The science is not clear yet, during certain medical procedures it appears to be able to spread airborne, and there is some evidence to suspect that symptomatic people could potentially be airborne vectors. Unfortunately, direct studies are difficult as they would put people at risk and are thus unethical. We still don’t know the viral load required for infection, and there is also evidence that what your inoculating dose is may affect how severe your disease is.
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Do you think that Disney world will reclose its gates due to the rising number of COVID cases in Florida and around the country?
- Thread starter Logan L
- Start date
The science is not clear yet, during certain medical procedures it appears to be able to spread airborne, and there is some evidence to suspect that symptomatic people could potentially be airborne vectors. Unfortunately, direct studies are difficult as they would put people at risk and are thus unethical. We still don’t know the viral load required for infection, and there is also evidence that what your inoculating dose is may affect how severe your disease is.
Jedijax719
Well-Known Member
I have a REALLY hard time believing the legitimacy of that letter. Sure, these studios have power but not SO much power that they can prevent this from leaking into the mass media. Unless both of these parks are SO in cahoots with the media that any bad press is completely hidden, we would have known if there was a large number of employees who were sick with COVID-19. Guests? That's VERY hard to prove since the guests could have gotten COVID-19 anywhere at any time. But employees? They could have gotten it anywhere and anytime BUT they arrive at the park every day. This would be a scandal that would do MUCH more damage to these parks than simply closing for a few months.
CumulusIsobar
Member
NBCUniversal Media, LLC is an American mass media and entertainment conglomerate owned by Comcast
Population density.
VaderTron
Well-Known Member
On that subject, a friend just had a heart attack the other day. Living in a county next to a major FL city there is a rural hospital. However, everyone here chooses to pass it up and go into the city for superior healthcare. When the ambulance came the family asked for her to be taken to their hospital of choice in the city. They were informed that there were no available beds. They asked for their second pick. Then they were informed that of the 8 hospitals in the city there were NO BEDS AVAILABLE. She had to go to the rural hospital. She was very fortunate in that the heart attack was more mild and she ended up not needing emergency surgery, but that detail was not known when she was being picked up by the ambulance. This is not a place known for it's professionalism and expertise. It doesn't even have a maternity ward. I would be terrified if I was having a heart attack and I was told that hospital was my only option for care.
The takeaway? No beds available for a heart attack victim is not something to tote as a non-issue. How many other people were turned away for needed care that day? I don't want to know.
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Jedijax719
Well-Known Member
Would that be a "yes"? I do know that Universal didn't suffer nearly as much as Disney because they are owned by a cable company that generates most of the revenue. I don't have an exorbitant amount of knowledge on the ins and outs of the media world. But the question is whether they (Disney and Universal) are keeping hush-hush about cases or is there just not enough to connect cases to park visitations? It's different that in schools where you know who is coming and going and if there is a case among students or staff, you KNOW who within the school has been exposed (masks or not).
DisneyDebRob
Well-Known Member
She must have left when I got here.So is negative Nancy.
How could anyone possibly know that they had gotten COVID from Disney?
Piebald
Well-Known Member
Based on people I know in management at UO, lots of sick team members. On reddit, that seems to be echoed further as well. So far Disney does not appear to have it that bad but to be fair UO has been opened for much longer so it could be timing, luck or a big difference in practices. I'm not yet convinced its the latter, so possibly the 2 aforementioned.
DisneyDebRob
Well-Known Member
Hopefully she is doing ok!
Chomama
Well-Known Member
After months of this on social media, the news and real life I -think- people who already struggle with black and white thinking can’t handle the uncertainty of the current situation. The anxiety is overwhelming for everyone and some people are not able to occupy that uncertainty well. It is a coping mechanism and not an intentional callousness At least that’s the best I can come up with. And I say that with empathy for both sides. If someone lives in the black and white they are not ABLE to see that that is what they are doing. It really isn’t malicious but it also isn’t really going to change and the amount of maturity it takes to accept what is happening in our country without becoming emotionally crippled is not as common as one would hope. My thoughts only
Miss Bella
Well-Known Member
It’s interesting how different things are in different states.
Latest numbers still show Florida is trending down in new cases and indicative of moving past the peak. Hitting 10% for the first time in weeks. Following the trend we will see sub 10% numbers this week. This with over 100,000 test reported. Yes, sadly deaths will rise a bit more , due to the lag, but will most likely level off and decline towards the end of the following week as we move past the peak in new cases. This is the same trend that AZ and TX are following as well a week or so ahead of Florida.
Locally Orange County reports 10% as well, which is the standard jump in positive for a Wed, has been the past few weeks, so it is expected and still less than previous Wed. With the trends line going down we will probably see Orange County at or near 5-6% positivityby Monday or Tuesday.
ETA Hospitalizations are still the same staying steady. Yes there are some very busy hospitals in South Florida/Miami.
Locally Orange County reports 10% as well, which is the standard jump in positive for a Wed, has been the past few weeks, so it is expected and still less than previous Wed. With the trends line going down we will probably see Orange County at or near 5-6% positivityby Monday or Tuesday.
ETA Hospitalizations are still the same staying steady. Yes there are some very busy hospitals in South Florida/Miami.
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Miss Bella
Well-Known Member
That sure was a lot of psychobabble.
I'm going to try to reduce getting into back and forth, and just post some general thoughts at a time.
First, why do I keep referring to the hospitalization rate? I think my rationale for using it has been misunderstood. It's not because of concern that hospitals are going to run out of bed space.
The reason I use the hospitalization charts is because they are the most reliable way to track the progress of the virus in different locations. They are a consistent measure of the number of "serious" infections -- serious enough to warrant hospitalization.
Total case counts? Extremely unreliable for comparing different points in time, since we are only identifying a portion of the real cases. We were missing far more cases in April than we are missing now. So while there are far more reported cases now than in April, that doesn't mean there are actually more total cases.
Death counts? Extreme lag. Deaths may not occur until weeks or even months after infection, and may not get reported for weeks or months more. Additionally, most of the evidence suggests deaths are very undercounted. And as some people will tell you, they believe deaths may be overcounted in some cases.
Positivity rate? Really really imprecise, very impacted by the population being tested at any given time. If on Day 1, you test 100 symptomatic people and get 25 infections, that's a 25% positivity rate. If on Day 2, you test another 100 symptomatic people, and get 30 infections, but you add a testing center that tests 100 asymptomatic people and that group only has 4 infections... Then the positivity rate dropped from 25% to 17%.... but the infection is actually getting worse. So high positivity rate with increasing testing is a very bad sign, but it's a very very imprecise tool for judging day to day changes.
But hospitalizations is a pretty consistent measure of how many serious infections are in a location at any given time. If cases are increasing purely due to increased testing, with more minor cases being detected, then hospitalizations will not rise. Unlike deaths, hospitalizations are reported with far less lag. (though still some lag from time of infection to hospitalization). So rising hospitalizations is the most reliable indicator of things getting "worse."
So where do we stand now in Florida?
Florida hit another new high in hospitalizations yesterday. Data is only available since July 10th, but since July 10th, in just 3 weeks, the number of hospitalizations has jumped from 6,974 to 9,520. 37% increase in 3 weeks.
That's bad.
The better news -- the total number of cases appears to be leveling off. If true, we would expect to start seeing the number of hospitalizations level off soon.
So how does this impact the discussion of whether Disney World should be open?
Let's be clear -- There are lots of behaviors that can bring down the viral spread. Even with theme parks open, enough other mitigation efforts can eventually bring down the viral spread. People voluntarily wearing masks, washing their hands, social distancing, avoiding gatherings -- those things will gradually bring down the numbers, regardless of whether Disney World or restaurants are open.
I expect the "truthers" and "hoaxers" to say, "the numbers are leveled off... see, we didn't need to close theme parks." Or the numbers will slowly drop over the next 30-60 days, and then they will proudly proclaim "success without closing the theme parks."
Such arguments are deeply flawed. Slowly containing the spread while thousands of people die is not a "success" if the spread could have been contained faster, with fewer deaths.
Point is that some painful short/medium term remedial measures will save lives... and will more quickly get us back to normal. More quickly allow Disney World to increase capacity.
Which would be better? A "hard" lockdown for 6 weeks, with very few deaths, followed by 90% normalcy. Or, lots of "soft measures" on an ongoing basis, with lots of deaths, and only 50% normalcy for a whole year?
Anyway...... sometimes I hate being right. Yesterday morning, I said the US would very soon be back to 1,000+ deaths per day. Well, yesterday 1,122 deaths in the US. In Florida, deaths continue to rise significantly -- Couple weeks ago, I said Florida would soon be at 100+ deaths daily... another 139 reported today. I suspect Florida will continue to rise, but I hope it stays under 200 per day.
A hard core lock down would get Florida under control quickly. Instead though, I suspect we will see a long and slow decline.
First, why do I keep referring to the hospitalization rate? I think my rationale for using it has been misunderstood. It's not because of concern that hospitals are going to run out of bed space.
The reason I use the hospitalization charts is because they are the most reliable way to track the progress of the virus in different locations. They are a consistent measure of the number of "serious" infections -- serious enough to warrant hospitalization.
Total case counts? Extremely unreliable for comparing different points in time, since we are only identifying a portion of the real cases. We were missing far more cases in April than we are missing now. So while there are far more reported cases now than in April, that doesn't mean there are actually more total cases.
Death counts? Extreme lag. Deaths may not occur until weeks or even months after infection, and may not get reported for weeks or months more. Additionally, most of the evidence suggests deaths are very undercounted. And as some people will tell you, they believe deaths may be overcounted in some cases.
Positivity rate? Really really imprecise, very impacted by the population being tested at any given time. If on Day 1, you test 100 symptomatic people and get 25 infections, that's a 25% positivity rate. If on Day 2, you test another 100 symptomatic people, and get 30 infections, but you add a testing center that tests 100 asymptomatic people and that group only has 4 infections... Then the positivity rate dropped from 25% to 17%.... but the infection is actually getting worse. So high positivity rate with increasing testing is a very bad sign, but it's a very very imprecise tool for judging day to day changes.
But hospitalizations is a pretty consistent measure of how many serious infections are in a location at any given time. If cases are increasing purely due to increased testing, with more minor cases being detected, then hospitalizations will not rise. Unlike deaths, hospitalizations are reported with far less lag. (though still some lag from time of infection to hospitalization). So rising hospitalizations is the most reliable indicator of things getting "worse."
So where do we stand now in Florida?
Florida hit another new high in hospitalizations yesterday. Data is only available since July 10th, but since July 10th, in just 3 weeks, the number of hospitalizations has jumped from 6,974 to 9,520. 37% increase in 3 weeks.
That's bad.
The better news -- the total number of cases appears to be leveling off. If true, we would expect to start seeing the number of hospitalizations level off soon.
So how does this impact the discussion of whether Disney World should be open?
Let's be clear -- There are lots of behaviors that can bring down the viral spread. Even with theme parks open, enough other mitigation efforts can eventually bring down the viral spread. People voluntarily wearing masks, washing their hands, social distancing, avoiding gatherings -- those things will gradually bring down the numbers, regardless of whether Disney World or restaurants are open.
I expect the "truthers" and "hoaxers" to say, "the numbers are leveled off... see, we didn't need to close theme parks." Or the numbers will slowly drop over the next 30-60 days, and then they will proudly proclaim "success without closing the theme parks."
Such arguments are deeply flawed. Slowly containing the spread while thousands of people die is not a "success" if the spread could have been contained faster, with fewer deaths.
Point is that some painful short/medium term remedial measures will save lives... and will more quickly get us back to normal. More quickly allow Disney World to increase capacity.
Which would be better? A "hard" lockdown for 6 weeks, with very few deaths, followed by 90% normalcy. Or, lots of "soft measures" on an ongoing basis, with lots of deaths, and only 50% normalcy for a whole year?
Anyway...... sometimes I hate being right. Yesterday morning, I said the US would very soon be back to 1,000+ deaths per day. Well, yesterday 1,122 deaths in the US. In Florida, deaths continue to rise significantly -- Couple weeks ago, I said Florida would soon be at 100+ deaths daily... another 139 reported today. I suspect Florida will continue to rise, but I hope it stays under 200 per day.
A hard core lock down would get Florida under control quickly. Instead though, I suspect we will see a long and slow decline.
As to the anonymous letter:
It is not reliable. It could be totally bogus.
At the same time, everything in the letter is believable and could be true. Given the infection counts we are seeing, it would be shocking if lots of WDW employees aren't "out sick."
WDW is fighting with 1 of their unions about whether to provide Coronavirus testing -- WDW does not want to test it's employees.
So I wouldn't necessarily believe the letter. It's "unauthenticated" in legal parlance. But I'd certainly accept that the letter *could* be very true.
It is not reliable. It could be totally bogus.
At the same time, everything in the letter is believable and could be true. Given the infection counts we are seeing, it would be shocking if lots of WDW employees aren't "out sick."
WDW is fighting with 1 of their unions about whether to provide Coronavirus testing -- WDW does not want to test it's employees.
So I wouldn't necessarily believe the letter. It's "unauthenticated" in legal parlance. But I'd certainly accept that the letter *could* be very true.
Miss Bella
Well-Known Member
We already had a hard core lockdown and it didn't work.
VaderTron
Well-Known Member
And central Florida, and North Florida, and Gulf coast Florida, and Pan handle....maybe you should investigate before making sweeping statements. The case of no beds available for a heart attack victim I posted earlier was not in South Florida.
Yes that happened pre covid as well, hospitals go on diversion. Glad your friend is doing well