Do you think that Disney world will reclose its gates due to the rising number of COVID cases in Florida and around the country?

[BellaSweet8384]

This constant back and forth is so exhausting. Its every day..in life, at work, on forums, in the news. Mask, no mask..open, closed..Covid numbers up, or down. UGH.

I am sad that our January Disney trip will probably be pushed back even more but I'm even more distraught over Disney employees being out of work or possibly exposed to the virus. That is tragic..my vacation can take a backseat.

 

[Miss Bella]

Good to see Disney’s Caribbean Beach Resort opens on July 29, hopefully for Disney demand is picking up

This was one of the two-bed options I was given but wanted a gym and indoor corridors. I would like to try a skyliner resort if I ever make it on another Winter trip.

 

[Monorail_Orange]

Yes it is.
No it isn’t.
Yes it is.
No it isn’t.
Yes it is.
No it isn’t.
Yes it is.
No it isn’t.
Yes it is.
No it isn’t.
Yes it is.
No it isn’t.
.
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Ad nauseum
Rinse repeat.

Best summary of this thread in 40 words or less.

 

[legwand77]

You have ignored that 50 hospitals in Florida are at already at 100% ICU capacity (which is already including additional surge capacity)

Workbook: Public

But hey... now you will cherrypick, you will go find hospitals with capacity and you will return to the "nothing to see here" propaganda.

First no matter how much you repeat that, I am saying "nothing to see here", I never have

Yes that number is correct, never have said any different, and has been that way (in the 40-50 range) for the past month, also note a majority of those are smaller units and drug/mental rehab hospitals. Yes some big hospitals are included but in South Florida as expected as I have been saying the are very busy and have been handling the outbreak there.

 

[havoc315]

An interesting data point is the IHME projections:

IHME | COVID-19 Projections

Explore forecasts of COVID-19 cases, deaths, and hospital resource use.

covid19.healthdata.org

Their projections were last updated on 7/14.
So based on their projections, they expected Florida would have 5109 dead by today. Instead, the number is 5207.
They projected Florida would average 109 daily deaths by now.. instead the 7 day average was 114 as of yesterday (higher today).

Point being, if you take the IHME projections as of a week ago, Florida is doing slightly worse than those projections, already.

They projected that as of today, Florida would have 5109 deaths but a range of uncertainty between 4996 and 5482 deaths.

So how does that look going forward? IHME projects by November 1st, Florida will have 11,800 deaths if they adopt universal masking and 19,090 deaths with continued easing of restrictions. Total range of uncertainty: 9,100 deaths to 33,700 deaths.

So they are already skewing slightly on the high side. So here is the question... where do we want Florida to be 4 months from now -- With 9,100 deaths or 33,700 deaths? The answer of where in-between Florida falls, largely will depend on what precautions are taken, whether voluntarily or by mandate.
And even the "success" of 9,100 deaths would be a tragic consequence of not moving with more certainty faster.
So no matter what, we have failed. The question is, how big a failure do we want to be.

 

[Dizneykid]

Good to see Disney’s Caribbean Beach Resort opens on July 29, hopefully for Disney demand is picking up

Were any moderates open for the first weeks?

 

[Miss Bella]

First no matter how much you repeat that, I am saying "nothing to see here", I never have

Yes that number is correct, never have said any different, and has been that way (in the 40-50 range) for the past month, also note a majority of those are smaller units and drug/mental rehab hospitals. Yes some big hospitals are inlcuded but in SOuth FLorida as expeceted as I have been saying the are very busy and have been handling the outbreak there.

Let’s summarize.
We are in the middle of a global pandemic.
Hospitals are busy
Hospitals have surge plans that they have used many times in the past probably every year.
Hospitals are using those surge plans on days when the need too.
Hospitals are bringing in supplemental staffing. Nothing to see it’s done all the time. The nursing travel industry is huge and lucrative for nurses.
Hospitals are managing capacity
No one is being denied care.

For the life me I can’t figure out what his point is.

 

[Miss Bella]

Were any moderates open for the first weeks?

No. There is a schedule of when each resort opens. The Polynesian opens on August 12. It’s tempting to push back a day to stay at the Poly, but I did upgrade to a 1 bedroom at WL Villas.

 

[legwand77]

No. There is a schedule of when each resort opens. The Polynesian opens on August 12. It’s tempting to push back a day to stay at the Poly, but I did upgrade to a 1 bedroom at WL Villas.

I am heading to the Poly once it opens, but those WL Villas are nice.

 

[havoc315]

Let’s summarize.
We are in the middle of a global pandemic.
Hospitals are busy
Hospitals have surge plans that they have used many times in the past probably every year.

No.. many of the surge plans we are currently seeing implemented, we designed within the last couple months, specifically for Covid. I'm not claiming no hospital ever had a surge before. But nothing like we are seeing now. (and if this is what it's like in the summer, the fall could really become critical).

Hospitals are bringing in supplemental staffing. Nothing to see it’s done all the time. The nursing travel industry is huge and lucrative for nurses.
Hospitals are managing capacity

It's true, there is a thriving travel nursing industry. It's false to say "nothing to see" and it's done all the time. Again, we have never in modern history seen anything like this. No -- there isn't a thriving industry of travel intensivists.

No one is being denied care.

Well, that's false. Many areas have cancelled elective procedures altogether. In Florida, we are seeing some such procedures cancelled:

https://www.bizjournals.com/orlando/news/2020/07/15/hca-pauses-elective-surgeries-in-central-florida.html

Yes, that's denial of care. Often, those "elective" procedures are critical quality of life surgeries (spinal fusions, etc).

Now, we have a law in this country -- EMTALA -- It requires hospitals to provide emergency care. So yes, hospitals are still in compliance with the law.. they are still obeying EMTALA and providing emergency room treatment to people that walk into the door.
But within the bounds of the law, hospitals are indeed denying care -- Elective procedures are being cancelled for weeks, if not months, on end. That's the very definition of denying care.

 

[DisneyCane]

An interesting data point is the IHME projections:

IHME | COVID-19 Projections

Explore forecasts of COVID-19 cases, deaths, and hospital resource use.

covid19.healthdata.org

Their projections were last updated on 7/14.
So based on their projections, they expected Florida would have 5109 dead by today. Instead, the number is 5207.
They projected Florida would average 109 daily deaths by now.. instead the 7 day average was 114 as of yesterday (higher today).

Point being, if you take the IHME projections as of a week ago, Florida is doing slightly worse than those projections, already.

They projected that as of today, Florida would have 5109 deaths but a range of uncertainty between 4996 and 5482 deaths.

So how does that look going forward? IHME projects by November 1st, Florida will have 11,800 deaths if they adopt universal masking and 19,090 deaths with continued easing of restrictions. Total range of uncertainty: 9,100 deaths to 33,700 deaths.

So they are already skewing slightly on the high side. So here is the question... where do we want Florida to be 4 months from now -- With 9,100 deaths or 33,700 deaths? The answer of where in-between Florida falls, largely will depend on what precautions are taken, whether voluntarily or by mandate.
And even the "success" of 9,100 deaths would be a tragic consequence of not moving with more certainty faster.
So no matter what, we have failed. The question is, how big a failure do we want to be.

The county (Miami-Dade) that continues to have the worst outbreak also has had and continues to have the strictest mandatory "precautions" in place. Broward is a close second in outbreak severity and restrictions.

 

[DisneyCane]

Yes, that's denial of care. Often, those "elective" procedures are critical quality of life surgeries (spinal fusions, etc).

Now, we have a law in this country -- EMTALA -- It requires hospitals to provide emergency care. So yes, hospitals are still in compliance with the law.. they are still obeying EMTALA and providing emergency room treatment to people that walk into the door.
But within the bounds of the law, hospitals are indeed denying care -- Elective procedures are being cancelled for weeks, if not months, on end. That's the very definition of denying care.

During the lockdowns the elective procedures were cancelled as well. Does it really matter if people are denied the procedures due to mandated lockdowns or voluntary resource management by the hospitals? The end result is the same.

 

[Miss Bella]

No.. many of the surge plans we are currently seeing implemented, we designed within the last couple months, specifically for Covid. I'm not claiming no hospital ever had a surge before. But nothing like we are seeing now. (and if this is what it's like in the summer, the fall could really become critical).



It's true, there is a thriving travel nursing industry. It's false to say "nothing to see" and it's done all the time. Again, we have never in modern history seen anything like this. No -- there isn't a thriving industry of travel intensivists.



Well, that's false. Many areas have cancelled elective procedures altogether. In Florida, we are seeing some such procedures cancelled:

https://www.bizjournals.com/orlando/news/2020/07/15/hca-pauses-elective-surgeries-in-central-florida.html

Yes, that's denial of care. Often, those "elective" procedures are critical quality of life surgeries (spinal fusions, etc).

Now, we have a law in this country -- EMTALA -- It requires hospitals to provide emergency care. So yes, hospitals are still in compliance with the law.. they are still obeying EMTALA and providing emergency room treatment to people that walk into the door.
But within the bounds of the law, hospitals are indeed denying care -- Elective procedures are being cancelled for weeks, if not months, on end. That's the very definition of denying care.

Disney world is not closing.

 

[Touchdown]

During the lockdowns the elective procedures were cancelled as well. Does it really matter if people are denied the procedures due to mandated lockdowns or voluntary resource management by the hospitals? The end result is the same.

Stopping elective procedures during the lockdown in places without a surge was a mistake, one made because we didn’t have adequate testing or PPE, but has been a detriment to many people. If a lockdown were to occur again now, elective procedures Would continue provided hospitals weren’t experiencing a surge.

 

[Miss Bella]

I am heading to the Poly once it opens, but those WL Villas are nice.

Im excited about the washer and dryer. Less packing. Atlantic is getting busy. I’m keeping an eye on that. I love storms and weather. If I could do things over I’d be a meteorologist.

 

[legwand77]

Im excited about the washer and dryer. Less packing. Atlantic is getting busy. I’m keeping an eye on that. I love storms and weather. If I could do things over I’d be a meteorologist.

Noticed the same, Disney has a better chance of closing due to a hurricane than Covid this fall. Notice if a hurricane forms how much the media no longer focuses on Covid numbers.

 

[𝐌𝖆𝖓 𝖎𝖓 𝐖𝖊𝖇]

Yes it is.
No it isn’t.
Yes it is.
No it isn’t.
Yes it is.
No it isn’t.
Yes it is.
No it isn’t.
Yes it is.
No it isn’t.
Yes it is.
No it isn’t.
.
.
.
Ad nauseum
Rinse repeat.

Duck Season!

 

[Touchdown]

Duck Season!

(Psst, wrong studio)

Mickey Mouse!

 

[havoc315]

During the lockdowns the elective procedures were cancelled as well. Does it really matter if people are denied the procedures due to mandated lockdowns or voluntary resource management by the hospitals? The end result is the same.

You're missing the entire point: Appropriate restrictions in April/May.... would mean no need to cancel elective procedures in July-August.

Had we taken appropriate actions in March-May, we could have 95% of our "normal" back right now. We could have schools opening without worry. We could have elective procedures.

The longer we delay taking appropriate steps, the longer we delay being able to get back to "normal." The more we have to endure sporadic periods of elective procedure cancellations. The more that schools may not be safe to re-open. etc, etc.

 

[Miss Bella]

Noticed the same, Disney has a better chance of closing due to a hurricane than Covid this fall. Notice if a hurricane forms how much the media no longer focuses on Covid numbers.

I said several pages ago that the way 2020 has gone trying to plan vacations I’m fully expecting a hurricane during my trip. I’m ok with that as long as it’s not the day I‘m supposed to fly in.

Im going miss all the drama and teeth gnashing on the cruise boards this hurricane season. Hurricane Humberto cancelled our Canadian ports on our transatlantic cruise last year. We had to go way south to get around it. Some day I can tell me grandkids I sailed through a hurricane....sort of.