Do you think that Disney world will reclose its gates due to the rising number of COVID cases in Florida and around the country?

[CaptainAmerica]

As someone who lives in CT, I can tell you that is false. I personally know 6 people who died from COVID. None were in a nursing home. One was 36 with no known health concerns. The other 5 were my friends’ parents, all of whom were between 55 and 65 years old.

We locked down. We wear masks. And we are largely able to lI’ve our lives now with 80-85% of parents choosing to send their kids to school in September. And my friends and their parents have stopped dying.

I had COVID, wore my goddam mask and stayed away from people, and am unaware of getting anyone (other than my wife...) sick. But I hope you’re happy in Fantasyland with such dumb-o epidemiological views.

"Don't you think you're taking it a little bit literally, Dwight?"

Obviously I was being flippant when I said "all of the vulnerable people are already dead." I was making a directional statement, I wasn't going for nuance and precision.

 

[havoc315]

Stabilized a bit, No decline at all in the past four days

(narrator - actual data shows a significant decline in the past four days)

source Arizona Dpet. of health as of this posting

You seem to have a problem with math. I said there has been no huge decline in the last 4 days:
On July 16th, there were 3453 hospital admissions for Covid in AZ. Today, there are 3,084 admissions. A 10.6% decline.
Not huge: The doctor cited in the article indicated the ICU was really at 120% of their real capacity. So if you extrapolate the change since the article was written, they are now "only" 108% of their capacity.

 

[legwand77]

That's simply false. I know an intenstivist in a Fort Lauderdale Hospital -- They have a 10 bed ICU. All 10 beds are full and they converted the PACU as extra ICU space. In his 10 years at the hospital, they had only hit 10 patients in the ICU on a handful of occasions. The census was usually 4-6 patients in the ICU at a time. Rarely over 8. When I spoke to him, they had 18 ICU patients -- so 80% over their true capacity. (they were getting ready to convert part of the orthopedic floor if they needed to add more).

The article I cited, discussed an Arizona ICU over capacity.

Antecdote aside, considering it true, that would be one of the smaller/smallest hospitals in the Ft. Lauderdale , maybe Kindred Hospital, whose capacity in ICU is now 12.5% remaining in ICU, very busy yes ,expected as they are in the area with the worst outbreak. For context the largest hospital in Broward County, Memorial, ICU capacity is 20%. Only one hospital Westside is at 0% capacity in the ICU and there current wait time in the ER is 9 minutes.

 

[legwand77]

You seem to have a problem with math. I said there has been no huge decline in the last 4 days:
On July 16th, there were 3453 hospital admissions for Covid in AZ. Today, there are 3,084 admissions. A 10.6% decline.
Not huge: The doctor cited in the article indicated the ICU was really at 120% of their real capacity. So if you extrapolate the change since the article was written, they are now "only" 108% of their capacity.

Roundabout way of admitting now there was a decline in four days but whatever works for you.

Also you are conflating a particular ICU number with overall statewide numbers , a common error.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

Reported ICU statistics are largely irrelevant anyways. Some hospitals are using their ICUs as their COVID quarantine wards and they're sticking ALL coronavirus patients in them even if they're not in need of "intensive care."

Ventilator capacity is probably more useful.

 

[havoc315]

Reported ICU statistics are largely irrelevant anyways. Some hospitals are using their ICUs as their COVID quarantine wards and they're sticking ALL coronavirus patients in them even if they're not in need of "intensive care."

Ventilator capacity is probably more useful.

No. Speaking from personal experience and contact with multiple clients who are intensivists treating Covid patients, that's all entirely totally false.

 

[legwand77]

So based an anecdotal evidence, not say it is untrue, but it is by definition anecdotal

 

[Miss Bella]

Reported ICU statistics are largely irrelevant anyways. Some hospitals are using their ICUs as their COVID quarantine wards and they're sticking ALL coronavirus patients in them even if they're not in need of "intensive care."

Ventilator capacity is probably more useful.

No. Speaking from personal experience and contact with multiple clients who are intensivists treating Covid patients, that's all entirely totally false.

There is really no way to know what every hospital in the country is doing. How my hospital manages Covid patients could be completely different from how a hospital two miles away manages it.

 

[chrisvee]

Yes, that's exactly what he's saying. When people show you who they are, believe them.

excellent advice when combined with out of the box forum tools

No. Speaking from personal experience and contact with multiple clients who are intensivists treating Covid patients, that's all entirely totally false.

it‘s a goalpost shift not an attempt to reveal truths

 

[Miss Bella]

You seem to have a problem with math. I said there has been no huge decline in the last 4 days:
On July 16th, there were 3453 hospital admissions for Covid in AZ. Today, there are 3,084 admissions. A 10.6% decline.
Not huge: The doctor cited in the article indicated the ICU was really at 120% of their real capacity. So if you extrapolate the change since the article was written, they are now "only" 108% of their capacity.

What does AZ have to do with Walt Disney World anyway.

 

[Disstevefan1]

There have been a rise in cases, filling up of hospitals, possibly more deaths...

Will Disney close?

Unless the government of FL says...maybe. I really don't know.

WDW tells Florida what’s what not the other way around.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

There is really no way to know what every hospital in the country is doing. How my hospital manages Covid patients could be completely different from how a hospital two miles away manages it.

I very deliberately chose the word "some."

 

[rle4lunch]

Rather than looking up and posting memes (that was a good one) , might want to look at the data, here it is

View attachment 485355

View attachment 485356

This is why us engineers like graphs so much. Easy to understand.

 

[havoc315]

Roundabout way of admitting now there was a decline in four days but whatever works for you.

Also you are conflating a particular ICU number with overall statewide numbers , a common error.

Not conflating anything. I don't know that ICU's number change in the last 4 days -- It may have gotten worse while the rest of the state got a little better. It may have improved even more than the state. So applied the average. If you happen to know what happened in that ICU.... go ahead and post it.

Ahh yes -- there has been a slight decline. In fact, if you look at my very first post of the day today:
Here is what I said in my very first post today:

More good news is that the cases have leveled off and even slightly started to decline in Arizona, with hospitalizations starting to potentially decline.

So yes -- congratulations -- You caught me being totally consistent. You caught me "admitting" something that I "admitted" lo

 

[Miss Bella]

That's simply false. I know an intenstivist in a Fort Lauderdale Hospital -- They have a 10 bed ICU. All 10 beds are full and they converted the PACU as extra ICU space. In his 10 years at the hospital, they had only hit 10 patients in the ICU on a handful of occasions. The census was usually 4-6 patients in the ICU at a time. Rarely over 8. When I spoke to him, they had 18 ICU patients -- so 80% over their true capacity. (they were getting ready to convert part of the orthopedic floor if they needed to add more).

The article I cited, discussed an Arizona ICU over capacity.

That is a very small hospital if you only have 10 ICU beds.

 

[havoc315]

That is a very small hospital if you only have 10 ICU beds.

No...... Quite typical for a mid-sized hospital. The entire state of Florida has 5,000 ICU beds in about 200 hospitals. So the average is around 25 per hospital. But that's concentrated mostly in large urban hospitals that might have hundreds of ICU beds. The median is probably right around 10.

 

[havoc315]

What does AZ have to do with Walt Disney World anyway.

Not sure. But legwand wanted to make a big deal about the slight decline in hospitalizations in Arizona... as somehow meaning Florida is just fine.

 

[Heppenheimer]

That is a very small hospital if you only have 10 ICU beds.

10 ICU beds is about typical for a mid-sized hospital.

I would also find it highly unlikely that a hospital would house non-critical COVID+ patients in an ICU, unless the rest of the hospital was also filled. That's just a huge waste of resources.

 

[havoc315]

So based an anecdotal evidence, not say it is untrue, but it is by definition anecdotal

I work with dozens of clients across multiple hospitals. I won't claim to know what's happening in every hospital and every ICU in America. But I've seen enough personally to get a fairly accurate general sense.
My only interest is in understanding the truth and hopefully preserving lives. I rely on my personal experience, the official data, reliable experts and scientific studies, and reliable news reporting of firsthand accounts. I don't cherry pick, I don't get selective. I don't "move goal posts."
I happily will repeat good news and sadly comment on bad news.

 

[havoc315]

10 ICU beds is about typical for a mid-sized hospital.

I would also find it highly unlikely that a hospital would house non-critical COVID+ patients in an ICU, unless the rest of the hospital was also filled. That's just a huge waste of resources.

Correct -- an ICU is required to staff nurses, critical care/pulmonologists (aka intensivists, and respiratory therapists on a certain ratio. Housing more people in an ICU would mean having to bring in a lot more staff.
Then of course, there are all the extra monitors, etc. But that's nothing compared to the cost of staffing.

You can point to any bed in the hospital and say, "that's now a surge ICU bed." But it's only ICU if it has the appropriate staff. And that staffing is spread very very thin.