Disney Irish
Premium Member
I mean if we're doing comparisons, why not this years other animation releases not named Inside Out 2 -
I mean compared to Moana 2's "moderate success" those others are surely failures.
-
Welcome to the WDWMAGIC.COM Forums!
Please take a look around, and feel free to sign up and join the community.
Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs
- Thread starter Disney Analyst
- Start date
I mean compared to Moana 2's "moderate success" those others are surely failures.
Can we also put these box office numbers into the context of movie going post 2020? The world of cinema going has changed.
TP2000
Well-Known Member
How many times do I have to repeat the phrase Made For TV budget in this thread? It's already coming up on a dozen or so in the past week. That's what helped Moana 2 reach profitability so quickly in its third week, even with unimpressuive overseas box office and modest success at home.
Many of the comps discussed in the past week were brought up here by others, and I happily plugged them in. Care to suggest one we haven't discussed yet? Maybe there's some inflation adjusted analogy to 1992's Aladdin, for example?
Name a film, and I can have Mr. Johnson insert an IBM card into his console for us.
You forgot to include the actual financial figures at the bottom of that chart. Oof! Here's what that chart looks like adjusted for inflation and including Moana 2.
Using a quick 50% of global box office and some damp cocktail napkin math that adds half the production budget to account for the marketing, I come up with these broad ballpark figures for profit on these five profitable movies:
Moana 2 = $135 Million profit and counting, AKA "Modest Success So Far"
Avengers = $900 Million profit, AKA "Blockbuster Of The Decade"
Avatar = $1.6 Billion (with a B) profit, AKA "Blockbuster Of The Century"
Barbie = $500 Million profit, AKA "Blockbuster Of The Year"
Frozen = $540 Million profit, AKA "Blockbuster Of The Year"
Moana 2 is on track to do a tad over half the global box office that Frozen did, adjusted for inflation. It's profit will likely be less than half of Frozen's, even with its small Made For TV production budget. Surely we can see that there's a difference in financial and cultural impact between something like Frozen and Moana 2?
At least I can see that difference. It's sitting right there in plain numbers.
TP2000
Well-Known Member
One eeked out a small profit, two were modest successes, one was the clear winner (Despicable Me). You have to include the financials and their budgets to get that story. A chart alone doesn't prove much unless every movie on the chart has the exact same production and marketing costs.
Moana 2 = $135 Million profit so far
Despicable Me 4 = $335 Million profit
Kung Fu Panda 4 = $145 Million profit
Garfield = $30 Million profit
Choosing from that list, I'd rather be the studio exec who approved Despicable Me 4, wouldn't you?
Disney Irish
Premium Member
Nope, I wouldn't want to be because if we're doing comparisons then Moana 2 is trending higher and will likely make more than Despicable Me 4. Again context matters here and you cherry pick all your data, as shown by your recent posts and all the responses to it.
BrianLo
Well-Known Member
I think you’ll be modestly surprised. Let’s swing back around to this one in the Spring. When both Moana finishes running and Deadline unveils the odd budgeting to marketing practices Illumination films see. I suspect Moana 2 will ultimately land 3rd in their final tally’s, but it’s going to be a close race.
I guess for clarification, do you consider DM4 to be ‘modest’? That will better help me understand what you feel that line is.
Tha Realest
Well-Known Member
Who would’ve imagined we’d be in a place where a sequel to Sonic is more critically lauded than a mainline Disney Princess film?
TalkingHead
Well-Known Member
Could speculate that Mufasa would’ve made more if Moana 2 hadn’t been released a month ago. Would also love to know how much overlap there is between Moana and Sonic audiences apart from AMC/Regal subscribers.
Seems conceivable that some Disney family audiences forked over, what, $100 for tickets and concessions for Moana and decided to skip Mufasa.
Seems conceivable that some Disney family audiences forked over, what, $100 for tickets and concessions for Moana and decided to skip Mufasa.
Disney Irish
Premium Member
Disney will cross $5B globally after this weekend, having already crossed $2B domestically -
thewaltdisneycompany.com
This will have Disney ending 2024 as the undisputed top studio both domestically and globally, back on top where they belong.
Alan Bergman, Co-Chairman, Disney Entertainment, on the Record-Breaking Year for The Walt Disney Studios - The Walt Disney Company
We spoke with Alan Bergman, co-chairman, Disney Entertainment, to learn more about Disney’s record year, the strategies behind the successes, and what audiences can expect from The Walt Disney Studios in 2025.
thewaltdisneycompany.com
This will have Disney ending 2024 as the undisputed top studio both domestically and globally, back on top where they belong.
TP2000
Well-Known Member
While we await the Thursday box office numbers previewing how this weekend, and perhaps all of Christmas vacation, will be shaping up...
Forget Moana 2, this screenshot below taken just now doesn't seem to bode well for Mufasa!
I'm guessing the Sonic movie is aimed at boys, perhaps even up to the young men demographic who grew up with that franchise? While Moana 2 is obviously a Princess movie, and Mufasa would seem to be... maybe just a dud with everyone?
Forget Moana 2, this screenshot below taken just now doesn't seem to bode well for Mufasa!
I'm guessing the Sonic movie is aimed at boys, perhaps even up to the young men demographic who grew up with that franchise? While Moana 2 is obviously a Princess movie, and Mufasa would seem to be... maybe just a dud with everyone?
TP2000
Well-Known Member
With all due respect, and because I always enjoy your perspective, using the word "modest" correctly in a sentence within the proper context of that sentence and subject does not equate to "trolling".
The data doesn't seem to show Moana 2 as a "major success" at the box office. It seems to be a "modest success", and it's trendline is heading towards flatlining rather quickly. Moana 2 has had weak legs domestically and globally since the end of Thanksgiving weekend.
Luckily, it had a very low (for Burbank) production budget because it was only supposed to be a TV show, not a big tentpole movie for Thanksgiving. So it got to profitability by its third week in theaters, even with its weak legs.
As of the box office for Wednesday, December 19th, here's what its profit looks like....
Moana 2: Production $150, Marketing $75, Domestic Take $206, Overseas Take $152 = $133 Million and counting
On its current trajectory, Moana 2 will likely pull in between $165 and $185 Million in profit for Disney. Compared to the $400 to $600 Million in profit some of Disney's other 21st century Princess movies have done, a profit of $175 Million owing to a low production budget seems like a modest success to me.
Do you know what it costs to keep the Burbank studio complex running every year with 2,500 employees with upper-middle class SoCal salaries and full medical/dental benefits and subsidized dining and free Tesla charging? Me either. But it's got to be a LOT. The Burbank studio employees can vaporize that modest profit from Moana 2 in a matter of weeks.
-2-Full.jpg)
Moana 2 (2024) - Financial Information
Financial analysis of Moana 2 (2024) including budget, domestic and international box office gross, DVD and Blu-ray sales reports, total earnings and profitability.
thenumbers.com
TalkingHead
Well-Known Member
It’s currently the fourth highest grossing film of the year with the worldwide gross. Isn’t that better than modest?With all due respect, and because I always enjoy your perspective, using the word "modest" correctly in a sentence within the proper context of that sentence and subject does not equate to "trolling".
The data doesn't seem to show Moana 2 as a "major success" at the box office. It seems to be a "modest success", and it's trendline is heading towards flatlining rather quickly. Moana 2 has had weak legs domestically and globally since the end of Thanksgiving weekend.
Luckily, it had a very low (for Burbank) production budget because it was only supposed to be a TV show, not a big tentpole movie for Thanksgiving. So it got to profitability by its third week in theaters, even with its weak legs.
As of the box office for Wednesday, December 19th, here's what its profit looks like....
Moana 2: Production $150, Marketing $75, Domestic Take $206, Overseas Take $152 = $133 Million and counting
On its current trajectory, Moana 2 will likely pull in between $165 and $185 Million in profit for Disney. Compared to the $400 to $600 Million in profit some of Disney's other 21st century Princess movies have done, a profit of $175 Million owing to a low production budget seems like a modest success to me.
Do you know what it costs to keep the Burbank studio complex running every year with 2,500 employees with upper-middle class SoCal salaries and full medical/dental benefits and subsidized dining and free Tesla charging? Me either. But it's got to be a LOT. The Burbank studio employees can vaporize that modest profit from Moana 2 in a matter of weeks.
View attachment 831683
Moana 2 (2024) - Financial Information
Financial analysis of Moana 2 (2024) including budget, domestic and international box office gross, DVD and Blu-ray sales reports, total earnings and profitability.
TP2000
Well-Known Member
If that nets you only $133 Million in profit and counting and you are Disney, then the box office success for that movie seems modest to me. Perhaps the confusion comes from the fact I'm so focused on Disney, and I don't consider small indy studio movies? Comparing it to Poor Things, then Moana 2 is a huge hit, for example. But compared to other Princess movies...
When Frozen II pulled in $540 Million in profit for Burbank, $133 Million heading towards $175 Million seems modest.
To your very valid point, for the calendar year thus far, Moana 2 is in the top 5 of global movies for their box office haul. But compared to the top two movies on that list, that were both from The Walt Disney Company and its stable of flagship studios, Moana 2 is a modest success compared to the other two's bigger success. Thank goodness they only spent $150 Million on Moana 2, or else it wouldn't crack $100 Million in profit.
Moana 2 is on track to do less than half the global box office of Inside Out 2. That seems the definition of "modest" to me.
TalkingHead
Well-Known Member
Assuming your number is correct, how many other movies this year have netted $133 million profit?
Disney Irish
Premium Member
And this shows why things continue to be so messed up in terms of expectations. The moment that making over $100M profit on a movie is considered "modest" we know that we need a major reset again. I thought we had this reset after the pandemic, but guess not.
Also who else is calling Moana's box office "modest" besides you? Anyone in the trades? Any reviewer? Any one anywhere?
And for the record I don't think Disney is upset and calling it "modest" that Moana 2 has made over $100M in profit, NOT. ONE. BIT.
TP2000
Well-Known Member
I have no idea if anyone else has used my forbidden and very naughty phrase "modest success" to describe Moana 2's $133 Million and counting profit.
Instead, I just went and Googled Moana 2 news items and found this exciting prediction from a month ago... Moana 2 will surprass Inside Out 2 at the box office. (Spoiler Alert: Moana 2 will barely get half the box office of Inside Out 2)
"Some people in the know are telling me that 'Moana 2' could eclipse and outshine even the success of 'Inside Out 2,'" AMC CEO Adam Aron recently said during a quarterly earnings call.
Moana 2 Might Pull An Inside Out 2 At The Box Office - SlashFilm
Not only will Moana 2 deliver the goods at the box office, but it may also follow Inside Out 2 in becoming a smash-hit for Disney.
www.slashfilm.com
TalkingHead
Well-Known Member
Well, he’s an egregious huckster who you shouldn’t trust to tell you the color of the sky.
Disney Irish
Premium Member
And? Just because that was what some exhibitor expected over a month ago doesn't make it "modest" now.I have no idea if anyone has used the forbidden phrase "modest success" to describe Moana 2's $133 Million and counting profit.
I just went and Googled Moana 2 news items and found this exciting prediction from a month ago... Moana 2 will surprass Inside Out 2 at the box office. (Spoiler Alert: Moana 2 will barely get half the box office of Inside Out 2)
"Some people in the know are telling me that 'Moana 2' could eclipse and outshine even the success of 'Inside Out 2,'" AMC CEO Adam Aron recently said during a quarterly earnings call.
Moana 2 Might Pull An Inside Out 2 At The Box Office - SlashFilm
Not only will Moana 2 deliver the goods at the box office, but it may also follow Inside Out 2 in becoming a smash-hit for Disney.
Also the term is not forbidden when used correctly, but there is no way someone would consider a movie making over $100M profit as being modest on a $150M budget. Every Studio on the planet would LOVE that kind of return.
TP2000
Well-Known Member
I have no idea who he is, other than knowing where my local AMC theater is, but I'll trust you.
Disney Irish
Premium Member
Well I wouldn't call him a huckster, but he sure is out there in terms of how he runs AMC.