Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[Disney Irish]

I live in a midwestern burg without bus stops, bus wraps, etc. where a lot of movies seem to find room for ads these days, if that's the kind of thing you mean.

Nope, I mean other type of ads, from billboards to pre-roll trailers. I’ve seen it advertised everywhere for the past month near me. I was even at a local mall a few weeks ago and there was a kiosk ad on display. This doesn’t even include ads I’ve seen on ABC itself.

 

[DKampy]

Plus the deadly box office landscape that only Sony has really escaped so far.

What is interesting here is Sony is the one studio that is still fully committed to theatrical with absolutely no interest in streaming

 

[Minnesota disney fan]

Hiya, gang! It was a lazy weekend for me where I'm just puttering around the house mostly, and it was a fairly lazy early summer weekend at the Box Office too.

I guess we're just sort of waiting for Inside Out 2 later this month to really get some Disney content going at the box office. Apes 9 came in 5th place this weekend.

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The Numbers - Weekend Box Office Chart for August 2, 2024

Weekend Domestic Box Office Chart for the weekend of August 2, 2024

www.the-numbers.com

I'm really surprised to see The Lord of the Rings movies out on theatre again!!! That just seems odd to me since it's been out a while on DVD, which I have the whole series of LOtR. Are they thinking of a new one now?

 

[Tha Realest]

Even that's not working; a lot of people didn't even know Wish existed until the Disney+ drop and they advertised heavily on social media platforms.

huh? The film was extensively marketed. Do you honestly think they spent less on advertising for the box office release than they did on D+?

 

[Miss Rori]

No, I believe they spent a lot on marketing the theatrical release of Wish, particularly on social media but also on TV, and it just didn't reach people regardless. (Although it's possible people saw it but didn't realize it was a theatrical movie, and not a streaming-only title?) But then, they never found a real "hook" with that movie to attract viewers.

 

[TP2000]

I live in a midwestern burg without bus stops, bus wraps, etc. where a lot of movies seem to find room for ads these days, if that's the kind of thing you mean.

I live in a small Southwest city with very few bus stops, and we have very few billboards around town, and I kept seeing Inside Out 2 commercials on my YouTube TV viewings constantly starting about two weeks ago. I rarely watch network TV, but all the ads I've seen for Inside Out 2 were on YouTube.

But I've seen the commercials for so long, that I forgot it opens this Friday. I thought we had another couple of weeks.

My famous Spidey Sense on what the kids are into (as a rapidly aging gay man who thinks every child should attend mandatory etiquette classes and only speak when spoken to) is not sensing a huge groundswell of pop culture interest in it yet, but things could change this week when the social media kicks in. I'll eavesdrop on the kids next door when they are on their trampoline and bouncing above the fence line, if I need to. Let me know.

 

[LSLS]

Dunno, even if I didn't follow this stuff closely it seems to be advertised fairly well at least around me. But then again I live in a fairly large metro area so maybe I just see more advertisements then the regular person.

I've started seeing a few ads here and there. I will say I saw one last week and was completely shocked it was only two weeks away. BUT, I know my wife is beyond excited for this one, so this is going to be a family event (first family movie since Mario for us).

 

[Phroobar]

I'm really surprised to see The Lord of the Rings movies out on theatre again!!! That just seems odd to me since it's been out a while on DVD, which I have the whole series of LOtR. Are they thinking of a new one now?

Yes. Yes there is.

Theaters show old movies all the time. Heck, the Never Ending Story 40th Anniversary is opening tomorrow. Another week after that my theater is showing Spirited Away. I think in July the Muppet Movie anniversary is being shown.

 

[BrianLo]

We’ll have to see if trailer views are strictly just an internet phenomenon (as in its a growing proportion of how people view trailers even with waning interest). But there has been a lot of views for both Inside Out 2 and Deadpool and now subsequently Moana 2.

Either that’s a good indicator or it’s just a passing curiosity. But I’d assume it indicates some form of strong interest?

I’m always a bit dubious in how Disney presents the ‘stats’ because they glom onto a good way of presenting it. But Inside Out 2 had the best animated trailer debut (ahead of Frozen 2 - so not just Pixar).

I think Deadpool 3 straight has the biggest trailer launch of all time? Ahead of Spider-Man No Way Home. Though it also includes Super Bowl.

Then Moana one ups Inside out 2 with 178 v 157 million views.

Now Disney also presented Wish as the ‘most watched since Frozen 2’. Which turns out was a dubious way of presenting its 66.5 million trailer view launch.

 

[DKampy]

Besides the budget should have been a bit lowered… IF is not doing too bad…it will cross 100 million… which even before the pandemic if an original film did great the most it could do was just over 100 million domestically

Also I think people had too high of expectations for Fall Guy… especially since it took that first weekend of may which is normally the Kick off to summer…which was suppose to be Deadpool…Fall Guy had large expectations that it would not have had if it were to open in it’s original March weekend… it’s still a disappointment but I also believe it would of hit that 100 million threshold for an original movie if it did not have it’s legs cut off with PVOD… it’s been hanging in there every week… I know it’s based on an old TV show… but it is barely remember today… so it is basically an original film to most

 

[Wendy Pleakley]

Besides the budget should have been a bit lowered… IF is not doing too bad…it will cross 100 million… which even before the pandemic if an original film did great the most it could do was just over 100 million domestically

Also I think people had too high of expectations for Fall Guy… especially since it took that first weekend of may which is normally the Kick off to summer…which was suppose to be Deadpool…Fall Guy had large expectations that it would not have had if it were to open in it’s original March weekend… it’s still a disappointment but I also believe it would of hit that 100 million threshold for an original movie if it did not have it’s legs cut off with PVOD… it’s been hanging in there every week… I know it’s based on an old TV show… but it is barely remember today… so it is basically an original film to most

I don't think PVOD impacts theatrical performance. At least, it doesn't change a movie's trajectory during release.

Popular movies like Wonka come to home viewing quickly and still maintain their expected theatrical performance.

Most movies drop off 30-50% week to week. In rare cases, a movie that has great word of mouth or whatever, will have above average staying power.

In the case of Fall Guy, it didn't make any sort of comeback in week two and at that point it's fate is pretty much set.

I assume bringing it to PVOD super quickly is beneficial, otherwise studios wouldn't regularly do it. People are more enthusiastic about buying or renting a movie at a premium price because it's so close to the theatrical window. It's a more appealing product.

There's a reason the iTunes store highlights movie rentals and purchases as being currently in theaters, "bring the theater home" is a marketing tagline now.

Whether or not the shortened time between theater and home is having an impact in general, is the bigger question IMO.

 

[Phroobar]

Then there is Five Nights at Freddie's that was released on both streaming and theatrically on the same day and made close to $300million on a $20million budget.

 

[Disney Irish]

Then there is Five Nights at Freddie's that was released on both streaming and theatrically on the same day and made close to $300million on a $20million budget.

A streaming service that was toward the bottom of the sub counts at the time, ie it didn't move the needle very much.

 

[Phroobar]

A streaming service that was toward the bottom of the sub counts at the time, ie it didn't move the needle very much.

It isn't at the bottom anymore

 

[Disney Irish]

It isn't at the bottom anymore

Still isn’t toward the top, it’s like #11.

 

[Animaniac93-98]

I see Disney took my suggestion to do a 30th anniversary re-release of Lion King this summer.

 

[brideck]

Interesting piece from Variety this morning on box office numbers -- https://variety.com/2024/film/news/box-office-opening-weekend-why-does-it-matter-1236033313/

It reiterates the 2.5x profitability rule:
"So the rule of thumb is that studios need movies to gross 2.5 times their production budgets to climb out of the red."

And even suggests that this number is an overestimate for some notable recent releases:
"“The Fall Guy” cost $140 million and has grossed $165 million worldwide. But sources suggest it has to reach $275 million-$300 million to turn a profit. The Warner Bros. sci-fi prequel “Furiosa,” which carries a $168 million price tag, has generated $144 million. Yet insiders say it requires roughly $350 million to $375 million to get into the black. (A Warner Bros. spokesperson disputes this, saying “Furiosa” has a lower breakeven point.)"

Those statements would mean that The Fall Guy and Furiosa only need ~2.2x to be profitable and Warner even disputes that the Furiosa number is too high at that level.

 

[BrianLo]

Those statements would mean that The Fall Guy and Furiosa only need ~2.2x to be profitable and Warner even disputes that the Furiosa number is too high at that level.

Thanks, when I ran the numbers comparing all of Disney’s output this rang true. Largely movies were for sure profitable at 2.5 and there’s a large grey zone around 2.2+. That’s why I sort of snuck Apes into the profitability band the other day when it crossed 2.3. What we know is they almost for sure are profitable post theatrically at 2.5X and a typical tentpole almost for sure isn’t under 2X.

It’s also why you had Disney/other sources indicating profitability for the likes of Elemental or Mermaid earlier than people felt they should have been.

Some notable exceptions in the opposite extreme are Illumination/Dreamworks that save money in budgets, but have ‘normal’ marketing spends compared to Disney animated films. These films really need to push towards the more hardy 3X as was being used here last year. They’ll often spend the same in marketing as the film costs, which works well for them. Ultimately they still need to make a lot less than the average Disney animated budget in actual numbers thanks to that upfront savings.


As an aside I’m so thankful this article is about Paramount, Universal and WB so the usual impropriety talking point can’t be trotted out.

 

[TalkingHead]

Sony Pictures Buys Alamo Drafthouse

Alamo Drafthouse Cinemas has sold to Sony Pictures Entertainment but will continue to operate its theaters under the brand name

variety.com

Sony is like the anti-Disney at this point

 

[Disney Irish]

Sony Pictures Buys Alamo Drafthouse

Alamo Drafthouse Cinemas has sold to Sony Pictures Entertainment but will continue to operate its theaters under the brand name

variety.com

Sony is like the anti-Disney at this point

This doesn't mean much to me, its only 35 theaters. Alamo is considered more a niche local chain rather than a nationwide chain like Regal or AMC.

It would be like if Disney expanded the El Capitan theater into a few more cities.