Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

brideck

Well-Known Member
Interesting piece from Variety this morning on box office numbers -- https://variety.com/2024/film/news/box-office-opening-weekend-why-does-it-matter-1236033313/

It reiterates the 2.5x profitability rule:
"So the rule of thumb is that studios need movies to gross 2.5 times their production budgets to climb out of the red."

And even suggests that this number is an overestimate for some notable recent releases:
"“The Fall Guy” cost $140 million and has grossed $165 million worldwide. But sources suggest it has to reach $275 million-$300 million to turn a profit. The Warner Bros. sci-fi prequel “Furiosa,” which carries a $168 million price tag, has generated $144 million. Yet insiders say it requires roughly $350 million to $375 million to get into the black. (A Warner Bros. spokesperson disputes this, saying “Furiosa” has a lower breakeven point.)"

Those statements would mean that The Fall Guy and Furiosa only need ~2.2x to be profitable and Warner even disputes that the Furiosa number is too high at that level.
 

BrianLo

Well-Known Member
Those statements would mean that The Fall Guy and Furiosa only need ~2.2x to be profitable and Warner even disputes that the Furiosa number is too high at that level.

Thanks, when I ran the numbers comparing all of Disney’s output this rang true. Largely movies were for sure profitable at 2.5 and there’s a large grey zone around 2.2+. That’s why I sort of snuck Apes into the profitability band the other day when it crossed 2.3. What we know is they almost for sure are profitable post theatrically at 2.5X and a typical tentpole almost for sure isn’t under 2X.

It’s also why you had Disney/other sources indicating profitability for the likes of Elemental or Mermaid earlier than people felt they should have been.

Some notable exceptions in the opposite extreme are Illumination/Dreamworks that save money in budgets, but have ‘normal’ marketing spends compared to Disney animated films. These films really need to push towards the more hardy 3X as was being used here last year. They’ll often spend the same in marketing as the film costs, which works well for them. Ultimately they still need to make a lot less than the average Disney animated budget in actual numbers thanks to that upfront savings.


As an aside I’m so thankful this article is about Paramount, Universal and WB so the usual impropriety talking point can’t be trotted out.
 
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Disney Irish

Premium Member
Sony is like the anti-Disney at this point
This doesn't mean much to me, its only 35 theaters. Alamo is considered more a niche local chain rather than a nationwide chain like Regal or AMC.

It would be like if Disney expanded the El Capitan theater into a few more cities.
 

TalkingHead

Well-Known Member
This doesn't mean much to me, its only 35 theaters. Alamo is considered more a niche local chain rather than a nationwide chain like Regal or AMC.

It would be like if Disney expanded the El Capitan theater into a few more cities.
Obviously wouldn’t do that when you’ve got all your eggs in the streaming subs basket. Who’s to say the Alamo brand won’t be expanded? If a studio believes there’s any money in the future of theatrical, it’s a smart move.
 

Disney Irish

Premium Member
Obviously wouldn’t do that when you’ve got all your eggs in the streaming subs basket. Who’s to say the Alamo brand won’t be expanded? If a studio believes there’s any money in the future of theatrical, it’s a smart move.
As I understand it Alamo was on the verge of closing all their theaters later this year. So Sony got a deal for pennies on the dollar. If that day comes when Sony expands Alamo then I'll believe it. But until then this just seems like a Studio trying to prevent a niche exhibitor from closing rather than some major future expansion plan.
 

brideck

Well-Known Member
This doesn't mean much to me, its only 35 theaters. Alamo is considered more a niche local chain rather than a nationwide chain like Regal or AMC.

It would be like if Disney expanded the El Capitan theater into a few more cities.

I wonder if they'll reopen the ~5 theaters that just closed a week ago or just leave that be. We lost ours in that culling, although I've never been there -- it's a good 30 mins away.
 

DKampy

Well-Known Member
Sony is like the anti-Disney at this point
It’s not just Disney Sony is pretty much the Anti- every other studio… Sony has said from day one… they have no interest in streaming… theatrical is their number one priority… now they are putting their money where their mouth is
 

Tha Realest

Well-Known Member
Well. Of the two Avengers films scheduled, it seems they are recalibrating how those are going to look. Of the Avengers lineup, who’s left? Stark, Black Widow, Maximoff dead. Black Panther is undergoing a rejuvenation and they seem to have moved on for now. Parker’s had his existence mind-wiped by the rest of the universe. Vision doesn’t remember who he was.

That leaves…goofy Hulk, Thor (maybe), Hawkeye, Captain America, and the stars of Quantumania and The Marvels. Not exactly a sure fire hit for a lineup.

I like the choice for the FF, but there’s never been a good FF film. The troubled and rebooted production for Blade worries me.
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Disney Irish

Premium Member
Man put this movie out of it's misery. I can't imagine it was designed to be of vital importance to the greater MCU.
Well it was suppose to lead into a Midnight Sons movie, so don't know how critical it is if that is still happening. I suppose they could just go right into Midnight Sons instead.
 

Animaniac93-98

Well-Known Member
And even suggests that this number is an overestimate for some notable recent releases:
"“The Fall Guy” cost $140 million and has grossed $165 million worldwide. But sources suggest it has to reach $275 million-$300 million to turn a profit.

Deadline had reported that after marketing costs, The Fall Guy was in the $225 million to $240 million range.

That would put the number it needs to gross to reach profitability much higher

Regardless, it's a major money loser for Universal which I was not expecting after the pre-release hype
 

BrianLo

Well-Known Member
Deadline had reported that after marketing costs, The Fall Guy was in the $225 million to $240 million range.

That would put the number it needs to gross to reach profitability much higher

Regardless, it's a major money loser for Universal which I was not expecting after the pre-release hype

Variety is referring to post theatrical profitability. Sort of what it needs to make money in the first year.

Initial PVOD/home revenue/streaming licensing fees seem to be heavily correlated to how well a movie does financially upfront. So that's why there is a bit of a range for the box office, that's much lower than the actual total film costs upfront. Usually double the revenue is made in the back end when a movie does quite poorly, and it can shrink to about 50% of the box office gross for the huge blockbusters. It does provide a lot of upside to movies generally, but they still have to do something upfront.

A film like the Flash last year may have taken home 115 million in box office revenue, but in the back end there was 50 million in home entertainment and 85 million in TV and streaming rights.
 

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