A Spirited Perfect Ten

[PhotoDave219]

I like to say that we are all blind men trying to describe an elephant, everyone has a perspective on different parts but no one can see the whole thing.

I have no firm confirmations on attraction lineups but the Indy ride has not been on any of the plausible plans I've heard. And a wide range of budget figures have been thrown out with different scopes, $3b isn't impossible but it's on the high end of what I've been whispered...

Good analogy. Alas, I'm hearing its a very large elephant.

We both seem to agree that Indy isn't happening.

 

[MotherOfBirds]

Why does it seem like TDO is adamantly opposed to Indy? I've heard rumors here and there for close to a decade about Indy coming to WDW and all the fans leap at it like dogs for a bone while management is playing hard to get.

 

[George]

Like attendance.

Total attendance due to number of games played yes. But not average attendance. Last year, the NHL averaged 17,502 fans per game, the NBA 17,826 and MLS 19,148 (source: memory, OK- it looks like 2011 was the first time MLS surpassed the NBA and NHL in average attendance - http://www.businessinsider.com/chart-mls-surpasses-nba-and-nhl-in-attendance-2011-11 and it has been ahead in that metric every year since I believe). So far this year the average attendance is up to 20,979 (in large part thanks to Orlando). This is important because more than any other sport, soccer is better live. So far this year the high average is Seattle at 40,236 (they play in Century Link, no soccer specific stadium necessary when you continually draw like that), low average is 14,458 (DC United), and the median is 20,048 and 20,025 (20 teams so I just looked at the average attendance of the 10th (Real Salt Lake) and 11th team (Sporting Kansas City) - here I looked up MLS 2015 season on wikipedia and some weirdo put together an attendance table). MLS does have a built in advantage in that Seattle and Orlando play in football stadiums and NYCFC in Yankee stadium (this summer has to suck for the ground crew). There are 3 MLS teams that have largish soccer specific stadia (Toronto, LA Galaxy, and NYRB) in the 27-30,000 range. Then there are around a half dozen teams that play in stadia near the 20K mark that are at 95-100% capacity and a half dozen teams that play in stadia near the 20K mark that are 70-80% capacity (the 14-18K averages).

TV viewership is far lower than the other sports if you just look at MLS. I think it is averaging around 240K viewers per game on ESPN2, FS1, and Unimas this year. You can watch all the games live if you buy the MLS streaming package and they've seen a considerable uptick in these sales the last couple of years. I'm sure sales aren't what say MLB streaming packages are, but the league makes good money from these. Fox, ESPN, and Unimas did pay a chunk of change for MLS rights over the next 8 years. The hope is that regular time slots (Friday night - Unimas, Sunday night - ESPN2 and FS1) will help. The league has never really had regular time slots before. They really hurt their TV rating average this year by showing a couple of midweek, Wednesday night games with little or no advertising. I believe 7 people watched these.

If we are just talking about the popularity of the sport, the men's and women's national teams are both huge draws in big tournaments. People also tune into the EPL on NBC and the NBC family of stations Saturday morning, Sunday morning, and Monday afternoon the rest of the year. Also, MLS has a competitor. NASL is not the official second tier in the U.S. USL Pro is. NASL (Cosmos, Tampa Bay Rowdies, Ft. Lauderdale Strikers, Edmonton, etc.) is trying to compete with MLS. Most think the minimum salary increase, new TV package, and the partial knee capping of the league by stealing Minnesota in a couple of seasons will eventually spell the end of the NASL, but our local team the Indy 11 still sells out 12K or so a game and has their own local TV coverage. I should note, with the exception of the Cosmos and Minnesota, the other NASL teams don't typically draw this well.

Anyway, MLS is stable and doesn't show any sign of shrinking like the NASL did (it never went away, but it did whither to almost non-existence). The true concern of many is that it seems impossible to have a stable woman's league that doesn't lose money.

I'll see if I can find it but I read a trenchant article a few years ago that made the point that after the NFL, everything is essentially a niche sport. It started out by pointing out that NFL preseason games outdrew the World Series. For the record, I'm not claiming soccer is not an unstoppable juggernaut. It does have enough of a following to survive. It doesn't really matter to me where it ranks relative to the other sports so long as I can attend games and watch games on TV from time to time.

If someone put a gun against my head I could name every MLS, NHL, NBA, NFL, and MLB team if you gave me a few minutes to gather myself and get used to having pants full of tinkle water. Also, @Steel City Magic mentioned the Pittsburgh River Hounds which floored me. What's next, the Carolina Railhawks or Rochester Rhinos?

Sorry for the tangent.

 

[PhotoDave219]

Total attendance due to number of games played yes. But not average attendance. Last year, the NHL averaged 17,502 fans per game, the NBA 17,826 and MLS 19,148 (source: memory, OK- it looks like 2011 was the first time MLS surpassed the NBA and NHL in average attendance - http://www.businessinsider.com/chart-mls-surpasses-nba-and-nhl-in-attendance-2011-11 and it has been ahead in that metric every year since I believe). So far this year the average attendance is up to 20,979 (in large part thanks to Orlando). This is important because more than any other sport, soccer is better live. So far this year the high average is Seattle at 40,236 (they play in Century Link, no soccer specific stadium necessary when you continually draw like that), low average is 14,458 (DC United), and the median is 20,048 and 20,025 (20 teams so I just looked at the average attendance of the 10th (Real Salt Lake) and 11th team (Sporting Kansas City) - here I looked up MLS 2015 season on wikipedia and some weirdo put together an attendance table). MLS does have a built in advantage in that Seattle and Orlando play in football stadiums and NYCFC in Yankee stadium (this summer has to suck for the ground crew). There are 3 MLS teams that have largish soccer specific stadia (Toronto, LA Galaxy, and NYRB) in the 27-30,000 range. Then there are around a half dozen teams that play in stadia near the 20K mark that are at 95-100% capacity and a half dozen teams that play in stadia near the 20K mark that are 70-80% capacity (the 14-18K averages).

TV viewership is far lower than the other sports if you just look at MLS. I think it is averaging around 240K viewers per game on ESPN2, FS1, and Unimas this year. You can watch all the games live if you buy the MLS streaming package and they've seen a considerable uptick in these sales the last couple of years. I'm sure sales aren't what say MLB streaming packages are, but the league makes good money from these. Fox, ESPN, and Unimas did pay a chunk of change for MLS rights over the next 8 years. The hope is that regular time slots (Friday night - Unimas, Sunday night - ESPN2 and FS1) will help. The league has never really had regular time slots before. They really hurt their TV rating average this year by showing a couple of midweek, Wednesday night games with little or no advertising. I believe 7 people watched these.

If we are just talking about the popularity of the sport, the men's and women's national teams are both huge draws in big tournaments. People also tune into the EPL on NBC and the NBC family of stations Saturday morning, Sunday morning, and Monday afternoon the rest of the year. Also, MLS has a competitor. NASL is not the official second tier in the U.S. USL Pro is. NASL (Cosmos, Tampa Bay Rowdies, Ft. Lauderdale Strikers, Edmonton, etc.) is trying to compete with MLS. Most think the minimum salary increase, new TV package, and the partial knee capping of the league by stealing Minnesota in a couple of seasons will eventually spell the end of the NASL, but our local team the Indy 11 still sells out 12K or so a game and has their own local TV coverage. I should note, with the exception of the Cosmos and Minnesota, the other NASL teams don't typically draw this well.

Anyway, MLS is stable and doesn't show any sign of shrinking like the NASL did (it never went away, but it did whither to almost non-existence). The true concern of many is that it seems impossible to have a stable woman's league that doesn't lose money.

I'll see if I can find it but I read a trenchant article a few years ago that made the point that after the NFL, everything is essentially a niche sport. It started out by pointing out that NFL preseason games outdrew the World Series. For the record, I'm not claiming soccer is not an unstoppable juggernaut. It does have enough of a following to survive. It doesn't really matter to me where it ranks relative to the other sports so long as I can attend games and watch games on TV from time to time.

For the record, if someone put a gun against my head I could name every MLS, NHL, NBA, NFL, and MLB team if you gave me a few minutes to gather myself and get used have pants full of tinkle water. Also, @Steel City Magic mentioned the Pittsburgh River Hounds which floored me. What's next, the Carolina Railhawks or Rochester Rhinos?

Sorry for the tangent.

Thank for you putting things is a more fair and appropriate context, rather than being someone who simply says something outrageous and "facts are facts"

 

[PhotoDave219]

Why does it seem like TDO is adamantly opposed to Indy? I've heard rumors here and there for close to a decade about Indy coming to WDW and all the fans leap at it like dogs for a bone while management is playing hard to get.

They arent opposed to it. They're just not going to drop in a 15-20 year old clone of an exisiting attraction.

 

[Steel City Magic]

Im sorry, average attendance for the Pittsburgh riverhounds is around 2,791 per home game, while attendance for the pittsburgh penguins has been more than 6x that per game and sold out for YEARS. Popularity, when it comes to physical attendance, really does depend on frequency of games played and size of stadium. Average attendance only really counts for the size of the stadium. If you play 3-5 games a week at 17,000 attendance compaired to 35,000 once a week, that's 51-85k a week average to 35k. Also to take into account is the league itself, and size of the market. The US womens team is going to have more fans from around the US than the riverhounds will have pittsburgh fans. You can't compare the US soccer team to the new york yankees # wise. If thats the case average attendance for the US soccer team cant even compare to average attendance for all of US hockey (17k x #of teams > 35k). You have to compare the sports at the same levels. Thats like saying professional curling has higher average attendance than high school football so curling is more popular than footbal. Soccer really doesn't come close to any of the top 4 sports in the US as of yet. I saw people get mildly excited for the world cup last year for a week, and that was about it.

 

[wogwog]

Mighty coincidental.

Remember the praise TDO was giving guests early on with Nextgen when the bands failed or something else associated? "It is a known issue."

 

[ford91exploder]

if the USA has survived many recessions, I dont think the chinese cant.
after all, they have all the infrastructure and production...

The difference is in China major economic disruptions usually end with the government in power during the crisis being removed with extreme prejudice and their heads displayed on pikes as a warning to the 'new' government.

 

[ford91exploder]

If Disney doesn't want the public to know these things, they've truly failed. Indeed, it's pretty hard to build something in China without the public knowing you're dealing with communists. The public ain't that dumb.

As long as the Kardashians and 'The Bachelorette' is on TV most simply don't care even if it has the potential to upend their world.

 

[ford91exploder]

Makes you wonder if this is the real reason they started to invest heavily in WDW and Disneyland lol.


they will probably change the "MADE IN CHINA" to "MADE IN INDIA"

Interestingly enough many bits of machine tools which once said 'made in china' now say 'Made in India' and interestingly enough quality of the 'Made in India' bits of tooling are FAR higher than those made in china, Cost more but are definitely WORTH IT. Might have something to do with the Indian workers are paid better and India's millennia old tradition of fine metalworking.

 

[ford91exploder]

When it comes to superhero movies, Marvel has nothing to worry about. It may be brash and arrogant but they're also right.

DC/Warner can't seem to get their crap together.

Hmm, Ant Man - somehow the trailers do not inspire me

 

[71jason]

New topic, asking for friends ... I know a post alluded to this last Winter, but I forget from whom and I can't find it to follow up.

Has anyone heard any rumblings about the monorail bars staying open until 2:00? Done deal? Just a test or permanent? When?

ETA: Ok, found the post I was thinking of. @TheVisionarySoul can you share any more yet?

 

[ford91exploder]

Meh to each his own..
it's not an issue of hiding something it's an issue of what happens when more and more things become prohibited. Today you have nothing to hide but tommorow? Anyway this thread is not the place for discussion of the sheep and the wolf.

Or something is made Illegal retroactively and now they have all the evidence they need to convict you, Yes 'Bills of Attainder' ie retroactive laws are theoretically unconstitutional but several have been signed into law by the current and past occupant of the WH. And there was nary a peep from the supreme court.

 

[ford91exploder]

Okay folks, way off-topic but what the hell is happening on Wall Street?

China + Greece

 

[MichWolv]

Why does it seem like TDO is adamantly opposed to Indy? I've heard rumors here and there for close to a decade about Indy coming to WDW and all the fans leap at it like dogs for a bone while management is playing hard to get.

I hope it doesn't come. The ride system is cloned in Dinosaur, which I actually enjoy more than Indy anyways. If they're going to bring an Indy ride, I vote for something new and different. Even if they do use the ECV, use it differently.

 

[Steel City Magic]

Or something is made Illegal retroactively and now they have all the evidence they need to convict you, Yes 'Bills of Attainder' ie retroactive laws are theoretically unconstitutional but several have been signed into law by the current and past occupant of the WH. And there was nary a peep from the supreme court.

 

[George]

Im sorry, average attendance for the Pittsburgh riverhounds is around 2,791 per home game, while attendance for the pittsburgh penguins has been more than 6x that per game and sold out for YEARS. Popularity, when it comes to physical attendance, really does depend on frequency of games played and size of stadium. Average attendance only really counts for the size of the stadium. If you play 3-5 games a week at 17,000 attendance compaired to 35,000 once a week, that's 51-85k a week average to 35k. Also to take into account is the league itself, and size of the market. The US womens team is going to have more fans from around the US than the riverhounds will have pittsburgh fans. You can't compare the US soccer team to the new york yankees # wise. If thats the case average attendance for the US soccer team cant even compare to average attendance for all of US hockey (17k x #of teams > 35k). You have to compare the sports at the same levels. Thats like saying professional curling has higher average attendance than high school football so curling is more popular than footbal. Soccer really doesn't come close to any of the top 4 sports in the US as of yet. I saw people get mildly excited for the world cup last year for a week, and that was about it.

You are aware that the RiverHounds play in the USL? That's like AA baseball. Thus my shock at their mention.

 

[Steel City Magic]

Haha I was not.

You are aware that the RiverHounds play in the USL? That's like AA baseball. Thus my shock at their mention.

 

[Mike S]

I hope it doesn't come. The ride system is cloned in Dinosaur, which I actually enjoy more than Indy anyways. If they're going to bring an Indy ride, I vote for something new and different. Even if they do use the ECV, use it differently.

I can't really understand this because then I look at all the Omnimovers and boat rides that already exist at WDW. They clearly don't have a problem cloning ride systems. Then there's also Spidey and Transformers down the road. Indy and Dinosaur would have no problem coexisting if Disney decided to do so. @PhotoDave219's point makes more sense.

They arent opposed to it. They're just not going to drop in a 15-20 year old clone of an exisiting attraction.

 

[Nubs70]

So, as I went to bed last night the markets in China were in total freefall. Apparently, close to three trillion in 'value/wealth' were lost. A great story (I think it was Bloomberg, don't have it handy) on China basically losing their middle class.

Today, what happens? Our markets open like everything is normal. And then we start dropping and ... and ... I guess the NYSE has the same technology issues that a tech rube like myself (to quote friends on the PML) because suddenly trading stops. We are now one hour and 25 minutes into the halt.

If ''it's just a glitch'' works for others, then why not use it on Wall Street?

I love the naive who don't understand the amount of puppeteering that goes on in our world.

I have to look into it more, but here is what I see at this point.

The Shanghai market have been sliding for about 3 weeks losing 30%. Today, it slid an additional 6%. Reports are that many have been buying shares on margin. Here is where I see a link that may be just coincidence.

The slide began around the time of the Baha Mar implosion. The result being the State owned construction walked away from a State financed (Chinese Export Import Bank). This action undercuts the credibility of China as a full faith business partner. If China is not willing to fight for their own investment, how can I, as a business partner, fight for the viability of a project, thus my investment?

The Baha Mar action became a signal to large institutional investors that China is not reliable therefore, agency theory dictates I must sell shares.

Back to buying on margin, institutional sales began the drop. Drops in prices are triggering margin calls and the sell off accelerates. The halt in trading is an effort to break the accelerating selling momentum. The halt in the US a glitch? I have doubts.

This is just a thought....