Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[TP2000]

While we mourn the loss of proper vocabulary by daring to use the phrase "modest success" for Princess movies, here's a fun new topic to cheer us up again...

The production budgets for Sonic vs. Mufasa. Apparently Disney spent $200 Million on Mufasa, which seems par for the course for them. Paramount spent notably less on Sonic 3, at $122 Million. In Thursday previews, Sonic 3 did $6.5 Million domestically, and Mufasa did about half that even though Mufasa has 350 more theaters nationwide.

Which one gets to profitability first? Or, better question, does Mufasa stand a chance to break even?

 

[brideck]

re: Mufasa -- It's all going to depend on audience reception/word of mouth. If it manages to be this season's Wonka (which I wouldn't count on given the number of prominent animated/musical movies out right now) it could end up in similar $200m/$600m territory even with its projected opening.

Previous Sonic movies have been pretty front-loaded at the box office, so even with a stronger opening they could very well end up in similar places.

 

[Vegas Disney Fan]

Not to re-open a can of worms but I thought the general consensus was a 2.5 times multiplayer to break even… wouldn’t that currently put Moana 2 at a $350 million profit?

To me the semantics of “moderate” success really depends on expectations, if a movie was expected to make a billion in profit and “only” made $250 million I’d call it a moderate success despite being wildly profitable, if it was expected to lose $200 million and “only” lost $25 million I’d also call it a moderate success based on expectations, even though it lost money.

I could see the argument for both sides with Moana 2, I don’t think anyone will argue it’s not a success, it’s just a matter of if you think it met expectations.

 

[Disney Irish]

Not to re-open a can of worms but I thought the general consensus was a 2.5 times multiplayer to break even… wouldn’t that currently put Moana 2 at a $350 million profit?

I got tired of correcting that over and over, and only bring it up when someone tries to label something as losing money when its clearly already in profit town.

To me the semantics of “moderate” success really depends on expectations, if a movie was expected to make a billion in profit and “only” made $250 million I’d call it a moderate success despite being wildly profitable, if it was expected to lose $200 million and “only” lost $25 million I’d also call it a moderate success based on expectations, even though it lost money.

I could see the argument for both sides with Moana 2, I don’t think anyone will argue it’s not a success, it’s just a matter of if you think it met expectations.

Its why putting this whole think into perspective is important. And why labeling something before its done is silly.

 

[Animaniac93-98]

Current prediction for the domestic weekend is $70 million for Sonic, $35 million for Mufasa

 

[Serpico Jones]

Mufasa looking like a big time flop.

 

[TP2000]

Okay gang, here's the Thursday box office with Preview showings for Mufasa and Sonic factored in. I'm afraid the king of the jungle is going to leave a photorealistic lump of coal in Bob Iger's stocking this year.

Christmas vacation is now upon us, and I've got a trip down to SoCal through New Year's planned, plus I gave Mr. Johnson and Connie (our pretty pre-show hostess in the polyester jumpsuit) the two weeks off so they could also be with their families. So I'm afraid updates from the TP2000 Global Command Center will be spotty at best as we track the first two weeks of Mufasa and the slow, arduous climb left to get Moana 2 to something shy of a Billion. I just worry that you'll worry if the updates and Deep Thoughts from me on box office don't come regularly the next two weeks.

But a very Merry Christmas to everyone here, and wishing you all a Boffo Box Office in 2025!

 

[Disney Irish]

Mufasa looking like a big time flop.

If it does it'll be one of the few for Disney this year. So I think all things considered with $5B in global box office Disney will consider that a win.

 

[BrianLo]

On its current trajectory, Moana 2 will likely pull in between $165 and $185 Million in profit for Disney. Compared to the $400 to $600 Million in profit some of Disney's other 21st century Princess movies have done, a profit of $175 Million owing to a low production budget seems like a modest success to me.

Thank you for indirectly answering my question, even if you sort of bounced away from it. So Despicable Me 4 isn’t modest. Moana 2 is at half the projected earnings (in your projections).

I’ll even go out of my way to agree with you. I wouldn’t be outrageously upset if we land where you think we are headed and continue to use the word modest. Looks like you have the global take petering out around 800M now.

Do you know what it costs to keep the Burbank studio complex running every year with 2,500 employees with upper-middle class SoCal salaries and full medical/dental benefits and subsidized dining and free Tesla charging? Me either. But it's got to be a LOT. The Burbank studio employees can vaporize that modest profit from Moana 2 in a matter of weeks.

Studio costs are the reason these movies have bloated budgets. This isn’t a double dipping scenario. It probably costs them 75-100M keeping everyone employed and working on the one movie release annually. Which is why a production outfit like WDAS can’t keep their annual films budgets below 200M these days.

As we stand Moana 2 is really just covering up last years loss. Though Frozen 2 was certainly good for many years. But there isn’t an additional loss, WDAS recouped their money to keep the lights on this year by merely breaking even. It’s the reason there’s some criticism of Illumination budgetary reporting practices.

 

[BrianLo]

re: Mufasa -- It's all going to depend on audience reception/word of mouth. If it manages to be this season's Wonka (which I wouldn't count on given the number of prominent animated/musical movies out right now) it could end up in similar $200m/$600m territory even with its projected opening.

Previous Sonic movies have been pretty front-loaded at the box office, so even with a stronger opening they could very well end up in similar places.

There’s also a lot more international strength expected from Mufasa, but that’s probably counteracted with Sonics budget. It might actually be a slightly close race.

 

[BrianLo]

But a very Merry Christmas to everyone here, and wishing you all a Boffo Box Office in 2025!

You too, safe travels and Merry Christmas.

 

[TP2000]

I’ll even go out of my way to agree with you. I wouldn’t be outrageously upset if we land where you think we are headed and continue to use the word modest. Looks like you have the global take petering out around 800M now.

I don't think it's quite that glum for Moana 2 the next few weeks.

In early December I said here that Moana 2 seemed to be on a trajectory to get somewhere between $850 and $950 Million. That really seemed to set a few folks here off, which led to the odd yet entertaining conversation about what "modest success" means and doesn't mean. I still see its trajectory will get it there, but will probably be on the lower end of $850 to $900 Million.

To your point about a promising two weeks ahead, I'm sure Moana 2 will break $800 Million thanks to the arrival of Christmas vacation pretty much everywhere but the Muslim world, who don't do much for global box office anyway.

I still maintain Moana 2 does not look to be on a trajectory to get to a Billion, let alone past it as some folks said.

Studio costs are the reason these movies have bloated budgets. This isn’t a double dipping scenario. It probably costs them 75-100M keeping everyone employed and working on the one movie release annually. Which is why a production outfit like WDAS can’t keep their annual films budgets below 200M these days.

The costs Disney racks up for these movies boggles my mind. Meanwhile, the Parks are running on shoestring budgets historically, there's not a single new ride under construction in any American park, and Disneyland's Christmas parade is over 30 years old. But go onto the studio lot in Burbank and they've got a sushi chef in the subsidized commissary and free Tesla charging ports while hundreds of studio "experts" pull in upper six figure incomes each year.

Walt made a point of publicly announcing in 1965 that he was spending the box office profits from Mary Poppins on Disneyland expansion that led to New Orleans Square, Pirates of the Caribbean and the New Tomorrowland.

Now imagine the shrieks of horror on the Burbank lot today if you told them the sushi chef was fired so Disneyland could afford a new Christmas parade.

You too, safe travels and Merry Christmas.

Thank you, my friend!

I look forward to more conversation and polite differences in opinion, and even some agreements, in 2025!

 

[Disney Irish]

I don't think it's quite that glum for Moana 2 the next few weeks.

In early December I said here that Moana 2 seemed to be on a trajectory to get somewhere between $850 and $950 Million. That really seemed to set a few folks here off, which led to the odd yet entertaining conversation about what "modest success" means and doesn't mean. I still see its trajectory will get it there, but will probably be on the lower end of $850 to $900 Million.

To your point about a promising two weeks ahead, I'm sure Moana 2 will break $800 Million thanks to the arrival of Christmas vacation pretty much everywhere but the Muslim world, who don't do much for global box office anyway.

I still maintain Moana 2 does not look to be on a trajectory to get to a Billion, let alone past it as some folks said.



The costs Disney racks up for these movies boggles my mind. Meanwhile, the Parks are running on shoestring budgets historically, there's not a single new ride under construction in any American park, and Disneyland's Christmas parade is over 30 years old. But go onto the studio lot in Burbank and they've got a sushi chef in the subsidized commissary and free Tesla charging ports while hundreds of studio "experts" pull in upper six figure incomes each year.

Walt made a point of publicly announcing in 1965 that he was spending the box office profits from Mary Poppins on Disneyland expansion that led to New Orleans Square, Pirates of the Caribbean and the New Tomorrowland.

Now imagine the shrieks of horror on the Burbank lot today if you told them the sushi chef was fired so Disneyland could afford a new Christmas parade.



Thank you, my friend!

I look forward to more conversation and polite differences in opinion, and even some agreements, in 2025!

The world, and Hollywood in general, has changed a lot in the 60 years since Walt's day. Many speculation has been made about what Walt would do now if in this business climate, but I'm sure that things wouldn't be like they were back then as business practices in general is different. I think its best to come to terms with the fact that Parks and Studios are run differently today and what was done 60 years ago won't be done again, if you can't then why be here.

We'll see how things progress with Moana 2 over the next few weeks and month, and hopefully by the end of its run you'll upgrade it in your personal tally record from a "moderate success" to a "financial hit".

And despite differences I hope you have a great holiday and new years too.

 

[Disney Irish]

there's not a single new ride under construction in any American park

I'd like to remind you that starting next month DCA will begin construction on the, not one, but two new attractions coming to Avengers Campus. Also don't know if you count it as an attraction but the Walt AA show is currently under construction in DL and opening in May.

So there is stuff going on in the American parks right now.

 

[coffeefan]

Good start. Some may say, things are looking up!

 

[Disney Irish]

Good start. Some may say, things are looking up!

Not to be a downer but I wouldn't read too much into that, as BatmanVsSuperman got over 250M views also, and Justice League got over 200M views, and look how they turned out.

 

[BrianLo]

Not to be a downer but I wouldn't read too much into that, as BatmanVsSuperman got over 250M views also, and Justice League got over 200M views, and look how they turned out.

Batman v Superman though had a pretty solid opening. I do think initial trailer views has some intent correlation… or at least interest. It’s up for studios to convert.

On this one I think it actually looks pretty good, Sorry to the Snyder Bros, but that tonal universe just never really worked, especially for Superman.

 

[Disney Irish]

Batman v Superman though had a pretty solid opening. I do think initial trailer views has some intent correlation… or at least interest. It’s up for studios to convert.

On this one I think it actually looks pretty good, Sorry to the Snyder Bros, but that tonal universe just never really worked, especially for Superman.

I'm still not sold on the look of Superman in this one, Cavill to me had the look Corenswet so far doesn't to me. Maybe its because he doesn't look big and imposing like I think Superman should, so we'll see how he looks when its released.

 

[Tony the Tigger]

I'm still not sold on the look of Superman in this one, Cavill to me had the look Corenswet so far doesn't to me. Maybe its because he doesn't look big and imposing like I think Superman should, so we'll see how he looks when its released.

I think he looks like a younger Cavill.

 

[MisterPenguin]

Disney will cross $5B globally after this weekend, having already crossed $2B domestically -

Yeah, but did they do so *modestly*?