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Do you think that Disney world will reclose its gates due to the rising number of COVID cases in Florida and around the country?

DisneyDebRob

Well-Known Member
Sure people have cancelled, nothing new about that , but there are others going and booking last minute trips as they are seeing low crowds and how safe the parks actually are.
Nothing new about people booking last minute trips to enjoy a empty park. My point was that in PA where she is a travel agent, the people at least she is booking from PA and NJ are having second thoughts. I don’t blame them either. Families that are worried, that’s up to how they feel about things for the safety of their own.
 

WDWTrojan

Well-Known Member


How are his predictions about the US working out so far? From March:

"Stanford University biology professor Michael Levitt, winner of the 2013 Nobel Prize in chemistry, said his models do not support predictions the coronavirus will stick around for months or years and cause millions of deaths... He says the data do not support such an extreme scenario. Levitt said he can see a better outcome in the U.S. than what has taken place in China, Italy or Iran, especially with social distancing measures in place. He said social-distancing mandates are critical in cutting the number of coronavirus cases."

Considering we blew past China, Iran and other countries death tolls months ago and the pandemic is still raging, seems like he should stop making predictions.

 

xdan0920

Think for yourselfer
How are his predictions about the US working out so far? From March:

"Stanford University biology professor Michael Levitt, winner of the 2013 Nobel Prize in chemistry, said his models do not support predictions the coronavirus will stick around for months or years and cause millions of deaths... He says the data do not support such an extreme scenario. Levitt said he can see a better outcome in the U.S. than what has taken place in China, Italy or Iran, especially with social distancing measures in place. He said social-distancing mandates are critical in cutting the number of coronavirus cases."

Considering we blew past China, Iran and other countries death tolls months ago and the pandemic is still raging, seems like he should stop making predictions.

😂

China. lol
Iran. lol
Italy is ahead of us in deaths per million.

Pretty sure he couldn’t have predicted what the northeast corridor would do to their senior care centers.
 

hopemax

Well-Known Member

Just so everyone is aware, this is another person who is part of the Stanford group that told us in March that "everyone has already had it, it's not very dangerous and this will all be over soon,". The previous "spokesperson" for the "we don't have to do anything to make this go away" bunch is John Ioannidis. But it looks like he stuck his head out a few too many times and was so completely wrong that he blew up his credibility. So the team apparently has subbed him out, hoping that people would be wooed by "Nobel prize winner, and Stanford professor" For the record, his Nobel is for Chemistry and he is a Biology professor. He's not an epidemiologist, or a virologist or an infectious disease expert.

At least the prediction is only 4 weeks, so in 3-6 months we will know one way or another if he's right or not. There will be another decline, for sure, and these people will claim all sorts of victories, before we head into Round 3. Google his name, see if his March & May predictions were right (he is credited for one: China's final numbers - but who actually believes China's numbers? I do concede he might have figured out China's algorithm for reporting, however.)
 

xdan0920

Think for yourselfer
Just so everyone is aware, this is another person who is part of the Stanford group that told us in March that "everyone has already had it, it's not very dangerous and this will all be over soon,". The previous "spokesperson" for the "we don't have to do anything to make this go away" bunch is John Ioannidis. But it looks like he stuck his head out a few too many times and was so completely wrong that he blew up his credibility. So the team apparently has subbed him out, hoping that people would be wooed by "Nobel prize winner, and Stanford professor" For the record, his Nobel is for Chemistry and he is a Biology professor. He's not an epidemiologist, or a virologist or an infectious disease expert.

At least the prediction is only 4 weeks, so in 3-6 months we will know one way or another if he's right or not. There will be another decline, for sure, and these people will claim all sorts of victories, before we head into Round 3. Google his name, see if his March & May predictions were right (he is credited for one: China's final numbers - but who actually believes China's numbers? I do concede he might have figured out China's algorithm for reporting, however.)
Definitely listen to HopeMax instead of Levitt. Makes sense.
 

xdan0920

Think for yourselfer
I really don’t understand how someone who is so particular about the language and charts that get posted in this forum takes their infectious disease advice from a Biophysicist. I really don’t.
I don’t understand how you hold his March predictions against him, but still support a lockdown that was predicated on a universally derided model. If his March predictions count against him, even though he was off by orders of magnitude less then the hysterical types, why don’t you take the same stance with the Imperial College, or Fauci, or IHME?
 

havoc315

Well-Known Member
I don’t understand how you hold his March predictions against him, but still support a lockdown that was predicated on a universally derided model. If his March predictions count against him, even though he was off by orders of magnitude less then the hysterical types, why don’t you take the same stance with the Imperial College, or Fauci, or IHME?

Nobody has been 100% accurate to any precise numbers. Because true experts and scientists acknowledge uncertainty and make adjustments.
People who speak with any certainty are really the ones who are clueless.

But what’s really interesting — there has been a political movement to discredit Fauci, IHME, etc. Misrepresenting their past and present statements, forecasts, etc.

There was a concern among some ... that our mitigation efforts would have success, but because of lag times, there would be foolish people who would take that success and use it to proclaim we never needed mitigation.

Fact is, so far, Fauci, IHME, etc ... have been proven mostly correct and credible.
 

Polkadotdress

Well-Known Member
Meanwhile, down here in FL, we carry on valiantly...Halsey Beshears, the head of Florida's business regulation department, said in a tweet that he is setting up meetings throughout the state with breweries and bars to discuss how to reopen.

"Next week starting Friday, I’m going to set meetings throughout Florida with breweries and bars to discuss ideas on how to reopen. We will come up with a Safe, Smart and Step-by-step plan based on input, science and relative facts on how to reopen as soon as possible."

— HalseyBeshears (@HalseyBeshears) July 25, 2020

I just can't anymore...Up is down, black is white...and everything is fine.
 

hopemax

Well-Known Member
I don’t understand how you hold his March predictions against him, but still support a lockdown that was predicated on a universally derided model. If his March predictions count against him, even though he was off by orders of magnitude less then the hysterical types, why don’t you take the same stance with the Imperial College, or Fauci, or IHME?
I am not holding his predictions against him. I am not following his predictions because his background is not where I am looking for recommendations and solutions to navigate this situation. I expect people to be wrong with dealing with a novel virus. Inaccuracy is not a deal breaker for me, if the errors are good faith errors that happen regularly in the science world.

But I continue to wonder why people who appear hyper-sensitive to inaccuracies like the ones you mentioned, would look toward the people who have been even more wrong and not good faith wrong for answers.
 

DisneyDebRob

Well-Known Member
Nobody has been 100% accurate to any precise numbers. Because true experts and scientists acknowledge uncertainty and make adjustments.
People who speak with any certainty are really the ones who are clueless.

But what’s really interesting — there has been a political movement to discredit Fauci, IHME, etc. Misrepresenting their past and present statements, forecasts, etc.

There was a concern among some ... that our mitigation efforts would have success, but because of lag times, there would be foolish people who would take that success and use it to proclaim we never needed mitigation.

Fact is, so far, Fauci, IHME, etc ... have been proven mostly correct and credible.
Have you read about the death threats against Fauci and his family? Our country, and the huge divide in it has gotten to the point where one of the most respected man in health over the last 30-40 years now has to have assigned guards to him. Disgrace.
 

legwand77

Well-Known Member
Nothing to see here. Everything is allllll goooodd


Got to give CNN credit reporting week old news as breaking today. Brilliant. Numbers were higher last week

Notice they don't mention Covid hospitalization have dropped 5.5% in 5 days. Plus their hospitalization capacity numbers have been the same since June. Don't mention that. Lazy "journalism" at best, click bait fear mongering at worst.
 
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Jrb1979

Well-Known Member
Got to give CNN credit reporting week old news as breaking today. Brilliant. Numbers were higher last week

Notice they don't mention Covid hospitalization have dropped 5.5% in 5 days. Plus their hospitalization capacity numbers have been the same since June. Don't mention that. Lazy "journalism" at best, click bait fear mongering at worst.
It may be going down but it's still too high. Measures need to be taken instead of just waiting it out. Make masks mandatory like they are where I live now. Enforce social distancing by passing laws to fine people that don't. That to works here and our numbers are much lower then your so called good numbers. Averaging 150 new cases a day with 0.9% positive. When it's that low we can to contact tracing and keep spikes from getting out of control. I'm sorry to tell you going to gym isn't the answer. Putting in measures will stop a few deaths and many from getting sick. Letting it run its course isn't the answer.
 

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