lazyboy97o
Well-Known Member
A plateau may not have a peak but it isn’t good.
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Do you think that Disney world will reclose its gates due to the rising number of COVID cases in Florida and around the country?
- Thread starter Logan L
- Start date
No.. I think people want businesses open *safely.*
That does mean closing some businesses in some locations where it's the only effective way to manage the virus.
It means operating other businesses in other locations with preventive measures.
If Florida was not currently having skyrocketing cases and increasing deaths and filled-up ICUs, that's an entirely different conversation.
The question is --- As applied to Disney specifically, is it a significant danger? And let me say this to everyone -- we don't know.
It's quite possible that the mitigation measures will be enough to prevent Disney being a source of infection directly. (infections at Disney). It's possible that it won't lead to lots of infections indirectly (people getting it on planes, buses and ubers on the way to Disney, hotels and restaurants near Disney, etc). It's also possible that despite Disney's best efforts -- It's just too hard to prevent spread in restaurants with AC systems blowing the virus around, on rides with people screaming, etc.
We don't know. Now, I fully admit I don't know -- but considering the current Florida caseload, I would have thought it wiser to err on the side of caution.
That's. Not. How. It. Works.
We haven't solved AIDs. There is no herd immunity, there are no vaccines and it hasn't lost it's potency.
There is still no finish line of winning with AIDs, as an example.
But there is indeed another very major solution -- Adapting so you can live with it.
Even with a vaccine, most of the vaccines are not expected to be 100% effective. They are actually hoping for around 50% effective.
As with AIDs, they are hoping for therapeutics that make the disease less dangerous.
As with AIDs (which prompted a safe sex revolution), you change behaviors to reduce the prevalence of the disease.
In terms of viral outbreak, when numbers are low, you can safely contain spread with extensive testing and contact tracing. (which is done with HIV too)
You do all those things -- improved therapeutics, preventative behaviors, testing + contact tracing -- Those become a "solution" even without herd immunity, even without a vaccine (or a partially effective vaccine), etc.
There is no finish line here even with a vaccine. Contrary to the perception of some, there isn't going to be a magic day we mark on the calendar where we can rip off our masks and go back to normal.
It's a gradual progression... gradually adapting, following the science, and gradually returning to "normal" though possibly never fully exactly the same normal as we had before. (though I suspect we will get pretty close to that normal in another 6-18 months).
Mind you, Orange County has a major economic interest in WDW. So take it with a grain of salt.
I do indeed believe WDW has done an outstanding job putting in safety measures.
But it's ignoring the big danger: How well are all the hotels, restaurants and bar that surround WDW doing? How well are ubers, taxis, buses and airplanes doing that will bring the guests to Disney World?
chrisvee
Well-Known Member
yes. it‘s the people Disney is drawing to the area during a spike that’s the issue.
Orange County Mayor reiterates support of Disney theme park reopenings
The Walt Disney Company News
According to Jerry Demings, "if there is one place on planet Earth where we should be successful it would be at Disney."
www.wdwmagic.com
He/Florida Department of Health explicitly stated that the theme parks are not showing any issue. They have no indications of that at all.
WDW just opened. You can't going to see an "issue" for at least several weeks. Have other parks shown an issue?
Well... are cases increasing or decreasing in Florida?
Theme parks started re-opening in mid June...
How have cases gone since mid-June?
About a 1000% increase since early June. I don't know what degree of the increase is caused by "theme parks." Whether very little, or lots.
But don't tell me there are "no indications" of any issue. There is a big flashing siren of an issue.
schuelma
Well-Known Member
And the mayor of Amity Island thought the water was safe.
Andrew C
You know what's funny?
But just a few days ago they said they attempted to find a contribution from the theme parks that are already opened and could not find anything. They specifically said they are looked. So by that, there are currently no indications.
schuelma
Well-Known Member
With the amount of positive cases coming back I would be absolutely shocked if any amount of meaningful tracing is going on.
chrisvee
Well-Known Member
I continue to be amazed that there’s a burden of proof required around the issue of theme parks opening in the epicenter of a pandemic.
Andrew C
You know what's funny?
This is coming from an Orange County health officer. I’m just reporting what is being said.
schuelma
Well-Known Member
I am not saying they aren't trying- I'm saying the sheer numbers make it very unlikely they are able to adequately trace in sufficient numbers to make any real determinations.
I'm curious. I don't know if anyone knows the answer. What exactly would classify as an "outbreak?"
So, if multiple WDW staff get infected (or ill, whatever the right term is) that would likely qualify as an outbreak that ought to cause concern because staff is likely in constant contact with visitors.
However, if there are guests that report being infected at or near time of a Disney vacation, would that cause similar concern? I mean, a guest comes and goes to the park for only a limited time.
Edit: Unlike everyone else on the internet, I'm not an epidemiologist
So, if multiple WDW staff get infected (or ill, whatever the right term is) that would likely qualify as an outbreak that ought to cause concern because staff is likely in constant contact with visitors.
However, if there are guests that report being infected at or near time of a Disney vacation, would that cause similar concern? I mean, a guest comes and goes to the park for only a limited time.
Edit: Unlike everyone else on the internet, I'm not an epidemiologist
DisneyDebRob
Well-Known Member
You are one here.. congrats! We all are!I'm curious. I don't know if anyone knows the answer. What exactly would classify as an "outbreak?"
So, if multiple WDW staff get infected (or ill, whatever the right term is) that would likely qualify as an outbreak that ought to cause concern because staff is likely in constant contact with visitors.
However, if there are guests that report being infected at or near time of a Disney vacation, would that cause similar concern? I mean, a guest comes and goes to the park for only a limited time.
Edit: Unlike everyone else on the internet, I'm not an epidemiologist
DisneyDebRob
Well-Known Member
How many more of these do you think we will see? It’s just starting I think.
triblive.com
Parents sue Kennywood, Sandcastle, Idlewild over mask requirements
The parents of four children with medical conditions are suing Kennywood, Sandcastle Waterpark and Idlewild & SoakZone, contending their ownership violated federal law and Pennsylvania Health Department coronavirus orders by requiring all patrons to wear face masks. The federal lawsuit contends...
triblive.com
lazyboy97o
Well-Known Member
Large SARS-CoV-2 Outbreak Caused by Asymptomatic Traveler, China
Large SARS-CoV-2 Outbreak Caused by Asymptomatic Traveler, China
wwwnc.cdc.gov