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Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs
- Thread starter Disney Analyst
- Start date
And this is what I meant when I said that the CinemaScore is a broken scale. If the only worthwhile result is an A, why have the rest of the scale at all?
It's as if the public is saying, "What? People aren't saying it's the greatest movie of all-time? Then I won't see it." Which given box office trends is perhaps, disappointingly, a true interpretation of how the zeitgeist works.
Which source you going with here?
The fine folks at BoxOfficeReport have it at $79m for Sonic and $41.5m for Mufasa, (The Wonka comp is $39m for an opening, and it didn't have any competition at all its opening weekend.) and we've seen a lot of predictions this year come in under reality when movies have good word of mouth, so it'll be interesting to see what comes of this one.
Rotten tomatoes has Mufasa at 88 percent audience score which is quite good…which I think is more indicative of good word of mouth then cinema score… we will have to see what happens…. As this time of year opening weekend does not always tell the full story… you often have to wait a few days to get a grasp at what type of legs a film might have
I don't think the legs are going to kick in (or at least, given it is Christmastime, not strongly) for Mufasa if this first weekend is a disappointment, any more than they did for Solo - A Star Wars Story (which this is getting a lot of comparisons to!), Strange World, or Wish. (Remember all the hemming and hawing over Wish potentially being the next Elemental?) It's even been pointed out that compared to TLK '19, this sequel is performing like Joker Folie a Deux so far, just a gigantic drop off from the first time around, while Sonic the Hedgehog 3 is eating its lunch. Better hope the international numbers are huge!
Ghost93
Well-Known Member
I think Mufasa is paying for the sins of the awful 2019 Lion King film.
I think Mufasa is "just okay" so I'm not going to mourn its box office failure. However, I will admit I was pleasantly surprised how much I did not hate the movie.
"Not that bad" isn't a tagline you want to use in your marketing, but considering how terrible the 2019 Lion King was, I see Mufasa as an artistic win just by comparison, lol.
Disney Irish
Premium Member
So far Deadline has Mufasa at $125M WW for the weekend. This can always change but so far as the headline states it’s a muted opening if it stays true.
deadline.com
‘Mufasa’ Muted As It Lopes To $33M Through Friday Overseas, On Way To $125M Global Launch – International Box Office
Disney’s Mufasa is not as regal as hoped in its global debut. The prequel is now looking at a $125M worldwide box office start through Sunday
deadline.com
Animaniac93-98
Well-Known Member
Deadline, which updated their forecast (as usual) this morning:
"Paramount’s $122M production Sonic the Hedgehog 3 is the alpha male gorilla heading into the Christmas frame with a $70.5M opening, well ahead of Disney’s $200M prequel Mufasa which is nothing to sing ‘Hakuna Matata’ about with a $36M-$38M estimated start. Mufasa gets an A CinemaScore to Mufasa‘s A-. On Friday alone with previews, Mufasa did close to half the business than Sonic the Hedgehog 3 did, $13.3M to $25.75M."
Animaniac93-98
Well-Known Member
This continues the trend of sequels to Disney live-action remakes not doing well, regardless of how the first did.
DarkMetroid567
Well-Known Member
This might be the optimal box office outcome for Disney fans. Moana 2 and Mufasa are performing well but it should be clear to Disney that they left money on the table here.
DisneyWarrior27
Active Member
I can’t agree on Moana 2 showing Disney left money on the table when they saw turning that from a Disney+ series that no one would watch to a movie that would make money back big time was the smart financial move.
But Mufasa, yeah, they left money on the table with that movie.
BrianLo
Well-Known Member
Sorry, how so? It’s merely one metric and it correlates quite well to word of mouth. Do you just have issues with the letter grading? As in A- is a good mark in school but a so-so CinemaScore for family-faire?
There are some genre exceptions of course, but an A+ will correlate to phenomenal word of mouth, A well above average, A- low average and then your B’s tend to correlate to bad word of mouth and terrible holds.
How so? It's playing ultra-wide in theaters around the world at the biggest time of year for the box office in many countries. I'm not sure how it would be performing better unless it wasn't going up against a title that seems to appeal more to actual children. It's rather like what happened last year with Wish, which kids were passing over in favor of Trolls Band Together, Migration, and especially Wonka.
(Interestingly, at my local five-screener Mufasa is on two screens so it gets two more showings per day, but Sonic the Hedgehog 3 got the biggest auditorium so it kind of evens out.)
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BrianLo
Well-Known Member
I don’t know if that’s quite the lesson to take from Mufasa. That’s more a case of they shouldn’t have made it. Which I think has been clear to many of us for a while.
I really think they are being told to stop with these franchise milkings. If Live action Moana tanks we’ve really got the message across.
BrianLo
Well-Known Member
Speaking of disasters… Kraven is quickly becoming one for the record books. Albeit Disney has had two recently (Strange World and then The Marvels particularly driven by its budget). Kraven is looking to hit a similar range loss as those films. Probably in the net negative 200 million range.
DarkMetroid567
Well-Known Member
Exactly! I mean, it’s still going to make them money, but not a lot of it.
Mufasa had a clean enough release (none of the TLM stuff and what Snow White is eventually going to face) that without excuse, it should be clear to Disney that this kinda film isn’t going to cut it.
easyrowrdw
Well-Known Member
Yeah. I think depends on what the frame of reference is. I agree with you, comparing Moana 2 to what it was going to be. But given what a Moana sequel could have been, I think Disney did leave money on the table. I think the same applies to Mufasa. The Lion King is considered a masterpiece for Disney and the remake made tons of money. Mufasa should be running away with the box office IMO.
I get what you're saying here -- imagine if Moana 2 had been more than "fine" for most viewers, how much better it might have done. If there's a zeitgeist-capturing, chatter-inspiring blockbuster this season, it's Wicked Part I, even if the box office numbers are bigger for Moana 2. And Zootopia 2 is going up against Wicked: For Good next Thanksgiving...WDFAS needs to step up its game to compete.
DarkMetroid567
Well-Known Member
Unrelated to your point, but my gut tells me Zootopia 2 is doing Inside Out 2 numbers, especially abroad. Whereas Wicked will do very well but will probably have worse legs than part one.
Ghost93
Well-Known Member
I think Wicked Part 2 will make slightly more money than part 1, but it will be more front loaded as people won't be "discovering" Wicked throughout the holiday season — the fanbase will be already established. So I think Part 2 will have a much bigger opening than part 1 ($160-$200 millionish opening weekend), but then it will have a steep drop off in the following weekends.