A Spirited Perfect Ten

[AEfx]

Hey buddy! Yes, record attendance. But what are the "feelings" that all these folks leave with? Particularly if Diagon Alley was part of their vacation. Hefty price increases with nothing new verses what Uni is doing.

We will see how many of this wave of record attendees return to WDW. Or if Uni has made an impression. The future is a wonky thing to predict.

That's an apt observation. They are still riding the ends of the "Disney Mommies" era, who the entire "MM+" business was squarely aimed at - the insane guests who when surveyed told Disney that the absurd level of planning they are now virtually requiring was a good idea. Their kids are rapidly growing up.

Are those kids who are growing up in a world where Universal is actually a rival to Disney, and not just that little park down the road you might spend one day at, going to remember the quaint offerings at WDW, or the "OMG when I was a kid I visited Hogwarts Castle!" and be excited to bring their kids to Uni. Sad to say, but the "romance" of WDW that we grew up with as kids of this almost holy, mythical place based on just the fact that it existed can't be counted on today, when you can see a 3-D movie at any cinema in the country, and animatronics in shopping malls.

I think some folks that haven't observed park development long enough to see the creep that has been happening. I mean, I cannot overstate how insane it would have sounded even five years ago to think that Universal would make the gains it has. It makes me think of how before the Disney purchase of Lucasfilm, anyone who said they thought that Episodes VII-IX would be made, let alone feature the original cast, would have been put under psychiatric hold. At the least they would be patted on the head and told "as soon as we find out the moon is really made of cheese".

Disney may always be the market leader because of sheer scale (4 parks, 2 water parks, amount of hotels, etc.), but it's sad that they decided to be content with only that and not also remaining the unquestionable gold-standard premier theme park experience in the world.

Instead of bringing up the level of the parks to retain that world-class status, they decided to spend $2 billion on tagging people like cattle in effort to redistribute them into less-than-stellar offerings and hopes of them spending a few more cents on the dollar because of the novelty and weak-mind trick of you not having to physically hand over a payment method for your churros and mouse ears.

It's a sad state of affairs when WDW has bet it's future on putting folks on a militaristic schedule and playing cheap manipulation tactics in order to make a buck. Even when you take the Rose Colored Glasses of Nostalgia off, that's not the WDW many of us grew up with.

 

[AEfx]

It's also pretty easy for AP holders to visit both resorts in one trip like I'm doing at this moment. I had to get a new Disney pass but that's it. The rest of your post is spot on.

That's undoubtedly true. I used to do that as well. At one point, I had it down to about $800 for me to spend a week in Orlando and go to the parks every day. I also spent a ton on merchandise - while the "locals" who are the typical Disneyland annual passholder may not, those of us who had AP's at WDW were a different breed - who enjoyed putting Disney park merch all over our homes and mostly ate on property.

I think folks who live far away yet were AP holders (the 1,000 mile club) are just getting a lot fewer and further between. We were never typical, but with the prices of AP's skyrocketing, it's just not feasible for a lot of us anymore since we are also concurrently visiting less because of the lack of development in the parks.

 

[Mike S]

We all talk about this like it is some sort of game. Comcast is not playing games. They are spending billions of $$$. They wouldn't be doing that unless they see some sort of opportunity. Wall Street may be clueless, but the theme park community, whether pro or con Disney, knows the winds of change are blowing in O-Town.

 

[Mike S]

That's undoubtedly true. I used to do that as well. At one point, I had it down to about $800 for me to spend a week in Orlando and go to the parks every day. I also spent a ton on merchandise - while the "locals" who are the typical Disneyland annual passholder may not, those of us who had AP's at WDW were a different breed - who enjoyed putting Disney park merch all over our homes and mostly ate on property.

I think folks who live far away yet were AP holders (the 1,000 mile club) are just getting a lot fewer and further between. We were never typical, but with the prices of AP's skyrocketing, it's just not feasible for a lot of us anymore since we are also concurrently visiting less because of the lack of development in the parks.

I guess it helps that I'm also someone who doesn't buy merchandise all that much. About 99% of my in park purchases are just because I need some food and/or drinks (especially at WWoHP. Can't get enough of that Butterbeer Ice Cream ). That might change when Nintendo Land opens

 

[ParentsOf4]

While I guess I pretty much have to admit I agree with your overall assessment, I have little hope of WDW's fortunes to change anytime soon, that article buries the lead to me.

It may indeed be later and long-term, but eventually Disney World is going to pay a very high price for the lack of investment and declining vacation experience we've seen.

To be clear, the pace of construction at WDW will start to pick up in the coming decade. After the last decade, it can't get much slower.

However, it's wishful thinking that Disney needs to build because of Kong. IMO, the "Universal Damage" is done; Universal is genuinely now worth a 2-day visit for the non-pixieduster. But it's also not more than that for the non-doom-and-gloomer. Kong will make Universal a better resort but it won't hurt WDW.

WDW needs to build again because it's beginning to have a serious crowd problem. Since I like graphs , the following provides a rough idea of per park attendance since the opening of WDW:

Only over the last few years has the per park attendance started to approach prior peak levels.

Considering WDW's 2 oldest theme parks are its highest capacity parks, WDW's theme parks are becoming oppressively overcrowded, which will hurt repeat business if Disney doesn't take the steps necessary to address the problem.

Arguably, at least 2 of WDW theme parks are in the worst shape they've ever been. However, neither Kong or Nintendo or anything other than a third Universal theme park are going to force Disney to build.

WDW's growing theme park attendance will.

 

[AEfx]

I guess it helps that I'm also someone who doesn't by merchandise all that much. About 99% of my in park purchases are just because I need some food and/or drinks (especially at WWoHP. Can't get enough of that Butterbeer Ice Cream ). That might change when Nintendo Land opens

That's just it...folks can try to be dismissive of Nintendo, but the fact that Universal has them and Disney doesn't is potentially a massive a blow for Disney in terms of merchandising, enough of one to register on the Potter scale.

Nintendo and Disney have an almost creepy level of similarity in their fanbases - children, and nostalgic adults. Both groups are the "whales" of the merchandising industry, who consume the bulk of it. They also both share a very similar "family friendly all ages" reputation (something which again expands Universals hand here).

Now Universal has yet one more jewel in it's quickly expanding crown that is a perfect match for theme park rides AND has massive merchandising opportunities. Universal has proven that they will throw the money needed to make a "WOW" experience. And it won't take the better part of a decade before anyone gets to experience it!

That's why, ultimately, I think Avatar will be seen as a major mis-step for Disney with AK. Even if by some miracle Disney breaks it's current streak and doesn't cost-reduce everything down to mediocrity, it's just not a property that is going to bring people in the gates that aren't already there.

The Avatar film was a "cultural moment" that won't be repeated - it was the right movie at the right time and made the money it did because people wanted to experience the technology, which is now ubiquitous and available constantly. The first movies with sound did really well, too - not because of the quality, but because of the novelty. It has next to no name brand value (I saw Avatar toys at a fast food place a few weeks back - but not that Avatar, the other one), not a single breakout character or personality, and generated almost no merchandise even at it's brief height.

While I have hope they will kick it with Star Wars, I have to say...I have a bad feeling about this. Disney already rakes in so much with the paltry Star Wars Weekends offering, that I fear that they will just water them down further, extend those offerings throughout the year, and any place building will be on the level of Mickey's Birthdayland. I want to be much more optimistic, but there really is no indication that we should have much optimism. And given Disney's track record, I'll believe Pixar Place when I see it.

 

[EPCOTCenterLover]

As it stands now, I'll be spending two days at Universal. That's two less at Disney than before. It will add up if more folks make that same decision.

 

[EPCOTCenterLover]

And some good friends are going to Orlando in the Fall just to see the Harry Potter attractions. They are not going to Disney at all.

 

[FigmentJedi]

I actually wonder if they pull a "wreck it ralph" type electrical main theme that connects the game lands.

It's called Super Smash Brothers.

 

[AEfx]

I actually wonder if they pull a "wreck it ralph" type electrical main theme that connects the game lands.

Electrical?

Wrong trade.

I think it will be more a Plumbing thing.

Warp Zones anyone?

 

[Mike S]

That's just it...folks can try to be dismissive of Nintendo, but the fact that Universal has them and Disney doesn't is potentially a massive a blow for Disney in terms of merchandising, enough of one to register on the Potter scale.

Nintendo and Disney have an almost creepy level of similarity in their fanbases - children, and nostalgic adults. Both groups are the "whales" of the merchandising industry, who consume the bulk of it. They also both share a very similar "family friendly all ages" reputation (something which again expands Universals hand here).

Now Universal has yet one more jewel in it's quickly expanding crown that is a perfect match for theme park rides AND has massive merchandising opportunities. Universal has proven that they will throw the money needed to make a "WOW" experience. And it won't take the better part of a decade before anyone gets to experience it!

That's why, ultimately, I think Avatar will be seen as a major mis-step for Disney with AK. Even if by some miracle Disney breaks it's current streak and doesn't cost-reduce everything down to mediocrity, it's just not a property that is going to bring people in the gates that aren't already there.

The Avatar film was a "cultural moment" that won't be repeated - it was the right movie at the right time and made the money it did because people wanted to experience the technology, which is now ubiquitous and available constantly. The first movies with sound did really well, too - not because of the quality, but because of the novelty. It has next to no name brand value (I saw Avatar toys at a fast food place a few weeks back - but not that Avatar, the other one), not a single breakout character or personality, and generated almost no merchandise even at it's brief height.

While I have hope they will kick it with Star Wars, I have to say...I have a bad feeling about this. Disney already rakes in so much with the paltry Star Wars Weekends offering, that I fear that they will just water them down further, extend those offerings throughout the year, and any place building will be on the level of Mickey's Birthdayland. I want to be much more optimistic, but there really is no indication that we should have much optimism. And given Disney's track record, I'll believe Pixar Place when I see it.

After this past week of amazing news I have to say I'm with you. I won't be getting excited for Star Wars/Pixar until we finally know what we're getting. I'm absolutely sick of Iger's Star Wars teasing as well. Either give the full announcement already or STHU.

 

[FigmentJedi]

Nintendo and Disney have an almost creepy level of similarity in their fanbases - children, and nostalgic adults. Both groups are the "whales" of the merchandising industry, who consume the bulk of it. They also both share a very similar "family friendly all ages" reputation (something which again expands Universals hand here).

And don't forget, Mickey Mouse and Mario are pretty much the same guy. Short dudes with high pitched voices wearing red clothes, white gloves, large shoes that are the most recognizable characters in their respective media that were created as a result of a copyright snafu that derailed original plans, in Nintendo's case, an inability to secure the rights to Popeye was their Oswald moment that lead them to create Donkey Kong.

Only way to bash this point further in would be if Universal erected a statue of Miyamoto holding hands with Mario.

 

[Mike S]

Electrical?

Wrong trade.

I think it will be more a Plumbing thing.

Warp Zones anyone?

I find it funny how some time ago this was a sight in Magic Kingdom's hub.

First thing I thought of was a Warp Pipe. And now Universal has Nintendo.

 

[AEfx]

However, it's wishful thinking that Disney needs to build because of Kong. IMO, the "Universal Damage" is done; Universal is genuinely now worth a 2-day visit for the non-pixieduster. But it's also not more than that for the non-doom-and-gloomer. Kong will make Universal a better resort but it won't hurt WDW.

WDW needs to build again because it's beginning to have a serious crowd problem. Since I like graphs , the following provides a rough idea of per park attendance since the opening of WDW:

Only over the last few years has the per park attendance started to approach prior peak levels.

Yeah, I don't think Kong is the tipping point. The tipping point was Potter 2.0. Not only in terms of the "numbers side", but also the final blow to anyone being able to claim that WDW offered the superior theme park ride experience. Say what you will about it, but just the Hogwarts Express alone is more exciting for theme park development than any other single attraction WDW has added this century.

When I look at that graph, I see two things - one, wow, there is some empirical evidence of the failure of AK, and two, WDW has missed decades of opportunity for real growth.

 

[GoofGoof]

To be clear, the pace of construction at WDW will start to pick up in the coming decade. After the last decade, it can't get much slower.

However, it's wishful thinking that Disney needs to build because of Kong. IMO, the "Universal Damage" is done; Universal is genuinely now worth a 2-day visit for the non-pixieduster. But it's also not more than that for the non-doom-and-gloomer. Kong will make Universal a better resort but it won't hurt WDW.

WDW needs to build again because it's beginning to have a serious crowd problem. Since I like graphs , the following provides a rough idea of per park attendance since the opening of WDW:

View attachment 92397

Only over the last few years has the per park attendance started to approach prior peak levels.

Considering WDW's 2 oldest theme parks are its highest capacity parks, WDW's theme parks are becoming oppressively overcrowded, which will hurt repeat business if Disney doesn't take the steps necessary to address the problem.

Arguably, at least 2 of WDW theme parks are in the worst shape they've ever been. However, neither Kong or Nintendo or anything other than a third Universal theme park are going to force Disney to build.

WDW's growing theme park attendance will.

I think this is dead on. What will potentially kill Disney in Orlando really has nothing to do with what Universal is doing. What will kill them is poor guest satisfaction. Things like...waiting 3 hours for a 1:45 Frozen ride. Or lowering the quality but raising the price of food. They need to grow the parks to keep people happy and coming back. It's not about beating Universal, it's really about catching up to their own past.

 

[AEfx]

I find it funny how some time ago this was a sight in Magic Kingdom's hub.

First thing I thought of was a Warp Pipe. And now Universal has Nintendo.

LOL, and let's not forget - Disney has always had a relationship with Nintendo, and when Nintendo finally decided to do an about-face and team up with a theme park, I think it's very telling that they went with Universal. Of course, since this came out of the blue we don't yet know if Disney even wanted them, or if talks even happened - but given how it was only a number of years ago WDW was testing Nintendo technology in the parks (a pre-cursor to MM+), as well as their extremely similar audience base...I could see if it was a choice why Nintendo would go with Universal, for the same exact reasons that JK Rowling did.

One thing I'm excited about is that they will assuredly have another Nintendo World there. I only hope it's part of CityWalk and not inside the park - but in either case, it's an exciting possibility.

 

[Mike S]

LOL, and let's not forget - Disney has always had a relationship with Nintendo, and when Nintendo finally decided to do an about-face and team up with a theme park, I think it's very telling that they went with Universal. Of course, since this came out of the blue we don't yet know if Disney even wanted them, or if talks even happened - but given how it was only a number of years ago WDW was testing Nintendo technology in the parks (a pre-cursor to MM+), as well as their extremely similar audience base...I could see if it was a choice why Nintendo would go with Universal, for the same exact reasons that JK Rowling did.

One thing I'm excited about is that they will assuredly have another Nintendo World there. I only hope it's part of CityWalk and not inside the park - but in either case, it's an exciting possibility.

After this announcement a second Nintendo World location in CityWalk would make a lot of sense. They could also put one out in Hollywood if they wanted.

 

[AEfx]

I think this is dead on. What will potentially kill Disney in Orlando really has nothing to do with what Universal is doing. What will kill them is poor guest satisfaction. Things like...waiting 3 hours for a 1:45 Frozen ride. Or lowering the quality but raising the price of food. They need to grow the parks to keep people happy and coming back. It's not about beating Universal, it's really about catching up to their own past.

Or the fact that no one has walked into the MK and to Fantasyland without seeing massive ugly construction since before the turn of the decade because they move so slowly on everything but increasing admission prices.

Or being told that you can't cross the bridge to see the "Beauty and the Beast Castle" you saw in the commercial that sold you on spending thousands to visit because you don't have a magic bracelet with a reservation months in advance.

Or using all these militaristic pre-planning tools to plan a trip and it raining at the hour on the day you picked three months out to ride Splash Mountain, or not getting to see Fantasmic! because the night you have pre-scheduled gets cancelled because of wind, and you only have two days left which are full of reservations at two other parks.

These things aren't going to affect the 1% of the 1% in the Disney online fan community as much - you can see Fantasmic next time, and you probably are aware of the ridiculousness surrounding one fast food meal, but for a first time visitor? Once they see that "all FP+ are not created equal" (no, you probably didn't need a FP+ for Aladdin's Magic Carpets), or, aren't part of that program at all and see the very obvious divide between the guests who "have" and "have not" that never existed on such a visible level at WDW before, it's not going to give that "magical feeling" it's so well known for - and what is largely responsible for repeat guests.

 

[marni1971]

I'm helping three UK families of first time visitors from work to plan their trips.

Two want to "go to Disney" but won't sacrifice Universal or SeaWorld for it.

The third doesn't care for Disney but can't wait for Universal.

Naturally I'm trying to squeeze the first two into a ten day whirlwind trip. And trying to persuade the third to at least try WDW.

Hardly scientific I know but interesting non the less. Especially since all have children.

 

[Mike S]

LOL, and let's not forget - Disney has always had a relationship with Nintendo, and when Nintendo finally decided to do an about-face and team up with a theme park, I think it's very telling that they went with Universal. Of course, since this came out of the blue we don't yet know if Disney even wanted them, or if talks even happened - but given how it was only a number of years ago WDW was testing Nintendo technology in the parks (a pre-cursor to MM+), as well as their extremely similar audience base...I could see if it was a choice why Nintendo would go with Universal, for the same exact reasons that JK Rowling did.

One thing I'm excited about is that they will assuredly have another Nintendo World there. I only hope it's part of CityWalk and not inside the park - but in either case, it's an exciting possibility.

I just remembered this as well.
http://wdwmagic.com/attractions/mar...arrives-at-downtown-disney-starting-today.htm
Promoting the Wii U at Downtown Disney but then going with Universal for a real theme park deal. Let's not forget Epic Mickey being a Wii exclusive. Disney always did seem to have some kind of relationship with Nintendo so what changed? My guess is the same as yours which is that it could be the same reason why Rowling went with Uni. Could also be that Nintendo execs saw how much Uni put into Harry Potter and simply thought "these are the guys to trust our characters with."