Do you think that Disney world will reclose its gates due to the rising number of COVID cases in Florida and around the country?

havoc315

Well-Known Member
Let’s summarize.
We are in the middle of a global pandemic.
Hospitals are busy
Hospitals have surge plans that they have used many times in the past probably every year.

No.. many of the surge plans we are currently seeing implemented, we designed within the last couple months, specifically for Covid. I'm not claiming no hospital ever had a surge before. But nothing like we are seeing now. (and if this is what it's like in the summer, the fall could really become critical).

Hospitals are bringing in supplemental staffing. Nothing to see it’s done all the time. The nursing travel industry is huge and lucrative for nurses.
Hospitals are managing capacity

It's true, there is a thriving travel nursing industry. It's false to say "nothing to see" and it's done all the time. Again, we have never in modern history seen anything like this. No -- there isn't a thriving industry of travel intensivists.

No one is being denied care.

Well, that's false. Many areas have cancelled elective procedures altogether. In Florida, we are seeing some such procedures cancelled:


Yes, that's denial of care. Often, those "elective" procedures are critical quality of life surgeries (spinal fusions, etc).

Now, we have a law in this country -- EMTALA -- It requires hospitals to provide emergency care. So yes, hospitals are still in compliance with the law.. they are still obeying EMTALA and providing emergency room treatment to people that walk into the door.
But within the bounds of the law, hospitals are indeed denying care -- Elective procedures are being cancelled for weeks, if not months, on end. That's the very definition of denying care.
 

DisneyCane

Well-Known Member
An interesting data point is the IHME projections:

Their projections were last updated on 7/14.
So based on their projections, they expected Florida would have 5109 dead by today. Instead, the number is 5207.
They projected Florida would average 109 daily deaths by now.. instead the 7 day average was 114 as of yesterday (higher today).

Point being, if you take the IHME projections as of a week ago, Florida is doing slightly worse than those projections, already.

They projected that as of today, Florida would have 5109 deaths but a range of uncertainty between 4996 and 5482 deaths.

So how does that look going forward? IHME projects by November 1st, Florida will have 11,800 deaths if they adopt universal masking and 19,090 deaths with continued easing of restrictions. Total range of uncertainty: 9,100 deaths to 33,700 deaths.

So they are already skewing slightly on the high side. So here is the question... where do we want Florida to be 4 months from now -- With 9,100 deaths or 33,700 deaths? The answer of where in-between Florida falls, largely will depend on what precautions are taken, whether voluntarily or by mandate.
And even the "success" of 9,100 deaths would be a tragic consequence of not moving with more certainty faster.
So no matter what, we have failed. The question is, how big a failure do we want to be.
The county (Miami-Dade) that continues to have the worst outbreak also has had and continues to have the strictest mandatory "precautions" in place. Broward is a close second in outbreak severity and restrictions.
 

DisneyCane

Well-Known Member
Yes, that's denial of care. Often, those "elective" procedures are critical quality of life surgeries (spinal fusions, etc).

Now, we have a law in this country -- EMTALA -- It requires hospitals to provide emergency care. So yes, hospitals are still in compliance with the law.. they are still obeying EMTALA and providing emergency room treatment to people that walk into the door.
But within the bounds of the law, hospitals are indeed denying care -- Elective procedures are being cancelled for weeks, if not months, on end. That's the very definition of denying care.

During the lockdowns the elective procedures were cancelled as well. Does it really matter if people are denied the procedures due to mandated lockdowns or voluntary resource management by the hospitals? The end result is the same.
 

Miss Bella

Well-Known Member
No.. many of the surge plans we are currently seeing implemented, we designed within the last couple months, specifically for Covid. I'm not claiming no hospital ever had a surge before. But nothing like we are seeing now. (and if this is what it's like in the summer, the fall could really become critical).



It's true, there is a thriving travel nursing industry. It's false to say "nothing to see" and it's done all the time. Again, we have never in modern history seen anything like this. No -- there isn't a thriving industry of travel intensivists.



Well, that's false. Many areas have cancelled elective procedures altogether. In Florida, we are seeing some such procedures cancelled:


Yes, that's denial of care. Often, those "elective" procedures are critical quality of life surgeries (spinal fusions, etc).

Now, we have a law in this country -- EMTALA -- It requires hospitals to provide emergency care. So yes, hospitals are still in compliance with the law.. they are still obeying EMTALA and providing emergency room treatment to people that walk into the door.
But within the bounds of the law, hospitals are indeed denying care -- Elective procedures are being cancelled for weeks, if not months, on end. That's the very definition of denying care.
Disney world is not closing.
 

Touchdown

Well-Known Member
During the lockdowns the elective procedures were cancelled as well. Does it really matter if people are denied the procedures due to mandated lockdowns or voluntary resource management by the hospitals? The end result is the same.

Stopping elective procedures during the lockdown in places without a surge was a mistake, one made because we didn’t have adequate testing or PPE, but has been a detriment to many people. If a lockdown were to occur again now, elective procedures Would continue provided hospitals weren’t experiencing a surge.
 

legwand77

Well-Known Member
Im excited about the washer and dryer. Less packing. Atlantic is getting busy. I’m keeping an eye on that. I love storms and weather. If I could do things over I’d be a meteorologist.
Noticed the same, Disney has a better chance of closing due to a hurricane than Covid this fall. Notice if a hurricane forms how much the media no longer focuses on Covid numbers.
 

Touchdown

Well-Known Member
Duck Season!

(Psst, wrong studio)

Mickey Mouse!


tenor.gif
 

havoc315

Well-Known Member
During the lockdowns the elective procedures were cancelled as well. Does it really matter if people are denied the procedures due to mandated lockdowns or voluntary resource management by the hospitals? The end result is the same.

You're missing the entire point: Appropriate restrictions in April/May.... would mean no need to cancel elective procedures in July-August.

Had we taken appropriate actions in March-May, we could have 95% of our "normal" back right now. We could have schools opening without worry. We could have elective procedures.

The longer we delay taking appropriate steps, the longer we delay being able to get back to "normal." The more we have to endure sporadic periods of elective procedure cancellations. The more that schools may not be safe to re-open. etc, etc.
 

Miss Bella

Well-Known Member
Noticed the same, Disney has a better chance of closing due to a hurricane than Covid this fall. Notice if a hurricane forms how much the media no longer focuses on Covid numbers.
I said several pages ago that the way 2020 has gone trying to plan vacations I’m fully expecting a hurricane during my trip. I’m ok with that as long as it’s not the day I‘m supposed to fly in.

Im going miss all the drama and teeth gnashing on the cruise boards this hurricane season. 😭 Hurricane Humberto cancelled our Canadian ports on our transatlantic cruise last year. We had to go way south to get around it. Some day I can tell me grandkids I sailed through a hurricane....sort of.
 

havoc315

Well-Known Member
Stopping elective procedures during the lockdown in places without a surge was a mistake, one made because we didn’t have adequate testing or PPE, but has been a detriment to many people. If a lockdown were to occur again now, elective procedures Would continue provided hospitals weren’t experiencing a surge.

The more aggressive we are early, the more we learn, the more we can narrowly "target" lockdowns. Mass untargeted lockdowns are a measure of last resort, because you failed and got to that point.

Simple rules... for EXAMPLE, any county/region with over 20% positivity, should go on a pretty hard core lockdown, except for the truly essential services. Any county with a positivity rate of over 10-20% should be on a "full soft" lockdown of non-essential services. Any county with positivity of over 5%, should be on a restricted basis -- no large gathering, no indoor dining, no themeparks, no in-person schools. Between 1% and 5%... semi-normal with masking and social distancing, but you can start to operate in-person schools, etc.. Under 1%, you can start to relax masking and social distancing somewhat, as long as you're closely monitoring.
 

Touchdown

Well-Known Member
The more aggressive we are early, the more we learn, the more we can narrowly "target" lockdowns. Mass untargeted lockdowns are a measure of last resort, because you failed and got to that point.

Simple rules... for EXAMPLE, any county/region with over 20% positivity, should go on a pretty hard core lockdown, except for the truly essential services. Any county with a positivity rate of over 10-20% should be on a "full soft" lockdown of non-essential services. Any county with positivity of over 5%, should be on a restricted basis -- no large gathering, no indoor dining, no themeparks, no in-person schools. Between 1% and 5%... semi-normal with masking and social distancing, but you can start to operate in-person schools, etc.. Under 1%, you can start to relax masking and social distancing somewhat, as long as you're closely monitoring.

That’s all well and good, except people travel. We can’t stop that, the smaller you cut up the areas, the easier it is to travel. I almost think state wide rules might be too small (and rules should be regionals) I know that unless we did country wide rules there is no way to stop people flocking to more open areas but making those areas bigger would cut down on this issue considerably.
 

hopemax

Well-Known Member
Noticed the same, Disney has a better chance of closing due to a hurricane than Covid this fall. Notice if a hurricane forms how much the media no longer focuses on Covid numbers.
Parks maybe, but resorts, not likely. That was already one of the concerns Florida had: if hotels are closed, where do people evacuate to? The pressure to keep the resorts open is likely going to stay high.

But can you imagine trying to evacuate ICU COVID patients in the event that a hurricane is on track for hitting Miami or Tampa? Hopefully, hospital backup power systems have not been subject to hospital covid budget cuts. I don't think the media would stop focusing on covid numbers in a hurricane. They'll set up shop outside the largest potentially affected hospitals asking about their evacuation / shelter in place plans. I know there are already concerns about what do with the field hospital at the Miami Beach Convention Center this fall, because is in a flood zone. It won't be covid or hurricane, it will be covid+hurricane. So prepare now (moderators, this means you, it will be awful :) ).
 

havoc315

Well-Known Member
That’s all well and good, except people travel. We can’t stop that, the smaller you cut up the areas, the easier it is to travel. I almost think state wide rules might be too small (and rules should be regionals) I know that unless we did country wide rules there is no way to stop people flocking to more open areas but making those areas bigger would cut down on this issue considerably.

My examples were a bit of oversimplification. For the most part, you need to make rules "regional" -- In some cases, the region might be several counties. For some purposes, the region might be several states.

And travel is one of the things that is already greatly restricted on a voluntary basis but might need more restriction on a mandatory basis. (though it's something you really can't restrict too much without getting into basic liberties.)

Also over-simplifying, I wouldn't base any of this on positivity rate alone. Would also look at hospital capacity, contact tracing capacity, etc.

But the basic point being: You can treat a 3% positivity region differently than you would treat a 7% differently than you would treat a 15% or 25% region.
With the goal of preventing that 3% region from becoming a 7% or 15% or 25% region.
And to do that... we don't need to constantly be in full lockdown. But we need to be smart and err on the side of caution.
 

DisneyCane

Well-Known Member
You're missing the entire point: Appropriate restrictions in April/May.... would mean no need to cancel elective procedures in July-August.

Had we taken appropriate actions in March-May, we could have 95% of our "normal" back right now. We could have schools opening without worry. We could have elective procedures.

The longer we delay taking appropriate steps, the longer we delay being able to get back to "normal." The more we have to endure sporadic periods of elective procedure cancellations. The more that schools may not be safe to re-open. etc, etc.

Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach were restricted through most of May and never removed the mask mandates. Those three counties are the ones with the worst problems now. No appropriate steps are going to stop young adults from having private gatherings. No appropriate steps increase living space or eliminate multi-generational households. All the "appropriate steps" do is hurt the people following the rules.

New York had a major outbreak before they knew about it or took any steps. The measures appear to have worked so well because such a high percentage of the population was already infected before the lockdown. If the percentage of the population in Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach counties that has been infected approaches the level of the NYC metro, whatever is done or not done will magically "work" in Florida also. I'll put money on it.
 

havoc315

Well-Known Member
Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach were restricted through most of May and never removed the mask mandates. Those three counties are the ones with the worst problems now. No appropriate steps are going to stop young adults from having private gatherings. No appropriate steps increase living space or eliminate multi-generational households. All the "appropriate steps" do is hurt the people following the rules.

New York had a major outbreak before they knew about it or took any steps. The measures appear to have worked so well because such a high percentage of the population was already infected before the lockdown. If the percentage of the population in Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach counties that has been infected approaches the level of the NYC metro, whatever is done or not done will magically "work" in Florida also. I'll put money on it.

No, Miami, Broward and Palm Beach never had the sort of lockdown or mask compliance that you had in NY. And critically, they demonstrate the need to do these things on more than a county-by-county basis.

And what we are seeing now... the fastest growth in Florida is actually the other counties:


For example, the case doubling time in Miami-Dade is now 19.3 days, slightly below the state average of 19.9. But Osceola is 14 days.. Monroe County is 12.7 days. Santa Rosa is 13.5 days.
 

legwand77

Well-Known Member
No, Miami, Broward and Palm Beach never had the sort of lockdown or mask compliance that you had in NY. And critically, they demonstrate the need to do these things on more than a county-by-county basis.

And what we are seeing now... the fastest growth in Florida is actually the other counties:


For example, the case doubling time in Miami-Dade is now 19.3 days, slightly below the state average of 19.9. But Osceola is 14 days.. Monroe County is 12.7 days. Santa Rosa is 13.5 days.

Is there any significant difference b/t miami dade county and those counties you listed?
 

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