stay at home until we developed a vaccine. The U.S. doesn't have social programs to accomplish that. So a substantial part of the U.S. economy needed a Plan B.

Plan B The U.S. implemented additional unemployment insurance. That ends in 16 days and hasn't been extended. But let's assume that every person who needed it, got it, it all worked perfectly, and it was enough to cover everyone's expenses.

Employers got up to 2.5 months of payroll expenses through the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP). Let's say that all of that worked perfectly too, that companies didn't have other expenses besides payroll, and that everyone who needed the PPP, got it. Assuming that started in April, that would've lasted until mid-June. Emergency (EIDL) loans are available for up to $150K. Let's say that gets 2.5 months too, through the end of August, and that EIDL worked perfectly.

Plan C Thus, at the end of July (workers) or August (companies), lots of people need a Plan C. Let's assume that Plan C is that everyone perfectly followed what financial advisors said, and had 3 to 6 months of emergency money sitting around. That gets us to November to January.

Plan D Assuming everything went exactly to plan at every step along the way, workers and companies will run out of their own emergency savings and all existing government assistance programs starting in a little over 100 days from now.

The economy will not be fixed 100 days from now.

It's worth pointing out that 46 U.S. states plus the District of Columbia have laws that mandate balanced budgets - they can't run deficits, even if they wanted to implement their own emergency social programs. (They could change those laws, of course. As far as I can tell, no state is considering doing so.)

If you're trying to plan ahead, then, the two most likely options for Plan D are "hope the federal government helps" or "figure it out for yourself."

Again, the right thing to do would be for everyone to re-isolate until a vaccine is available. To do that without destroying the lives and livelihoods of 1/6th of the U.S. economy for the next decade, the federal government would need to indicate now that it's going to do whatever it takes to support the economy.

The federal government isn't doing that.

That's why businesses like theme parks are re-opening.

As usual, I could be wrong.
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Great post! This does not change your well made point, but I thought I would add a little info. I am a small business owner and we received both the PPP and EIDL. If you received both, it is to my understanding at this point that the EIDL must be payed back. To date this has not been made sufficiently clear, but this is what was described to me by my accountant and bank where we received the PPP funds.

The EIDL was meant to be a quick injection of capital to fill the gap until the PPP loans were distributed. However, it did not work well because the EIDL was not well funded and a larger than expected number of companies applied for it. In an effort to distribute to as many businesses as possible, the amount distributed to each business turned out to be a minuscule amount that didn't really serve to accomplish much of anything. For example, the EIDL we received was only 9% of 2.5 months worth of payroll for our company.

As a business owner I know a lot of businesses owners in my community and let me say that if you know how to hedge yourself against a major economic collapse then I advise everyone do so. I talked to the President/CEO of one of our community financial institutions last week and they are beginning to experience a massive uptick in customers not paying on their loans. So much so that I was told that they are "going to have to start doing things differently." Not sure what that means exactly but in the context of the conversation it did not sound good. I could be wrong about a major collapse and am hoping against hope that I am wrong. I would love to be wrong!

As you already alluded to, in a perfect world we would be able to quarantine and the Federal Government would fill the gap until there are at the very least viable treatment options. Unfortunately the United States Government is not capable of doing this, and this is why we are seeing businesses like the Disney Parks open during a surge.
 
T

Touchdown

Well-Known Member
legwand77 said:
Well there is evidence for over a month (frankly much longer than that) that hospitals have a plan, are acting on it and executing it fine as the have remained stable. I trust they will continue.
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Hospitals plan was to operate as normal and continue elective procedures so that they can stay financially viable. Once elective procedures are canceled they are officially off the plan and on crisis mitigation. Once that fails, the plan becomes triage and that’s when “death panels” occur and lots of people die because we run out of resources (see Italy.) Dies that sound like a good plan to you?

ParkerLoLs said:
I don't know why we keep trying to discuss things with irrational people. Save the energy and stop.
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You’re probably right, I won’t do it again.
 
K

ksa1314

New Member
I couldn’t believe when people were celebrating Disney opening last week, and now I REALLY can’t believe people are still going! This virus is out of control in Florida. If you are waiting because “the death rate isn’t that bad” it will be too late by the time it does get bad. Disney will not close on their own. The Florida government will not close Disney. What we can do is put pressure on Disney to close, for the safety of their guests and cast. This is the time to act, before it is too late. Be on the right side of history.
 
L

legwand77

Well-Known Member
Touchdown said:
Hospitals plan was to operate as normal and continue elective procedures so that they can stay financially viable. Once elective procedures are canceled they are officially off the plan and on crisis mitigation. Once that fails, the plan becomes triage and that’s when “death panels” occur and lots of people die because we run out of resources (see Italy.) Dies that sound like a good plan to you?



You’re probably right, I won’t do it again.
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Of course that is bad news, anyone can create a lot of doomsday scenarios. There is plenty of evidence that what we are seeing is not Italy or New York for that matter.
 
Parker in NYC

Parker in NYC

Well-Known Member
ksa1314 said:
I couldn’t believe when people were celebrating Disney opening last week, and now I REALLY can’t believe people are still going! This virus is out of control in Florida. If you are waiting because “the death rate isn’t that bad” it will be too late by the time it does get bad. Disney will not close on their own. The Florida government will not close Disney. What we can do is put pressure on Disney to close, for the safety of their guests and cast. This is the time to act, before it is too late. Be on the right side of history.
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Everyone outside of the Disney bubble finds the reopening preposterous. And I mean, outside of the portion of the Disney bubble who chooses to believe everything's fun and fancy free. And then when they find out Universal and Sea World opened, they're even MORE baffled.
 
L

legwand77

Well-Known Member
ParkerLoLs said:
Everyone outside of the Disney bubble finds the reopening preposterous. And I mean, outside of the portion of the Disney bubble who chooses to believe everything's fun and fancy free. And then when they find out Universal and Sea World opened, they're even MORE baffled.
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Might as well add in that a 12,000 student athlete national volleyball tournament is currently going on in Orlando this week, just down from Disney at the OCC. With teams all over the country.
 
H

havoc315

Well-Known Member
DisneyCane said:
It can if 400 people get discharged.
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But discharges are not keeping up with hospitalizations. The number of hospitalized patients has been trending dangerously upward.

Yes, there are plenty of hospital beds left *in the state.* But there are many hospitals that are already at or near capacity.

Florida didn't release *currently hospitalized* data until July 10th. So here are the numbers of currently hospitalized with Covid (taking into account new admissions and discharges):

July 10: 6,974
July 11: 7,186
July 12: 7,542
July 13: 8,051
July 14: 8,354
July 15: pending

So as we can see --- It's increasing very quickly, with admissions far outpacing discharges.
A 20% increase in LESS than a week.

If that pace were to be sustained, the entire hospital capacity for the state would be gone in a month. I'm not expecting that pace to sustain -- as indeed, preventative measures are increasing (some formally by government and businesses, some measures more voluntarily by people). But we are indeed in very dangerous territory.
 
L

legwand77

Well-Known Member
havoc315 said:
But discharges are not keeping up with hospitalizations. The number of hospitalized patients has been trending dangerously upward.

Yes, there are plenty of hospital beds left *in the state.* But there are many hospitals that are already at or near capacity.

Florida didn't release *currently hospitalized* data until July 10th. So here are the numbers of currently hospitalized with Covid (taking into account new admissions and discharges):

July 10: 6,974
July 11: 7,186
July 12: 7,542
July 13: 8,051
July 14: 8,354
July 15: pending

So as we can see --- It's increasing very quickly, with admissions far outpacing discharges.
A 20% increase in LESS than a week.

If that pace were to be sustained, the entire hospital capacity for the state would be gone in a month. I'm not expecting that pace to sustain -- as indeed, preventative measures are increasing (some formally by government and businesses, some measures more voluntarily by people). But we are indeed in very dangerous territory.
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Yes and hospitals have a plan for that and the city and state does as well.
 

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