Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[TalkingHead]

This doesn't mean much to me, its only 35 theaters. Alamo is considered more a niche local chain rather than a nationwide chain like Regal or AMC.

It would be like if Disney expanded the El Capitan theater into a few more cities.

Obviously wouldn’t do that when you’ve got all your eggs in the streaming subs basket. Who’s to say the Alamo brand won’t be expanded? If a studio believes there’s any money in the future of theatrical, it’s a smart move.

 

[Disney Irish]

Obviously wouldn’t do that when you’ve got all your eggs in the streaming subs basket. Who’s to say the Alamo brand won’t be expanded? If a studio believes there’s any money in the future of theatrical, it’s a smart move.

As I understand it Alamo was on the verge of closing all their theaters later this year. So Sony got a deal for pennies on the dollar. If that day comes when Sony expands Alamo then I'll believe it. But until then this just seems like a Studio trying to prevent a niche exhibitor from closing rather than some major future expansion plan.

 

[brideck]

This doesn't mean much to me, its only 35 theaters. Alamo is considered more a niche local chain rather than a nationwide chain like Regal or AMC.

It would be like if Disney expanded the El Capitan theater into a few more cities.

I wonder if they'll reopen the ~5 theaters that just closed a week ago or just leave that be. We lost ours in that culling, although I've never been there -- it's a good 30 mins away.

 

[DKampy]

Sony Pictures Buys Alamo Drafthouse

Alamo Drafthouse Cinemas has sold to Sony Pictures Entertainment but will continue to operate its theaters under the brand name

variety.com

Sony is like the anti-Disney at this point

It’s not just Disney Sony is pretty much the Anti- every other studio… Sony has said from day one… they have no interest in streaming… theatrical is their number one priority… now they are putting their money where their mouth is

 

[Disney Analyst]

So what’s everyone thinking? Will Inside Out 2 hit $85m+, to become the best opening weekend of 2024?

 

[DKampy]

So what’s everyone thinking? Will Inside Out 2 hit $85m+, to become the best opening weekend of 2024?

I think the outlook is good…I feel there is an excitement in the air for Inside Out 2… with the good scores on Rotten Tomatoes…that should help carry it through the weekend

 

[Tha Realest]

Well. Of the two Avengers films scheduled, it seems they are recalibrating how those are going to look. Of the Avengers lineup, who’s left? Stark, Black Widow, Maximoff dead. Black Panther is undergoing a rejuvenation and they seem to have moved on for now. Parker’s had his existence mind-wiped by the rest of the universe. Vision doesn’t remember who he was.

That leaves…goofy Hulk, Thor (maybe), Hawkeye, Captain America, and the stars of Quantumania and The Marvels. Not exactly a sure fire hit for a lineup.

I like the choice for the FF, but there’s never been a good FF film. The troubled and rebooted production for Blade worries me.

 

[LSLS]

Man put this movie out of it's misery. I can't imagine it was designed to be of vital importance to the greater MCU.

 

[Disney Irish]

Man put this movie out of it's misery. I can't imagine it was designed to be of vital importance to the greater MCU.

Well it was suppose to lead into a Midnight Sons movie, so don't know how critical it is if that is still happening. I suppose they could just go right into Midnight Sons instead.

 

[Animaniac93-98]

And even suggests that this number is an overestimate for some notable recent releases:
"“The Fall Guy” cost $140 million and has grossed $165 million worldwide. But sources suggest it has to reach $275 million-$300 million to turn a profit.

Deadline had reported that after marketing costs, The Fall Guy was in the $225 million to $240 million range.

That would put the number it needs to gross to reach profitability much higher

Regardless, it's a major money loser for Universal which I was not expecting after the pre-release hype

 

[Disney Analyst]

 

[MagicMouseFan]

It should be a huge hit.
The film is wise enough to keep going with what the original film did so well.

 

[BrianLo]

Deadline had reported that after marketing costs, The Fall Guy was in the $225 million to $240 million range.

That would put the number it needs to gross to reach profitability much higher

Regardless, it's a major money loser for Universal which I was not expecting after the pre-release hype

Variety is referring to post theatrical profitability. Sort of what it needs to make money in the first year.

Initial PVOD/home revenue/streaming licensing fees seem to be heavily correlated to how well a movie does financially upfront. So that's why there is a bit of a range for the box office, that's much lower than the actual total film costs upfront. Usually double the revenue is made in the back end when a movie does quite poorly, and it can shrink to about 50% of the box office gross for the huge blockbusters. It does provide a lot of upside to movies generally, but they still have to do something upfront.

A film like the Flash last year may have taken home 115 million in box office revenue, but in the back end there was 50 million in home entertainment and 85 million in TV and streaming rights.

 

[BrianLo]

South Korea is certainly a good news story. Elemental was absolutely carried by that market. Inside Out 2 could have a ton of upside there.

Again... Disney... pay attention to South Korea. A part of your P&R is built to be moved around the world for example.

 

[Disney Analyst]

South Korea is certainly a good news story. Elemental was absolutely carried by that market. Inside Out 2 could have a ton of upside there.

Again... Disney... pay attention to South Korea. A part of your P&R is built to be moved around the world for example.

I think this movie is a destined hit!

 

[MagicMouseFan]

South Korea is certainly a good news story. Elemental was absolutely carried by that market. Inside Out 2 could have a ton of upside there.

Again... Disney... pay attention to South Korea. A part of your P&R is built to be moved around the world for example.

I don’t think Inside Out has anything to worry about. It will be very successful.

 

[Disney Analyst]

Woah wait what?





Is this person predicting a $225m+ global opening?

 

[MagicMouseFan]

Audience knows what it likes. This movie will be a hit.

 

[Disney Irish]

Woah wait what?





Is this person predicting a $225m+ global opening?

That would certainly make it one of the best if not the best opening of 2024, and put it close to if not in top 5 since the pandemic.

Deadpool and Wolverine opening will now be even more interesting.

 

[BrianLo]

I think we can adjust the odds to 99.99:0.01 of it not clearing Dune 2. Definitely a sigh of relief in Burbank.

This is also why I said the Pixar studio is still their most consistent and didn’t deserve to be lumped in with the broader Disney slump as easily. Soul, Luca and Turning Red were all very good movies (whether or not they were anyone’s favourites, they were good) and Elemental was one of their only success stories last year.