Do you think that Disney world will reclose its gates due to the rising number of COVID cases in Florida and around the country?

xdan0920

Think for yourselfer
Just so everyone is aware, this is another person who is part of the Stanford group that told us in March that "everyone has already had it, it's not very dangerous and this will all be over soon,". The previous "spokesperson" for the "we don't have to do anything to make this go away" bunch is John Ioannidis. But it looks like he stuck his head out a few too many times and was so completely wrong that he blew up his credibility. So the team apparently has subbed him out, hoping that people would be wooed by "Nobel prize winner, and Stanford professor" For the record, his Nobel is for Chemistry and he is a Biology professor. He's not an epidemiologist, or a virologist or an infectious disease expert.

At least the prediction is only 4 weeks, so in 3-6 months we will know one way or another if he's right or not. There will be another decline, for sure, and these people will claim all sorts of victories, before we head into Round 3. Google his name, see if his March & May predictions were right (he is credited for one: China's final numbers - but who actually believes China's numbers? I do concede he might have figured out China's algorithm for reporting, however.)
Definitely listen to HopeMax instead of Levitt. Makes sense.
 

xdan0920

Think for yourselfer
I really don’t understand how someone who is so particular about the language and charts that get posted in this forum takes their infectious disease advice from a Biophysicist. I really don’t.
I don’t understand how you hold his March predictions against him, but still support a lockdown that was predicated on a universally derided model. If his March predictions count against him, even though he was off by orders of magnitude less then the hysterical types, why don’t you take the same stance with the Imperial College, or Fauci, or IHME?
 

havoc315

Well-Known Member
I don’t understand how you hold his March predictions against him, but still support a lockdown that was predicated on a universally derided model. If his March predictions count against him, even though he was off by orders of magnitude less then the hysterical types, why don’t you take the same stance with the Imperial College, or Fauci, or IHME?

Nobody has been 100% accurate to any precise numbers. Because true experts and scientists acknowledge uncertainty and make adjustments.
People who speak with any certainty are really the ones who are clueless.

But what’s really interesting — there has been a political movement to discredit Fauci, IHME, etc. Misrepresenting their past and present statements, forecasts, etc.

There was a concern among some ... that our mitigation efforts would have success, but because of lag times, there would be foolish people who would take that success and use it to proclaim we never needed mitigation.

Fact is, so far, Fauci, IHME, etc ... have been proven mostly correct and credible.
 

Polkadotdress

Well-Known Member
Meanwhile, down here in FL, we carry on valiantly...Halsey Beshears, the head of Florida's business regulation department, said in a tweet that he is setting up meetings throughout the state with breweries and bars to discuss how to reopen.

"Next week starting Friday, I’m going to set meetings throughout Florida with breweries and bars to discuss ideas on how to reopen. We will come up with a Safe, Smart and Step-by-step plan based on input, science and relative facts on how to reopen as soon as possible."

— HalseyBeshears (@HalseyBeshears) July 25, 2020

I just can't anymore...Up is down, black is white...and everything is fine.
 

hopemax

Well-Known Member
I don’t understand how you hold his March predictions against him, but still support a lockdown that was predicated on a universally derided model. If his March predictions count against him, even though he was off by orders of magnitude less then the hysterical types, why don’t you take the same stance with the Imperial College, or Fauci, or IHME?
I am not holding his predictions against him. I am not following his predictions because his background is not where I am looking for recommendations and solutions to navigate this situation. I expect people to be wrong with dealing with a novel virus. Inaccuracy is not a deal breaker for me, if the errors are good faith errors that happen regularly in the science world.

But I continue to wonder why people who appear hyper-sensitive to inaccuracies like the ones you mentioned, would look toward the people who have been even more wrong and not good faith wrong for answers.
 

DisneyDebRob

Well-Known Member
Nobody has been 100% accurate to any precise numbers. Because true experts and scientists acknowledge uncertainty and make adjustments.
People who speak with any certainty are really the ones who are clueless.

But what’s really interesting — there has been a political movement to discredit Fauci, IHME, etc. Misrepresenting their past and present statements, forecasts, etc.

There was a concern among some ... that our mitigation efforts would have success, but because of lag times, there would be foolish people who would take that success and use it to proclaim we never needed mitigation.

Fact is, so far, Fauci, IHME, etc ... have been proven mostly correct and credible.
Have you read about the death threats against Fauci and his family? Our country, and the huge divide in it has gotten to the point where one of the most respected man in health over the last 30-40 years now has to have assigned guards to him. Disgrace.
 

legwand77

Well-Known Member
Nothing to see here. Everything is allllll goooodd


Got to give CNN credit reporting week old news as breaking today. Brilliant. Numbers were higher last week

Notice they don't mention Covid hospitalization have dropped 5.5% in 5 days. Plus their hospitalization capacity numbers have been the same since June. Don't mention that. Lazy "journalism" at best, click bait fear mongering at worst.
 
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Jrb1979

Well-Known Member
Got to give CNN credit reporting week old news as breaking today. Brilliant. Numbers were higher last week

Notice they don't mention Covid hospitalization have dropped 5.5% in 5 days. Plus their hospitalization capacity numbers have been the same since June. Don't mention that. Lazy "journalism" at best, click bait fear mongering at worst.
It may be going down but it's still too high. Measures need to be taken instead of just waiting it out. Make masks mandatory like they are where I live now. Enforce social distancing by passing laws to fine people that don't. That to works here and our numbers are much lower then your so called good numbers. Averaging 150 new cases a day with 0.9% positive. When it's that low we can to contact tracing and keep spikes from getting out of control. I'm sorry to tell you going to gym isn't the answer. Putting in measures will stop a few deaths and many from getting sick. Letting it run its course isn't the answer.
 

Phil12

Well-Known Member
without context sure it could appear that way, of that 12000 positive number , only 600 were in Orlando
Doesn't matter where it is. The entire state has increases in infections, hospitalizations and deaths. I do not live in a so called "hot spot" yet the numbers have steadily gone up in my community since the cases first started in my area back in March.

During that same time period, the local paper has gone from having an obituary column to having multiple obituary pages. More people are rapidly dying in my community than ever before.

I have close friends that live in various other sections of the state including the hot spots and I have received similar reports from them. This virus is spreading rapidly in the state.

This is not a local issue. As people travel the risk for infection and spread of the virus increases. By the time testing identifies someone as being infected at least a week has passed and we won't learn of the new infections for at least another week. The virus is way ahead of our testing and we can't keep up with it.

Unfortunately the state has treated this as a local issue and allowed counties and cities to create a patchwork of remedial measures. This has not worked. It a global pandemic and requires a global solution. But that is not going to happen. A national solution would be helpful but we know that will not occur either.

Therefore, due to the fact that proper public health contagious disease policies have not been implemented, the virus will continue with only limited abatement until such time as a safe and effective vaccine becomes available. And that may never happen.

In the early stage of the pandemic, we had the opportunity to contain the disease but the strict public health laws and policies that were needed were not implemented. So now we have to play the long game of mitigation, and that could take several years.

Right now I have noticed that most major retail outlets (Walmart, Target, etc.) have started mandatory mask programs along with social distancing. Now we have a chance in Florida of lowering the spread. But the spread will be complicated by the huge influx of out of state tourists who will not only contribute to local community spread but will also take the disease back to their home base.

So, we're stuck with this mess. But there might be a ray of hope. A vaccine. However, there are a lot of anti-vaxers out there. Plus how many people are going to be willing to take a vaccine that has been rushed into production? My advice is to get a good supply of high quality surgical masks and continue to practice social distancing and hand washing.
 

SoFloMagic

Well-Known Member
Alas, there is a covid test that we can run, some instant, much better than a metal detector. We can test for symptoms, temp check (closer to a metal detector), wear masks. There is nothing we can do to 100% prevent terrorism, maybe report unclaimed bags etc. but nothing as "effective" as a mask. The analogy falls apart rather quickly. plus soon we might have a vaccine , show me the vaccine for terrorism.

Also bemoaning attendants losing jobs and then in same breath saying shut down everything. Puzzling.
I know I'm two days behind, but this is why we're in trouble.
Can you really not see that the airlines are essentially closed already? And that actually closing them for a bit til a 500 case day sounds bad may allow them to actually open up with more than 20% traffic?
Closure will let the economy open.
 

marni1971

Park History nut
Premium Member
Now we have a chance in Florida of lowering the spread. But the spread will be complicated by the huge influx of out of state tourists who will not only contribute to local community spread but will also take the disease back to their home base.
This. Someone just needs the balls now to do the right thing. Short term pain, long term gain.
 

The Mom

Moderator
Premium Member
I'm not going to go back and look for the specific posts, but someone had commented on the increased number of obituaries in their local papers.

I checked out today's obituaries, and yes, there are 2 - 3 pages. There are always more obituaries printed on Saturday and Sunday, because many people only get weekend editions, and they are more likely to take the time to read the whole paper on the weekend. We are also enetering a time where the old-fashioned wake for 2 days and bury on the 3rd custom is less popular. People were having more private, family only burials/cremations followed by a Memorial Service at a later date even before Covid hit. That's what I did when my parents died, and I had their obituaries in the 2 Sundays preceeding their memorial service - not in the daily paper.

So today's Sunday paper had more obituaries than usual - but only a handful of deaths were from the past week. There is a slight increase in the total number of deaths. Most were for people who had died anywhere from a month ago to over a week ago. There is no rush to announce a death if no one can attend a funeral, but people still wanted to let the public know that someone had passed.

So the trend has been to wait until the day when as many people as possible will read an obituary, which has been accelerated by the pandemic, as people who would have had a funeral/memorial service closer to the death no longer can do so. Most of them have stated that some sort of gathering will happen sometime "when conditions allow."
 

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