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Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs
- Thread starter Disney Analyst
- Start date
DisneyWarrior27
Active Member
Well, look at that we’re on page 626 of this thread (no pun intended even if it comes off like a jokey homage to Lilo & Stitch).
And on the topic of the box office, Moana 2 made $1.869M today (18% drop from last Thursday and a 7% drop from Wednesday), which is closer to $1.9M than $1.8M in the dailies for the end to its third full week in theaters (not counting Thanksgiving Wednesday and Thursday) and is now at ≈ $346M domestic, thus putting it on pace for a $15-$17M fourth weekend (thus giving it an estimated 35-41% drop from the previous weekend).
I don’t know. I still think Moana 2 hits a billion in January, since it has no competition from any actual animated film (since Disney refers to Mufasa as live-action even if Barry Jenkins would disagree) til Dog Man on January 31st.
Even Variety is saying January is when we’ll likely see Moana 2 pass a billion worldwide: https://variety.com/2024/film/news/...tudios-disney-universal-paramount-1236236541/.
So, with Mufasa having a rotten RT score and Moana 2 having a higher and fresh RT score, that implies audiences will look at the scores & choose to see Moana 2 again over Mufasa. But we’ll have to wait and see.
So, yeah, I’m standing my ground on Moana 2 making $1 billion worldwide before Dog Man comes out.
And on the topic of the box office, Moana 2 made $1.869M today (18% drop from last Thursday and a 7% drop from Wednesday), which is closer to $1.9M than $1.8M in the dailies for the end to its third full week in theaters (not counting Thanksgiving Wednesday and Thursday) and is now at ≈ $346M domestic, thus putting it on pace for a $15-$17M fourth weekend (thus giving it an estimated 35-41% drop from the previous weekend).
I don’t know. I still think Moana 2 hits a billion in January, since it has no competition from any actual animated film (since Disney refers to Mufasa as live-action even if Barry Jenkins would disagree) til Dog Man on January 31st.
Even Variety is saying January is when we’ll likely see Moana 2 pass a billion worldwide: https://variety.com/2024/film/news/...tudios-disney-universal-paramount-1236236541/.
So, with Mufasa having a rotten RT score and Moana 2 having a higher and fresh RT score, that implies audiences will look at the scores & choose to see Moana 2 again over Mufasa. But we’ll have to wait and see.
So, yeah, I’m standing my ground on Moana 2 making $1 billion worldwide before Dog Man comes out.
DisneyWarrior27
Active Member
Time for Feige to one up him by giving The Fantastic 4: First Steps a marketing run similar to Deadpool & Wolverine’s by dropping the first trailer for that movie at the Super Bowl and getting more views than the teaser for Superman, especially if they make it a great teaser trailer that helps it make the movie stand out visually, tonally, and stylistically from previous MCU movies/Marvel Studios productions.
Disney Irish
Premium Member
I still think its possible, it'll have to continue to have good weekends from now until the end of January, but its possible.
DisneyWarrior27
Active Member
Aaand, Mufasa’s CinemaScore just came out and it’s… an A-.
I’m surprised.
I thought it would at least fair better than 2019 TLK with a better director.
But the fact that this has the same CS as Moana 2 shows Lin-Manuel Miranda couldn’t help make good enough songs to save this movie.
So I’m curious to see if audiences liked Moana 2 better or Mufasa better. Will be interesting.
Then again, it has the same CS as Wonka and that film made over $200M domestic.
We’ll see if this one does the same in the U.S.
But at least this bodes well for Moana 2
I’m surprised.
I thought it would at least fair better than 2019 TLK with a better director.
But the fact that this has the same CS as Moana 2 shows Lin-Manuel Miranda couldn’t help make good enough songs to save this movie.
So I’m curious to see if audiences liked Moana 2 better or Mufasa better. Will be interesting.
Then again, it has the same CS as Wonka and that film made over $200M domestic.
We’ll see if this one does the same in the U.S.
But at least this bodes well for Moana 2
Disney Irish
Premium Member
Well with an A- that means that Mufasa actually has some appeal to audiences after all and might end up having a better box office than predicted.
DisneyWarrior27
Active Member
I don’t think so, since the 2019 Lion King had an A.
But it is surprising that Moana 2 has an A- partially because the songs were a downgrade from Lin Manuel Miranda because of Barlow & Bear, even if I liked some of the songs in that movie (Beyond, We’re Back, What Could Be Better Than This), yet Mufasa: The Lion King with a better songwriter got an A- too, implying audiences maybe felt some songs of LMM in that movie, while catchy, weren’t memorable, except maybe for Milele.
Guess maybe some films need the right songwriters.
Farerb
Well-Known Member
It's very rare that kids/family movies receive below A- .
DisneyWarrior27
Active Member
Is it though?
I only ask because over the past 8 years there have been more kids/family movies than most that got A-‘s.
The Secret Life of Pets
The Secret Life of Pets 2
Despicable Me 3
The Grinch (2018)
Mary Poppins Returns
Pokemon: Detective Pikachu
Ralph Breaks The Internet
Frozen II
Onward
Tom and Jerry (2021)
Space Jam: A New Legacy
Paw Patrol: The Movie
Lightyear
Paws of Fury: The Legend of Hank
DC League of SuperPets
Wish
Wonka
Kung Fu Panda 4
Moana 2
Farerb
Well-Known Member
I said below.
Disney Irish
Premium Member
Yes, but A- typically means a movie will have legs and potentially have a good box office. For example Frozen 2 got an A- and did $1.45B. Not saying Mufasa is gonna make anywhere near that, but with A- score it may mean it may not be a bomb after all.
DisneyWarrior27
Active Member
brideck
Well-Known Member
And this is what I meant when I said that the CinemaScore is a broken scale. If the only worthwhile result is an A, why have the rest of the scale at all?
It's as if the public is saying, "What? People aren't saying it's the greatest movie of all-time? Then I won't see it." Which given box office trends is perhaps, disappointingly, a true interpretation of how the zeitgeist works.
brideck
Well-Known Member
Which source you going with here?
The fine folks at BoxOfficeReport have it at $79m for Sonic and $41.5m for Mufasa, (The Wonka comp is $39m for an opening, and it didn't have any competition at all its opening weekend.) and we've seen a lot of predictions this year come in under reality when movies have good word of mouth, so it'll be interesting to see what comes of this one.
Rotten tomatoes has Mufasa at 88 percent audience score which is quite good…which I think is more indicative of good word of mouth then cinema score… we will have to see what happens…. As this time of year opening weekend does not always tell the full story… you often have to wait a few days to get a grasp at what type of legs a film might have
I don't think the legs are going to kick in (or at least, given it is Christmastime, not strongly) for Mufasa if this first weekend is a disappointment, any more than they did for Solo - A Star Wars Story (which this is getting a lot of comparisons to!), Strange World, or Wish. (Remember all the hemming and hawing over Wish potentially being the next Elemental?) It's even been pointed out that compared to TLK '19, this sequel is performing like Joker Folie a Deux so far, just a gigantic drop off from the first time around, while Sonic the Hedgehog 3 is eating its lunch. Better hope the international numbers are huge!
Ghost93
Well-Known Member
I think Mufasa is paying for the sins of the awful 2019 Lion King film.
I think Mufasa is "just okay" so I'm not going to mourn its box office failure. However, I will admit I was pleasantly surprised how much I did not hate the movie.
"Not that bad" isn't a tagline you want to use in your marketing, but considering how terrible the 2019 Lion King was, I see Mufasa as an artistic win just by comparison, lol.
Disney Irish
Premium Member
So far Deadline has Mufasa at $125M WW for the weekend. This can always change but so far as the headline states it’s a muted opening if it stays true.
deadline.com
‘Mufasa’ Muted As It Lopes To $33M Through Friday Overseas, On Way To $125M Global Launch – International Box Office
Disney’s Mufasa is not as regal as hoped in its global debut. The prequel is now looking at a $125M worldwide box office start through Sunday
deadline.com
Animaniac93-98
Well-Known Member
Deadline, which updated their forecast (as usual) this morning:
"Paramount’s $122M production Sonic the Hedgehog 3 is the alpha male gorilla heading into the Christmas frame with a $70.5M opening, well ahead of Disney’s $200M prequel Mufasa which is nothing to sing ‘Hakuna Matata’ about with a $36M-$38M estimated start. Mufasa gets an A CinemaScore to Mufasa‘s A-. On Friday alone with previews, Mufasa did close to half the business than Sonic the Hedgehog 3 did, $13.3M to $25.75M."
Animaniac93-98
Well-Known Member
This continues the trend of sequels to Disney live-action remakes not doing well, regardless of how the first did.