Do you think that Disney world will reclose its gates due to the rising number of COVID cases in Florida and around the country?

[DisneyDebRob]

On the Windermere thing, you will get some extreme, unintelligent reactions when you impose the extreme measures that were done back in April. I've always said that if, at the very beginning, all businesses were allowed to operate with distancing and reduced capacity then you wouldn't have this type of backlash. Face coverings would have been widely accepted as a follow on when the CDC recommended them if they were presented as a way to not have to take draconian measures.

On the question of this thread, there is no reason for WDW to close back down unless there is evidence of significant spread happening on the property despite the procedures and protections in place. It doesn't matter if there are 5 million cases per day in Florida (although that would lead to pretty quick herd immunity), as long as the measures taken at WDW are effective there is no reason to shut down.

I'm sure some people will get infected on property but the key is that it isn't a major source of spread. Calls to close down because of Florida's case count (which is largely a Southeast Florida problem over 200 miles from WDW), are really just coming from the attitude of "nobody should be having any fun while people are dying."

Did I just see the new goal posts? 5 million a day? Doesn’t matter? Just checking because everyday it’s something new.

 

[havoc315]

Would love to prevent other diseases, would love to prevent those too, not an either or.

I have no idea what you're trying to say. Heart attacks and cancer are not prevented by wearing a mask or by social distancing.

 

[legwand77]

Lots of different places have made lots of different mistakes at different times.
New York, for example, made some horrible mistakes early, because they were canary in the coal mine. They were the first to experience major community spread... and they weren't even aware that the virus was in the USA until there were already thousands of cases in New York.

But from the time frame of mid-April to today, it's hard to name any place that really did a worse job than Florida. (Though some were just as bad).

For example, since mid April, New York daily cases have dropped about 90% -- a 90% drop WHILE a massive increase in testing
Florida, since mid April -- approximately a 1000% increase in daily cases.

Like I said too early to tell, and your example is just picking an arbitrary date.

 

[DisneyCane]

Lots of different places have made lots of different mistakes at different times.
New York, for example, made some horrible mistakes early, because they were canary in the coal mine. They were the first to experience major community spread... and they weren't even aware that the virus was in the USA until there were already thousands of cases in New York.

But from the time frame of mid-April to today, it's hard to name any place that really did a worse job than Florida. (Though some were just as bad).

For example, since mid April, New York daily cases have dropped about 90% -- a 90% drop WHILE a massive increase in testing
Florida, since mid April -- approximately a 1000% increase in daily cases.

Until proven otherwise, my suspicion continues to be that the sheer number of cases NY had during the peak is the reason the cases are staying low now as a huge number of people are removed from being potential carriers and spreaders. Same with the European countries that had bad outbreaks.

My logic comes partially from looking at NY and CA. Both had extreme lockdowns. NY is low and steady on reopening but CA is spiking. Difference is that CA had far fewer cases back in March/April.

I will not be surprised at all if, after this spike in Florida, the cases return to a "low and steady" state by mid August.

 

[DisneyCane]

Did I just see the new goal posts? 5 million a day? Doesn’t matter? Just checking because everyday it’s something new.

I was making an extreme exaggeration with respect to my point about WDW.

 

[legwand77]

And heeere we go

A week ago "deaths aren't spiking, Florida, Disney World is fine"

Now: "ok deaths are spiking...BUT PEOPLE DIE EVERY DAY"

I think you've officially ran out of goalposts to move

Deaths are not spiking, they have risen but not spiking. I have been saying for the past few weeks deaths will be going up a bit, especially with the backlog of deaths being added some days. It is all relative.

 

[legwand77]

I have no idea what you're trying to say. Heart attacks and cancer are not prevented by wearing a mask or by social distancing.

Pneumonia, flu and many other diseases are, and there are many other things that could be mandated to prevented or improve ones chances of getting cancer and/or heart attacks taht have better science to show improvement.

 

[havoc315]

Until proven otherwise, my suspicion continues to be that the sheer number of cases NY had during the peak is the reason the cases are staying low now as a huge number of people are removed from being potential carriers and spreaders. Same with the European countries that had bad outbreaks.

My logic comes partially from looking at NY and CA. Both had extreme lockdowns. NY is low and steady on reopening but CA is spiking. Difference is that CA had far fewer cases back in March/April.

I will not be surprised at all if, after this spike in Florida, the cases return to a "low and steady" state by mid August.

The science and stats suggest that the large prior spread *contributes* to the significance of the decline and current case counts. But it is likely only a minor contributor.... Seroprevalence is still under 20% in New York. So the vast majority of New Yorkers have never been exposed.

 

[Disstevefan1]

Deaths are not spiking, they have risen but not spiking. I have been saying for the past few weeks deaths will be going up a bit, especially with the backlog of deaths being added some days. It is all relative.

It's tricky to determine if a death is caused by COVID sometimes. I know in some Florida hospitals, they are calling a person COVID positive if they exhibit COVID like symptoms without testing to play it safe.

As for deaths "caused by COVID" I suspect there is some guess work also. An unhealthy person could have one foot in the grave and the other on a banana peel not related to COVID, and was maybe called COVID positive by symptoms and not tests.

When it doubt, call it a death by COVID to play it safe.

 

[legwand77]

It's tricky to determine if a death is caused by COVID sometimes. I know in some Florida hospitals, they are calling a person COVID positive if they exhibit COVID like symptoms without testing to play it safe.

As for deaths "caused by COVID" I suspect there is some guess work also. An unhealthy person could have one foot in the grave and the other on a banana peel not related to COVID, and was maybe called COVID positive by symptoms and not tests.

When it doubt, call it a death by COVID to play it safe.

Yes, I agree best to play it safe

 

[havoc315]

Pneumonia, flu and many other diseases are, and there are many other things that could be mandated to prevented or improve ones chances of getting cancer and/or heart attacks taht have better science to show improvement.

But we have vaccines for the flu... which make it far far less contagious and far far less dangerous.
"Pneumonia" isn't spread by a single infectious source. In fact, you can develop forms of pneumonia entirely without any source of viral or bacterial infection. (known as aspiration pneumonia). Flu causes death most often by causing pneumonia.

For that reason -- Flu and pneumonia deaths are often combined statistically. The US has 50,000-60,000 pneumonia/flu deaths per year.
The US has already had over 130,000 Covid deaths in 6 months.

We do lots of things to reduce the chances of cancer and heart attack: We have lots of limitations on smoking. We have limitations on radiation exposures. We develop medications for treatment.

So the logic of "lots of people die from other causes" simply holds no water.

But I find people get lost in statistics, which creates emotional distance. The deaths aren't "real" if they are just numbers.

So look at your family -- pick 2 family members over 65, and 1 family member between 40-65 (among all your uncles, aunts, cousins, parents): Kill all 3 of those people off. Now, pick 2 more people in your family between the ages of 30 and 65, give them a permanent fatigue syndrome and lung damage, reducing their life expectancy by 10 years.
And let's assume you're not immune either, so go ahead and give yourself a month totally limited in bed and sick, with the addition of 2 years of shortness of breath, 2 years of "temporary" but significant lung damage.

So if it's a choice: The scenario I just mentioned but non-essential businesses keep operating mostly normally...
OR... close non-essential businesses for 4 weeks-- but those harms don't befall you and your family members..

Now which do you pick?

Or will you say, "we shouldn't take any more preventative measures.. I don't care if several of my relatives get sick and die"

 

[havoc315]

Current projections by IHME are, by November 1st (less than a whole year), the US will have 170,000 and 300,000 deaths.

To a great deal, the results are within our control. Loosen up and make mistakes... get to 300,000 (or even higher). Everyone gets serious about social distancing and masks, maybe much closer to 170,000.

We are already at 130,000 deaths.

So how many more deaths do we want in the next 3 1/2 months? Another 40,000 or another 170,000?
(Really, the numbers can go much much higher if we really screw up. The high number assumes slight easing of restrictions, the low number assumed universal masking).

 

[legwand77]

You are good with numbers, but your "family" hypothetical you have to see is very very far off from reality of the numbers to the point of absurd.

 

[havoc315]

It's tricky to determine if a death is caused by COVID sometimes. I know in some Florida hospitals, they are calling a person COVID positive if they exhibit COVID like symptoms without testing to play it safe.

As for deaths "caused by COVID" I suspect there is some guess work also. An unhealthy person could have one foot in the grave and the other on a banana peel not related to COVID, and was maybe called COVID positive by symptoms and not tests.

When it doubt, call it a death by COVID to play it safe.

That's not exactly how they are doing it. For hospitalizations, they are only listing it as a Covid hospitalization if that's the PRIMARY diagnosis. They don't list it as a Covid hospitalization, for example, if someone is hospitalized for a car accident and they incidentally test positive for Covid. (though Covid infection controls are of course activated).

Now, for ALL diseases/conditions: Diagnosis doesn't depend on a single lab test. Diagnosis a clinical finding. That's true for everything. A physician forms a diagnosis by looking at all the evidence.
So there is a major backlog on Covid testing, up to a week or longer in some places.
But Covid has a very unique effect on lung tissue-- a ground glass effect. Now with experience, a radiologist can look at an x-ray and diagnose Covid probably better than the Covid PCR tests.

So if a patient comes in to the ER with shortness of breath, fever, loss of taste... if they say they had contact with another Covid patient, and their chest X-ray shows the ground glass signature -- Any good physician would diagnose the patient as having Covid. Even while they wait for test results... even if the test is negative. The overall evidence would be so suggestive of Covid, it would be presumed that the test was a false negative. (though a re-test would be done a few days later)

That's how medicine works.

 

[legwand77]

Seaworld bringing back fireworks. Disney most likely will too judging from the capacity in the parks, they could easliy do it and maintain social distancing.

Ignite 360 Summer Fireworks | SeaWorld Orlando

A spectacular ending to your evening with Ignite 360 fireworks. Enjoy this nightly fireworks and fountain spectacular that brings the brilliant colors of the sea to the skies above the park

seaworld.com

 

[Parker in NYC]

Did I just see the new goal posts? 5 million a day? Doesn’t matter? Just checking because everyday it’s something new.

It's survival of the fittest! Herd mentality for the strongest! That's what nature is all about. And getting a virtual queue ressie to Rise of the Resistance.

 

[DisneyCane]

The science and stats suggest that the large prior spread *contributes* to the significance of the decline and current case counts. But it is likely only a minor contributor.... Seroprevalence is still under 20% in New York. So the vast majority of New Yorkers have never been exposed.

Agree but that's still almost 1 in 5 people that get in the way of transmission and further spread. Not near the level for herd immunity but my sense is that it helps a lot.

 

[havoc315]

Agree but that's still almost 1 in 5 people that get in the way of transmission and further spread. Not near the level for herd immunity but my sense is that it helps a lot.

My understanding is the foremost epidemiologists can't yet say the degree of the effect. They do agree is contributes, they don't know how much it contributes.

Of course, to reach "a lot" -- that would mean 20% of Florida's population infected, with an overall case fatality rate of about 0.6% based on the best evidence I've seen...
So if you're right.... That's about 25,000 deaths (about 15,000 in addition to the current deaths)... as things come down due to this "mini herd" immunity.

That's quite a steep price to pay. On a national level, it would equate to 400,000 deaths -- which is actually within the realm of possibility by the end of the year. (though likely only if we really drop all mitigation efforts).

 

[Sparksfly]

What I’m saying is, some people see the COVID deaths but not the deaths caused by the shutdown, which are many more.

If this is true, then it would lend more to the fact/argument people need to follow the right measures so we can open SAFELY again.

 

[rle4lunch]

FOX 35 INVESTIGATES: Florida Department of Health says some labs have not reported negative COVID-19 results

The Florida Department of Health released its daily coronavirus testing report showing a statewide positivity rate of 11 percent, but FOX 35 News investigated and quickly noticed some shocking positivity rates.

www.fox35orlando.com