Do you think that Disney world will reclose its gates due to the rising number of COVID cases in Florida and around the country?

[GoofGoof]

I'm curious. I don't know if anyone knows the answer. What exactly would classify as an "outbreak?"

So, if multiple WDW staff get infected (or ill, whatever the right term is) that would likely qualify as an outbreak that ought to cause concern because staff is likely in constant contact with visitors.

However, if there are guests that report being infected at or near time of a Disney vacation, would that cause similar concern? I mean, a guest comes and goes to the park for only a limited time.

Edit: Unlike everyone else on the internet, I'm not an epidemiologist

This highlights the challenges with contact tracing but here’s my thoughts on how this most likely works. Let’s take Universal as the example since its been open longer. A person tests positive and the department of health worker asks all the places they have been in the past 14 days. The list includes 5 restaurants, the mall, 2 shopping centers, an office building for work, a friend‘s house for a BBQ and 2 trips to the grocery store along with a day spent at Islands of Adventure. It’s virtually impossible to “pin” an infection on Universal in that case because the person went many other places and only spent 1 day at Universal. The information is still taken and most likely they will attempt to follow up with the people the person works with and the friends at the BBQ. The department of health is not going to do anything with the other contact places except document them. It’s impossible to trace the people you had contact with at those public locations.

As you pointed out It’s much easier to identify an outbreak amongst staff than visitors. If several workers from the same area test positive they may reach out to others in that area and suggest they get tested. I think if multiple additional people come back positive they would categorize it an outbreak. I believe it would be nearly impossible to pin an outbreak amongst guests on a theme park like Universal.

The one area where WDW is unique is the time spent on property. It is possible that a decent percentage of WDW guests will stay there for a week or longer and especially if they fly in and use DME may not leave WDW. So while there still won’t be proof that someone definitely got sick at WDW it’s more likely to have cases amongst guests pinned on it due to the length of stay. If someone arrives healthy and comes down with symptoms 10 days into a 2 week visit that will most likely be assumed to be an infection from WDW.

 

[chrisvee]

How many more of these do you think we will see? It’s just starting I think.

alot

sometimes living in PA exhausts me

 

[GoofGoof]

How many more of these do you think we will see? It’s just starting I think.

Parents sue Kennywood, Sandcastle, Idlewild over mask requirements

The parents of four children with medical conditions are suing Kennywood, Sandcastle Waterpark and Idlewild & SoakZone, contending their ownership violated federal law and Pennsylvania Health Department coronavirus orders by requiring all patrons to wear face masks. The federal lawsuit contends...

triblive.com

Who cares. That will be wrapped up in court for years. By the time they get a verdict the pandemic will be long over. Nobody is beating a mask requirement with a lawsuit. It is what it is. People just need to deal with it.

 

[oceanbreeze77]

And the mayor of Amity Island thought the water was safe.

his wife is also a front runner for the VP nom

 

[mergatroid]

How many more of these do you think we will see? It’s just starting I think.

Parents sue Kennywood, Sandcastle, Idlewild over mask requirements

The parents of four children with medical conditions are suing Kennywood, Sandcastle Waterpark and Idlewild & SoakZone, contending their ownership violated federal law and Pennsylvania Health Department coronavirus orders by requiring all patrons to wear face masks. The federal lawsuit contends...

triblive.com

People are so selfish and stupid.

 

[lazyboy97o]

Who cares. That will be wrapped up in court for years. By the time they get a verdict the pandemic will be long over. Nobody is beating a mask requirement with a lawsuit. It is what it is. People just need to deal with it.

A court could order the parks to exempt people while the litigation is pending. The hurdle they have to overcome is safety. Desired accommodations do not have to be provided if they are considered unsafe. This is why parks can prohibit persons with missing limbs from riding a coaster even if they have ridden the coaster in the past.

 

[havoc315]

But just a few days ago they said they attempted to find a contribution from the theme parks that are already opened and could not find anything. They specifically said they are looked. So by that, there are currently no indications.

they looked. So they determined the origins of all 12,000 of yesterday’s confirmed infections??

Here is the truth. They don’t know. Based on the limited available evidence, they haven’t seen a big spike that they can definitively attach to the smaller theme park openings.
But they truly don’t know.

 

[havoc315]

A court could order the parks to exempt people while the litigation is pending. The hurdle they have to overcome is safety. Desired accommodations do not have to be provided if they are considered unsafe. This is why parks can prohibit persons with missing limbs from riding a coaster even if they have ridden the coaster in the past.

Though not specifically masks, the Supreme Court already refused to hear challenges to Covid public health measures.
No question the courts would uphold mask requirements.
Just like they uphold pants requirements!

Can you imagine someone challenging a restaurant prohibition against naked guests?

 

[Andrew C]

they looked. So they determined the origins of all 12,000 of yesterday’s confirmed infections??

Here is the truth. They don’t know. Based on the limited available evidence, they haven’t seen a big spike that they can definitively attach to the smaller theme park openings.
But they truly don’t know.

I’m confused. Am I supposed to believe the experts in the field or not? I keep getting conflicted messages.

 

[GoofGoof]

I’m confused. Am I supposed to believe the experts in the field or not? I keep getting conflicted messages.

They haven’t identified an outbreak directly related to the parks that have been open. That doesn’t mean nobody got sick there. How could they possibly identify a theme park as the source if people are only spending a day or 2 there at most? Would it be fair to pin the case on a supermarket or gym because the person visited those places? Same goes for a theme park. Now workers could be different if they spent little time anywhere but home and work over a period of a week or 2. It’s much easier to determine that the theme park is where they likely got sick.

 

[Andrew C]

They haven’t identified an outbreak directly related to the parks that have been open. That doesn’t mean nobody got sick there. How could they possibly identify a theme park as the source if people are only spending a day or 2 there at most? Would it be fair to pin the case on a supermarket or gym because the person visited those places? Same goes for a theme park. Now workers could be different if they spent little time anywhere but home and work over a period of a week or 2. It’s much easier to determine that the theme park is where they likely got sick.

No one has said nobody got sick there. They said they looked and found no connection. Here is the quote. They aren’t aware of any connection and they checked for one. Of course there could have been cases and he said as much. And it doesn’t mean an outbreak can’t occur in the future. But this is what they are seeing now. I’m not stating anything more or less.

“I would be lying to say that we have not seen a case here and there that mention one of the parks. But we have not seen an outbreak in any of the parks that are open so far that we are aware of, and we have searched for it ... we have not found it,” Pino said at a news conference.

 

[oceanbreeze77]

they looked. So they determined the origins of all 12,000 of yesterday’s confirmed infections??

Here is the truth. They don’t know. Based on the limited available evidence, they haven’t seen a big spike that they can definitively attach to the smaller theme park openings.
But they truly don’t know.

that's why its called "community spread." The spread occurred in a community setting

 

[GoofGoof]

No one has said nobody got sick there. They said they looked and found no connection. Here is the quote. They aren’t aware of any connection and they checked for one. Of course there could have been cases and he said as much. And it doesn’t mean an outbreak can’t occur in the future. But this is what they are seeing now.

“I would be lying to say that we have not seen a case here and there that mention one of the parks. But we have not seen an outbreak in any of the parks that are open so far that we are aware of, and we have searched for it ... we have not found it,” Pino said at a news conference.

Right, so they have seen cases where people mention theme park visits, but like I said it would be unfair to characterize them as being definitely from the theme parks because there’s no guarantee they got sick there. The best they could do is look for multiple people who got sick around the same time and all went to the same places, but even that would be really hard for a larger park like Universal and certainly WDW.

Flip the story around. If a department of health official came out tomorrow and said there were confirmed cases linked to Universal or Sea World there would be dozens of posts here saying how it’s impossible to know if thats where the people actually got sick. I’m not sure how they define an outbreak, but I would assume that would be a whole lot more likely amongst CMs that they actually can trace. In a theme park environment you and I can cross paths and never know it. There are thousands of people you come in casual contact with in the course of a day. There’s no way to trace that or even attempt to. At a place like a bar or a backyard BBQ it’s much easier to identify who had contact with each other and link the cases together.

 

[MickeyLuv'r]

No.. I think people want businesses open *safely.*

That does mean closing some businesses in some locations where it's the only effective way to manage the virus.
It means operating other businesses in other locations with preventive measures.

If Florida was not currently having skyrocketing cases and increasing deaths and filled-up ICUs, that's an entirely different conversation.

The question is --- As applied to Disney specifically, is it a significant danger? And let me say this to everyone -- we don't know.

Another facet to this is the optics. "Disney Opens as Virus Surges in FL" is not a good headline for WDW.

 

[havoc315]

I’m confused. Am I supposed to believe the experts in the field or not? I keep getting conflicted messages.

Yes, experts should be believed. Not necessarily political departments, and their spin on the scientists. and the experts must be read carefully.

so where is the peer reviewed study saying that not a single case of Covid was transmitted at Universal, or among people traveling to Universal? (And other theme parks)

All the experts have said is: we traced some of the cases, of the small portion of cases we traced, we haven’t seen an outbreak specifically attributable to theme parks.

IOW — they don’t know. They haven’t seen an outbreak specifically attributable to a theme park, but they can’t rule out that cases are spreading in theme parks, on planes in their way to Orlando, in hotels and restaurants in Orlando and other theme park communities.

In fact, with Orange County now having over 1,000 cases per day... (20 times as much as Manhattan, NY).. it would truly be shocking if no travelers to theme parks were getting infected. You’d have to think theme park visitors have some magic immunity against infection in Orange County... that it’s solely locals getting infected.

In the last 2 days, there have been 2200 positive test results in Orange County. They traced the source all off 2200 infections? None of them were theme park employees? None of them were people visiting theme parks?

what are the experts actually saying:


"In California and Florida, where a lot of the major theme parks are based, you have not only the case rates rising, we also have people from all over the world traveling in and out of [the state]," Dr. Chidinma Chima-Melton, board-certified pulmonologist who sees Covid-19 patients in the ICU at UCLA Medical Center tells CNBC Make It. "It's a powder keg situation, and it's a perfect storm. So, from my perspective, it is not safe at all to go."

The safety recommendations for the general public, such as social distancing and wearing a mask to prevent Covid-19 transmission, are "almost impossible to really implement effectively in an area like a theme park," Dr. Latesha Elopre, assistant professor in the University of Alabama's division of infectious diseases tells CNBC Make It. "Having an environment that you can't really control from a public health standpoint, makes it difficult to say 'yes'

———-
Dr. Anne Rimoin, a professor of epidemiology at the UCLA Fielding School of Public Health and the leader of the UCLA COVID-19 Rapid Response Initiative, told Variety it is a “terrible idea to be opening right now.”

——-

 

[TJJohn12]

...The department of health is not going to do anything with the other contact places except document them. It’s impossible to trace the people you had contact with at those public locations....

It's not impossible, there's just a lack of political and social will to go about it. Other nations are doing that type of tracing using cellphone geolocation data.

That's where Disney actually COULD serve as a more traceable area. Between cell phone MAC addresses and Magicband scans (photopass sensors, ride customization scanners, touch points, cardless purchases) it would not be terribly hard to find many of the people who - for instance - rode IASW within say a 20-30 minute window when a confirmed infected person rode as well. Those people should be tested.

 

[GoofGoof]

It's not impossible, there's just a lack of political and social will to go about it. Other nations are doing that type of tracing using cellphone geolocation data.

That's where Disney actually COULD serve as a more traceable area. Between cell phone MAC addresses and Magicband scans (photopass sensors, ride customization scanners, touch points, cardless purchases) it would not be terribly hard to find many of the people who - for instance - rode IASW within say a 20-30 minute window when a confirmed infected person rode as well. Those people should be tested.

It’s impossible in the US. We had the technology to use the cell phone apps and the overwhelming response was no thanks.
There is no way Disney shares any data they collect from guests with health department officials. It won’t happen.

 

[Andrew C]

Yes, experts should be believed. Not necessarily political departments, and their spin on the scientists. and the experts must be read carefully.

so where is the peer reviewed study saying that not a single case of Covid was transmitted at Universal, or among people traveling to Universal? (And other theme parks)

All the experts have said is: we traced some of the cases, of the small portion of cases we traced, we haven’t seen an outbreak specifically attributable to theme parks.

IOW — they don’t know. They haven’t seen an outbreak specifically attributable to a theme park, but they can’t rule out that cases are spreading in theme parks, on planes in their way to Orlando, in hotels and restaurants in Orlando and other theme park communities.

In fact, with Orange County now having over 1,000 cases per day... (20 times as much as Manhattan, NY).. it would truly be shocking if no travelers to theme parks were getting infected. You’d have to think theme park visitors have some magic immunity against infection in Orange County... that it’s solely locals getting infected.

In the last 2 days, there have been 2200 positive test results in Orange County. They traced the source all off 2200 infections? None of them were theme park employees? None of them were people visiting theme parks?

what are the experts actually saying:


"In California and Florida, where a lot of the major theme parks are based, you have not only the case rates rising, we also have people from all over the world traveling in and out of [the state]," Dr. Chidinma Chima-Melton, board-certified pulmonologist who sees Covid-19 patients in the ICU at UCLA Medical Center tells CNBC Make It. "It's a powder keg situation, and it's a perfect storm. So, from my perspective, it is not safe at all to go."

The safety recommendations for the general public, such as social distancing and wearing a mask to prevent Covid-19 transmission, are "almost impossible to really implement effectively in an area like a theme park," Dr. Latesha Elopre, assistant professor in the University of Alabama's division of infectious diseases tells CNBC Make It. "Having an environment that you can't really control from a public health standpoint, makes it difficult to say 'yes'

———-
Dr. Anne Rimoin, a professor of epidemiology at the UCLA Fielding School of Public Health and the leader of the UCLA COVID-19 Rapid Response Initiative, told Variety it is a “terrible idea to be opening right now.”

——-

Oh my goodness. Again. This is the quote of the Heath official from Thursday. You can get my full opinion about it from my previous post to Goof. Again. I’m not saying anymore or less.

“I would be lying to say that we have not seen a case here and there that mention one of the parks. But we have not seen an outbreak in any of the parks that are open so far that we are aware of, and we have searched for it ... we have not found it,” Pino said at a news conference.”

 

[WDW Pro]

Something many of you are missing is that in the past few days there are some very troubling issues coming up for all of us. Worth a read to assess what's really concerning:

Study suggests coronavirus immunity only lasts a few months (and a 2nd infection could be worse)

hotair.com

 

[GoofGoof]

Oh my goodness. Again. This is the quote of the Heath official from Thursday. You can get my full opinion about it from my previous post to Goof. Again. I’m not saying anymore or less.

“I would be lying to say that we have not seen a case here and there that mention one of the parks. But we have not seen an outbreak in any of the parks that are open so far that we are aware of, and we have searched for it ... we have not found it,” Pino said at a news conference.”

One more point before I let this go. There’s no national database for contact tracing. There’s no system to inform other jurisdictions of infections. When I test positive the department of health in my local county would run the contact tracing. So for example, if 50 people all test positive today and they all visited WDW on July 11 if they live in 50 different counties around the country that’s 50 unique contact tracers. Each person would only see 1 case related to WDW. In other words the Orange County health official only has a piece of the overall puzzle on guests visiting. They would be much more likely to catch an outbreak from workers since they are more likely to be local.