Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[BrianLo]

Moana 2 = $135 Million profit so far
Despicable Me 4 = $335 Million profit
Kung Fu Panda 4 = $145 Million profit
Garfield = $30 Million profit

Choosing from that list, I'd rather be the studio exec who approved Despicable Me 4, wouldn't you?

I think you’ll be modestly surprised. Let’s swing back around to this one in the Spring. When both Moana finishes running and Deadline unveils the odd budgeting to marketing practices Illumination films see. I suspect Moana 2 will ultimately land 3rd in their final tally’s, but it’s going to be a close race.

I guess for clarification, do you consider DM4 to be ‘modest’? That will better help me understand what you feel that line is.

 

[Tha Realest]

Who would’ve imagined we’d be in a place where a sequel to Sonic is more critically lauded than a mainline Disney Princess film?

 

[TalkingHead]

Could speculate that Mufasa would’ve made more if Moana 2 hadn’t been released a month ago. Would also love to know how much overlap there is between Moana and Sonic audiences apart from AMC/Regal subscribers.

Seems conceivable that some Disney family audiences forked over, what, $100 for tickets and concessions for Moana and decided to skip Mufasa.

 

[Disney Irish]

Disney will cross $5B globally after this weekend, having already crossed $2B domestically -

Alan Bergman, Co-Chairman, Disney Entertainment, on the Record-Breaking Year for The Walt Disney Studios - The Walt Disney Company

We spoke with Alan Bergman, co-chairman, Disney Entertainment, to learn more about Disney’s record year, the strategies behind the successes, and what audiences can expect from The Walt Disney Studios in 2025.

thewaltdisneycompany.com

This will have Disney ending 2024 as the undisputed top studio both domestically and globally, back on top where they belong.

 

[TP2000]

While we await the Thursday box office numbers previewing how this weekend, and perhaps all of Christmas vacation, will be shaping up...

Who would’ve imagined we’d be in a place where a sequel to Sonic is more critically lauded than a mainline Disney Princess film?

Forget Moana 2, this screenshot below taken just now doesn't seem to bode well for Mufasa!

I'm guessing the Sonic movie is aimed at boys, perhaps even up to the young men demographic who grew up with that franchise? While Moana 2 is obviously a Princess movie, and Mufasa would seem to be... maybe just a dud with everyone?

 

[TP2000]

Yeah I don't get where TP2000 is coming from, besides possibly trolling. I REALLY don't like Moana 2 and what its success means for the future of Disney animation, but even I can't deny it's a major success from a financial perspective.

With all due respect, and because I always enjoy your perspective, using the word "modest" correctly in a sentence within the proper context of that sentence and subject does not equate to "trolling".

The data doesn't seem to show Moana 2 as a "major success" at the box office. It seems to be a "modest success", and it's trendline is heading towards flatlining rather quickly. Moana 2 has had weak legs domestically and globally since the end of Thanksgiving weekend.

Luckily, it had a very low (for Burbank) production budget because it was only supposed to be a TV show, not a big tentpole movie for Thanksgiving. So it got to profitability by its third week in theaters, even with its weak legs.

As of the box office for Wednesday, December 19th, here's what its profit looks like....

Moana 2: Production $150, Marketing $75, Domestic Take $206, Overseas Take $152 = $133 Million and counting

On its current trajectory, Moana 2 will likely pull in between $165 and $185 Million in profit for Disney. Compared to the $400 to $600 Million in profit some of Disney's other 21st century Princess movies have done, a profit of $175 Million owing to a low production budget seems like a modest success to me.

Do you know what it costs to keep the Burbank studio complex running every year with 2,500 employees with upper-middle class SoCal salaries and full medical/dental benefits and subsidized dining and free Tesla charging? Me either. But it's got to be a LOT. The Burbank studio employees can vaporize that modest profit from Moana 2 in a matter of weeks.

Moana 2 (2024) - Financial Information

Financial analysis of Moana 2 (2024) including budget, domestic and international box office gross, DVD and Blu-ray sales reports, total earnings and profitability.

thenumbers.com

 

[TalkingHead]

With all due respect, and because I always enjoy your perspective, using the word "modest" correctly in a sentence within the proper context of that sentence and subject does not equate to "trolling".

The data doesn't seem to show Moana 2 as a "major success" at the box office. It seems to be a "modest success", and it's trendline is heading towards flatlining rather quickly. Moana 2 has had weak legs domestically and globally since the end of Thanksgiving weekend.

Luckily, it had a very low (for Burbank) production budget because it was only supposed to be a TV show, not a big tentpole movie for Thanksgiving. So it got to profitability by its third week in theaters, even with its weak legs.

As of the box office for Wednesday, December 19th, here's what its profit looks like....

Moana 2: Production $150, Marketing $75, Domestic Take $206, Overseas Take $152 = $133 Million and counting

On its current trajectory, Moana 2 will likely pull in between $165 and $185 Million in profit for Disney. Compared to the $400 to $600 Million in profit some of Disney's other 21st century Princess movies have done, a profit of $175 Million owing to a low production budget seems like a modest success to me.

Do you know what it costs to keep the Burbank studio complex running every year with 2,500 employees with upper-middle class SoCal salaries and full medical/dental benefits and subsidized dining and free Tesla charging? Me either. But it's got to be a LOT. The Burbank studio employees can vaporize that modest profit from Moana 2 in a matter of weeks.

View attachment 831683

Moana 2 (2024) - Financial Information

Financial analysis of Moana 2 (2024) including budget, domestic and international box office gross, DVD and Blu-ray sales reports, total earnings and profitability.

thenumbers.com

It’s currently the fourth highest grossing film of the year with the worldwide gross. Isn’t that better than modest?

 

[TP2000]

It’s currently the fourth highest grossing film of the year with the worldwide gross. Isn’t that better than modest?

If that nets you only $133 Million in profit and counting and you are Disney, then the box office success for that movie seems modest to me. Perhaps the confusion comes from the fact I'm so focused on Disney, and I don't consider small indy studio movies? Comparing it to Poor Things, then Moana 2 is a huge hit, for example. But compared to other Princess movies...

When Frozen II pulled in $540 Million in profit for Burbank, $133 Million heading towards $175 Million seems modest.

To your very valid point, for the calendar year thus far, Moana 2 is in the top 5 of global movies for their box office haul. But compared to the top two movies on that list, that were both from The Walt Disney Company and its stable of flagship studios, Moana 2 is a modest success compared to the other two's bigger success. Thank goodness they only spent $150 Million on Moana 2, or else it wouldn't crack $100 Million in profit.

Moana 2 is on track to do less than half the global box office of Inside Out 2. That seems the definition of "modest" to me.

 

[TalkingHead]

If that nets you only $133 Million in profit and counting and you are Disney, then the box office success for that movie seems modest to me. Perhaps the confusion comes from the fact I'm so focused on Disney, and I don't consider small indy studio movies? Comparing it to Poor Things, then Moana 2 is a huge hit, for example. But compared to other Princess movies...

When Frozen II pulled in $540 Million in profit for Burbank, $133 Million heading towards $175 Million seems modest.

To your very valid point, for the calendar year thus far, Moana 2 is in the top 5 of global movies for their box office haul. But compared to the top two movies on that list, that were both from The Walt Disney Company and its stable of flagship studios, Moana 2 is a modest success compared to the other two's bigger success. Thank goodness they only spent $150 Million on Moana 2, or else it wouldn't crack $100 Million in profit.

Moana 2 is on track to do less than half the global box office of Inside Out 2. That seems the definition of "modest" to me.

View attachment 831687

Assuming your number is correct, how many other movies this year have netted $133 million profit?

 

[Disney Irish]

If that nets you only $133 Million in profit and counting and you are Disney, then the box office success for that movie seems modest to me. Perhaps the confusion comes from the fact I'm so focused on Disney, and I don't consider small indy studio movies? Comparing it to Poor Things, then Moana 2 is a huge hit, for example. But compared to other Princess movies...

When Frozen II pulled in $540 Million in profit for Burbank, $133 Million heading towards $175 Million seems modest.

To your very valid point, for the calendar year thus far, Moana 2 is in the top 5 of global movies for their box office haul. But compared to the top two movies on that list, that were both from The Walt Disney Company and its stable of flagship studios, Moana 2 is a modest success compared to the other two's bigger success. Thank goodness they only spent $150 Million on Moana 2, or else it wouldn't crack $100 Million in profit.

Moana 2 is on track to do less than half the global box office of Inside Out 2. That seems the definition of "modest" to me.

View attachment 831687

And this shows why things continue to be so messed up in terms of expectations. The moment that making over $100M profit on a movie is considered "modest" we know that we need a major reset again. I thought we had this reset after the pandemic, but guess not.

Also who else is calling Moana's box office "modest" besides you? Anyone in the trades? Any reviewer? Any one anywhere?

And for the record I don't think Disney is upset and calling it "modest" that Moana 2 has made over $100M in profit, NOT. ONE. BIT.

 

[TP2000]

And this shows why things continue to be so messed up in terms of expectations. The moment that making over $100M profit on a movie is considered "modest" we know that we need a major reset again. I thought we had this reset after the pandemic, but guess not.

Also who else is calling Moana's box office "modest" besides you? Anyone in the trades? Any reviewer? Any one anywhere?

I have no idea if anyone else has used my forbidden and very naughty phrase "modest success" to describe Moana 2's $133 Million and counting profit.

Instead, I just went and Googled Moana 2 news items and found this exciting prediction from a month ago... Moana 2 will surprass Inside Out 2 at the box office. (Spoiler Alert: Moana 2 will barely get half the box office of Inside Out 2)

"Some people in the know are telling me that 'Moana 2' could eclipse and outshine even the success of 'Inside Out 2,'" AMC CEO Adam Aron recently said during a quarterly earnings call.

Moana 2 Might Pull An Inside Out 2 At The Box Office - SlashFilm

Not only will Moana 2 deliver the goods at the box office, but it may also follow Inside Out 2 in becoming a smash-hit for Disney.

www.slashfilm.com

 

[TalkingHead]

"Some people in the know are telling me that 'Moana 2' could eclipse and outshine even the success of 'Inside Out 2,'" AMC CEO Adam Aron recently said during a quarterly earnings call.

Well, he’s an egregious huckster who you shouldn’t trust to tell you the color of the sky.

 

[Disney Irish]

I have no idea if anyone has used the forbidden phrase "modest success" to describe Moana 2's $133 Million and counting profit.

I just went and Googled Moana 2 news items and found this exciting prediction from a month ago... Moana 2 will surprass Inside Out 2 at the box office. (Spoiler Alert: Moana 2 will barely get half the box office of Inside Out 2)

"Some people in the know are telling me that 'Moana 2' could eclipse and outshine even the success of 'Inside Out 2,'" AMC CEO Adam Aron recently said during a quarterly earnings call.

Moana 2 Might Pull An Inside Out 2 At The Box Office - SlashFilm

Not only will Moana 2 deliver the goods at the box office, but it may also follow Inside Out 2 in becoming a smash-hit for Disney.

www.slashfilm.com

And? Just because that was what some exhibitor expected over a month ago doesn't make it "modest" now.

Also the term is not forbidden when used correctly, but there is no way someone would consider a movie making over $100M profit as being modest on a $150M budget. Every Studio on the planet would LOVE that kind of return.

 

[TP2000]

Well, he’s an egregious huckster who you shouldn’t trust to tell you the color of the sky.

I have no idea who he is, other than knowing where my local AMC theater is, but I'll trust you.

 

[Disney Irish]

Well, he’s an egregious huckster who you shouldn’t trust to tell you the color of the sky.

Well I wouldn't call him a huckster, but he sure is out there in terms of how he runs AMC.

 

[TP2000]

While we mourn the loss of proper vocabulary by daring to use the phrase "modest success" for Princess movies, here's a fun new topic to cheer us up again...

The production budgets for Sonic vs. Mufasa. Apparently Disney spent $200 Million on Mufasa, which seems par for the course for them. Paramount spent notably less on Sonic 3, at $122 Million. In Thursday previews, Sonic 3 did $6.5 Million domestically, and Mufasa did about half that even though Mufasa has 350 more theaters nationwide.

Which one gets to profitability first? Or, better question, does Mufasa stand a chance to break even?

 

[brideck]

re: Mufasa -- It's all going to depend on audience reception/word of mouth. If it manages to be this season's Wonka (which I wouldn't count on given the number of prominent animated/musical movies out right now) it could end up in similar $200m/$600m territory even with its projected opening.

Previous Sonic movies have been pretty front-loaded at the box office, so even with a stronger opening they could very well end up in similar places.

 

[Vegas Disney Fan]

Not to re-open a can of worms but I thought the general consensus was a 2.5 times multiplayer to break even… wouldn’t that currently put Moana 2 at a $350 million profit?

To me the semantics of “moderate” success really depends on expectations, if a movie was expected to make a billion in profit and “only” made $250 million I’d call it a moderate success despite being wildly profitable, if it was expected to lose $200 million and “only” lost $25 million I’d also call it a moderate success based on expectations, even though it lost money.

I could see the argument for both sides with Moana 2, I don’t think anyone will argue it’s not a success, it’s just a matter of if you think it met expectations.

 

[Disney Irish]

Not to re-open a can of worms but I thought the general consensus was a 2.5 times multiplayer to break even… wouldn’t that currently put Moana 2 at a $350 million profit?

I got tired of correcting that over and over, and only bring it up when someone tries to label something as losing money when its clearly already in profit town.

To me the semantics of “moderate” success really depends on expectations, if a movie was expected to make a billion in profit and “only” made $250 million I’d call it a moderate success despite being wildly profitable, if it was expected to lose $200 million and “only” lost $25 million I’d also call it a moderate success based on expectations, even though it lost money.

I could see the argument for both sides with Moana 2, I don’t think anyone will argue it’s not a success, it’s just a matter of if you think it met expectations.

Its why putting this whole think into perspective is important. And why labeling something before its done is silly.

 

[Animaniac93-98]

Current prediction for the domestic weekend is $70 million for Sonic, $35 million for Mufasa