Animaniac93-98
Well-Known Member
I see Disney took my suggestion to do a 30th anniversary re-release of Lion King this summer. 
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Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs
- Thread starter Disney Analyst
- Start date
Interesting piece from Variety this morning on box office numbers -- https://variety.com/2024/film/news/box-office-opening-weekend-why-does-it-matter-1236033313/
It reiterates the 2.5x profitability rule:
"So the rule of thumb is that studios need movies to gross 2.5 times their production budgets to climb out of the red."
And even suggests that this number is an overestimate for some notable recent releases:
"“The Fall Guy” cost $140 million and has grossed $165 million worldwide. But sources suggest it has to reach $275 million-$300 million to turn a profit. The Warner Bros. sci-fi prequel “Furiosa,” which carries a $168 million price tag, has generated $144 million. Yet insiders say it requires roughly $350 million to $375 million to get into the black. (A Warner Bros. spokesperson disputes this, saying “Furiosa” has a lower breakeven point.)"
Those statements would mean that The Fall Guy and Furiosa only need ~2.2x to be profitable and Warner even disputes that the Furiosa number is too high at that level.
It reiterates the 2.5x profitability rule:
"So the rule of thumb is that studios need movies to gross 2.5 times their production budgets to climb out of the red."
And even suggests that this number is an overestimate for some notable recent releases:
"“The Fall Guy” cost $140 million and has grossed $165 million worldwide. But sources suggest it has to reach $275 million-$300 million to turn a profit. The Warner Bros. sci-fi prequel “Furiosa,” which carries a $168 million price tag, has generated $144 million. Yet insiders say it requires roughly $350 million to $375 million to get into the black. (A Warner Bros. spokesperson disputes this, saying “Furiosa” has a lower breakeven point.)"
Those statements would mean that The Fall Guy and Furiosa only need ~2.2x to be profitable and Warner even disputes that the Furiosa number is too high at that level.
BrianLo
Well-Known Member
Thanks, when I ran the numbers comparing all of Disney’s output this rang true. Largely movies were for sure profitable at 2.5 and there’s a large grey zone around 2.2+. That’s why I sort of snuck Apes into the profitability band the other day when it crossed 2.3. What we know is they almost for sure are profitable post theatrically at 2.5X and a typical tentpole almost for sure isn’t under 2X.
It’s also why you had Disney/other sources indicating profitability for the likes of Elemental or Mermaid earlier than people felt they should have been.
Some notable exceptions in the opposite extreme are Illumination/Dreamworks that save money in budgets, but have ‘normal’ marketing spends compared to Disney animated films. These films really need to push towards the more hardy 3X as was being used here last year. They’ll often spend the same in marketing as the film costs, which works well for them. Ultimately they still need to make a lot less than the average Disney animated budget in actual numbers thanks to that upfront savings.
As an aside I’m so thankful this article is about Paramount, Universal and WB so the usual impropriety talking point can’t be trotted out.
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TalkingHead
Well-Known Member
Sony Pictures Buys Alamo Drafthouse
Alamo Drafthouse Cinemas has sold to Sony Pictures Entertainment but will continue to operate its theaters under the brand name
variety.com
Disney Irish
Premium Member
This doesn't mean much to me, its only 35 theaters. Alamo is considered more a niche local chain rather than a nationwide chain like Regal or AMC.Sony is like the anti-Disney at this pointSony Pictures Buys Alamo Drafthouse
Alamo Drafthouse Cinemas has sold to Sony Pictures Entertainment but will continue to operate its theaters under the brand name
It would be like if Disney expanded the El Capitan theater into a few more cities.
TalkingHead
Well-Known Member
Obviously wouldn’t do that when you’ve got all your eggs in the streaming subs basket. Who’s to say the Alamo brand won’t be expanded? If a studio believes there’s any money in the future of theatrical, it’s a smart move.
Disney Irish
Premium Member
As I understand it Alamo was on the verge of closing all their theaters later this year. So Sony got a deal for pennies on the dollar. If that day comes when Sony expands Alamo then I'll believe it. But until then this just seems like a Studio trying to prevent a niche exhibitor from closing rather than some major future expansion plan.
I wonder if they'll reopen the ~5 theaters that just closed a week ago or just leave that be. We lost ours in that culling, although I've never been there -- it's a good 30 mins away.
It’s not just Disney Sony is pretty much the Anti- every other studio… Sony has said from day one… they have no interest in streaming… theatrical is their number one priority… now they are putting their money where their mouth isSony is like the anti-Disney at this pointSony Pictures Buys Alamo Drafthouse
Alamo Drafthouse Cinemas has sold to Sony Pictures Entertainment but will continue to operate its theaters under the brand name
So what’s everyone thinking? Will Inside Out 2 hit $85m+, to become the best opening weekend of 2024?
I think the outlook is good…I feel there is an excitement in the air for Inside Out 2… with the good scores on Rotten Tomatoes…that should help carry it through the weekend
Tha Realest
Well-Known Member
Disney Irish
Premium Member
Well it was suppose to lead into a Midnight Sons movie, so don't know how critical it is if that is still happening. I suppose they could just go right into Midnight Sons instead.
Animaniac93-98
Well-Known Member
Deadline had reported that after marketing costs, The Fall Guy was in the $225 million to $240 million range.
That would put the number it needs to gross to reach profitability much higher
Regardless, it's a major money loser for Universal which I was not expecting after the pre-release hype
CinematicFusion
Well-Known Member
It should be a huge hit.
The film is wise enough to keep going with what the original film did so well.
BrianLo
Well-Known Member
Variety is referring to post theatrical profitability. Sort of what it needs to make money in the first year.
Initial PVOD/home revenue/streaming licensing fees seem to be heavily correlated to how well a movie does financially upfront. So that's why there is a bit of a range for the box office, that's much lower than the actual total film costs upfront. Usually double the revenue is made in the back end when a movie does quite poorly, and it can shrink to about 50% of the box office gross for the huge blockbusters. It does provide a lot of upside to movies generally, but they still have to do something upfront.
A film like the Flash last year may have taken home 115 million in box office revenue, but in the back end there was 50 million in home entertainment and 85 million in TV and streaming rights.
BrianLo
Well-Known Member
South Korea is certainly a good news story. Elemental was absolutely carried by that market. Inside Out 2 could have a ton of upside there.
Again... Disney... pay attention to South Korea. A part of your P&R is built to be moved around the world for example.
I think this movie is a destined hit!