Do you think that Disney world will reclose its gates due to the rising number of COVID cases in Florida and around the country?

DisneyCane

Well-Known Member
Universal throwing in the towel on HHN is the strongest message in months that the situation in Central Florida is not good. It is an extreme measure on their part and a huge part of their revenue and identity. It was not made lightly.

In some ways I would have been less surprised if they closed the parks during the day and threw every resource they had at HHN.

When was the first HHN supposed to be? I don't think they would send that message based on the current situation for something that doesn't occur until many weeks from now.

I think it is a message that their crowd levels have not been very good since WDW reopened and they don't think they can sell enough tickets to HHN to make it profitable.

The haunted houses would have to have capacity limits since they are enclosed indoor spaces. Based on the way the fog hangs around, the air is not exactly changed out frequently.
 

Jedijax719

Well-Known Member
What people need to keep in mind is that while 2% of a given population (such as Dade county) may be infected in real time, that infection rate will become closer to 10% in a few months. Of course many will have recovered. However, if there are 3000 cases per day for the next few months in Dade county, then in 3 months, over 13% will have been infected. A 2% fatality rate is over 7000 fatalities.
 

DisneyCane

Well-Known Member
Covidtracking has a link to their data, from the state. You can see it yourself. A quick examination shows that your chart is including repeat testing. While when computing positivity rate and reporting cases, the State (and Covidtracking) is only reporting first-time positives. If your chart was actually accurate, that would mean the Florida positivity rate has been 5-10%%%! Which we know isn't true.

Now, I've got no problem with a libertarian political view. I do have a problem when anyone, for political purposes, attempts to twist and distort the data and facts in favor of their political view.

We are a society of rules established for our mutual benefit. I suppose, under your way, we would get rid of laws against drunk driving -- that's an individual choice. If people consider it too risk, they shouldn't drink and drive, they shouldn't get in the car with drunk drivers, and they probably should avoid roads with drunk drivers. We shouldn't have speed limits -- individual choice if you want to drive at dangerously high speeds. We shouldn't have laws against smoking in public places -- If you want to avoid second hand smoke, just stay in your own house. Yes, an employee totally dependent on their job, could "elect" to quit and starve to death if going to work is too risky.

Certainly, that libertarian viewpoint is a legitimate philosophy in theory. But that's not the way our system works here. We have a complex system or laws, rules, customs and norms, established for mutual benefit and mutual safety. A system that protects individual liberty, but will prevent people from using their individual liberty to harm others.

So you want to argue for libertarian government... Go for it. But don't lie about the data. Own the argument, "if people want to drive drunk, if people want to expose others to cancer causing second hand smoke, if people want to spread Covid among their friends, family and co-workers, if companies want to endanger their employees..... they should have the right to do so."

In this case I'm not arguing for completely libertarian government. I have always said that businesses should be allowed to operate as long as they can implement social distancing and sanitary guidelines, "essential" or not.

On the data, even if you just use the new case testing, it is much higher than your chart. Take 7/23, there were 12,462 new cases reported and a new case positive rate of 13.31%. That calculates to 93,629 new tests performed on 7/23.
 

legwand77

Well-Known Member
Florida did tick up some in positivity but still in the same range as it has been for two weeks, slows the overall trend down. Deaths reported dropped over 20% from yesterday, plus most of the reported deaths occurred in the past, not yesterday. Good news. Same trend for Orange county slightly up still in the same range it has been for over two weeks. Good news is ED CLI admissions is down to where it was back in May. To early to tell if that will hold.

ETA Florida hospitalizations capacity improved a bit as well.
 
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legwand77

Well-Known Member
What people need to keep in mind is that while 2% of a given population (such as Dade county) may be infected in real time, that infection rate will become closer to 10% in a few months. Of course many will have recovered. However, if there are 3000 cases per day for the next few months in Dade county, then in 3 months, over 13% will have been infected. A 2% fatality rate is over 7000 fatalities.
interesting fatality rate there
 

oceanbreeze77

Well-Known Member
Universal throwing in the towel on HHN is the strongest message in months that the situation in Central Florida is not good. It is an extreme measure on their part and a huge part of their revenue and identity. It was not made lightly.

In some ways I would have been less surprised if they closed the parks during the day and threw every resource they had at HHN.
Christmas season will have the same fate.....if the parks are even still open at that point.
 

Disstevefan1

Well-Known Member
Universal throwing in the towel on HHN is the strongest message in months that the situation in Central Florida is not good. It is an extreme measure on their part and a huge part of their revenue and identity. It was not made lightly.

In some ways I would have been less surprised if they closed the parks during the day and threw every resource they had at HHN.

The only way Uni could have pulled it off would have been to GREATLY REDUCE the tickets sold to HHN in order to enforce self distancing. From what I have seen from being at past HHNs Uni must spend A TON of money creating HHN, its very high quality.

In order to actually make money while GREATLY REDUCING the tickets sold to HHN in order to enforce self distancing, the ticket prices would have been astronomical.

Frankly it would have been GREAT to attend HHN with greatly reduced crowds IF I could have afforded the tickets.
 

wdwmagic

Administrator
Moderator
Premium Member
I had two kids killed by a truck walking to school by my house. There was also reports a few years ago that we were having a terrible flu season and kids were at risk. I remember some news stories of a child dying from it. When my kid had flu symptoms I remember rushing her in to the doctor. How many kids died from the flu that year was it 50? My point being society didn’t shut down and we didn’t stop everything in our lives to try and combat it to save one life. These things were happening in our society for years we’ve always accepted death as part of operating. Kids are killed in car wrecks every year yet you never bemoaned 5 deaths and said we need to shut down driving or only allow so many cars on the road. The absolutely obsession to stop one risk amongst thousands of risks at the detriment of everything is mind boggling to me.
I think this is an eye-opener when it comes to comparing COVID-19 to other risks

 

havoc315

Well-Known Member
I had two kids killed by a truck walking to school by my house. There was also reports a few years ago that we were having a terrible flu season and kids were at risk. I remember some news stories of a child dying from it. When my kid had flu symptoms I remember rushing her in to the doctor. How many kids died from the flu that year was it 50? My point being society didn’t shut down and we didn’t stop everything in our lives to try and combat it to save one life. These things were happening in our society for years we’ve always accepted death as part of operating. Kids are killed in car wrecks every year yet you never bemoaned 5 deaths and said we need to shut down driving or only allow so many cars on the road. The absolutely obsession to stop one risk amongst thousands of risks at the detriment of everything is mind boggling to me.

In Florida, the number of school aged children dying from flu per year is way under 50. Over the last 10 years, the number nationwide has ranged between 37 and 187. The news source I saw, indicated that 7 children died from the flu in Florida last season.

I never suggested we should shut down everything. I said we should take precautions to reduce risk. The greater the risk, the more precautions that need to be taken. In areas with low risk of infection, that would include masks, socially distanced classrooms. In areas where there is high transmission, that might mean closures during period of highs transmission, to prevent certain death.

It's a false statement that we "accept death." Nonsense. Why do we have speed limits? Why do we mandate seatbelts? Why do schools require vaccinations? Why do we restrict smoking in public? We take thousands of measures to reduce and minimize risks.

The amount of precautions we put in place, we based on the level of risk, and the preventability by taking those precautions.

Nobody is saying "stop everything to save 1 life!!!!" What reasonable people are saying, "take appropriate measures to save hundreds of thousands of lives!"
 

havoc315

Well-Known Member
In this case I'm not arguing for completely libertarian government. I have always said that businesses should be allowed to operate as long as they can implement social distancing and sanitary guidelines, "essential" or not.

On the data, even if you just use the new case testing, it is much higher than your chart. Take 7/23, there were 12,462 new cases reported and a new case positive rate of 13.31%. That calculates to 93,629 new tests performed on 7/23.

It's not "my chart" -- It's the state of Florida data, that I'm citing. Which you seem to be disputing. In fact -- Covidtracking isn't even posting the data for 7/23 yet. That will get updated tonight.
So take yesterday's report... report on 7/23, or 7/22 numbers:
According to the state release, there were 10,249 new cases.

This is the exact same number reflected by the Covidtracking project.

As to an explanation for why the testing count may *appear* different.. Covidtracking is entirely transparent:

 

Jedijax719

Well-Known Member
In Florida, the number of school aged children dying from flu per year is way under 50. Over the last 10 years, the number nationwide has ranged between 37 and 187. The news source I saw, indicated that 7 children died from the flu in Florida last season.

I never suggested we should shut down everything. I said we should take precautions to reduce risk. The greater the risk, the more precautions that need to be taken. In areas with low risk of infection, that would include masks, socially distanced classrooms. In areas where there is high transmission, that might mean closures during period of highs transmission, to prevent certain death.

It's a false statement that we "accept death." Nonsense. Why do we have speed limits? Why do we mandate seatbelts? Why do schools require vaccinations? Why do we restrict smoking in public? We take thousands of measures to reduce and minimize risks.

The amount of precautions we put in place, we based on the level of risk, and the preventability by taking those precautions.

Nobody is saying "stop everything to save 1 life!!!!" What reasonable people are saying, "take appropriate measures to save hundreds of thousands of lives!"
Agreed. Now, that said, some places should shut down for a period of time but not forever. Car accidents are not contagious and the flu has a vaccine. Saying things like "we don't shut down for car accidents or the flu" is just using a strawman argument.
 

DisneyCane

Well-Known Member
Agreed. Now, that said, some places should shut down for a period of time but not forever. Car accidents are not contagious and the flu has a vaccine. Saying things like "we don't shut down for car accidents or the flu" is just using a strawman argument.
"The flu" doesn't have a vaccine. There are thousands of strains of the influenza virus. Each year's flu shot contains a vaccine for three of them. The three that are in there are picked using an educated guess based on what strains seem most common in Asia. People who get the flu shot can and do still get the flu.

Also, just about all car accident fatalities could be eliminated if cars cost more and society was willing to accept significantly worse gas mileage. Horrific NASCAR crashes at well over 100 MPH are survived all the time so it is technically possible to do. Vehicle design is an accepted trade-off between safety, affordability and fuel economy.
 

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