A Spirited Perfect Ten

[gmajew]

Maelstrom being redone is coming WAY faster than I want it.

LOL Lee. Yeah would have preferred a different use or story but I was never a fan of the original ride either.

 

[ChrisFL]

Sadly, "Disney [does not] Need to Be Afraid of King Kong."

As the article's author readily acknowledges:

Just a few miles away from Universal Orlando, Disney isn't exactly setting the world on fire the way that Universal has with Harry Potter additions to both of its Universal Orlando theme parks. Disney's attendance is at record levels, but a good chunk of that is the handiwork of Universal's booming popularity drawing more visitors to the area.​

For many Orlando vacationers, Universal now has successfully hijacked 2 days from Disney. It's an awesome accomplishment for Universal. Still, until Universal becomes a 3 or 4-day resort, new Universal attractions mean vacationers will simply skip Universal's less popular attractions rather than steal more business from WDW.

Hey, with a paragraph like this discussing revenue gains, the writer is after my heart:

Universal Orlando's attendance isn't quite at Disney World's level, but it's closing the gap. Universal parent Comcast reported a 34 percent year-over-year surge in revenue for its theme parks in its latest quarter. That compares to a more modest 6 percent uptick for Disney's theme parks. These metrics include the performance of Comcast and Disney theme parks outside of Florida, but third-party reports find Universal Orlando's overall growth climbing a lot faster than Disney World's in recent years.​

However, it's wishful thinking to write "Sooner or later, Disney is going to have to address the 800-ton gorilla in the room."

The unfortunate reality for those of us who want to see real improvements at WDW is that even if Kong draws more vacationers to Orlando, they are still going to spend 2 days at Universal and the rest of their vacations at WDW, giving Disney little reason to rush anything at WDW.

I wish it were not the case but, sadly, I fear it is.

But as we know, attendance isn't the only number we need to be worried about. What's hotel occupancy and merchandise sales doing at both resorts?

 

[GoofGoof]

But as we know, attendance isn't the only number we need to be worried about. What's hotel occupancy and merchandise sales doing at both resorts?

The last few quarters Disney's domestic hotel occupancy has been around 90%. It's logisitically pretty hard to get much higher than that. For Uni I'm sure hotel occupancy is also strong, but they are only a part owner of the hotels and its not really a major driver for them. Merchandise sales are a little harder to quantify. If you include food and special events (up charges) Disney seems to be doing OK there too. Universal has Potter merchandise that probably sells more than anything Disney has. Maybe not the mouse ears. I'd love to think someone out in CA is looking at WDW and saying "we've got a problem", but it doesn't seem that way.

 

[ChrisFL]

The last few quarters Disney's domestic hotel occupancy has been around 90%. It's logisitically pretty hard to get much higher than that. For Uni I'm sure hotel occupancy is also strong, but they are only a part owner of the hotels and its not really a major driver for them. Merchandise sales are a little harder to quantify. If you include food and special events (up charges) Disney seems to be doing OK there too. Universal has Potter merchandise that probably sells more than anything Disney has. Maybe not the mouse ears. I'd love to think someone out in CA is looking at WDW and saying "we've got a problem", but it doesn't seem that way.

Yeah, I briefly forgot about Disney's upcharge events which are a goldmine for them

 

[GoofGoof]

Yeah, I briefly forgot about Disney's upcharge events which are a goldmine for them

You have to factor in the different demographic of visitor. WDW is a lot more geared towards once in a lifetime or infrequent guests. If you just look at recurring visitors, Uni is cleaning up on merchandise. They keep things fresh. But for a first time or infrequent visitor to WDW they are likely buying some combination of mouse ears, WDW t-shirts, photopass for $150, character meals and maybe even paying for MVMCP or a wishes desert party or whatever event goes on while they are there. A lot of regular WDW visitors aren't doing much of that stuff, but it adds up for those who do. Those are all high profit margin sales. Part of the whole getting more dollars out of each guest plan.

 

[AEfx]

Small point, but didn't Trekkies pretty much of invent the concept of buying every associated piece of merch and traveling across the country because of your love of a franchise?

Yes, though when you really look at the history - it's because they needed to travel in order to find a group large enough, as Trek was an obscure taste at the time of the invention of the conventions.

Universal Orlando's attendance isn't quite at Disney World's level, but it's closing the gap. Universal parent Comcast reported a 34 percent year-over-year surge in revenue for its theme parks in its latest quarter. That compares to a more modest 6 percent uptick for Disney's theme parks. These metrics include the performance of Comcast and Disney theme parks outside of Florida, but third-party reports find Universal Orlando's overall growth climbing a lot faster than Disney World's in recent years.​

However, it's wishful thinking to write "Sooner or later, Disney is going to have to address the 800-ton gorilla in the room."

The unfortunate reality for those of us who want to see real improvements at WDW is that even if Kong draws more vacationers to Orlando, they are still going to spend 2 days at Universal and the rest of their vacations at WDW, giving Disney little reason to rush anything at WDW.

While I guess I pretty much have to admit I agree with your overall assessment, I have little hope of WDW's fortunes to change anytime soon, that article buries the lead to me.

First and foremost, how absolutely wrong the groupthink was over that the "Orlando theme park market is saturated" because AK failed to draw in additional guests to the resort instead of just siphoning off guests from the other existing parks. Anyone who suggested it wasn't was laughed at, because folks accepted it so readily. What this shows primarily is that yes, if you build it - they will come. The problem wasn't the market, the problem was AK.

Aside from that, I have to note another "crazy town" reality that the article points out - that a financial magazine could be factually stating that Universal is "closing the gap" is an ASTONISHING statement. I mean, even those of us who have always liked Universal would have said even just a few years ago (even post-Potter Phase 1) that they would never even be directly comparable.

I think the sad reality that you stated is very much true - because as folks have been saying for awhile, Disney is not in the Theme Park business anymore, they are in the Resort business, at least in Orlando. The company shows no desire to compete as Theme Parks and is just content at maintaining the status quo. They so completely missed the golden opportunity they had with Star Wars - the deal was signed three years ago, they had plenty of time to get ready for the juggernaut that is coming in December.

What I am surprised about is the thought that folks are doing both Disney and Universal on the same trip. I can't remember the last person I heard was going to both. Because of the pricing structure, it ends up costing so much just in admission fees (if you spend a week in Orlando and do both, your per day cost times each party member goes up quite a bit because you aren't taking advantage of the "more days/pay less" scale) that it's out of the budget of so many.

While the "I go to Disney every year" folks seem to still be going, most folks I talk to who go to Orlando are spending 3 days or so at Universal, doing something like Sea World, etc., and just "hanging out" for the remaining days at the pool, etc. They often consider doing both, but going by the WDW website (which basically makes it seem as if staying on-site is the only option) and nothing "gee wow I have to see that!" there, the cost is just too high to do both and folks pick the new/fun and not Disney again.

Apparently my experience isn't typical - but I still find that surprising with the economy the way it is, that there are so many folks who are doing both in the same vacation, unless they are from the UK, etc. where folks tend to take longer vacations to Orlando.

 

[AEfx]

We all know that even if we do not like the speed it is all moving Disney is moving ahead in things. avatar (not my favorites) is looking like it may be way better then any of us thought. Maelstrom being redone, Star Wars and Pixar land are coming just not as fast as we on these boards want it.

Or as fast as the public demands it, which is why Universal (who once was declared even by fans to never even approach WDW attendance levels) is "closing the gap". That was UNTHINKABLE even just a few years ago. And now it's the reality.

I doubt MK gets any new additions for a min of 5 years because other parks are getting the attention and hey have some major work to continue to fix. Plus they did just get their biggest upgrade even if we don't like it here in park history.

I actually like NFL, but the fact remains that an E-ticket has not been added to MK since 1992 - another five years makes it almost THREE DECADES. That's just something they should be ashamed of as the flagship park of the flagship resort.

It's insane to think that, as of today, the last E-ticket was added 23 years ago, which was more than half the park's lifetime ago. MK was 20 when it got Splash Mountain - and 23 years later, they haven't built anything nearly on that level there.

I don't know how even the most ardent fanboy can not find that fact simply gut churning.

 

[Disneyhead'71]

@gmajew, when you say, "not as fast as we on this board want" it makes us sound unreasonable. The last E Ticket the MK got was 23 years ago. 4 years before my college freshman was born. The last E Ticket built anywhere on property, my high schooler was in kindergarten.

Yes, I think that pace is unacceptable. Maybe you believe I'm unreasonable.

 

[LieutLaww]

This year I will be in Orlando for 2 weeks and will be doing both Disney and Universal, next year it will be one and the year after the other. Coming from the UK as well.

 

[ParentsOf4]

But as we know, attendance isn't the only number we need to be worried about. What's hotel occupancy and merchandise sales doing at both resorts?

Disney's domestic hotel occupancy for the last 2 quarters has been at 89%, a number it hasn't bested since the third quarter of 2009. Available rooms nights was down 1%, so an apples-to-apples comparison with last year means hotel occupancy was still an impressive 88%.

Domestic Per Capita Guest Spending (PCGS) was up 7%, but that number is slightly deceptive because Disney changed its annual pass pricing in a clear attempt to weed out low-spending repeat visitors. Still, Per Room Guest Spending (PRGS) was up a strong 6.2%.

 

[Disneyhead'71]

To put things in perspective, when WDW added their last major attraction, this girl was in Kindergarten.

 

[Phil12]

As an example... What if some told you to build a ride that took people to the moon. Impractical you say... But look at how wed conceptualized that into the disneyland and the magic kingdom attractions? And later mission space.

Creativity... Think outside the lines

But, those rides were terrible!

That's what made the Early Imagineer's legendary.

Terrible rides?

 

[WDWGuy]

@gmajew, when you say, "not as fast as we on this board want" it makes us sound unreasonable. The last E Ticket the MK got was 23 years ago. 4 years before my college freshman was born. The last E Ticket built anywhere on property, my high schooler was in kindergarten.

Yes, I think that pace is unacceptable. Maybe you believe I'm unreasonable.

The pace is absolutely ridiculous. But sadly, as record attendance continues...there is no business reason to rush.

 

[Disneyhead'71]

The pace is absolutely ridiculous. But sadly, as record attendance continues...there is no business reason to rush.

Hey buddy! Yes, record attendance. But what are the "feelings" that all these folks leave with? Particularly if Diagon Alley was part of their vacation. Hefty price increases with nothing new verses what Uni is doing.

We will see how many of this wave of record attendees return to WDW. Or if Uni has made an impression. The future is a wonky thing to predict.

 

[Voice of Disney sanity]

Yes just look at McDonald's ...decade after decade of massive growth without improving until suddenly....bam Now the damage is done and they can't figure out how to fix it

 

[Phil12]

We will see how many of this wave of record attendees return to WDW. Or if Uni has made an impression. The future is a wonky thing to predict.

Call Miss Cleo:

 

[CDavid]

However, it's wishful thinking to write "Sooner or later, Disney is going to have to address the 800-ton gorilla in the room."

The unfortunate reality for those of us who want to see real improvements at WDW is that even if Kong draws more vacationers to Orlando, they are still going to spend 2 days at Universal and the rest of their vacations at WDW, giving Disney little reason to rush anything at WDW.

I wish it were not the case but, sadly, I fear it is.

It may indeed be later and long-term, but eventually Disney World is going to pay a very high price for the lack of investment and declining vacation experience we've seen. Many of the recent big-scale, cutting-edge, innovative attractions which wow the audience are Universal - and not Disney - attractions. This comes at a time when the experiences Disney has given us skew very sharply toward the young child demographic - and the Magic Kingdom (in particular) already has something of an image problem that it is a park for kids, rather than the park for families ("kids of all ages") that it is actually supposed to be. Ten or twenty years from now when those kids are grown, you don't want that (false) impression to have been inadvertently reinforced by the current lack of investment. When you stuff toons and blue aliens into your permanent world's fair and zoological parks, respectively, it just reinforces the mistaken impression.

That doesn't mean Walt Disney World needs more thrill rides. There's room for that, but just as Universal is reportedly learning, both parks need family centered attractions of the type which only Disney was once known for - Pirates, Haunted Mansion, Spaceship Earth, and so on. No matter how much momentum you have, you cannot coast forever. The Biblical teaching that you reap what you sow applies in business too; What is Walt Disney World ultimately going to reap from the (serious lack of) sowing they're doing now?

Maelstrom being redone is coming WAY faster than I want it.

Thank You. Again, there are some posts which need to be liked more than once.

To put things in perspective, when WDW added their last major attraction, this girl was in Kindergarten.

She's still got time to bring her own Kindergarten children to see the opening of a Star Wars land at the Studios.

Probably can use her social security check to visit the next World Showcase country to be added...

 

[AEfx]

This year I will be in Orlando for 2 weeks and will be doing both Disney and Universal, next year it will be one and the year after the other. Coming from the UK as well.

That goes along with what I was thinking - the ones doing that are not from the US. In the US, folks rarely take a vacation longer than a week to WDW (I've heard the average was 5 days, but that was awhile back). When you price a week-long vacation in Orlando, and you price 4 days at WDW and 3 days at Universal, on-site as they both seem to make it sound like is virtually necessary, vs. a week at either, the costs just go up so high you are better off to take two separate vacations.

I think we'd also find that a lot of folks just find 7-days straight of theme parks a bit too much, which you essentially have to do if you do both resorts to get your $ worth. Since it seems so many folks from UK, etc., take 2-week vacations, it is much easier to see how they can do both practiaclly.

Yes just look at McDonald's ...decade after decade of massive growth without improving until suddenly....bam Now the damage is done and they can't figure out how to fix it

You know, when I made my last post I was thinking McDonalds. That's a good analogy to the road WDW is on. When you look at the explosive growth of Wendy's and Subway, even though McDonalds is still #1 just out of sheer volume, no one ever thought the market would be split the way it has.

The pace is absolutely ridiculous. But sadly, as record attendance continues...there is no business reason to rush.

At the moment, you'd be correct - but it goes back to the bad analysts within the company who tried to cover up the real reasons AK was a failure in bringing new guests to WDW. "The market is saturated" was their excuse for the failure, not what we can plainly see the issue was (a park with a dual identity that didn't do either very well, with a subject matter that just isn't compelling when their are regional zoo's across the nation that do it much, much better, if not so artificially pretty).

That's when WDW became all about the "resort" and not the "theme park experience". It was a flimsy excuse from the beginning, particularly when you remember that the economy was so good at the time the government was mailing citizens checks because the country had too much surplus money.

The truth is, if WDW hadn't lied to itself about the Orlando market, WDW could have greatly expanded and brought that audience in who is clearly out there. Instead of dumping 2 Billion bucks into a scheme to eek a few more cents out of the visitors who already come, they could be making a heck of a lot more money today if they had continued to develop the theme parks. We'd have a half-dozen more hotels, instead of them spending millions on DVC properties to get folks to sign up for a program that financially only really makes sense for a select few.

At this point, though, this huge gap in development just feeds itself. The infrastructure of the resort. transportation, etc. is busting at the seams, because essentially all they have done is maintain it and they have let so many things fall so far behind that they couldn't handle the additional guests that are clearly out there even if they wanted to. Now it would cost so much to really bring the resort up that it likely will never happen.

It would be like if Apple had just stopped with the iPod. Hey, revolutionary product in it's day, if you've got an MP3 player, it was probably an iPod...why bother taking a risk making iPhone or iPad? Basically, Disney became satisfied with a certain level of success, and stopped reaching for more because an internal failure was covered up instead of honestly analyzed. It was more important to save face than learn from the situation.

 

[Mike S]

That goes along with what I was thinking - the ones doing that are not from the US. In the US, folks rarely take a vacation longer than a week to WDW (I've heard the average was 5 days, but that was awhile back). When you price a week-long vacation in Orlando, and you price 4 days at WDW and 3 days at Universal, on-site as they both seem to make it sound like is virtually necessary, vs. a week at either, the costs just go up so high you are better off to take two separate vacations.

I think we'd also find that a lot of folks just find 7-days straight of theme parks a bit too much, which you essentially have to do if you do both resorts to get your $ worth. Since it seems so many folks from UK, etc., take 2-week vacations, it is much easier to see how they can do both practiaclly.




You know, when I made my last post I was thinking McDonalds. That's a good analogy to the road WDW is on. When you look at the explosive growth of Wendy's and Subway, even though McDonalds is still #1 just out of sheer volume, no one ever thought the market would be split the way it has.




At the moment, you'd be correct - but it goes back to the bad analysts within the company who tried to cover up the real reasons AK was a failure in bringing new guests to WDW. "The market is saturated" was their excuse for the failure, not what we can plainly see the issue was (a park with a dual identity that didn't do either very well, with a subject matter that just isn't compelling when their are regional zoo's across the nation that do it much, much better, if not so artificially pretty).

That's when WDW became all about the "resort" and not the "theme park experience". It was a flimsy excuse from the beginning, particularly when you remember that the economy was so good at the time the government was mailing citizens checks because the country had too much surplus money.

The truth is, if WDW hadn't lied to itself about the Orlando market, WDW could have greatly expanded and brought that audience in who is clearly out there. Instead of dumping 2 Billion bucks into a scheme to eek a few more cents out of the visitors who already come, they could be making a heck of a lot more money today if they had continued to develop the theme parks. We'd have a half-dozen more hotels, instead of them spending millions on DVC properties to get folks to sign up for a program that financially only really makes sense for a select few.

At this point, though, this huge gap in development just feeds itself. The infrastructure of the resort. transportation, etc. is busting at the seams, because essentially all they have done is maintain it and they have let so many things fall so far behind that they couldn't handle the additional guests that are clearly out there even if they wanted to. Now it would cost so much to really bring the resort up that it likely will never happen.

It would be like if Apple had just stopped with the iPod. Hey, revolutionary product in it's day, if you've got an MP3 player, it was probably an iPod...why bother taking a risk making iPhone or iPad? Basically, Disney became satisfied with a certain level of success, and stopped reaching for more because an internal failure was covered up instead of honestly analyzed. It was more important to save face than learn from the situation.

It's also pretty easy for AP holders to visit both resorts in one trip like I'm doing at this moment. I had to get a new Disney pass but that's it. The rest of your post is spot on.

 

[Disneyhead'71]

We all talk about this like it is some sort of game. Comcast is not playing games. They are spending billions of $$$. They wouldn't be doing that unless they see some sort of opportunity. Wall Street may be clueless, but the theme park community, whether pro or con Disney, knows the winds of change are blowing in O-Town.